The US and its allies and Russia are each arming their proxies in Syria, with both sides committing atrocities - only negotiations can avoid a Lebanese or Iraq style sectarian civil war across the Middle East

The atrocities in Syria are sickening, especially those against children, but both sides are committing them, including torture, killing civilians by targeting them and killing them as 'collateral damage' in indiscriminate artillery and suicide car bombing attacks (1).

The US and its allies keep arming the rebels and Russia keeps arming Assad's regime. If both sides continue to do this, rather than pushing for negotiations, then Syria, Lebanon and Iraq are likely to collapse into a long, bloody, civil war like that in Lebanon in the 1980s. Past military interventions in the Middle East have led to more civilians being killed instead of less.

The only military intervention in the Middle East that saved lives was the Iraqi Kurdistan no-fly zone established at the end of the 1991 Gulf War (which also involved an estimated 10,000 to 25,000 civilians killed by US bombing and US forces ordered not to intervene while Saddam's forces massacred Shia rebels and their families in Southern Iraq) (2) - (6)

After NATO went far beyond their Security Council mandate by using the Libyan no-fly zone for regime change, Russia and China won't approve another - and with Russia showing it's backing for Assad not only with arms but with a Russian fleet in a Syrian port, intervening without Russian approval could also mean World War Three (7).

The US and its allies are arming the rebels in Syria - and almost certainly extreme sectarian Sunni ones

The Saudi and Qatari monarchies are funding the Free Syrian Army with "wages" which are also being used by rebels to buy arms on the black market; as well as arming the 'Free Syrian Army' with the Obama administration providing co-ordination and intelligence. It is not clear how far US involvement goes, but it could be similar to that in Libya, where the Obama administration got the Saudis and Qataris to arm the Libyan rebels to keep the US profile low and allow it to be presented as an Arab solution to an Arab problem (despite the Arabs in question all being dictators or military rulers, most of whom also kill democracy protesters in their own countries). (8) - (11).

Former CIA officer Phillip Giraldi also says NATO is flying its own special forces trainers as well as arms and fighters from Libya to the Free Syrian Army's base in Turkey on the border with Syria, with plans for Turkish forces to invade and create a 'safe haven' in Northern Syria, supposedly to protect civilians, but probably also a base for rebel forces to carry out regime change from, as in Libya (12).

When the US and the Saudis co-operated to arm Libyan rebels, many of them were, like the Saudi monarchy, hardline Sunni extremists, some, like the former Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, allied to Al Qa'ida (13).

This resulted in the US and its allies - including the British government - aiding rebels who included people they had kidnapped and sent to Gaddafi for torture as suspected al Qa'ida sympathisers a few years previously (14).

This, like Saudi and CIA co-operation to arm, train and fund the most extreme Sunni fundamentalist factions among the Mujahedin in Afghanistan in the 1980s and the Taliban in the 1990s, was to ensure they would exclude Russian and Iranian influence by targeting Russian backed Uzbeks and Iranian supported Hazara, who are Shia (15) - (16) (for full details and sources on Saudi and Clinton administration co-operation to support the Taliban in the early and mid 1990s see this page and sources 57 - 68 on it)

Assad and his regime are mostly Alawites, a minority Shia sect; and allied to Shia ruled Iran and the Shia Lebanese Hezbollah. So it's likely that the Sunni rebels the US and Saudi are arming in Syria will include those sectarian extremists who can be guaranteed not to make peace with Assad too (17).

Evidence of this can be seen in the many suicide car bombings against government targets in Syria, similar to those carried out by Al Qa'ida elsewhere, including some targeting Shia shrines, similar to sectarian attacks mostly targeting Shia in Iraq from 2004 on (which also included bombings of Shia shrines and mosques). Hundreds of civilians have died in the Syrian bombings along with the Syrian army and intelligence targets (18) - (20).

Some Syrian rebels complain they have not had any supplies of heavy or advanced weapons - that isn't unusual either. In Afghanistan in the 1980s Pakistan's ISI were the conduit for US arms for the mujahedin - with CIA approval they armed Hekmatyar and other hardline Islamists, while less Islamists factions like Massoud's recieved only a handful of stinger missiles - and only at the end of the war (21) - (22).

Past actions of the US and it's allies show they that if they arm rebels or intervene they'll kill more civilians , not save them

As for western arms or intervention preventing a collapse into civil war, you can judge how likely that is from US occupied Iraq, where the US played divide and conquer by first backing Shia dominated paramilitaries like the Wolf Brigade to target Sunnis, then switching to paying the same Sunni militias they'd been fighting to target the Shia Madhi army and Sadrists. Sectarian bombings targeting Shia are still taking place regularly in Iraq (and despite American attempts to shrug this off as 'Iraq was always a mess' they only began after the 2003 invasion) (23) - (28).

As for saving civilians, Coalition forces - especially US military - often targeted them on orders, as in the April 2004 assault on Fallujah when eye-witnesses reported US snipers targeting civilians and ambulances, killing around 600 civilians, half of them women and children (29) - (30). The same happened in other Coalition offensives on entire towns and cities - including Samarra in October 2004 and Falluja again in November 2004 (31) - (32).

Coalition forces in Iraq - like NATO and the rebels it backed in Libya - also used heavy artillery, tanks, and air-strikes in assaults on entire towns and cities - something they call a war crime in Syria and called war crimes when Gadaffi's forces did it (33) - (34).

Or look at what happened when forces from NATO countries including the US, France, Italy and the UK intervened in Lebanon in 1982, with UN approval, when US forces immediately took sides in the war, carrying out air strikes and battleship shelling of Syrian positions in Lebanese villages, killing civilians and intensifying the war, before withdrawing two years later, with the civil war continuing with everyone involved committing atrocities till 1990 (35).

A month after the UN contingent arrived Israeli forces in Lebanon allowed fascist Christian Phalangist militias into the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps to massacre thousands of Palestinian civilians (35).

The fact that the UN forces didn't prevent this is not surprising since Bashir Gemayal, the head of the Phalangists and Lebanese Prime Minister, was also backed by the CIA (36).

After the UN force withdrew from Lebanon, the CIA carried out a car bombing attempt to assassinate a Shia cleric which killed more than 80 civilians (37) - (38). (The CIA also funded car bombings in Iraq in the 1990s by a group led by US protege and former assassin for Saddam Ayad Allawi.) Could the CIA today be up to old tricks in Syria?

Their current arming and support for other dictatorships that torture and kill unarmed protesters also show protecting civilians can't be the aim of the US and its allies in Syria

If the motive for intervention or arming rebels in Syria today was to save civilians NATO governments wouldn't still be arming and supporting the Bahraini, Saudi, Yemeni and Egyptian dictatorships and military regimes, who continue to jail, torture and kill democracy protesters.

At the height of the killing, which in Bahrain (with Saudi involvement) included police and snipers shooting unarmed protesters , ambulances and medics - and raiding hospitals to drag away the wounded, doctors and nurses for torture, some to death, a few arms licences were suspended by the British government, but soon sales went back to normal and continue (39) - (40).The Bahraini , Saudi, Yemeni and Egyptian delegations were all invited to arms fairs in London as usual (41).

Tear gas and other arms sales to Bahrain also continue to be approved by the Obama administration despite constant deaths from it's use in high concentrations in Bahrain. Obama has also sneakily decided not to report any arms sales valued at under $1 million , allowing the US to approve any amount of arms sales to murdering dictatorships without telling the media or congress so long as they're split up into small shipments (42) - (44).

US military aid to Egypt of $1.3 bn a year has been continued (with the decision having been explained as avoiding any loss of sales by US arms companies) despite Amnesty International reporting that torture and killings of civilians under the military regime not only continue but are even worse than under Mubarak (45) - (46).

In Yemen US and British military aid funding also continues along with arms sales, despite the US and British trained units loyal to the government there using sniper rifles, mortars, tanks and artillery to kill unarmed protesters over and over and over again. The value of US arms sales to Yemen has increased by 6 times during this, while British arms sales to Yemen doubled for 2011 compared to 2010 (47) - (55).(for more details on Yemen see the blog post on this link, scrolling down to sub-heading 'Yemen' and sources for it)

All this leaves the US government and its allies with no moral high ground from which to condemn Russia and China for arming Assad's dictatorship as it kills protesters and civilians.

The real motive of the US and its allies in Syria - Isolating Iran to prepare for a war of regime change there

Israeli academic, Gabriel Ben-Dor, the head of Security Studies at the University of Haifa says the real motive is "to isolate Iran even more by depriving it of its only major ally in the Middle East” and weaken the "to dismantle the axis of Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, and to somehow weaken this entire coalition " (56).

The war in Syria is between proxies of a US led alliance including Saudi Arabia on one side and a looser Russian and Chinese backed one that includes Iran, Syria and Lebanese Hezbollah. As with Iraq, Russia and China only back the latter to try to ensure they continue to get Iranian oil contracts which the US and its allies want to get for their own companies by carrying out "regime change" (57).

Syrian rebels are committing sectarian atrocities and killing civilians too

While the majority of civilian deaths in Syria are currently likely to be due to indiscriminate artillery fire by the Syrian army and killings by pro-government militias, the rebels are also killing civilians in atrocities including suicide car bombings, which have killed hundreds (58) - (59).

Human Rights Watch also report that rebel "Abuses include kidnapping, detention, and torture of security force members, government supporters, and people identified as members of pro-government militias, called shabeeha." as well as "executions by armed opposition groups of security force members and civilians." (60).

The German Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper reports Syrian opposition sources saying the Houla massacre was committed by Sunni rebels, with the victims being Alawites and Sunnis who had converted to become Shia, as well as a Sunni MP. (Many jihadist groups consider taking part in elections to by unIslamic and to be collaboration with the enemy.) The newspaper also says the opposition sources wish to remain anonymous because armed rebel groups have already killed opposition members who spoke out against an armed uprising (61).

Of course it's impossible to know whether this is the truth, or whether the first reports we heard of Sunnis massacred by Alawite government militias at Houla are ; killing civilians and children, whether with guns or knives, is still a sickening crime; and it doesn't mean Assad's forces haven't committed crimes ; but we know from past wars that we should not assume all claims by the rebels are true, or that they have committed no atrocities themselves.

It took Amnesty International several months to discover the story about Kuwaiti babies thrown from incubators by Iraqi troops in 1991 was false ; and similarly months to find out that some (though not all) of the Libyan rebels' claims about atrocities by Gadaffi's forces were false (e.g orders to rape all women, handing out condoms, using anti-aircraft weapons on civilians) - and that some rebel militias were (and are) committing atrocities themselves (62) - (63).

The fact that the BBC have now reported that, contrary to previous reports, none of those killed at Houla had their throats cut, is more evidence that we should treat the claims of some of the Syrian opposition with as much scepticism as we treat the Assad regime's claims (credit to Media Lens for noticing this first) (64).

The UN has also found that the Free Syrian Army rebels are recruiting children as soldiers (65).

Channel 4 journalist Alex Thomson also says Syrian rebels, asked to lead them home, instead tried to lead him and his crew into the middle of a fire-fight to try to get them killed to provide another atrocity by Assad story. (66)

Negotiations are the only way to avoid a Lebanese style civil war spreading across the Middle East

Negotiations are the only way to avoid a long, bloody civil war, with atrocities by all sides, like Lebanon's in the 1980s. If governments outside Syria instead continue to arm their own proxies or intervene militarily themselves then Syria, Lebanon and Iraq are likely to all collapse into civil war.

This might suit the US government and it's allies as even if it doesn't get it's own client regime in Syria but only chaos, this would still weaken the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah alliance, making it harder for Iran to get arms to Hezbollah and so easier for the US or Israel to attack Iran without Hezbollah counter-attacks on Israel being as strong. It would also mean a huge number of deaths, a Sunni-Shia war spreading across the Middle East and chaos that would allow Al Qa'ida and other terrorist groups to operate with ease.

There have already been at least 10 people killed in fighting between Sunnis demonstrating against Assad and Shia who support him in Lebanon (67).

Many Alawites, Christians and other religious minorities in Syria also fear being targeted by Sunni extremists if Assad is overthrown (68) - (69). A look at Iraq today or Lebanon any time in the past 30 years shows their fears may be well founded, with almost all surviving Assyrian Christians in Iraq having fled to Syria for instance, after Islamic extremists told them to convert to Islam or be killed (70). Those refugees are now under threat in Syria too.

The Killers aren't protecting their communities - they're putting their own families lives at risk

Of course those Syrians on both sides who have murdered civilians or shelled entire towns or villages with artillery also bear responsibility. They may try to tell themselves they are protecting their own communities, but in fact with every person they kill they are putting their families, their friends and their neighbours in more and more danger of revenge killings by the other side.

Sources

(1) = Human Rights Watch 11 Jun 2012 'Syria: Stop Grave Abuses of Children',

http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/06/11/syria-stop-grave-abuses-children

(2) = Bennis , Phyllis & Moushabeck , Michael (Editors) (1992) ‘Beyond the Storm’ ; Canongate Press , London , 1992, p326 – 355

(3) = Lee , Ian (1991) ‘Continuing Health Costs of the Gulf War’, Medical Educational Trust , London , 1991

(4) = BBC News 21 Aug 2007 ‘Flashback: the 1991 Iraqi revolt’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/2888989.stm

(5) = Aburish , Said K (2000) ‘Saddam Hussein - The Politics of Revenge’ Bloomsbury , London , 2000 - 2001 paperback edition, Ch11,p308 and footnote 60 p379

(6) = Galbraith, Peter W. (2006) ‘The End of Iraq’, Pocket Books paperback, 2007, Ch4, page 46

(7) = Reuters 28 Nov 2011 ''Russia sending warships to its base in Syria', http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/28/us-russia-syria-warships-idUSTRE7AR0S820111128

Sources for : The US and its allies are arming the rebels in Syria - and almost certainly extreme sectarian Sunni ones

(8) = BBC 04 Apr 2012 'Russian warns against arming Syrian opposition', http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17607547 ; 'Mr Lavrov's comments come three days after Gulf Arab states agreed to pay the "salaries" of Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters. The money will be distributed through the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC). '

(9) = Washington Post 16 May 2012 'Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination', http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/syrian-rebels-get-influx-of-arms-with-gulf-neighbors-money-us-coordination/2012/05/15/gIQAds2TSU_story.html

(10) = Independent 13 Jun 2012 'Exclusive: Arab states arm rebels as UN talks of Syrian civil war', http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/exclusive-arab-states-arm-rebels-as-un-talks-of-syrian-civil-war-7845026.html

(11) = Independent 07 Mar 2011 ‘America's secret plan to arm Libya's rebels  - Obama asks Saudis to airlift weapons into Benghazi ’, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/americas-secret-plan-to-arm-libyas-rebels-2234227.html

(12) = The American Conservative 19 Jan 2012 'Giraldi: 'NATO and CIA secretly arming Syrian rebels with Libyan weapons' , http://deepjournal.com/p/43/a/en/3049.html

(13) = BBC News 31 Aug 2011 'Fears over Islamists within Libyan rebel ranks', http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14728565

(14) = guardian.co.uk 18 Apr 2012 'Jack Straw faces legal action over Libya rendition claims', http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/apr/18/jack-straw-libya-rendition

(15) = Steve Coll (2004) , 'Ghost Wars : The secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan and Bin Laden' , Penguin , London , Chapters 16 to 18

(16) = Ahmed Rashid (2000) 'Taliban', Pan MacMillan, London, 2011, Chapters 10 to 12

(17) = Foreign Policy 14 Jun 2012 'Islamism and the Syrian uprising', http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/08/islamism_and_the_syrian_uprising

(18) = Reuters 23 Dec 2011 'Analysis: Syria bombings signal deadlier phase of revolt', http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/23/us-syria-bombings-idUSTRE7BM18T20111223 , 'Beirut-based commentator Rami Khouri said he doubted the government would have hit its own security targets, suggesting that the bombings could have been the work of armed rebels, who he said include hardline Salafi Islamists in their ranks....Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut, also said he did not believe that the Syrian government was behind the bombings.'

(19) = New York Times 10 May 2012 'Dozens Killed in Large Explosions in Syrian Capital', http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/11/world/middleeast/damascus-syria-explosions-intelligence-headquarters.html?pagewanted=all ; 'Twin suicide car bombs that targeted a notorious military intelligence compound shook the Syrian capital, Damascus, on Thursday, killing and wounding hundreds of people ...It was the largest such terrorist attack since the uprising began 14 months ago, with the Health Ministry putting the toll at 55 dead and nearly 400 wounded — civilians and soldiers. '

(20) = USA Today /AP 14 Jun 2012 'Car bomb damages major Shiite shrine in Syria'

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-06-14/syria-shrine-bombing/55592110/1

(21) = Reuters 14 Jun 2012 'Syrian rebels in Turkey doubtful over new Arab arms supplies', http://news.yahoo.com/syrian-rebels-turkey-doubtful-over-arab-arms-supplies-145503668.html

(22) = Steve Coll (2004) , 'Ghost Wars : The secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan and Bin Laden' , Penguin , London, Chapters 9 - 10 and Prologue (page 12 of paperback edition),

Sources for : Past actions of the US and it's allies show they that if they arm rebels or intervene they'll kill more civilians , not save them

(23) = BBC News 11 Jun 2005 ‘Profile: Iraq's Wolf Brigade’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4083326.stm

(24) = Guardian.co.uk 28 Oct 2010 ‘Iraq war logs: 'The US was part of the Wolf Brigade operation against us'’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/oct/28/iraq-war-logs-iraq

(25) = The New Yorker 05 Mar 2007 ‘Annals of National Security - The Redirection’, http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/03/05/070305fa_fact_hersh

(26) = NPR 17 July 2008, 'U.S. Trains Ex-Sunni Militias as Iraqi Police', http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=11240000

(27) = Sunday Times 25 Nov 2007, ‘American-backed killer militias strut across Iraq’, http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3076670

(28) = Guardian.co.uk 13 Jun 2012 'Iraq bombs kill scores of Shia pilgrims and police', http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/13/iraq-bombs-kill-shia-police?newsfeed=true

(29) = BBC News 23 Apr 2004 'Picture Emerges of Falluja Siege', http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3653223.stm

(30) = Iraq Body Count 26 Oct 2004 'No Longer Unknowable: Falluja's April Civilian Toll is 600', http://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/reference/press-releases/9/

(31) = Independent 04 Oct 2004 'Civilians Bear Brunt as Samarra 'Pacified' ',http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1004-02.htm (i've given this web address as the article no longer seems to be available in the Independent newspaper's archive)

(32) = Independent 24 Nov 2004 'Witnesses say US forces killed unarmed civilians', http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/witnesses-say-us-forces-killed-unarmed-civilians-534372.html

(33) = CNN 02 Jan 2004 'U.S. soldier killed as copter shot down in Iraq', http://articles.cnn.com/2004-01-02/world/sprj.nirq.main_1_baghdad-mosque-military-helicopter-coalition-forces?_s=PM:WORLD ; 'Meanwhile, several explosions were heard late Friday just southwest of Baghdad, where officials at the Coalition Provisional Authority said there was an ongoing offensive operation in progress. The officials said the offensive is utilizing attacks from the air, artillery fired from the ground and coordinated raids.'

(34) = guardian.co.uk 07 Oct 2011 'Battle for Sirte: Libyan forces launch largest assault yet', http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/07/battle-sirte-libyan-forces-assault 'Forces of Libya's new government have launched their largest assault so far on the coastal city of Sirte in the hope of taking the last major Gaddafi stronghold by the end of the week. After a massive dawn barrage of artillery and rockets, hundreds of fighters attempted to enter the city in columns of vehicles...Earlier in the week, fighting focused on a collection of buildings near the Ibn Sana hospital which became the target of the tanks, rocket launchers and anti-aircraft guns of Libya's revolutionaries lined up on the low sandy ridge that overlooks Sirte. On Thursday a pall of white smoke hung across this district as shells exploded every few minutes'

(35) = James Bovard (2003) 'Terrorism and Tyranny' , Palgrave Macmillan, 2003, NY & Houndsmill, Chapter 2, pages 14-15 and 23 of the paperback edition

(36) = Coalition to Oppose the Arms Trade magazine, Issue 51 , May 2003, '1976- 1983 : Lebanon - Another CIA President in Lebanon' , by Bob Woodward,

http://coat.ncf.ca/our_magazine/links/issue51/articles/51_28-29.pdf ; 'excerpted from Bob Woodward (1987) 'Veil : Secret wars of the CIA 1981-1987'

(37) = James Bovard (2003) 'Terrorism and Tyranny' , Palgrave Macmillan, 2003, NY & Houndsmill, Chapter 2, page 23 of paperback edition

(38) = BBC News On This Day 8th of March '1985: Beirut car bomb kills dozens ', http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/march/8/newsid_2516000/2516407.stm

Sources For:

Their current arming and support for other dictatorships that torture and kill unarmed protesters also show protecting civilians can't be the aim of the US and its allies in Syria

(39) = Independent 15 Jan 2012 'Britain accused of hypocrisy over Arab arms sales ', http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/britain-accused-of-hypocrisy-over-arab-arms-sales-6289847.html , 'Government figures posted on the web last week show that between July and September last year, when Bahrain's riot police were clashing with protesters and security services were routinely raiding homes, licenses were granted for £2.2m-worth of UK weapons to be exported, more than £1.3m of which were for military use. In the same period, £1.5m of arms exports to Egypt were licensed by the UK, of which more than £1m were specifically for military use. ...Last March, a month after President Mubarak was ousted, the Government revoked 44 arms licences for Egypt, but by the third quarter of last year they were allowing the passage of millions of pounds of military equipment. '

(40) = guardian.co.uk 14 Feb 2012 'Bahrain receives military equipment from UK despite violent crackdown', http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/14/bahrain-military-equipment-uk

(41) = Campaign Against the Arms Trade (CAAT) 09 Sep 2011 ‘Government tries to hide embarrassing truth about arms fair invitees’, http://www.caat.org.uk/press/archive.php?url=20110909prs‘On Thursday, 8 September, the government supported events promoting arms sales to countries including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.’

(42) = Amnesty International USA 30 Jan 2012 'U.S. Arms Sales to Bahrain: 4 Questions for the Obama Administration', http://blog.amnestyusa.org/middle-east/u-s-arms-sales-to-bahrain-4-questions-for-the-obama-administration/

(43) = Physicians for Human Rights 'Tear-Gas Related Deaths in Bahrain : March 2011 - March 2012', http://physiciansforhumanrights.org/issues/persecution-of-health-workers/bahrain/bahrain-tear-gas-deaths.html

(44) = Physicians for Human Rights 16 Mar 2012 'Tear Gas or Lethal Gas? Bahrain’s Death Toll Mounts to 34', http://physiciansforhumanrights.org/blog/tear-gas-or-lethal-gas.html

(45) = New York Times 23 Mar 2012 'Once Imperiled, U.S. Aid to Egypt Is Restored', http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/24/world/middleeast/once-imperiled-united-states-aid-to-egypt-is-restored.html

(46) = Amnesty International 22 Nov 2011 'Egypt: Military rulers have 'crushed' hopes of 25 January protesters', http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/egypt-military-rulers-have-crushed-hopes-25-january-protesters-2011-11-22

(47) = BBC 26 Mar 2011 ‘Saleh departure in Yemen: A matter of 'when', not 'if'’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12868544 , ‘second last sentence reads ‘While some other military units have joined the opposition, the elite US- and British-trained troops, headed by Mr Saleh's son and nephew, remain loyal to the president.’

(48) = Amnesty International 19 Sep 2011 ‘Yemen violence surges as protesters are killed’,http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/yemen-violence-surges-protesters-are-killed-2011-09-19 , ‘The Yemeni authorities must immediately stop the killing of peaceful protesters by security forces, Amnesty International said today following reports that dozens of people have been shot dead in the capital Sana'a since Sunday….Hundreds more are said to have been injured after security forces used snipers and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) against protesters marching to demand the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh.,,Around 26 people were killed on Sunday. The continuing violence has seen more killed in Sana'a today

(49) = AP 22 Oct 2011 ‘Clashes in Yemeni capital kill 20’, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45000453/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/clashes-yemeni-capital-kill/#.TsvornKKyuI , ‘Clashes between Yemeni government troops and a renegade army unit killed at least 20 people, including three civilians, in the capital Sanaa on Saturday, officials said.’

(50) = Al Arabiya 11 Nov 2011 ‘At least 15 Yemenis killed as Saleh’s loyalist forces shell southern city of Taez’, http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/11/11/176529.html

(51) = AFP 25 Oct 2011‘15 dead as Yemen truce fails, Saleh says ready to go’, http://news.yahoo.com/five-civilians-killed-yemen-protests-110515565.html , ‘In Sanaa and in Yemen's second largest city Taez at least 15 people were killed, according to medical officials and tribal sources… A seven-year-old child and a woman were among seven people killed in Taez, after what residents said was random shelling by government forces of neighbourhoods.The interior ministry said four policemen also died.’

(52) = Voice of America news 11 Nov 2011 ‘Yemeni Government Forces Kill 6 Civilians’, http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2011/11/11/yemeni-government-forces-kill-6-civilians/

(53) = AFP 05 Apr 2011 ‘No plans to suspend military aid to Yemen: US’, http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/04/05/no-plans-to-suspend-military-aid-to-yemen-us/

(54) = Reuters 05 Apr 2011 ‘U.S. urges Yemen transition, no aid cut-off-Pentagon’, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/05/us-yemen-usa-pentagon-idUSTRE7346V720110405

(55) = CAAT Country Data Yemen, http://www.caat.org.uk/resources/countrydata/?country_selected=Yemen ,(shows £800,000 worth of arms export licences approved in 2011 – more than twice the value of approved arms exports in 2010)

Sources For :The real motive of the US and its allies in Syria - Isolating Iran to prepare for a war of regime change there

(56) = Jerusalem Post / Reuters 14 Nov 2011 'Syria urges Arab League to reconsider suspension',http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=245466

(57) = Washington Post 15 Sep 2002, 'In Iraqi War Scenario, Oil Is Key Issue : U.S. Drillers Eye Huge Petroleum Pool', http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&contentId=A18841-2002Sep14 ; 'A U.S.-led ouster of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein could open a bonanza for American oil companies long banished from Iraq, scuttling oil deals between Baghdad and Russia, France and other countries, and reshuffling world petroleum markets, according to industry officials and leaders of the Iraqi opposition...."It's pretty straightforward," said former CIA director R. James Woolsey, who has been one of the leading advocates of forcing Hussein from power. "France and Russia have oil companies and interests in Iraq. They should be told that if they are of assistance in moving Iraq toward decent government, we'll do the best we can to ensure that the new government and American companies work closely with them." But he added: "If they throw in their lot with Saddam, it will be difficult to the point of impossible to persuade the new Iraqi government to work with them.'

Sources for : Syrian rebels are committing sectarian atrocities and killing civilians too

(58) = Reuters 23 Dec 2011 'Analysis: Syria bombings signal deadlier phase of revolt', http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/23/us-syria-bombings-idUSTRE7BM18T20111223 , 'Beirut-based commentator Rami Khouri said he doubted the government would have hit its own security targets, suggesting that the bombings could have been the work of armed rebels, who he said include hardline Salafi Islamists in their ranks....Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut, also said he did not believe that the Syrian government was behind the bombings.'

(59) = New York Times 10 May 2012 'Dozens Killed in Large Explosions in Syrian Capital', http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/11/world/middleeast/damascus-syria-explosions-intelligence-headquarters.html?pagewanted=all ; 'Twin suicide car bombs that targeted a notorious military intelligence compound shook the Syrian capital, Damascus, on Thursday, killing and wounding hundreds of people ...It was the largest such terrorist attack since the uprising began 14 months ago, with the Health Ministry putting the toll at 55 dead and nearly 400 wounded — civilians and soldiers. '

(60) = Human Rights Watch 20 Mar 2012 'Syria: Armed Opposition Groups Committing Abuses', http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/03/20/syria-armed-opposition-groups-committing-abuses

(61) = Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Germany) 07 Jun 2012 'Abermals Massaker in Syrien', http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/neue-erkenntnisse-zu-getoeteten-von-hula-abermals-massaker-in-syrien-11776496.html ; for English translation see http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=de&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.faz.net%2Faktuell%2Fpolitik%2Fneue-erkenntnisse-zu-getoeteten-von-hula-abermals-massaker-in-syrien-11776496.html

(62) = Christian Science Monitor 06 Sep 2002 ‘When contemplating war, beware of babies in incubators’, http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0906/p25s02-cogn.html

(63) = Independent 24 Jun 2011 'Amnesty questions claim that Gaddafi ordered rape as weapon of war', http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/amnesty-questions-claim-that-gaddafi-ordered-rape-as-weapon-of-war-2302037.html

(64) = BBC World News 07 Jun 2012 'Reporting conflict in Syria', http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2012/06/reporting_conflict_in_syria.html ; 'In the aftermath of the massacre at Houla last month, initial reports said some of the 49 children and 34 women killed had their throats cut. In Damascus, Western officials told me the subsequent investigation revealed none of those found dead had been killed in such a brutal manner. Moreover, while Syrian forces had shelled the area shortly before the massacre, the details of exactly who carried out the attacks, how and why were still unclear. Whatever the cause, officials fear the attack marks the beginning of the sectarian aspect of the conflict. '

(65) = Human Rights Watch 11 Jun 2012 'Syria: Stop Grave Abuses of Children', http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/06/11/syria-stop-grave-abuses-children

(66) = Channel 4 News 08 Jun 2012 'Set up to be shot in Syria's no man's land', http://blogs.channel4.com/alex-thomsons-view/hostile-territory/1863

Sources For : Negotiations are the only way to avoid a Lebanese style civil war spreading across the Middle East

(67) = Los Angeles Times 03 Jun 2012 'Lebanon clashes raise fear of 'spillover' in Syria violence',http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jun/03/world/la-fg-syria-violence-20120603 ; 'Gunfights raged Saturday in the Lebanese coastal city of Tripoli, where supporters and opponents of Syria's President Bashar Assad exchanged machine-gun fire and rocket-propelled grenade volleys across a densely populated urban cityscape...By early evening, Lebanon's official National News Agency reported at least 10 people had been killed and more than two dozen wounded .'

(68) = Los Angeles Times 07 Mar 2012 'Syria Christians fear life after Assad', http://articles.latimes.com/2012/mar/07/world/la-fg-syria-christians-20120307

(69) = Independent 18 Feb 2012 'Syrians flee their homes amid fears of ethnic cleansing',http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syrians-flee-their-homes-amid-fears-of-ethnic-cleansing-7079802.html ; 'Members of Syria's minority Alawite community are fleeing their homes and going into hiding, terrified that avenging rebels will hunt them down as more areas of the country come under the control of fighters trying to topple President Bashar al-Assad. '

(70) = New York Times 08 May 2007 'The assault on Assyrian Christians', http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/opinion/08iht-edisaac.1.5618504.html

The Houla massacre - no throats slit, uncertainty over whether government or rebel forces responsible and who victims were - many media reports wrongly assume all Syrian opposition claims are true

Media reports on the Houla massacre in Syria were previously quoting people who said they were survivors on all the victims being Sunnis killed by pro-Assad Alawite militia, with children having had their throats cut (1) - (2).

There clearly was a sickening massacre of civilians including children in Houla, but it turns out that few or none of the victims' throats may have been cut. It also seems that we don't know who the killers were, how some of the victims were killed, nor who many of the victims were.

I'm not saying all those who say they are survivors are definitely lying - some or all of them may be entirely truthful, but we simply don't know one way or the other.

As Media Lens has pointed out, Jon Williams, an editor at BBC World News, has written on the BBC website that :

"In the aftermath of the massacre at Houla last month, initial reports said some of the 49 children and 34 women killed had their throats cut. In Damascus, Western officials told me the subsequent investigation revealed none of those found dead had been killed in such a brutal manner. Moreover, while Syrian forces had shelled the area shortly before the massacre, the details of exactly who carried out the attacks, how and why were still unclear. Whatever the cause, officials fear the attack marks the beginning of the sectarian aspect of the conflict. " (3)

Another BBC reporter, Paul Danahar, adds that "There is a sense in Damascus shared by many diplomats, international officials and those opposed to President Assad that his regime may no longer have complete and direct day-to-day command and control of some of the militia groups being blamed for massacring civilians. ........

........Members of the international community in Damascus say that, contrary to initial reports, most of the people in Houla were killed by gunfire spraying the rooms, not by execution-style killings with a gun placed to the back of the head. Also people's throats were not cut, although one person did have an eye gouged out. " (4)

This has not made any headlines, though it should be making them to correct the inital reports (though I think it's pretty unlikely that Assad's regime has no control over pro-government militias - this seems like the same excuse Ariel Sharon tried to use when he let the Phalangist militias into Sabra and Shatila refugee camps to massacre Palestinian civilians)

As with the Kuwaiti babies thrown from incubators story during the 1991 Iraq war and some of the claims made by Libyan rebels of atrocities by Gadaffi's forces turning out to be false (for instance handing out condoms to soldiers, orders to rape all women, anti-aircraft guns used on protesters) we should not be taking every claim made by anyone in the Syrian opposition as true - some may not be (5) - (6).

The German newspaper the Frankfurt Allgemeine Zeitung has also reported some Syrian opposition sources saying the Houla massacre was committed by Sunni rebels with the victims being Alawites and Shia converts who used to be Sunnis, as well as a Sunni MP. (Many jihadist groups consider taking part in elections to by unIslamic and to be collaboration with the enemy.) The newspaper also says the opposition sources wish to remain anonymous because armed rebel groups have already killed opposition members who spoke out against an armed uprising (7).

The FAZ report says Houla is 90% Sunni - something that all reports, including those blaming government militias, agree on, though the FAZ report says Sunni rebels were the killers, able to carry out the killings of a minority in their own community, while other reports say Houla's residents were targeted because they were Sunnis and so are the rebels.

Which version is true is impossible to say in the middle of a civil war with both sides and all their foreign allies spreading their own propaganda - I am not saying that we can know for certain that Assad's militias weren't responsible either , but that is what every media report should be saying until full investigations can be carried out.

While Assad's military and militias who support him are likely to be guilty of many murders, rebels have killed civilians too.

Instead reports which later turn out to be almost competely false are being churned out and aiding calls to send in NATO troops to a potential third world war with Russia and China, or arm the rebels, who are committing atrocities of their own - including car bombings which have killed hundreds of civilians (8) - (9).

(1) = guardian.co.uk 28 May 2012 'Houla massacre survivor tells how his family were slaughtered', http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/28/houla-massacre-survivor-boy-syria

(2) = Channel 4 News 30 May 2012 'The Searing Grief of Houla's survivors', http://blogs.channel4.com/alex-thomsons-view/searing-grief-houlas-survivors/1739

(3) = BBC World News 07 Jun 2012 'Reporting conflict in Syria', http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2012/06/reporting_conflict_in_syria.html

(4) = BBC News 'New 'massacre' reported in Syria's Hama province', http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18348201 (see right hand column headed 'Analysis' half way down the page)

(5) = Christian Science Monitor 06 Sep 2002 ‘When contemplating war, beware of babies in incubators’, http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0906/p25s02-cogn.html

(6) = Independent 24 Jun 2011 'Amnesty questions claim that Gaddafi ordered rape as weapon of war', http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/amnesty-questions-claim-that-gaddafi-ordered-rape-as-weapon-of-war-2302037.html

(7) = Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Germany) 07 Jun 2012 'Abermals Massaker in Syrien', http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/neue-erkenntnisse-zu-getoeteten-von-hula-abermals-massaker-in-syrien-11776496.html ; for English translation see http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=de&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.faz.net%2Faktuell%2Fpolitik%2Fneue-erkenntnisse-zu-getoeteten-von-hula-abermals-massaker-in-syrien-11776496.html

(8) = Human Rights Watch 20 Mar 2012 'Syria: Armed Opposition Groups Committing Abuses', http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/03/20/syria-armed-opposition-groups-committing-abuses

(9) = New York Times 10 May 2012 'Dozens Killed in Large Explosions in Syrian Capital', http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/11/world/middleeast/damascus-syria-explosions-intelligence-headquarters.html?pagewanted=all ; 'Twin suicide car bombs that targeted a notorious military intelligence compound shook the Syrian capital, Damascus, on Thursday, killing and wounding hundreds of people ...It was the largest such terrorist attack since the uprising began 14 months ago, with the Health Ministry putting the toll at 55 dead and nearly 400 wounded — civilians and soldiers. '

Why Germany will lose export earnings if Greece leaves the Euro

German and British politicians and IMF officials are fond of talking to the Greeks as if they were doing them a favour by offering any debt write down or bail out at all, even on the extreme austerity terms they're offering - and that Greeks can take it or leave it.

The dominant view seems to be that Germany and other northern EU members were doing Greece a favour by letting it into the EU and the Euro-zone, or that Greece is so backward or corrupt that it should never have been allowed in to either. This is very far from the truth. In fact Germany gains massive amounts of trade income as a result of weaker economies' membership of the Euro.

Greek membership of the EU and the Euro-zone has actually boosted German exports to Greece and to the rest of the world massively - and if Greece leaves the Euro German exports both to Greece and to countries outside the EU will fall and so German export earnings will fall.

With Euro currency zone membership the first reason is that before the Euro was introduced as a common currency the German Deutschmark was worth many Greek drachma. This meant that German exports were too expensive for most Greeks to buy, so they would be more likely to buy cheaper products made by Greek or other producers or companies. With the introduction of the Euro the price of German exports was effectively lowered, so Greeks bought more German products, increasing German exports and export earnings.

The second reason is that the value of the Euro is based on the average economic strength of the entire Euro-zone, making it worth less than the Deutschmark, which had a value based on the very strong German economy. As a result, with the introduction of the Euro, German exports to countries outside the EU also became cheaper to buy for consumers in other countries - once again leading to an increase in German exports and export earnings.

If Greece leaves the Euro the crisis will likely spread to, at the least, Portugal and Spain - and possibly to Ireland and Italy, meaning all those countries might leave the Euro. They would then return to their own, weaker, currencies, effectively increasing the price of German exports to buyers in those countries and reducing German exports.

On top of that each weaker economy leaving the Euro will increase the value of the Euro, meaning exports from Germany and any other remaining Euro-zone countries worldwide will rise in price to buyers in other countries, reducing exports for Germany and any other remaining Euro-zone countries.

With EU membership the reason is free trade between a relatively strong developed economy and a barely developed one. German and British and French industries and companies built up over centuries of protection and subsidy before World War Two and decades of investment (including the lion's share of Marshall Plan aid) after it, are free to export to Greece and Portugal and Spain with no barriers up to protect Greek or Portugese or Spanish industries and companies or allow them to develop.

The Graph at the top of the page is from Antonio Fatas' post on Insead blog

IMF Director Christine Lagarde orders Greeks to pay their taxes while doing nothing to close down tax havens either as French Finance Minister or head of the IMF

IMF head Christine LaGarde's orders to Greeks to do their duty and pay their taxes ring pretty hollow coming from a woman who is the former French Finance minister. In that role she did pretty much nothing to close down tax havens in the EU (Switzerland, the Channel Islands, etc) or former French or British colonies and dependencies; and as head of the IMF she has done pretty much nothing in that regard either. Unless she's willing to close down the tax havens to stop the wealthiest and big banks and firms from avoiding tax, she has no leg to stand on in telling ordinary Greeks to pay theirs. Most of them already do. (1)

(1) = Guardian.co.uk 28 May 2012 'Christine Lagarde's Greek comments provoke fury', http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/28/christine-lagarde-greek-comments-fury

The Real Lockerbie bombers must be unable to believe their luck that the witch hunt against Megrahi is still letting them get off with mass murder even after he's dead

The real Lockerbie bombers, whoever they are, must be unable to believe their luck that they are still not even facing any charges for their criminal act of mass murder, due to most politicians and much of the media continuing witch-hunting Megrahi even after his death. This is helping governments deny Scottish and British relatives of Lockerbie victims from getting the truth which they are demanding, by helping the Scottish and British governments deny them an independent public inquiry.

Megrahi is still routinely labelled a 'mass murderer' or 'convicted Lockerbie bomber' by many politicians and much of them media, despite his trial having been a show trial that Stalin would have admired. There was no jury (1). Key evidence - the timer fragment - was tampered with and probably fake according to witness and timer manufacturer Edwin Bollier. Bollier also says the fragment he was shown in court had a brown circuit board, while those he sold to the Libyan government had green circuit boards (2).

Witness Tony Gauci - who identified Megrahi as the person who bought clothes said to have been found in a suitcase surviving the plane crash - was paid $2 million by the US government to identify Megrahi as the man who bought them ; and had seen photos of Megrahi in magazines before doing so (3) - (4).

Scots Law Professor Robert Black (who helped negotiate the establishment of the trial), UN observer Dr Hans Kochler and Dr Jim Swire, whose daughter Flora died in the bombing, are among the many reliable neutral observers present at the trial and appeals hearings who say they were shams and that Megrahi was innocent (5) - (7).

Kochler said the trial verdict made no sense based on the evidence, while the appeal hearing (in which Megrahi was denied an appeal) was more like an intelligence operation than a legal process and also"a spectacular miscarriage of justice" (8) - (11).

Black has written that "for the judges to be satisfied of all these matters on the evidence led at the trial, they would require to adopt the posture of the White Queen in Through the Looking-Glass, when she informed Alice: "Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast." In convicting Megrahi ... this is precisely what the trial judges did. I am absolutely convinced that if the evidence had come out in front of a Scottish jury of 15 there is absolutely no way he would have been convicted." (12)

Theories that should be investigated

There are three theories plausible enough to warrant investigation.

Iranian revenge for the killing of 290 Iranian airliner passengers by the USS Vincennes?

The first is that the bombers were Palestinian and Lebanese terrorists contracted by Syria's government for Iran's Ayatollah Khomeini after he vowed revenge for the killing of 290 Iranian civilians when the US navy warship the USS Vincennes entered Iranian waters during the Iran-Iraq war (in which the Reagan administration was allied to Saddam Hussein) and shot down an Iranian Airbus airliner earlier in 1988 (13) - (14).

This would be embarrassing to the US government and it's allies because it highlights a massacre of civilians by their own forces, whether deliberately or , more likely, accidentally through sheer recklessness and carelessness in starting a battle that could have been avoided and not using their radar system properly (15).

If this did lead to the Lockerbie bombing in revenge it would also show that terrorist attacks are not always random or based on irrational hatred, but sometimes acts of revenge for the murder of other civilians by the US government and it's military.

It was also the original line followed by the first British police investigations into Lockerbie, but rapidly reversed after a phone call to Margaret Thatcher from President Bush senior in 1989. Bush would go on to enlist Syria as an ally against Iraq in the 1990 Gulf War and secure Iran's neutrality in it (16) - (20).

Gaddafi's revenge for US airstrikes using planes refuelling in the UK in 1986?

The second is that Gaddafi ordered it as revenge for US bombing attacks on Tripoli in 1986, in which the planes involved used British airbases with to refuel (with the permission of British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher). The bombings killed dozens of people including Gaddafi's adopted daughter but fai (21) - (22).

Cover-up of CIA drug trafficking involvement from the Middle East to Europe,
similar to that from central and Southern America in the 1980s as part of Iran-Contra?

The third is that the CIA bombed the flight to kill operatives who were about to reveal their involvement in Middle Eastern heroin trafficking. Former US Defence Intelligence Agency operative Lester Coleman says some CIA and DEA (US Drug Enforcement Agency) agents' bags were never checked when they flew through Frankfurt or London Heathrow airports (23) - (24).

This would explain how the bomb, which the prosecution claimed was in Megrahi's suitcase, managed to get through airport security without being detected.

John Ashton and Paul Foot’s investigation found that Jim Wilson, a farmer whose farm was near Lockerbie, found a suit-case containing bags of white powder which he suspected were drugs among the debris on his land. He was not called to give evidence at the trial. The name on the case was not on flight's passenger list. On the night of the bombing two bus loads of FBI agents arrived the same night at the site. Residents reported that they had a coffin on one of the buses. Scottish doctors and police had tagged 59 bodies. Only 58 were ever mentioned by the FBI and the prosecution. According toe Coleman the 59th body was Major Charles Mckee - a US intelligence agent who was about to blow the whistle on a deal with Lebanese drug traffickers. (25).

This may sound far-fetched unless you know about the part of the Iran-Contra scandal which involved the CIA and US military intelligence, using Latin American drug smugglers' planes to fly guns to the contras, with the purchase of the guns funded by the CIA taking a cut of the profits from cocaine smuggling into the US in the same planes. This was authorised by senior members of the Reagan administration in order to get round the congressional Boland Amendment which banded any US government funding of arms for the contra terrorists. This has been established by congressional inquiries and investigations by American academics - and it was going through the 1980s - with the Lockerbie bombing happening in 1988 (26) - (28).

This third theory is strengthened by the fact that the US government, after recieving a warning phone call, warned many of it's employees not to get on the flight, but did not warn McKee nor other governments or members of the public (29).

The truth did not die when Megrahi did : Give Scottish and British Lockerbie relatives the Independent Public Inquiry they demand

Whether one of the above theories is the truth or something else entirely, we should give the relatives of Lockerbie victims the independent public inquiry which they are demanding, deserve and are being denied by politicians of every major party in Scotland and Britain (30).

By an independent public inquiry I mean one in which the inquiry is given governmental authority and powers, but it's powers, remitt (the evidence it can consider, questions it can ask and conclusions it can draw) and who heads it are all decided by the Scottish and other British relatives of those killed at Lockerbie.

The truth being embarrassing for politicians and judges is not a good enough reason to deny it to the families.

The governments and politicians and judges for whom an end to any questions about Lockerbie would avoid embarrassment ; and those in the media who have chosen to parrot the government line might prefer to claim that the truth about Lockerbie was lost when Megrahi died , but it was not and will not be.

Sources

(1) = BBC News 20 May 2012 'Lockerbie questions remain following Megrahi's death', http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-12191604

(2) = Observer 02 Sep 2007 'Vital Lockerbie evidence 'was tampered with'', http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/sep/02/theairlineindustry.libya

(3) = Herald 03 Oct 2007 'Revealed: CIA offered $2m to Lockerbie witness and brother', http://www.heraldscotland.com/revealed-cia-offered-2m-to-lockerbie-witness-and-brother-1.866400

(4) = BBC News 28 Aug 2008 'Lockerbie evidence not disclosed ', http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/south_of_scotland/7573244.stm ; '...Tony Gauci, who picked al-Megrahi out in a line-up, had looked at a magazine photograph of him just four days before he made the identification. BBC TV programme The Conspiracy Files: Lockerbie has now seen documentary evidence that Scottish police knew this was the case. That information should have been passed to the defence, but the disclosure did not take place. '

(5) = Professor Robert Black's 'The Lockerbie Case' blog, http://lockerbiecase.blogspot.co.uk/

(6) = Dr Hans Kochler , http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_K%C3%B6chler%27s_Lockerbie_trial_observer_mission

(7) = Lockerbietruth.com - The website of Dr Jim Swire and Lockerbie researcher Peter Biddulph, http://www.lockerbietruth.com/

(8) = Independent 21 Aug 2009 ‘Hans Köchler: I saw the trial – and the verdict made no sense’, http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/hans-kchler-i-saw-the-trial-ndash-and-the-verdict-made-no-sense-1775217.html

(9) = BBC News 14 Mar 2002 ‘UN monitor decries Lockerbie judgement’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/1872996.stm

(10) = The Firm (Scottish lawyers’ magazine) 10 Jun 2008 ‘UN Observer to the Lockerbie Trial says ‘totalitarian’ appeal process bears the hallmarks of an “intelligence operation”’, http://www.firmmagazine.com/news/901/UN_Observer_to_the_Lockerbie_Trial_says_%E2%80%98totalitarian%E2%80%99_appeal_process_bears_the_hallmarks_of_an_%E2%80%9Cintelligence_operation%E2%80%9D_.html

(11) = Report on the appeal proceedings at the Scottish Court in the Netherlands (Lockerbie Court) in the case of Abdelbaset Ali Mohamed Al Megrahi v. H. M. Advocate by Professor Hans Köchler, international observer of the International Progress Organization nominated by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan on the basis of Security Council resolution 1192 (1998)

(12) = ‘The Lockerbie Case’ 21 Aug 2009 , http://lockerbiecase.blogspot.com/2009/08/this-shameful-miscarriage-has-gravely.html (blog written by Professor Robert Black)

Sources - Iranian revenge for killing of 290 Iranian airliner passengers by the USS Vincennes?

(13) = NYT 15 Jul 1988 ‘Iran Falls Short in Drive at U.N. To Condemn U.S. in Airbus Case’, http://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/15/world/iran-falls-short-in-drive-at-un-to-condemn-us-in-airbus-case.html

(14) = Newsweek 13 Jul 1992 ‘Sea of Lies : Sea Of Lies : The Inside Story Of How An American Naval Vessel Blundered Into An Attack On Iran Air Flight 655 At The Height Of Tensions During The Iran-Iraq War-And How The Pentagon Tried To Cover Its Tracks After 290 Innocent Civilians Died’, http://www.newsweek.com/id/126358

(15) = See (14) above

(16) = Guardian 31 March 2004 ‘Lockerbie's dirty secret’, by Paul Foot, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2004/mar/31/lockerbie.libya

(17) = Paul Foot (1989-2001) ‘The Great Lockerbie Whitewash’ in Pilger, John (ed.) (2005) ‘Tell Me No Lies’, Vintage/Random House, London, 2005, pages 214-254

(18) = Sunday Times 01 Jul 2007 ‘Unpicking the Lockerbie truth’, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article2009603.ece (19) = Guardian 07 Apr 1999 ‘Lockerbie conspiracies: from A to Z ; Based on a 1995 Guardian investigation by Paul Foot and John Ashton’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/1999/apr/07/lockerbie.patrickbarkham (20) = Guardian 29 Jul 1995, SECTION: THE GUARDIAN WEEKEND, Page T22 ‘INSIDE STORY: BODY OF EVIDENCE’, http://leninology4.blogspot.com/2007/06/paul-foot-john-ashtons-1995.html

Sources - Gaddafi's revenge for US airstrikes using planes refuelling in the UK in 1986?

(21) = Bovard, James (2003) ‘Terrorism and Tyranny’, Palgrave-MacMillan, NY,2003, Chapter 2, pages 24-26

(22) = Geoff Simons (2003) ‘Libya and the West’ Center for Libyan Studies, Oxford, UK, 2003,Chapter 7, pages 131-134 of hardback edition

Sources - Cover-up of CIA drug trafficking involvement from the Middle East to Europe, similar to that from central and Southern America in the 1980s as part of Iran-Contra

(23) = Coleman, Lester K & Goddard, Donald (1993) ‘Trail of the Octopus: From Beirut to Lockerbie - Inside the DIA’

(24) = Guardian 29 Jul 1995, SECTION: THE GUARDIAN WEEKEND, Page T22 ‘INSIDE STORY: BODY OF EVIDENCE’, http://leninology4.blogspot.com/2007/06/paul-foot-john-ashtons-1995.html

(25) = See (24) above (26) = Cockburn, Alexander & St. Clair, Jeffrey (1998), ‘Whiteout – The CIA, Drugs and the Press’, Verso, London & N.Y , 1998, Chapters 12 & 13 (27) = Scott, Peter Dale & Marshall, Jonathan (1998) ‘Cocaine Politics – Drugs, Armies and the CIA in Central America (1998 edition)’, University of California Press, Berkeley, London & Los Angeles, 1998 (28) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_North#Involvement_with_drug_trafficking (this is a wikipedia entry but provides reliable sources - including the Kerry report - a congressional inquiry into links between drug traffickers, the contras and the CIA - and FBI investigations)

(29) = See (24) above

Sources - Give Lockerbie relatives the Independent Public Inquiry they demand

(30) = Herald (Scotland) 22 May 2012 'Lockerbie families vow to force public inquiry', http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/news/crime-courts/lockerbie-families-vow-to-force-public-inquiry.17660141

Why Greece will be forced to leave the Euro unless it's offered a better deal ; the other problems with the EU and the Euro ; and the mass starvation they are distracting us from

(If this article is too long for you to read as a blog post see my website version with contents links between different sections)

Greece's keep the Euro, reject austerity option?

Greece has the option of rejecting the austerity bail-out package and disowning it's debts, while keeping the Euro as a currency, with or without remaining Euro-zone governments' permission. First Minister Alec Salmond similarly plans to keep the pound as a currency if Scotland becomes independent, based on many countries using the US dollar as their currency (1).

Despite the myth that defaulting on large debts leads to instant bankruptcy for debtor countries, South Korean economist Ha Joon Chang's book '23 Things they don't tell you about capitalism' notes numerous examples of indebted countries defaulting on their debts and immediately finding new creditors willing to lend to them (2).

This option might result in even worse austerity problems than the bail-out package in the short term though and might lead to the same end result of Greece leaving the Euro unless the bail-out package is renegotiated to reduce the austerity element, increase the stimulus element and crack down on tax havens to increase tax revenues for Greece and all other governments.

The remaining Euro zone countries could try to force Greece to drop the Euro by blanket trade sanctions, but that might lead to currency crises in Portugal, Spain and even Ireland and Italy, with the Euro zone ending up restricted to Northern and central Europe.

There is the possibility that some politicians and voters in Northern European countries might prefer this, but it would hurt their exports. Germany's exports have increased massively as a result of the Euro. This is because while the Deutsch mark was very high in value due to Germany's strong economy, making German exports expensive (as international trade involves currency exchanges), the Euro's value is based on the average strength of the economies of the entire EU and so is lower in value than the Deutsch mark. This made German exports cheaper to buy in other countries and so more competitive against their rivals exports (and against goods produced in the countries Germany exports too.) (3)

A Northern and central Europe only euro-zone, composed of stronger economies, would mean the value of the Euro would rise, making exports from Euro-zone countries more expensive for consumers outside the Eurozone (in countries using currencies other than the Euro), so reducing orders for and sales of those exports.

The problem with Greece keeping the Euro without a Eurozone agreement

More likely, Greece might run out of money if it tried to remain in the Euro without the agreement of Eurozone governments, as it's government can't print Euros - only the European Central Bank (ECB) can - and the ECB is mostly under the control of the German and French governments as the two largest economies in the Eurozone.

That could force Greece to return to the drachma as a currency.

A return to the drachma?

The drachma, based on the weak Greek economy, might well fall further in value at least in the short term due to the crisis.

This would have the effect of increasing the cost of all Greece's imports - most importantly fuel (especially oil, gas, coal and refined petrol), with Greece relying on imports for two-thirds of it's energy requirements (4).

That would certainly hurt the Greek economy, but would it hurt it any worse than EU (or Eurozone) governments' austerity measures and enforced sell-off of it's remaining assets at the bottom of the market (including state owned utilities which could bring in revenue if the economy recovered)?

A Greek government after the second elections in June might decide it wouldn't.

However it would also allow Greece to print it's own money and would make it's exports more competitive (it's problem being that it doesn't export enough at the moment and would need to export far more).

This could also (in the longer term, once it re-stabilised) allow Greece to invest more in e.g solar power to reduce its dependence on energy imports.

The need for Germany to allow Greece to re-negotiate the bail-out deal

German Chancellor Angela Merkel says agreements made must be honoured, but those agreements were made without any democratic consultation of the Greek people, with the elected Greek Prime Minister ( George Papandreou ) forced to resign when he suggested a referendum on the bail-out deal (5). He was replaced with an unelected bureaucrat Lukas Papademos, who had previously been vice President of the European Central Bank (which issues the Euro).

If there had to be referenda for countries to join the Euro, why wasn't there one an agreement to impose austerity for the majority in Greece, especially when austerity has shown itself to be counter-productive?

So why shouldn't 17% of Greeks have voted for Syriza, the Green-socialist anti-austerity coalition? And why shouldn't over 20% of them be saying they'll vote for it in the emergency repeat elections in June? (6) (Though the centre-right pro-bail-out deal New Democracy was ahead of Syriza in one poll it's apparent poll lead was within the margin of error of the poll ) (7).

Syriza may be unrealistic in demanding no austerity measures whatsoever - some cuts may be necesary - but it is right that there is no democratic legitimacy to the bail-out deal imposed by Euro-zone and EU governments so far; and right that the level of austerity demanded is counter-productive and unfair (as well as letting the richest Greeks off with tax avoidance through tax havens while the rest suffer.

Syriza has every right to use it's existing electoral mandate and any votes it gets in the new elections to demand a renegotiation of the terms of the bail-out deal. Stimulus measures such as public works and government funded infrastructure building and training programmes may well be necessary.

Austerity taken to the current extremes chokes off any chance of the economic growth that Greece requires to be able to pay off it's remaining debts. This only benefits Greece's creditors, primarily Eurozone governments and big US, British, German and French banks, who can continue to farm the Greek population for interest payments as long as they remain in debt (8). Is it a co-incidence that allowing tax havens also benefits them? Or that forcing the sell off of state utilities on the cheap benefits them and investors from Northern Europe and the US?

Given a fair deal Greeks might well be able to stay in the Euro - polls show most would prefer to.

Merkel's statements have already begun shifting towards suggesting there could be a bigger stimulus element to the bail-out package, which is encouraging (9).

(Merkel also suggested to the current caretaker Greek Prime Minister that the new Greek elections should be accompanied by a referendum on whether to stay in the Euro - which the PM said he could not as a caretaker government did not have the authority.) (10)

Why Greeks feel oppressed by larger countries :
the history

The reason that many Greeks feel oppressed by larger countries is that for centuries to present, they have been. Since gaining their independence from the collapsing Ottoman Empire in the 19th century they were invaded and occupied by German forces in World War Two.

After Greek Communist partisans kept several German divisions occupied for most of the war, the 'liberating' British forces' and regular Greek military's reward to them was to shell thousands of Communist demonstrators and partisans with artillery with Churchill's approval in 1944.

This was followed by a civil war from 1946-1949 in which the US and British governments backed the Greek military against Communist groups. Communists and suspected communists were hunted down and persecuted for decades.

Under the US backed military government of the 'Colonel's regime' from 1967 to 1974, the assassination, jailing, torture or disappearance of anyone critical of the ruling military was commonplace, with CIA assistance.

President Lyndon B Johnson responded to the complaints of the Greek ambassador to the UN about US operations in Greece and Cyprus in 1967 by saying "Listen to me, Mr. Ambassador! Fuck your parliament and your constitution! America is an elephant. Cyprus is a flea. Greece is a flea. If those two fleas continue itching the elephant, they may just get whacked by the elephant’s trunk, whacked good.… We pay a lot of good American dollars to the Greeks, Mr. Ambassador. If your prime minister gives me talk about democracy, parliaments, and constitutions, he, his parliament, and his constitution may not last long."

So many Greeks see the current crisis as more of the same - few people have been killed (some demonstrators by police), but so far they have had larger countries governments imposing 'agreements' on them without any democracy.

The myth of laziness and corruption as the causes of under-development

German, British and French politicians have found it convenient to allow the myth that Greece's debt is mainly due to Greeks being lazy or corrupt. South Korean economist Ha Joon Chang points out that in the early 19th century, when Germany and Japan were less industrialised than France or England, Japanese and Germans were seen as lazy and backward. Chang comes to the conclusion that rather than changed culture resulting in development, cultural changes come about as a result of development, which is why people in poor, undeveloped countries are stereotyped as lazy. A society riddled with bribery is similarly usually the result of poverty and lack of economic and governmental development, rather than a cause of it (11).

James Steadway, chief economist at the New Economics Foundation, found figures suggesting Greeks on average retire older than Germans - and work 50% longer hours (12).

Tax avoidance and Evasion which increases government deficits and debts is facilitated by tax havens - why no EU or member state action on this?

While there was too much tax evasion in Greece, EU member governments have not closed down the tax havens which continue to facilitate tax avoidance and evasion by big banks, firms and the wealthiest across the EU and the world. Switzerland is a favourite tax haven for wealthy Greeks and Greek companies, while Greece's creditors include banks like the US based Goldman Sachs and the British based Royal Bank of Scotland, both of which, like most of the UK's FTSE 100 companies, are heavily involved in tax avoidance through tax havens (13) - (15).

This is surely a form of corruption on a grand scale - especially when parties in government are receiving large donations to party funds for election campaigns from the billionaires, banks and firms using the tax havens - and former government ministers involved in regulating (or more often de-regulating) industries end up on the boards of companies their department or government regulated.

The need to recycle the trade surpluses of stronger economies into developing weaker ones

Many economists (e.g Will Hutton and former World Bank economist Joseph Stiglitz) say the Eurozone's major weakness is the lack of any sufficient regional development fund to even out the inevitable trade imbalances between strong economies like Germany's and weaker ones like Greece, Portugal and Spain. A sufficient fund would act to recycle a large part of the trade surplus money of countries like Germany into investment in the weaker economies like Greece (16) - (17).

The insufficiency was exacerbated by the redirection of regional development funds from Portugal, Greece, Spain and Ireland to new member states as the EU expanded eastwards, arguably too fast, without referenda in the existing member states and without any EU minimum wage.

This is just as true of the EU as a free trade area as it is of the Euro-zone as a single currency area.

The US is a huge country made up of many states with significant differences in the strength or weakness of their economies, but this is moderated by large infrastructure and investment projects in poorer states by the US Federal Government.

Why complete free trade plus a single currency across countries at hugely different levels of development can't work

South Korean economist Ha Joon Chang's book 'Bad Samaritans' has something relevant to say here too. His book takes numerous historical examples to show that the British, US and other developed economies built up key industries over centuries by subsidising them and protecting them from the imports of foreign rivals. Only once they were strong enough to defeat any competition internationally did their governments become advocates of free trade - and even now advocate it for developing countries (and make it a condition of aid and trade deals) while often subsidising and protecting their own industries. Similarly foreign investment does not create growth first, but is attracted by building up a strong economy by publicly funded infrastructure and investment (18).

So is the EU free market and Eurozone project one that makes it impossible for weaker economies to ever develop their own industries when forced to open their markets to imports from stronger economies built up over centuries of protectionism? Does the Euro make things even harder for them by making the more developed economies' exports even cheaper? Should exceptions be made on the bans on protectionism and state subsidies for some of the industries of the weaker economies in the EU (just as poorer developing countries outside it desperately need to be allowed to protect and subsidise their agriculture and industries to develop them without being penalised by losing aid or trade deals as a result)?

Without these kind of exceptions being allowed for weaker economies, their electorates may end up concluding that they will be less badly off out of both the euro currency zone and the EU itself.

Contrary to Germany's image of itself as paying to bail out irresponsible Greeks, the current system gives all the benefits to the wealthier countries in the EU and the euro-zone with the costs largely paid by the poorer ones.

While this is true of trade between relatively developed nations of different economic strengths and levels of development within the EU and the developed world, it all holds even more true for trade between the developed countries and the almost entirely undeveloped former colonies in Africa and much of Latin America and Asia.

The need to resolve the developed world crises in order to deal with much bigger ones -
the starvation, hunger and lack of clean drinking water crisis in the developing world and the energy, resource and climate change one worldwide

Germany and the other strong economies in the EU should offer these kind of concessions in order to end the crisis quickly and move on to dealing with far more serious crises - such as the hundreds of millions of people in other parts of the world who are going without enough food to eat and without clean water to drink - and the coming catastrophic energy, resource and food crisis if we don't reduce our wasteful over-use of energy and resources.

Oxfam estimate that a billion people or one in seven of the world's population can't afford enough to eat each day for themselves or their children - a problem made worse by the rising price of food partly due to the rising price of fuel for transporting it, while the UN and other experts estimate between 800 million and 4 billion (probably more like 4 billion) have no access to clean drinking water, resulting in them suffering illness and often death from water borne diseases (19).

You can sign an avaaz petition which will be handed to G8 and other government's leaders at the G8 summit demanding they act to provide food security for the growing numbers of hungry people here.

The focus on developed world debt and currency crises is distracting from the need for the upcoming G8 summit to deal with those two major problems that result in millions dying each year from starvation, under-nutrition and lack of clean water.

The developed world crisis are relatively minor by comparison and only affect the majority here due to huge inequality, plus tax havens letting the wealthiest and big banks and firms avoid paying massive amounts of tax with the collusion of governments and politicans, plus rampant deregulation and the failure to re-regulate. Even with all that few people are starving or going without clean water here, though some are going hungry or dying of cold.

Sources

(1) = Scotsman 27 Jan 2012 'Alex Salmond: ‘Chancellor would bite our hands off to keep the pound’',
http://www.scotsman.com/the-scotsman/politics/alex-salmond-chancellor-would-bite-our-hands-off-to-keep-the-pound-1-2081286 ; 'However, Mr Salmond said there were 67 countries in the world that were using another nation’s currency, “either in formal or informal monetary unions at the present moment”, while remaining independent.'

(2) = Ha Joon Chang (2010) ‘23 Things they don’t tell you about capitalism’, Allen Lane, 2010

(3) = Business Insider 20 Nov 2011 'Why German Taxpayers Should Be Forced To Bail Out Italians And Greeks',
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-11-20/markets/30421346_1_german-banks-german-state-eurozone

(4) = Trading Economics 'Energy imports; net (% of energy use) in Greece', http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/energy-imports-net-percent-of-energy-use-wb-data.html

(5) = guardian.co.uk 06 Nov 2011 'Eurozone crisis: Greek PM George Papandreou to resign', http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/06/greece-george-papandreou ; 'The socialist prime minister has faced growing calls to step down at home and abroad since shocking markets and world leaders with an ill-timed decision, announced last Monday, to put the 27 October bailout agreement to popular vote. After being publicly dressed down by French President Nicholas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the 59-year-old politician was forced to back down and shelve the referendum plan...'

(6) = Wall Street Journal Online 16 May 2012 'Greece's Radical Leftist Syriza Secures First Place- Poll', http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120516-711097.html

(7) = Bloomberg 17 May 2012 'New Democracy Moves Ahead of Syriza, Greek Poll Shows', http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17/new-democracy-moves-ahead-of-syriza-greek-poll-shows-1-.html

(8) = Bloomberg 23 Feb 2012 'European Banks Take Greek Hit After Deal', http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-23/rbs-reflects-greek-debt-damage-with-credit-agricole-days-after-aid-accord.html ; On US banks see (12) below

(9) = guardian.co.uk 17 May 2012 'German stance on Greek crisis softens as eurozone fears mount', http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/17/germany-greek-crisis-eurozone

(10) = Guardian Business Blog 18 May 2012 'Eurozone crisis live: Row after Angela Merkel 'suggests Greece holds euro referendum'', entries for 6.15pm BST and 6.23pm BST, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/18/eurozone-crisis-stock-markets-greece-spain#block-31 and http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/18/eurozone-crisis-stock-markets-greece-spain#block-32

(11) = Ha Joon Chang (2007) ‘Bad Samaritans’, Random House, London, 2008 , Chapter 9 'Lazy Japanese and Thieving Germans'

(12) = New Economics Foundation (NEF) 16 Feb 2012 'Greece should reject the Troika and default on its own terms', http://neweconomics.org/blog/2012/02/16/greece-should-reject-the-troika-and-default-on-its-own-terms by James Meadway, Senior Economist, NEF

(13) = Bloomberg 06 Mar 2012 'Goldman Secret Greece Loan Shows Two Sinners as Client Unravels', http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-06/goldman-secret-greece-loan-shows-two-sinners-as-client-unravels.html

(14) = Scotsman 18 May 2012 'Greek debt deal set to cost RBS £825 million' http://www.scotsman.com/news/international/greek-debt-deal-set-to-cost-rbs-825-million-1-2154674

(15) = Guardian 11 Oct 2011 'Tax havens and the FTSE 100: the full list', http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/oct/11/ftse100-subsidiaries-tax-data

(16) = Observer 13 May 2012 'This crushing debt trap threatens to bring down the whole of Europe', by Will Hutton , http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/may/13/will-hutton-euro-in-danger

(17) = guardian.co.uk 05 May 2010 'Reform the euro or bin it', by Joseph Stiglitz (former World Bank economist, also quoting nobel prize winning economist Robert Mundell) , http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/05/reform-euro-or-bin-it-greece-germany

(18) = Ha Joon Chang (2007) ‘Bad Samaritans’, Random House, London, 2008 , Chapter 2 'The Double life of Daniel Defoe - How did the rich countries get rich'? ; also Chapters 3 & 4

(19) = BBC News 13 May 2012 'Harrabin's Notes: Safe assumptions' , http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18020432