It’s frequently said that the Israeli military has to fight the Gaza war to prevent more October 7th style attacks by Hamas. That’s just not true though. Here’s why.
First, the Israeli military has powerful air and ground forces. Hundreds of advanced combat aircraft, plus a thousand military drones. It has hundreds of tanks and heavy artillery, thousands of motorised fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers. All its units have advanced targeting and night vision gear that Hamas lacks.
All Palestinian armed groups combined and Hezbollah, at their height, between them, had some drones, lots of automatic rifles, grenades and RPGs (anti-tank weapons). Plus some rockets which were mostly ineffective even before Israel developed the Iron Dome system of multiple anti-missile defences.
For instance from 2004 to 2014 10,790 rockets were fired into Israel from Gaza. Just thirty-two Israelis and five foreign nationals were killed by them.
Israel also has massive intelligence resources. Entire units of Israeli intelligence who can talk Arabic and pass for Palestinians. Drones and reconnaissance planes flying over Gaza constantly. It has signals intelligence (listening in on phone and radio conversations). The US shares satellite intelligence images with it. It had CCTV cameras all round Gaza with IDF observers watching them all day (1).
IDF intelligence had detailed reports on Hamas’ plans 18 months before October 7th. And long before that, in 2017, Netanyahu gave testimony to a Knesset committee outlining Hamas plans fairly similar to what happened on October 7th. IDF border observers had repeatedly alerted their superiors to Gazan armed groups training in open air camps (complete with mock tanks, houses, and people pretending to be hostages) and to them pointing at the border fence while looking at maps (2) – (4).
Egyptian intelligence also repeatedly passed on warnings to the Israeli government. Including in a phone call by the Egyptian Security Minister to Netanyahu ten days before the attack (5).
Yet just 600 IDF were left guarding bases on the Gaza border, and most of the rest of the IDF were allowed to go on holiday, all at the same time (6).
We’re told this was because the Israeli government and military and intelligence heads “thought Hamas was deterred”. But this is a ludicrous story. They didn’t need to know when or even if Hamas would carry out the plans they knew it had trained for in order to leave 5% or 10% of the IDF’s 169,500 full time strength guarding the Gaza border at all time. Or the same again on standby 24 hours in shifts ready to back them up if an attack came. That was an obvious and easy precaution that could be taken (7).
The story is also that they thought the real threat was in the West Bank. This again, is nonsense, since the IDF’s military strength outclasses all its enemies (and definitely every Palestinian armed group) by so much that they could easily prevent any attack of any significant size in both the West Bank and Gaza, and still have plenty left in case Hezbollah did anything.
So since they could have prevented October 7th easily, the only logical conclusion is that they allowed it because they wanted it to happen to give a pretext for what Netanyahu and politicians to the right of him had talked of for decades – taking the whole West Bank and Gaza and East Jerusalem.
“This country is all ours” as now Israeli ambassador to the UK and then Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Tzipi Hotovely put it in 2015. The first election manifesto of Netanyahu’s Likud party in 1977 said “between the Sea and the Jordan there will only be Israeli sovereignty”. The same year British historian Max Hastings met a younger Benjain Netanyahu. Bibi told him “In the next war we've got to get the Palestinians out of the West Bank for good”. Israeli cabinet ministers like Belazel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir openly talk of getting rid of all Palestinians from Gaza, followed by the West Bank, where the IDF has already forced Palestinians out of their homes, and the Israeli government has said they can’t return for at least a year in some areas. And the IDF is demolishing their homes, as it has on a much larger scale in Gaza. Netanyahu says “implementation of the Trump plan for Gaza is a condition for ending the war”. That plan is to remove Palestinians from Gaza, though no other country is prepared to take most of them, so if the war and deliberate starvation continues, most will die (8) – (17).
The supposed need to defeat Hamas to prevent more October sevenths is just a pretext for this war to wipe Palestinians and any chance of a Palestinian state off the map. The constant talk of Hamas being “an existential threat” to Israel is nonsense as shown by how one sided every Gaza war has been.
The argument that they must be destroyed or removed from power forever because they are uniquely evil is made nonsense by the number of civilians and children killed by the IDF in Gaza. And from what many IDF soldiers and officers have told Israeli newspapers and magazines, mostly due to orders to kill any Palestinian they see in IDF military zones which now cover most of the strip. With the majority civilians, but counted as terrorists in IDF stats. The deliberate starvation of the entire population of Gaza is also undoubtedly an evil act.
And while Hamas murdering civilians on October 7th was certainly evil too, the worst horror stories have been admitted to be false by the IDF and the ZAKA first responders charity whose officers and volunteers respectively told them to the Israeli media. Reporters for the Israeli Haaretz newspaper talked to survivors in the kibbutzim these atrocities were meant to have happened in, and found that there weren’t enough children of the age claimed in kibbutz Be’eri for lots to have been tied together and burned alive. There were no babies hung from washing lines. No forty beheaded babies. No foetuses cut from the stomachs of pregnant women (18) – (19).
The majority of burned bodies were almost certainly due to IDF tank and helicopter fire, including hellfire missiles. Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev said in an interview with Medhi Hasan that the official figures on October 7th dead were reduced from 1,400 to around 1,200 after it was realised that 200 burned bodies were of Hamas gunmen, not Israelis (20) (watch linked interview from 6 minutes 37 seconds).
It seems unlikely 200 Hamas gunmen burned themselves alive. IDF officers have admitted ordering tanks to fire on houses containing both attackers and hostages. And IDF reservist evacuation unit members told Israeli TV of watching Israeli helicopters fire rocket after rocket into houses in kibbutz Be’eri. IDF investigations also found some hostages were killed by Israeli helicopter fire on vehicles they were in (21) – (23).
So there is no possible way to justify a war that would keep killing civilians as collateral damage in large numbers, let alone the actual Gaza war of mostly mass murder and deliberate starvation of civilians and children.
SOURCES
(1) = theguardian.org 17 Oct 2024 ‘‘I hate the night’ Life in Gaza amid the incessant sounds of war’ https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2024/oct/17/i-hate-the-night-life-in-gaza-amid-the-incessant-sounds-of-war
(2) = timesofisrael.com 5 Dec 2023 ‘More details unveiled of IDF intel on Oct. 7 plans, consults hours before Hamas attack’, https://www.timesofisrael.com/more-details-unveiled-of-idf-intel-on-oct-7-plans-consults-hours-before-hamas-attack/
(3) = timesofisrael.com 22 Dec 2023 ‘‘Frogmen, hang gliders, kidnapped Israelis’: Netanyahu described Hamas’s plans in 2017’, https://www.timesofisrael.com/frogmen-hang-gliders-kidnapped-israelis-netanyahu-described-hamass-plans-in-2017/
(4) = nbcnews.com 08 Oct 2024 ‘They were Israel's eyes on the border, but their warnings about Hamas went unheard’, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-observation-hamas-attack-soldiers-kidnapped-rcna174228
(5) = timesofisrael.com 09 Oct 2023 ‘Egypt intelligence official says Israel ignored repeated warnings of ‘something big’, https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-intelligence-official-says-israel-ignored-repeated-warnings-of-something-big/
(6) = timesofisrael.com 26 Feb 2024 ‘Only 600 Israeli soldiers were guarding Gaza border on October 7 — report’, https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/only-600-israeli-soldiers-were-gaurding-gaza-border-on-october-7-report/
(7) = aljazeera.com 11 Oct 2023 ‘How big is Israel’s military and how much funding does it get from the US?’ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/11/how-big-is-israels-military-and-how-much-funding-does-it-get-from-the-us ( NOTE – Al Jazeera’s source for this figure is the International Institute for Strategic Studies ‘Military Balance 2023’)
(8) = timesofisrael.com 21 May 2015 ‘Israel’s top diplomat tells colleagues ‘entire land is ours’’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/deputy-fm-tells-diplomats-the-whole-land-is-ours/
(9) = theguardian.com 09 May 2009 ‘The paradox of Israel's pursuit of might’ https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/may/09/israel-middle-east-max-hastings
(10) = timesofisrael.com 6 May 2025 ‘Smotrich says Gaza to be ‘totally destroyed,’ population ‘concentrated’ in small area’ https://www.timesofisrael.com/smotrich-says-gaza-to-be-totally-destroyed-population-concentrated-in-small-area/
(11) = timesofisraeel.com 03 Aug 2025 ‘On Temple Mount, Ben Gvir calls for Gaza takeover, ‘voluntary emigration’ of Palestinians’ https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/on-temple-mount-ben-gvir-calls-for-gaza-takeover-voluntary-emigration-of-palestinians/
(12) = timesofisrael.com 12 Jun 2025 ‘Cabinet ministers vow to annex West Bank, Gaza and more at far-right confab’, https://www.timesofisrael.com/cabinet-ministers-vow-to-annex-west-bank-gaza-and-more-at-far-right-confab/
(13) – Sky News 23 Feb 2025 ‘Tanks 'move into West Bank' after Israel orders troops to 'not allow' Palestinians to return’ https://news.sky.com/story/tanks-move-into-west-bank-as-israel-orders-troops-to-remain-for-a-year-and-not-allow-palestinians-to-return-13315597
(14) = BBC News 03 May 2025 ‘'I saved my ID card and my dog': Israel expands demolitions of West Bank refugee homes’ https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5ype8w6ynwo
(15) = haaretz.com 17 Jul 2025 ‘New Satellite Data Shows: Gaza Devastation Scale Greater Than Estimated, at Least 70 Percent of Buildings Leveled’ https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-07-17/ty-article-magazine/.premium/satellite-data-shows-at-least-70-percent-of-gaza-buildings-leveled/00000198-12de-d9c7-af98-7adffc8f0000
(16) =BBC News 18 Jul 2025 ‘Israel levelling thousands of Gaza civilian buildings in controlled demolitions’ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-33fccfbe-abcc-4af1-bdd2-632b2787cf59
(17) = timesofisrael.com 22 May 2025 ‘Netanyahu sets implementation of Trump’s Gaza relocation plan as new condition for ending war’ https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-implementation-of-trumps-gaza-relocation-plan-is-condition-for-ending-war/
(18) = Haaretz.com 04 Dec 2023 ‘Hamas Committed Documented Atrocities. But a Few False Stories Feed the Deniers, https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-12-04/ty-article-magazine/.premium/hamas-committed-documented-atrocities-but-a-few-false-stories-feed-the-deniers/0000018c-34f3-da74-afce-b5fbe24f0000
(19) = PBS / AP 22 May 2024 ‘How 2 debunked accounts of sexual violence on Oct. 7 fueled a global dispute over Israel-Hamas war’ https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-2-debunked-accounts-of-sexual-violence-on-oct-7-fueled-a-global-dispute-over-israel-hamas-war
(20) = https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=HD-yRuTasHU (watch from 6 minutes 37 seconds)
(21) = timesofisrael.com 233 Dec 2023 ‘IDF officer recounts ordering tank fire on Be’eri home during hostage standoff on Oct. 7’ https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-officer-recounts-ordering-tank-fire-on-beeri-home-during-hostage-standoff-on-oct-7/
(22) = jpost.com 05 Apr 2024 ‘IDF finds female Nir Oz resident likely killed by helicopter fire on October 7’ https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-795543
(23) = ABC News 06 Sep 2024 ‘Israeli forces accused of killing their own citizens under the 'Hannibal Directive' during October 7 chaos’ https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-07/israel-hannibal-directive-kidnap-hamas-gaza-hostages-idf/104224430
