Why The Gaza War's Aims Are All Lies Or Impossibilities

The Israeli governments stated aims in the Gaza war are to get all hostages rescued or released, prevent an another October 7^th happening, and eliminate Hamas as a supposed threat to Israel’s existence.

Aim is Getting All Hostages Back? – A Lie

Since Hamas took hostages, as in the past, to trade them for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons, no war’s needed to get them released. And Hamas has no motive to release more hostages as long as the Israeli government says it will continue the war in Gaza to “eliminate Hamas” even if all hostages were released in more temporary ceasefires. Which is why Hamas has said, for three months now, that they’ll only resume hostage negotiations if IDF attacks on Gaza end and the IDF withdraws from Gaza (1) – (3).

Since Netanyahu says an offensive on Rafah would only be delayed, not cancelled, by further hostage releases, this also makes the stories about hostage negotiations currently progressing just propaganda, so Biden and Netanyahu can say “we tried, but Hamas rejected a ceasefire” and resume the war to replace Hamas as the government of Gaza, at any cost in the lives of civilians and children (4).

What’s more the IDF in its 4 month war , while killing over 10,000 Palestinian children, and blowing the limbs off of, and/or orphaning many more, has killed at least as many hostages as it’s rescued (three). Flooding tunnels with sea water and razing entire neighbourhoods doesn’t suggest concern for either the lives of hostages or Palestinian civilians either. The mother of one hostage whose body was found along with another hostage in a tunnel by the IDF also says the IDF won’t tell her exactly how he died and says they gassed the tunnel (5) – (7).

It's completely wrong for Hamas to hold civilians, let alone children and ill elderly people hostage. Arguably the soldiers among the hostages could be prisoners of war who it would be legitimate to exchange for Palestinian prisoners. But the Israeli government is giving it no incentive to release any of them. So it’s clear that the hostages don’t matter much to Netanyahu or senior IDF other than for their propaganda value.

And Israel has around 9000 Palestinians in its prisons, all jailed by military courts, so  little chance of a fair trial. Many haven’t had any trial at all and don’t know what they’re charged with, held indefinitely under “administrative detention”. There is much coverage of what Israeli hostages have endured, but less of Palestinian prisoners being beaten daily since October 7^th, some having bones broken, and still less of at least nine having died in the past few months, often beaten to death (8) – (13).

Aim is Preventing More October Sevenths? – A Lie

Next there’s preventing another October seventh and removing the supposedly “existential” threat Hamas poses to Israel. This again, wouldn’t require any war, as the October 7^th attacks couldn’t have happened if Netanyahu and senior IDF hadn’t dismissed multiple intelligence reports. Hamas trained for months in open air camps. Hamas TV showed a dramatization of their armed wing attacking Kibbutz and military bases near the Gaza border , and Hamas leader Yayha Sinwar in the same programme said that was exactly what Hamas were planning. Israel has plenty of aerial observation drones, observation towers on the border fence, and an entire intelligence unit of Arabic speakers who can infiltrate among Palestinians (14) – (16).

In July 2022 two Israeli military intelligence officers submitted a report titled “Hamas’ Mass Invasion Plan’ detailing pretty much everything that would happen. Their superiors dismissed it.  In the months and days before the attacks, Israeli military border observers reported greatly increased activity by armed groups, including members of them near the border fence looking at maps and pointing to parts of the fence. Their commanders ignored these reports (17) – (19).

And in the ten days before the attack Egyptian ministers repeatedly phoned Netanyahu to pass on reports from Egyptian intelligence that Gazan armed groups were planning something “big”, “unusual” and “horrible”. Despite this Netanyahu’s government made no preparations, moved two commando units from the Gaza area to the West Bank, and let most of the military go on holiday anyway (20) – (21)

Aim is “Eliminating Hamas” as “an existential threat to Israel” ? –

An impossibility and a lie

Finally there’s eliminating Hamas. Now it’s quite possible Israel, if the IDF reoccupied Gaza permanently, could remove Hamas from government in Gaza. However the Israeli government says it’s not going to have a permanent occupation, which would make that impossible.

Even IDF intelligence assesses that, after the war, Hamas will at the least continue to exist as a “terrorist or guerrilla group”, as it existed before the 2006 Palestinian Authority Legislative elections, and before Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 (Which was only done in return for the US privately telling Israel it could forget about any Palestinian state or peace process, paving the way for more settlers and Sharon and Netanyahu’s West Bank annexations) (22) – (24).

There is no way to prevent all terrorist attacks , which can be carried out with a knife, truck, car, small amounts of explosives etc. And since Hamas’ arms are mostly limited to automatic rifles, RPGs and home made rockets, it could easily smuggle more of those into Gaza and the West Bank in the long run.

On top of that there is also a Hamas presence in Lebanon (many of Hezbollah’s recruits also being the descendants of Palestinian refugees refused citizenship there) and its political leadership in Qatar.

So “eliminating Hamas” is neither possible, nor necessary to protect Israel’s existence, which, as the strongest military in the middle East, with the US superpower as an ally and the majority of Arab states at peace with and quietly allied to it for decades (Jordan, Egypt, Saudi, the majority of the “gulf monarchies), isn’t at threat.

The IDF (Israeli military or ‘Israeli Defence Forces’) has 169,000 full time troops, 400,00 reservists, hundreds of advanced combat aircraft and thousands of tanks, APCs and mobile artillery pieces, plus lots of night vision gear. Hamas and every Palestinian armed group combined, with numbers in the tens of thousands and little but automatic rifles, RPGs and some home made rockets, are not remotely capable of defeating them as every one sided Gaza war and even October 7^th once the IDF counter-attacked show (25).

Even unprepared, the IDF said on October 10^th 2023 that it had identified the bodies of 1,500 attackers killed in Israel. Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev in a later interview said 200 more burnt bodies originally thought to be victims of Hamas were found to be Hamas attackers (watch video from 6 minutes 25 seconds).The IDF also captured many of the attackers in Israel. Since it estimates the attackers numbers at 3000, that means that it killed or captured most of them in Israel, the rest fleeing back to Gaza. Hamas killed about 300 IDF soldiers on October 7^th, most just border observers, and captured a few dozen. So in Hamas’ greatest ever “success” against an IDF unprepared by its own government and senior officers ignoring intelligence reports, Hamas’ losses were 6 times the IDF’s (26) – (29).

The idea that Hamas, or every Palestinian armed group combined, could ever defeat the IDF is ludicrous. Even if Hezbollah and Iran were to get involved, Israel would still outmatch all of these combined. And the US superpower would get involved, which is another reason Iran doesn’t want to go to war with Israel.

The Real Aims of The War

The real aims of the war are first to “re-establish deterrence” as Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on 10^th October 2023,  via the Dahiya doctrine. Israeli political and military leaders believe that inflicting massive levels of casualties, suffering and destruction not just on combatants but on civilian populations and infrastructure will terrify their enemies into not attacking Israel again. Few seem to worry about it also creating hatred, anger and a desire for revenge (30).

Second to remove Hamas, as an ally of Iran, from being one half of the elected government of the Palestinian Authority, an aim of Israel and its allies since the 2006 PA legislative elections, but one which, until now, was sometimes over ridden by the wish to keep Palestinians divided.

Third to keep Netanyahu and his coalition and senior IDF officers in position in the hope public opinion will turn back in their favour after their negligence in dismissing intelligence reports.

What’s The Realistic Alternative To The Gaza War

So what is a viable way to end the conflict?

The best chance of ending terrorist attacks by Palestinians against Israelis has always been to give Palestinians their own state. While the media and politicians regularly repeat that Hamas “refuses to recognise Israel’s right to exist”, Israel has never accepted a real Palestinian state with any sovereignty had a right to exist. It’s only offers of “a state” have been one with no military, whose borders and airspace would be controlled by the Israeli military, who could enter this state’s “territory” at will.

And Hamas did repeatedly offer negotiations on a decade long truce (Hudna – usually leading to permanent peace) with Israel in return for a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. A former head of Mossad, Efraim Halevy, repeatedly said Hamas knew it could never defeat Israel militarily, and Israel should try negotiations, having nothing to lose since it would remain massively militarily stronger whatever the result (31) – (34).

Shlomo Gazit, a former head of Israel’s Shin Bet military intelligence called Israeli government’s precondition of full recognition before talks even began “ridiculous or an excuse not to negotiate” (35).

And in any case, what does formal recognition matter, if there was peace rather than killing by both sides?

Since every Israeli government, of every party, seems to either oppose even a pretend Palestinian state, or oppose a real one, and Israel is massively militarily stronger than the Palestinians, the only way to get any Israeli government to accept a sovereign Palestinian state in the whole West Bank and Gaza is by external pressure – i.e boycotts of Israel products, divestment (companies stopping investing in Israel) and/or sanctions by governments. The official BDS campaign may aim at a one state solution of the type that ended South African Apartheid. But the more likely result if such a campaign was successful would be two states, so you can support a BDS campaign and support a two state solution.

Saying you “support a two state solution” while opposing any pressure on the massively stronger side to allow one is like saying you support peoples’ right to fly to America, so long as they do it only by flapping their arms.

Sources

(1) = www.theguardian.com 22 Nov2023 ‘Benjamin Netanyahu warns war will continue until Hamas is eliminated’,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/22/gaza-ceasefire-due-to-come-into-effect-on-thursday-morning

(2) = Jerusalem Post website 20 Feb 2024 ‘US envoy heads to Israel, Egypt for talks on Rafah, Gaza hostages’,
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-787997

(3) =  Times of Israel website 21 Dec 2023 ‘Hamas says no hostage negotiations unless fighting in Gaza stops; Israel: No chance’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-says-no-hostage-negotiations-unless-fighting-in-gaza-stops-israel-no-chance/

(4) = Times of Israel 17 Feb 2024 ‘PM: IDF will operate in Rafah even if there is a new hostage deal; can’t leave a quarter of Hamas intact’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/pm-stonewalls-when-asked-why-idf-didnt-enter-rafah-at-outset-of-ground-offensive/

(5) = Jerusalem Post website 16 Dec 2023 ‘Three hostages mistakenly killed by IDF fire screamed ‘help,’ held white flag’,
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-778272

(6) = Times of Israel website 30 Jan 2024 ‘IDF confirms flooding Hamas tunnels in Gaza with seawater’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-confirms-flooding-hamas-tunnels-in-gaza-with-seawater/

(7) = Times Of Israel website 17 Jan 2024 ‘IDF says remains of recovered hostages show they were not killed in strike’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-says-remains-of-recovered-hostages-show-they-were-not-killed-in-airstrike/

(8) = Hamoked Center For the Defense Of The Individual ‘8,926 "Security" Inmates Are Held In Prisons Inside Israel’,
https://hamoked.org/prisoners-charts.php#

(9) = B’Tselem ‘The Military Courts’,
https://www.btselem.org/topic/military_courts

(10) = B’TSelem ‘Administrative Detention’,
https://www.btselem.org/administrative_detention

(11) = BBC News 01 Dec 2023 ‘Released Palestinians allege abuse in Israeli jails’,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67581915

(12) = Times Of Israel website 21 Feb 2024 ‘Palestinian terror convict dies in Israeli custody under undisclosed circumstances’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinian-terror-convict-dies-in-israeli-custody-under-unclear-circumstances/

(13) = Times Of Israel website 21 Dec 2023 ‘Police question 19 guards in connection with fatal beating of Palestinian prisoner’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/police-question-19-guards-in-connection-with-fatal-beating-of-palestinian-prisoner/

(14) = CNN 12 Oct 2023 ‘Hamas militants trained for its deadly attack in plain sight and less than a mile from Israel’s heavily fortified border’,
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/12/middleeast/hamas-training-site-gaza-israel-intl/index.html/

(15) = Times of Israel website 05 Dec 2023 ‘More details unveiled of IDF intel on Oct. 7 plans, consults hours before Hamas attack’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/more-details-unveiled-of-idf-intel-on-oct-7-plans-consults-hours-before-hamas-attack/

(16) = Jewish Virtual Library ‘The Mista’arvim’
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/the-mista-arvim

(17) = See (15) above

(18) = Times Of Israel website 24 Nov 2023 ‘Reports: Senior IDF officer dismissed pre-Oct. 7 intel on Hamas invasion as ‘fantasy’’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/reports-senior-idf-officer-dismissed-pre-oct-7-intel-on-hamas-invasion-as-fantasy/

(19) = Politico EU 21 Nov 2023 ‘Our warnings on Hamas were ignored, Israel’s women border troops say’,
https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-border-troops-women-hamas-warnings-war-october-7-benjamin-netanyahu/

(20) = Times Of Israel website 09 Oct 2023 ‘Egypt intelligence official says Israel ignored repeated warnings of ‘something big’’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-intelligence-official-says-israel-ignored-repeated-warnings-of-something-big/

(21) = see (15) above

(22) = Times of Israel website 16 Feb 2024 ‘Report: IDF intel assesses that Hamas will ‘survive as terror group’ post-war’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-idf-intel-assesses-that-hamas-will-survive-as-terror-group-post-war/

(23) = Haaretz website 06 Oct 2004 ‘Top PM Aide: Gaza Plan Aims to Freeze the Peace Process’,
https://www.haaretz.com/2004-10-06/ty-article/top-pm-aide-gaza-plan-aims-to-freeze-the-peace-process/0000017f-e56c-dea7-adff-f5ff1fc40000

(24) = PBS 28 Dec 2022 ‘Netanyahu’s government vows to expand West Bank settlements, annex occupied territory’,
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/netanyahus-government-vows-to-expand-west-bank-settlements-annex-occupied-territory

(25) = France 24/AP 16 Oct 2023 ‘The Israel-Hamas military balance’,
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231016-the-israel-hamas-military-balance

(26) = France24/AFP 15 Dec 2023 ‘Israel social security data reveals true picture of Oct 7 deaths’,
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231215-israel-social-security-data-reveals-true-picture-of-oct-7-deaths

(27) = MSNBC 16 Nov 2023 ‘That was a mistake’: Mehdi challenges Israeli adviser Mark Regev on false Israeli claims’,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HD-yRuTasHU (watch from 6 minutes 25 seconds)

(28) = Times Of Israel website24 Oct 2023 ‘Kill, behead, rape: Interrogated Hamas members detail atrocities against civilians’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/kill-behead-rape-interrogated-hamas-members-detail-atrocities-against-civilians/

(29) = Times of Israel website 01 Nov 2023 ‘IDF estimates 3,000 Hamas terrorists invaded Israel in Oct. 7 onslaught’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-estimates-3000-hamas-terrorists-invaded-israel-in-oct-7-onslaught/

(30) = Times of Israel website 10 Oct 2023 ‘Gallant: Israel moving to full offense, Gaza will never go back to what it once was’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/gallant-israel-moving-to-full-offense-gaza-will-never-go-back-to-what-it-once-was/

(31) = https://inplaceoffear.blogspot.com/2011/05/even-former-mossad-and-shin-bet-chiefs.html

(32) = Ynet news 21 Sep 2005 ‘Hamas: We'll rethink call to destroy Israel’,
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3145475,00.html

(33) = Tuastad, Dag Henrik (2010) The Hudna: Hamas's Concept of a Long-term Ceasefire, PRIO Policy Brief, 9. Oslo: PRIO.,
https://www.prio.org/publications/7356

(34) = www.independent.co.uk 10 Jun 2015 ‘It's time for Israel to talk to Hamas, says former Mossad head’,
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/it-s-time-for-israel-to-talk-to-hamas-says-former-mossad-head-10311651.html

(35) = Forward 09 Feb 2007 ‘Experts Question Wisdom of Boycotting Hamas’,
https://forward.com/news/10055/experts-question-wisdom-of-boycotting-hamas/

Leaving Putin a fig leaf to hide his defeat behind might reduce famine deaths worldwide and avoid nuclear war

Summary : Putin is guilty of war crimes in his invasion of Ukraine. Denying him victory war important to deter other wars. But completely defeating him could carry as much risk of nuclear war as allowing him a victory that made him overconfident would. So it would  be safer to offer him a fig leaf to hide his defeat behind in the form of Crimea and the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk his Ukrainian separatist allies have held since 2014. There are also more famine deaths in Yemen, Sudan, Afghanistan, Somalia and Ethiopia caused as long as the war continues due to disruption of grain exports from Ukraine and Russia and chemicals needed for fertiliser production from Russia. These shortages especially affect food aid as they are sources of cheap grain from the UN’s World Food Programme. And may lead to more famines both through price rises and through reduced food production worldwide due to farmers in poor and middle income countries not being able to afford fertiliser. Any compromise with Putin will be a bitter pill to swallow, but, if he accepts it, less bad than millions more famine deaths or the risk of unintended escalation to nuclear war. (Continue reading for full post of under 1,200 words)

 

How The Ukraine War Contributes to Famine Deaths Across Africa and the Middle East

Vladimir Putin is a dictator who is overseeing war crimes, including the deliberate targeting of civilians. Denying him outright victory by arming and training the Ukrainians has made more invasions less likely. But every week the war in Ukraine continues, not only are Ukrainian civilians killed, but millions starve to death in famines in Afghanistan, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia, partly through disruption of Russian and Ukrainian grain exports. In Somalia alone, one child is hospitalised with acute malnutrition every minute (1) – (2).

The UN’s World Food Programme says the war needs to end ; that it gets 50% of its food aid from Russia and Ukraine and got two thirds from Ukraine alone in 2021 ; that grain exports from Ukraine have fallen by three quarters since the invasion. These figures include the time since the July UN brokered export deal under which Russia agreed to give safe passage to ships exporting Ukrainian grain, and , unofficially, sanctions on Russian grain and fertiliser, exports were to be eased.. Russia is already threatening not to renew the deal in November, claiming its own grain and fertiliser exports haven’t been permitted in practice. (3) – (6).

What’s more experts warn that the current Ukrainian export levels, almost equal to pre-war ones, are unlikely to be maintained due to damage to crops, disruption of planting crops for future seasons, Russia occupying much farmland,  shortages of labourers, money and the high price of fertiliser (driven up by sanctions on Russia which is a major producer of chemicals used to make it). As well as Russian attacks on grain and sunflower oil storage facilities (6).

Increasing global fertiliser prices, also caused partly by shortages of potassium and phosphate of which Russia was the key supplier risk reducing food production worldwide , which could lead  to global food shortages (7).

Trying to Completely Defeat Putin is as likely to cause nuclear war as allowing him a victory

Then there’s the growing risk of nuclear war. It is certainly important to prevent Putin conquering other countries, or annexing big parts of them, as this is both bad in itself and could lead him to overconfidence that led to war with NATO, which could escalate to nuclear war.

But if Putin believes he faces total defeat, that could lead to him using tactical nuclear weapons and risk escalation to nuclear war too.

Former Chair of the US Joint chiefs Of Staff Mike Mullen is among those calling for negotiations to  end the war, as the risk of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons increases. Zelensky, understandably outraged at Putin targeting civilians, says Ukraine will only negotiate with Putin’s successor. But if Putin thinks his position is under threat, he may use nuclear weapons to try to force concessions from Ukraine to save his Presidency (8) – (9).

It seems very unlikely that Putin would began an escalation by directly firing nuclear weapons at NATO countries.. But the risks of unintentional escalation in stages are more serious. For instance, Putin fires a nuclear weapon over the Baltic, the North Sea or the Black Sea as a threat to try to bring Ukraine and NATO to the negotiating table. Or uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine itself, on Kyiv even.

Some analysts think an immediate NATO response could use limited or even massive conventional air and missile strikes on Russian forces in Ukraine.

The Russian government and military have claimed they could block these by shooting down GPS satellites used for targeting, or using other technology to disrupt GPS based targeting systems. Yet Russian forces in Ukraine haven’t blocked it, probably because too many of them are still reliant on GPS themselves  to make it practical. And US forces having been training for years in operating without GPS (10) – (12).

Nor could Russia destroying GPS systems prevent US, French or UK nuclear weapons’ being targeted, as their primary guidance systems are inertial not GPS (13).

So assume Russia can’t prevent NATO conventional counter-strikes. How would Russia respond if most of its conventional military was destroyed, it faces loss of status as any kind of major power, and its only remaining cards to play are nuclear weapons?. The Russian response might not be surrender or admission of defeat, but a further nuclear escalation to try to deter further US attacks, that could lead to global nuclear war.

A Possible Compromise

Any peace deal will require compromise by both sides. This would likely mean Ukraine formally ceding Crimea, as Sevastopol is the only deep water port Russia has access to as a black Sea naval base giving Mediterranean access. No Russian government will give it up any more than the UK would give up Gibraltar, or the US Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. Guaranteed water supplies from the Kherson region on would also be required, though Kherson oblast should be returned to Ukraine. Ceding only areas held by separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk since 2014 would complete a fig leaf for Putin to hide his defeat behind, without letting him gain new territory from the invasion (14).

The Ukrainian side of course will, completely understandably, object to the idea of negotiating with Putin after what he’s done, and to ceding any territory, even territory Putin or Russian backed Ukrainian separatists, took over in 2014 rather than since the February invasion. But the lives of millions of people dying in famines cannot be ignored when making decisions. Nor can the risk of escalation to nuclear war, which, along with nuclear winter, would kill a third of the world’s population through starvation, on a conservative estimate (15).

NATO countries are supplying most of Ukraine’s most advanced weaponry and ammunition for it. This gives them considerable negotiating leverage over Ukraine should they wish to use it behind the scenes to try to get an end to the war that quickly restores as much food aid as possible to people starving around the world, and eliminates the threat of nuclear war.

This kind of pressure on allies would not be pleasant for anyone involved, but the alternatives to it may be worse. NATO governments may already be limiting supplies of advanced weapons to Ukraine to try to ensure Putin neither wins nor is so completely defeated that he turns to the nuclear option. That’s far from an exact science though and risks miscalculation too.

Putin’s agreement to give up all territory except that he and his allies held in 2014 can’t be guaranteed of course. His latest Address to Russians included ambivalent statements that could be interpreted either way on whether he thinks Ukraine and Russia are separate countries or not. He said “Russians and Ukrainians are actually one people” but “we ended up in different countries unfortunately” (16).

But if he’s seeing a serious risk of total defeat and losing power in the long run, which for him could mean exile, jail or even being killed by allies of those he did the same to, he might accept it as preferable to total defeat.

It wouldn’t be as satisfying as seeing Putin completely defeated, but complete satisfaction that comes at the cost of millions more people starving to death, many of them children, let alone global nuclear Armageddon, is the kind of satisfaction that we should forgo.

What you can do

You can donate to the World Food Programme who are getting food aid to people everywhere from Ukraine to Somalia.

 

Sources

(1) = World food Programme 15 Sep 2022 ‘'This war must end': The Ukraine crisis seven months on’, https://www.wfp.org/stories/war-must-end-ukraine-crisis-seven-months

(20) = see (1) above

(3) = Wall Street Journal 19 Oct 2022 ‘Ukraine’s Grain Exports Recover to Near Prewar Levels’, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-grain-exports-recover-to-near-prewar-levels-11666186579 (article says analysts say agricultural exports may well fall below pre-war levels again soon due to destruction of crops, disruption of harvesting, Russian attacks on storage facilities)

(4) = Carnegie politika 26 Jul 2022 ‘What’s in the Ukraine Grain Deal for Russia?’, https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/87576 (on Russia getting informal easing of exports or Russian grain and fertiliser from the deal)

(5) = Politico.EU 13 Oct 2022 ‘Moscow threatens to exit Black Sea grain deal’, https://www.politico.eu/article/moscow-threatens-to-exit-black-sea-grain-deal/

(6) = See (3) above

(7) = Al Jazeera 18 Jun 2022 ‘How did the Russia-Ukraine war trigger a global food crisis?’, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/6/18/explainer-how-did-russia-ukraine-war-trigger-a-food-crisis

(8 ) = Responsible Statecraft 10 Oct 2022 ‘Former Joint Chiefs chair calls for talks to end Ukraine war’, https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/10/10/former-joint-chiefs-chair-calls-for-talks-to-end-ukraine-war/

(9) = Kyiv Independent 20 Oct 2022 ‘Blinken says Putin has no interest in 'meaningful diplomacy'’,
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/blinken-says-putin-has-no-interest-in-meaningful-diplomacy ;
3^rd paragraph ‘On Oct. 7, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine won't negotiate with Putin. “We are ready for a dialogue with Russia, but with another president of Russia,” he said after Putin declared the annexation of four Ukrainian regions – Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.’

(10) = Space News 19 Apr 2022 ‘Op-ed | Get the Bullseye Off GPS’, https://spacenews.com/op-ed-get-the-bullseye-off-gps/

(11) = C4ISRNET 22 Jul 2022 , Why isn’t Russia doing more to jam GPS in Ukraine?  , https://www.c4isrnet.com/opinion/2022/07/22/why-isnt-russia-jamming-gps-harder-in-ukraine/

(12) = Popular Mechanics 01 Feb 2018 ‘The Air Force Turned Off GPS To Rehearse a War Without It’, https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a15949440/air-force-no-gps-red-flag/

(13) = http://www.military-today.com/missiles/top_10_icbms.htm

(14) = Responsible Statecraft 18 Oct 2022 ‘Why Crimea is the key to the Ukraine war’, https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/10/18/why-crimea-is-the-key-to-the-ukraine-war/

(15) = LA times 15 Aug 2022 ‘Even a limited nuclear war could kill a third of world’s population, study shows’, https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2022-08-15/even-limited-nuclear-war-would-kill-billions-study-finds

(16) = TASS 27 Oct 2022 ‘Putin partially agrees to view special military operation as ‘civil war’’,  https://tass.com/politics/1528861

Boris and his ministers' claims to have “followed the science” don't mean much - They didn't prepare properly, they were careless & they acted too late

It seems all that any member of the UK government has to do to silence criticism of their handling of the virus epidemic is to say “We were following the science. Are you questioning the expert advice of scientists and medical experts?”. This immediately gets the desired “of course not” response from the journalist, like a hypnotist saying “look into my eyes, you are feeling very sleepy” to someone very susceptible.

Nor are Keir Starmer or the Labour front bench ready to bring up such obvious questions as why, with the exception of 200 British citizens who had been in or near Wuhan, most people flying into the UK from then covid-19 outbreak centres like China, Italy and Iran were not put through mandatory quarantine or testing (1) – (2).

The assumption seems to be that to question any expert’s claims or opinions is to commit the unforgivable sin of “populism” and become a demagogue who ignores facts.

This is based on a view of scientific and medical opinion on any subject as always unified, or that the majority opinion among experts must always be accepted. Yet there are often disagreements among experts. For instance on 12^th March the UK’s Chief Scientific Officer Patrick Vallance held a press conference along with Boris Johnson in which he explained that the government’s strategy was based on spreading the virus through enough of the non-vulnerable population that they would develop “herd immunity” and not pass it on to those most at risk (3).

This was immediately met with criticism by hundreds of experts . Professor Hugh Pennington later said such a strategy was impossible without vaccines, which are likely a year to 18 months from having gone through enough trials to be proven safe and effective. The response was so negative that it contributed to the government disowning herd immunity and claiming it had never been their strategy (4) – (6).

Yet the Chief Medical and Scientific officers who approved that strategy are seen as beyond criticism. So when they tell us that “there is no evidence” that mandatory quarantine and testing of people flying into the country from countries with outbreaks of it would have slowed the spread of covid-19 we’re meant to accept it without question (7).

The other line used was that it had been tried in Italy and failed. This ignores the fact that air travel is the obvious means by which the virus spread so fast. And that Italy brought in a flight ban too late. Yes, many people with covid-19 will have flown into the UK before we knew about it. So maybe it’s too late to make a difference now. But surely if they’d done it early on, reducing the number of additional infected people entering the country would be a way of at least slowing the spread of the virus until we have done enough trials to find effective treatments and/or vaccines for it?

And every government in the world says it’s basing its policies on the science, yet different countries have very different policies. Sweden has no lock-down at all. The UK still has 15,000 people a day flying in even during “lock-down”, while Singapore banned all flights entry except cargo and humanitarian ones. And the UK has also said it plans to implement quarantine on anyone arriving in the country for the second phase of the virus (8) – (9).

 The UK government’s own advisers even disagreed among themselves on what lockdown measures to take, and opinion polls, as much as WHO advice and numbers of deaths and cases, drove changes in policy in mid-March (10).

Then there are Boris’ speeches – like one on 3^rd February in which he said “And in that context, we are starting to hear some bizarre autarkic rhetoric, when barriers are going up, and when there is a risk that new diseases such as coronavirus will trigger a panic and a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational to the point of doing real and unnecessary economic damage, then at that moment humanity needs some government somewhere that is willing at least to make the case powerfully for freedom of exchange, some country ready to take off its Clark Kent spectacles and leap into the phone booth and emerge with its cloak flowing as the supercharged champion, of the right of the populations of the earth to buy and sell freely among each other. And here in Greenwich in the first week of February 2020, I can tell you in all humility that the UK is ready for that role.” (11).

This sounds like Boris was initially more worried about “over-reaction” to covid-19 harming the economy than he was about covid-19 killing lots of people. The Conservative party from Thatcher on has always prioritised the economy above everything, even when policies based on this actually damaged the economy in practice. Thatcher was strongly opposed to Apartheid in South Africa, not so much because it was racist, undemocratic or morally wrong, but because she saw it as economically inefficient (12).

Add that to the “herd immunity” press conference and the failure to quarantine or test people flying in, and it looks a lot like the UK government’s initial strategy was initially the one it later disowned – “herd immunity” and “letting the virus, as it were, spread through the population” as Boris put it in a daytime TV interview, though he did not explicitly say this was his position, only “one of the theories” (13).

Then, when Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London estimated a worst case scenario of half a million people dying as a result, and the opinion polls on the government’s handling of the crisis didn’t look good,  the government decided it better do something fast (14).

Failures by May’s Government in 2017
– And by Johnson’s in 2020

True the WHO didn’t say covid19 was a pandemic and a serious threat until 11^th of March. But epidemiologists had been warning for years that another respiratory virus pandemic like the Spanish flu of 1918 was only a matter of “when and from where?” not if”, especially after SARS , MERS and Swine flu epidemics (15) – (16).

In 2017 the UK Department of Health rejected advice from its new and emerging respiratory viruses threat advisory group (nervtag) to stockpile personal protective equipment (PPE), for all NHS staff, on grounds of cost. Telling them to change the advice to exclude eye protection on grounds of cost (17).

In the same year the NHS held Exercise Cygnus simulating how it would deal with a respiratory virus epidemic The final report was made classified (18). So it is not credible for the government to claim no one could have predicted this. The only parts that were unpredictable were when it would arrive, and where it would start.

And it was no secret to anyone that the Chinese government’s public statements can’t be trusted, nor that big, powerful countries like China have disproportionate influence in bodies like the WHO. China had previously tried to cover up SARS at first too. So any government that didn’t assume the worst case scenario on covid-19 – and that the reality could well be much worse than the Chinese government or the WHO were saying – was being negligent.

This, again, was excessive faith in experts, and in this case experts operating under major political pressures from the bigger members of their organisation.

Graph - Excess deaths are the amount that deaths in a particular week exceed the average number of people who died in that week in the previous 5 years. Many experts believe this is a good indication of the impact of covid-19, though not all excess deaths will be due to it. Source – Sky News report using data from the EUROMOMO project at the University of Copenhagen.

Trump’s accusations against the WHO, while obviously an attempt to distract from his own failures, have some basis in fact. Taiwan had sent experts to Wuhan to talk with doctors there in January. On January 16th they reported that the virus could be transferred between humans. At the time the Chinese government was still claiming it could only be caught from bats ; although a WHO official had told the press on the 14^th that given the SARs and MERS pandemic, it would not be surprising if it could be transmitted between humans, and that this may have happened in 41 cases. Taiwan being excluded from WHO meetings also helped the Chinese government give a false impression of the threat level from the virus. (19) – (20)

We shouldn’t ignore experts,  but remember views among experts in the same field may differ. Those in official positions working for governments or international organisations may be chosen for having the views those in power prefer to believe. Senior ranks of some expert bodies may be more politicians than experts, willing to modify their views to keep their position, or rise higher. Then CIA director George Tenet’s assurance to President Bush that proving Iraq had weapons of mass destruction would be a “slam dunk” was one example.

And if opinion among the government’s expert advisers is divided, as we know it has been in the UK, the advice is likely to end up being to take less action rather than more, to get concensus.

True, Boris and the current cabinet were not the government in 2017. But they were the government by December 2019, when we first knew of the virus in China. And in late January, when the UK got its first confirmed case.

A study in the Lancet in early as January 24^th warned that the virus could be transmitted between humans, and that the estimated mortality rate of over 3% was similar to that of the Spanish Flu at an estimated under 5%, with both diseases killing so many people because they were so contagious.

On the 31^st of April another study in the Lancet said that ‘Therefore, in the absence of substantial public health interventions that are immediately applied, further international seeding and subsequent local establishment of epidemics might become inevitable. On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic in the absence of mitigation. Nevertheless, it might still be possible to secure containment of the spread of infection such that initial imported seeding cases or even early local transmission does not lead to a large epidemic in locations outside Wuhan. To possibly succeed, substantial, even draconian measures that limit population mobility should be seriously and immediately considered in affected areas, as should strategies to drastically reduce within-population contact rates through cancellation of mass gatherings, school closures, and instituting work-from-home arrangements, for example.’ (21)

A summary of the last sentence was tweeted by the editor of the Lancet, Richard Horton, on the same day.

The first confirmed case of covid-19 in the UK had been 2 days earlier on January 29^th. No serious measures were taken. A month later on 28^th February the first proven case of transmission  between people in the UK. Still no action. The Cheltenham Festival even went ahead in early March (23).

It would be two more weeks before any serious measures were announced. Implementing lock-downs sooner, and making them include more limits on numbers flying in and quarantine of those allowed in, could have contained and slowed the spread of the virus, reducing deaths.

The government claim this would have resulted in people not obeying lock-down measures because some would think it an over-reaction. But New Zealand seems to show otherwise. While its lockdown didn’t come till around the same time as the UK’s, it began it before there were any confirmed deaths in the country – and its public are mostly abiding by it. The government in the UK could have explained the seriousness of the situation at any time by using the Lancet studies and other evidence as back up. They chose not to. It’s hard to believe that Boris’ reckless character and his and his party’s ideological beliefs weren’t a big factor here. It was a huge mistake and many people thought at the time that the government was crazy not to be bringing in more measures sooner (24).

Even on the economic impact the evidence from studies of lockdown decisions by different US cities in the 1918 pandemic is against the idea that there is a trade off between economic impact and avoiding virus deaths. The cities which locked-down soonest and for longest had both the least deaths and the fastest economic recoveries – though most of their lock-downs didn’t last more than 6 weeks (25).

The 1918 pandemic also gives some grounds for hope though. It killed so many people partly due to poor hygiene and not enough social distancing or isolation, especially among patients in field hospitals – things we’re partly avoiding. And the Spanish Flu is thought to have ended not due to immunisation – as it ended before vaccines were available, but because deadlier strains of a virus are less likely to survive as a dead host can’t continue passing the virus on, so evolution favoured mutation into less deadly strains. Might covid-19 do the same? (26)

 

(1) = BBC News 29 Jan 2020 ‘Coronavirus: Britons on Wuhan flights to be quarantined’, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51292590

(2) = Daily Mail 22 Mar 2020 ‘Coronavirus chaos at UK borders as flights from Italy, China and Iran - the countries with the biggest coronavirus death tolls - continue to arrive, with up to 7,500 travellers entering Britain in a week’, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8139529/Flights-Italy-Iran-China-landing-Britain-despite-UK-coronavirus-lockdown.html

(3) = ITV News 13 Mar 2020 ‘UK's chief scientific adviser tells ITV News he hopes Government's approach to coronavirus will create 'herd immunity'’, https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-13/uk-s-chief-scientific-adviser-tells-itv-news-he-hopes-government-s-approach-to-coronavirus-will-create-herd-immunity/

(4) = Press & Journal 23 Mar 2020 ‘Professor Hugh Pennington: ‘Herd immunity is a crazy idea, not really supported by any sound science’, https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/uk-politics/2093482/professor-hugh-pennington-herd-immunity-is-a-crazy-idea-not-really-supported-by-any-sound-science/

(5) = BBC News 14 Mar 2020 ‘Coronavirus: Some scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'’, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

(6) = Politics Home 15 Mar 2020 ‘Matt Hancock insists 'herd immunity' not part of government's plan for tackling coronavirus’, https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/matt-hancock-insists-herd-immunity-not-part-of-governments-plan-for-tackling-coronavirus

(7) = Telegraph 09 Mar 2020 ‘Banning flights and screening arrivals will not stop coronavirus spread, says Chief Medical Officer’,    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/09/banning-flights-screening-arrivals-will-not-stop-coronavirus/

(8) = Metro 18 Apr 2020 ‘Flights still bringing 15,000 people a day to UK with no screening’, https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/18/flights-still-bringing-15000-people-day-uk-no-screening-12574861/

(9) = www.independent.co.uk 27 Apr 2020 ‘Self-isolate for two weeks’: What a new government quarantine policy for arrivals to the UK could mean’, https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/coronavirus-flights-ferries-tests-heathrow-airport-a9484616.html

(10) = New Statesman 01 Apr 2020 ‘The real reason the UK government pursued “herd immunity” – and why it was abandoned’ , https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/04/real-reason-uk-government-pursued-herd-immunity-and-why-it-was-abandoned

(11) = www.gov.uk 3 Feb 2020  ‘PM speech in Greenwich: 3 February 2020’, https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-in-greenwich-3-february-2020

(12) = www.theguardian.com 10 Apr 2013 ‘How Margaret Thatcher helped end apartheid – despite herself’, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/10/margaret-thatcher-apartheid-mandela

(13) = Full Fact 10 Mar 2020 ‘Here is the transcript of what Boris Johnson said on This Morning about the new coronavirus’, https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnson-coronavirus-this-morning/

(14) = See (10) above

(15) = The Lancet 01 Jul 2018 , Editorial ‘How to be ready for the next influenza pandemic’, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(18)30364-5/fulltext

(16) = JAMA 09 May 2007 ‘The Next Influenza Pandemic: Can It Be Predicted?’,
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2504708/

(17) = www.theguardian.com 27 Mar 2020 ‘Advice on protective gear for NHS staff was rejected owing to cost’, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/advice-on-protective-gear-for-nhs-staff-was-rejected-owing-to-cost

(18) = www.telegraph.co.uk 28 Mar 2020 ‘Exercise Cygnus uncovered: the pandemic warnings buried by the government  ’, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/

(19) = The Nation 03 Apr 2020 ‘The WHO Ignores Taiwan. The World Pays the Price’, https://www.thenation.com/article/world/taiwan-who-coronavirus-china/

(20) = W.H.O 27 Apr 2020 ‘Timeline – COVID-19’, https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/08-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

(21) = The Lancet 15 Feb 2020 ‘A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern’, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30185-9/fulltext

(22) = The Lancet 31 Jan 2020 ‘Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study’, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

(23) = Metro 19 Apr 2020 ‘When did coronavirus first come to the UK?’,  https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/19/first-case-coronavirus-uk-covid-19-diagnosis-12578061/

(24) = New Scientist 13 Mar 2020 ‘Why is the UK approach to coronavirus so different to other countries?’, https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237385-why-is-the-uk-approach-to-coronavirus-so-different-to-other-countries/

(25) = www.dailymail.co.uk 11 Apr 2020 ‘How lockdowns could also flatten the 'economic damage curve': Study shows cities that cracked down harder during 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic recovered quicker financially than those that didn't’,  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8210647/Study-suggests-lockdowns-economic-damage-alternative.html

(26) = The Conversation 17 Mar 2020 ‘10 misconceptions about the 1918 flu, the ‘greatest pandemic in history’, https://theconversation.com/10-misconceptions-about-the-1918-flu-the-greatest-pandemic-in-history-133994