No, Turkey is not a safe country for refugees

So sending refugees back there to
“discourage others from making the dangerous journey”
is hypocrisy

Many politicians have been claiming that they are refusing refugees asylum and sending them back to Turkey in order to “discourage others from making the dangerous journey” to the EU. There are a few problems with that story.

First Turkey is not a safe country for refugees in any sense. Turkey has been deporting Syrian refugees back to Syria since January , including many children (1) – (2).

On top of that Turkish border guards have actually begun shooting Syrian refugees as they try to cross the border  (3).

And since the middle of last year there has also been civil war in Turkey itself, between the Turkish government and military and Kurdish separatist groups. There was a peace process between the two and negotiations were close to a breakthrough. Then left-wing Kurdish pro-peace HDP party won enough seats in an election to take away President Erdogan’s AKP party’s majority in parliament (4) – (5).

At the same time in Syria,  Syrian Kurdish groups with the support of the PKK (a Turkish Kurdish separatist group) took territory in Syria, on the border with Turkey. This raised Turkish fears of a Kurdish state (6).

Erdogan responded by restarting the war with the PKK and other Kurdish separatists in Turkey. Kurdish civilians in Turkey are among the casualties of Turkish military sniper fire and there is some evidence of war crimes against Kurdish civilians (7) – (8).

This means Turkish Kurds aren’t even safe, let alone Syrian Kurdish refugees.

What’s more there has been no food for many of the Syrian refugees in camps in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon since the middle of last year, when the UN was forced to cut off food aid to many of them due to lack of funds. Wealthier governments simply haven’t donated enough money to buy that food (9).

Nor is Turkey even a proper democracy for people born there – journalists and even opposition MPs who criticise the government are often jailed.  Insulting the President is a criminal offence with a sentence of 4 years or more in jail. So refugees can forget about having any rights at all (10) – (11).

Libya is even more dangerous, with the many sided civil war still going on.

Why aren’t The Muslim / Arab countries Taking Their Share?
They are – EU countries aren’t

The Gulf states including Saudi, despite some mistaken media reports, have been taking in some Syrian refugees, but given Saudi is a hardline Sunni Muslim dictatorship with religious police, no Christian, Shia Muslim, secular, or moderate Sunni Muslim Syrian refugee is likely to want to go there. (see the blog post on this link – scrolling down to bolded sub-heading ‘Are the wealthiest Arab states refusing to take in any Syrian refugees?’)

The reality is that Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon have each taken far more refugees per capita and relative to their size and wealth than any EU country. (also see comparison of the UK and Jordan on the post on this link under bolded  sub-heading ‘Is the UK taking more than its share of refugees'). (12)

The EU and the UK should take more. And as long as both are sending refugees, including children, back to Turkey, pretending it’s a “safe country”, it is impossible to be proud to be either British or European.

True, David Cameron did do a partial u-turn on his government’s refusal to allow any unaccompanied child refugees from Calais to be granted asylum in the UK. But this only allows children who arrived before 20^th March to apply for refugee status – and there is no guarantee of any who reach their 18^th birthday soon being allowed to stay after that (13).

Why are they coming here illegally?
Because They’re Given No Other Option

As for the outrage over migrants and refugees “coming here illegally” what choice are they given? The vast majority of them have none. Other than the pitiful number of 4,000 a year being selected by the UK from refugee camps in Turkey, out of millions of Syrian refugees, to one of the richest and largest countries in the EU, they have to the EU or UK illegally to make an asylum claim (14) – (15).

The obvious alternative would be for governments like the UK’s to tell their embassies in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon (and also countries bordering Libya, like Tunisia) to accept applications for asylum from people in those countries. Those whose claims were judged genuine would be granted refugee status and helped to travel safely to the UK, meaning they wouldn’t have to make dangerous journeys, pay people smugglers who are often violent criminals, or do anything illegal.

 

(1) = BBC News 15 Jan 2016 ‘Turkey 'acting illegally' over Syria refugees deportations’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35135810

(2) = Amnesty International 01 Apr 2016 ‘Turkey: Illegal mass returns of Syrian refugees expose fatal flaws in EU-Turkey deal’,
https://www.amnesty.org/en/press-releases/2016/04/turkey-illegal-mass-returns-of-syrian-refugees-expose-fatal-flaws-in-eu-turkey-deal/

(3) = Independent 31 Mar 2016 ‘Turkey 'shooting dead' Syrian refugees as they flee civil war’,
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/turkey-shooting-dead-syrian-refugees-flee-civil-war-a6960971.html

(4) = Newsweek 04 Aug 2015 ‘Turkey's Erdoğan calls on other parties to be 'realistic' after his party loses its majority’, http://europe.newsweek.com/turkey-war-kurds-pkk-331163?rm=eu

(5) = Independent 08 Jun 2015 ‘Turkey's Erdoğan calls on other parties to be 'realistic' after his party loses its majority’, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkeys-erdo-an-calls-on-other-parties-to-be-realistic-after-his-party-loses-its-majority-10304127.html

(6) = Telegraph 25 Jul 2015 ‘For Erdogan, Turkish assault is about containing the Kurds as much as fighting Isil’, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/11762210/For-Erdogan-Turkish-assault-is-about-containing-the-Kurds-as-much-as-fighting-Isil.html

(7) = Guardian 08 Sep 2015 ‘Kurdish civilians hit by snipers as Turkey cracks down on militants’,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/08/kurdish-civilians-killed-snipers-turkey-cracks-down-militants

(8) = Independent 22 Jan 2016 ‘Video shows Kurds waving white flag 'shot by Turkish soldiers'’,
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/video-shows-kurds-waving-white-flag-shot-by-turkish-soldiers-a6828416.html

(9) = Guardian 06 Sep 2015 ‘UN agencies 'broke and failing' in face of ever-growing refugee crisis’,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/06/refugee-crisis-un-agencies-broke-failing

(10) = New Yorker ‘Turkey’s jailed journalists’, http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/turkeys-jailed-journalists

(11) = BBC News 16 Apr 2015 ‘The problem with insulting Turkey's President Erdogan’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32302697

(12) = Amnesty International 03 Feb 2016 ‘Syria's refugee crisis in numbers’, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/02/syrias-refugee-crisis-in-numbers/

(13) = guardian.com 07 May 2016 ‘Should David Cameron’s U-turn on unaccompanied child refugees be celebrated?’, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/07/should-david-camerons-u-turn-on-unaccompanied-child-refugees-be-celebrated

(14) = BBC News 07 Sep 2015 ‘UK to accept 20,000 refugees from Syria by 2020’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34171148

(15) = See (10) above

Migrant Myths 2 : The "Flood" of migrants and refugees to the EU and UK - There isn't one, but if Syrian refugees continue to be left to starve there soon will be

Summary: While there is a lot of talk of a “flood” of refugees to the EU or a “migrant crisis” the numbers involved are pretty small compared to the population, size and wealth of the EU – around 0.6% of the existing EU population in 2015 for instance. (This figure includes all migrants estimated by the EU border force Frontex to have entered undetected, and of all nationalities). More a growing trickle than a flood.

The proportion of these coming to the UK is even smaller as the UK gets less than 5% of asylum applications to EU countries. Ninety-five per cent of Syrian refugees are in Syria and neighbouring countries.

The real crisis is for countries like Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. Jordan, for instance, a country the size of Cornwall and much poorer than the UK , has about 1.2 million Syrians, an increase in its population since 2011 of 25%.

The widespread reports that the richer Arab Gulf states have taken in no Syrians are also false. In fact they have taken in about 1.3 million Syrians and in Saudi’s case given them rights to free education and healthcare, but as they are not signatories to the 1951 UN refugee convention, none are reported in UN statistics as refugees.

Since Saudi for instance has an extreme version of Sharia law, and oppresses non-Sunni Muslims, many Syrian refugees – who include Christians, Shia, Alawites and secular or moderate Sunnis, as well as non-Arab Kurds, will not want to live there either.

Many of the Syrian refugees in countries bordering Syria are receiving no food aid or medical treatment or education for their children, because wealthier countries have not donated enough to the UN to pay for this.

The £1.3 billion over 4 years that the British government boasts about having given to refugees is about £400 million a year out of annual public spending of around £700 billion. It is only “generous” compared to the even smaller amounts given by other countries. Its latest pledge only increases this to around £500 million a year (around 0.07% of the UK’s annual public spending).

Unless EU governments , the US and the Gulf states donate a lot more money to the UN to feed Syrian refugees , there really will be a flood of them into Europe soon – especially with the governments of countries neighbouring Syria having started deportations of Syrians, and the Turkish government’s restarting of its war with Turkish Kurdish separatists, which makes Turkey even less safe for Syrian Kurd refugees.

A flood of migrants and refugees to the EU and UK?

Only 5% of Syrian refugees have been taken in so far by countries outside the Middle East. The other 95% are in Syria itself (about 18 million internally displace people forced out of their homes but still somewhere in Syria) or refugees in refugee camps in neighbouring countries. The numbers granted refugee status in neighbouring countries are over 2.5 million granted refugee status in Turkey, over 1 million in Lebanon, about 600, 000 in Jordan , 250,000 in Iraq (which has a civil war itself) and 100,000 in Egypt (a military dictatorship) . However the total numbers of Syrian refugees in these countries are higher, as many have not been granted formal refugee status. Lebanon and Jordan are small and fairly poor countries. (1).

Lebanon alone has taken in probably more Syrian refugees than the entire EU combined at 1.1 million (or 1.2 million including those not granted refugee status), a 25% increase on its pre-Syrian civil war population of 4.3 million (which already included 450,000 Palestinian refugees).

The EU by comparison got asylum claims from a bit over 200,000 Syrians in 2015 – or just 0.04% of its 504 million population, or 270,000 total since 2011, around 0.05% of its 504.5 million population on the first day of 2011. Of course there were other migrants and asylum seekers from other countries too. The European border agency Frontex estimates the total number of migrants coming to the EU  illegally in 2015 was around 1.5 million, including those likely to have avoided border controls. The numbers who enter legally each year have been similar from 2010 at about 1.4 to 1.5 million a year. So for 2015 the total number of legal and illegal migrants would be around 3 million, or a 0.6% increase in the EU’s population if all were allowed to stay (which they will not be as, while applications may take a long time to process, many applications are rejected each year and around 40% of rejections result in deportation in the same year as they are rejected) (2) – (5).

Multiplying by 4 for the years since the Syrian civil war started in 2011 it would come to a 2.4% increase in population from all forms of immigration. (This will be a significant overestimate as there were more migrants and refugees in 2015 than in previous years)

These figures don’t include the number of non-EU nationals who leave the EU (emigrate from it) every year, from around 700,000 in 2010 to over 800,000 in 2013. That would make the overall growth of non-EU national population in the EU about 2.5 million in 2015, or 10 million over 4 years maximum or around 0.5% per year, or 2% over 4 years (again likely an over-estimate) (6).

So the total increase in the EU’s population from immigration from outside the EU is not so much the “flood” the media often talk of as a rapidly growing trickle relative to the size of the lake it’s flowing into.

And of course immigration and emigration aren’t the only factors affecting population growth. Birth and death rates also affect it. Looking at total population growth for all the countries that are now EU members since 1960  there has not been any significant increase in the rate of population growth. Birth rates have fallen significantly over that time, while people are also living longer due to improved living standards and medical care. The result is a growing population, but with a growing percentage of elderly people (7).

Without either immigration (with immigrants being younger on average) or other measures to increase the birth rate (e.g the 35 hour week tried in France), or both, we may end up with not enough people of working age to pay the taxes to fund healthcare and pensions for pensioners.

But ever increasing population results in increasing pollution, deforestation and environmental damage, including climate change. This is a difficult circle to square.

The rate of population growth in the EU has actually been falling for decades though and is considerably lower than it was in the 1960s.

Are the wealthiest Arab states refusing to take in any Syrian refugees?

The Gulf states – Sunni ‘monarchies’ (dictatorships) allied to the US and who are funding and arming many of the Syrian Jihadist Sunni rebels (including Al Nusrah, the Syrian wing of Al Qa’ida) are refusing to take in any Syrians as refugees, as they are not signatories to the 1951 Refugee convention.  However some Syrian refugees have been given residency permits to live in Saudi and granted free education and healthcare (the Saudi government claim over 100,000 though this is not an independently verified figure) (8) – (9).

World Bank figures gave the total for all the Gulf monarchies as over 1.3 million Syrians living in them in 2013 , 1 million in Saudi, but the UNHCR figure in 2015 was just 500,000, possibly due to definitions of who was being counted (10).

However even Saudi citizens have no real rights not to be imprisoned or executed without fair trial. Immigrants working in Saudi are exploited ruthlessly.

And Saudi Arabia has an extreme version of Sharia law based on the Wahhabi sect of Sunni Islam. Syrian refugees include Christians, Alawites and Shia, all of who face persecution in Saudi, along with moderate and secular Muslims who do not want to live under Sharia law. So many refugees would rather avoid Saudi Arabia and other dictatorships with religious laws.

Is the UK taking more than its share of refugees coming to the EU? No, far less

The UK’s population has grown steadily too, around a 20% increase in the last 50 years. The rate of increase has gone up and down over that period, but is currently higher than at any point since the 1950s (11).

The UK, with over 10% of the EU’s population, and one of the richest countries in it, gets less than 5% of asylum applications for refugee status from people who are not citizens of any EU country. So the people at Calais are not a flood either, but an even smaller trickle. For instance in the second quarter of 2015 the UK got just 3.5% of applications to EU countries. In the  third quarter it got just 2.86% (12).

And that trickle is not higher than ever before either – the number of asylum applications in the UK in 2014 was about the same number as in 1990. And overall about 52% of asylum applications processed in 2014 in the UK were refused (13) – (14).

The UK actually gets very few asylum applications relative to it’s size and wealth – one of the lowest rates in the EU relative to our population.

Source : BBC News (15)

The UK, twice as wealthy as Lebanon in GDP per capita and a much larger country in terms of population and land area, had granted just 5,102 Syrians the right to remain as refugees by August 2015 and offered to take just 4,000 a year in future. (Total numbers will be higher as some will be waiting for applications to be heard, but still likely in the thousands compared to Lebanon’s millions)

Graphic : http://www.ifitweremyhome.com/compare/GB/LB

The real refugee crisis is in Syria’s neighbours, not the EU, but unless the EU provide more money to feed and house refugees, it may be an EU crisis soon

The EU and UK are not suffering a refugee “flood” or “crisis”, but manageable numbers both in terms of their exsiting population, their land area and their wealth. The real refugee crisis is in Syria and for its neighbours. But if the wealthier governments continue to fail to provide enough money to feed and house refugees in countries neighbouring Syria, there may soon be a real flood.

Those Syrians in refugee camps in the Middle East are not getting enough food, and often no medical treatment for illnesses and wounds, as donations from governments around the world have been too low. Syrian refugees in Turkey and Lebanon currently get under 50 cents or 35 pence worth of food a day, not nearly enough. The Turkish government has begun sending many back to Syria. Jordan has closed its border with Syria leaving thousands of refugees stranded in the desert. Lebanon has also begun deporting Syrian refugees . The governments of the three countries are saying they can’t take any more refugees
(16 )  – (19).

The UK’s supposedly “generous” aid to Syrian refugees in the Middle East comes to about £1.1 billion over 4 years since the Syrian civil war began, or a bit under £300 million a year, out of annual public spending of around £700 billion (thousand million) a year. The fact that other EU governments have given even less is nothing to boast about. Even Cameron’s latest pledge to increase it to around £510 million a year from the UK and ask other EU countries to increase similarly is far too little. It amounts to under 0.07% of the UK’s annual public spending of over £700 billion a year (20) – (22).

Sources

(1) = UNHCR 19 Jan 2016 ‘Syria Regional Refugee Response - Inter-agency Information Sharing Portal’, http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php

(2) = BBC News ‘Migrant crisis: Migration to Europe explained in graphics’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34131911 (200,000 asylum applications from Syrians EU 2015; Frontex 1.5 million migrants estimate for 2015)

(3) = Al Jazeera 22 Dec 2015 ‘One million 'refugees and migrants' reached EU in 2015’, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/12/million-refugees-migrants-reached-eu-2015-151222100045573.html (270,000 Syrians applied for asylum in EU countries since 2011)

(4) = BBC News 09 Sep 2015 ‘Migrant crisis: Who does the EU send back?’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34190359 (only 39% of rejected asylum claimants deported from the EU in 2015)

(5) = BBC News 13 Aug 2015 ‘What happens to failed asylum seekers?’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-33849593

(6) = Eurostat 10 Jun 2015 ‘Immigration in the EU’,
http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/e-library/docs/infographics/immigration/migration-in-eu-infographic_en.pdf

(7) = Eurostat Jul 2015 ‘Population and population change statistics’,
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Population_and_population_change_statistics

(8)= Huffington Post 23 Sep 2015 ‘Western Media's Miscount of Saudi Arabia's Syrian Refugees’,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/anhvinh-doanvo/europes-crisis-refugees_b_8175924.html

(9) = Guardian 12 Sep 2015 ‘Saudi Arabia says criticism of Syria refugee response 'false and misleading'’, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/12/saudi-arabia-says-reports-of-its-syrian-refugee-response-false-and-misleading

(10) = News Week 12 Apr 2015 ‘The Gulf States Are Taking Syrian Refugees’, http://europe.newsweek.com/gulf-states-are-taking-syrian-refugees-401131

(11) = ONS 26 Jun 2014 ‘Changes in UK population over the last 50 years’, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pop-estimate/population-estimates-for-uk--england-and-wales--scotland-and-northern-ireland/2013/sty-population-changes.html

(12) = Eurostat News Release 10 Dec 2015 ‘Asylum in the EU Member States More than 410 000 first time asylum seekers registered in the third quarter of 2015’, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7105334/3-10122015-AP-EN.pdf/04886524-58f2-40e9-995d-d97520e62a0e

(13) = Migration Observatory , Oxford university, 13 Aug 2015, ‘Migration to the UK : Asylum’, In 2014, 59% of asylum applications were initially refused. 28% of appeals were eventually approved,
http://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/migration-uk-asylum

(14) = Migration Observatory , Oxford university, 13 Aug 2015, ‘Migration to the UK : Asylum’, Figure 1 - Asylum applications and estimated inflows, 1984-2014,
http://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/migration-uk-asylum

(15) = BBC News ‘Migrant crisis: Migration to Europe explained in graphics’ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34131911

 (16) = Observer 06 Sep 2015 ‘UN agencies 'broke and failing' in face of ever-growing refugee crisis’, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/06/refugee-crisis-un-agencies-broke-failing

(17) = BBC 15 Jan 2016 ‘Turkey 'acting illegally' over Syria refugees deportations’ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35135810

(18) = Independent 22 Jan 2016 ‘Jordan blocks Syria border leaving thousands of refugees in the desert - including hundreds of pregnant women’, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/jordan-blocks-syrian-border-to-leave-thousands-of-refugees-trapped-in-the-desert-including-hundreds-a6828471.html

(19) = CBS/AP 07 Feb 2016 ‘Turkey: We're at end of "capacity to absorb" refugees’,
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/turkey-has-reached-the-end-of-its-capacity-to-absorb-refugees/

(20) = DFID Syria Crisis Response, https://www.gov.uk/government/world/organisations/dfid-syria-crisis-response

(21) = http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/total_spending_2015UKbn

(22) = www.theguardian.com 04 Feb 2016 ‘David Cameron calls for billions more in international aid for Syrian refugees’, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/03/david-cameron-calls-for-billions-more-in-international-aid-for-syrian-refugees

The EU designation of Hezbollah as terrorists is hypocrisy when the British government which pushed for it is arming Syrian and Lebanese Sunni groups involved in terrorist attacks on civilians

The EU’s designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation stinks of hypocrisy and propaganda (1).

Hezbollah didn’t claim responsibility for the bus bombing in Bulgaria which has been used to justify the designation. Al Qa’ida did (2). The Bulgarian government, a NATO member seeking US protection from Russia, has reversed its story twice on whether Hezbollah was responsible (3) – (6).

The US, British, French, Croatian Turkish, Saudi and Jordanian governments have co-operated to arm the nebulous ‘Free Syrian Army’ (FSA) and unspecified “more effective” groups who are supposedly “secular” (but then the British government claims the FSA is “secular” and anti-sectarian when the vast majority of its fighters are actually Islamist ; and some of them extreme sectarian Islamists) (7) – (19).

Many Syrian rebels, including FSA members, are responsible for car bombings and the assassination or torture and summary execution of civilians branded “collaborators” or who just aren’t Sunni Muslims (20) – (29).

Some of the arms NATO and the Saudis sent are already in the hand of Al Nusrah, the Syrian branch of Al Qa’ida, but not to worry the British government and the FSA says they guarantee they won’t let any more get to extremists when they send more and the FSA even promise to give all the weapons back after the war, despite its supposed commander having no control over his nominal officers,  many FSA fighters taking orders from no-one at all ; and some FSA brigades being fakes set up purely to get arms to sell on (30) – (35).

NATO governments claim Hezbollah has no business being in Syria, but it’s no secret that the aim of the NATO and Sunni Arab dictatorships arming Syrian rebels is to break the alliance between Iran and Hezbollah via Syria, leaving them vulnerable to being picked off separately (36).

The Sunni rebels in Syria also include many Lebanese Sunni Jihadist volunteers and militias who’ve been involved for many months and probably since the start of the rebellion (37) – (40).

While Syrian army artillery have hit villages inside Lebanon before due to Syrian rebels and Lebanese Sunni militias crossing the border, Syrian rebels and Lebanese Sunni militias have also attacked both Hezbollah and Shia civilians inside Lebanon repeatedly, even before Hezbollah became openly involved in Syria (41) – (45).

The New York Times quoted one Syrian “anti-government activist” claiming rocket attacks on Shia areas of Lebanon were justified as they would ‘turn “honest and free shi-ites” against Hezbollah”’ and ‘“we are defending ourselves”’ (46)

In May film and photos emerged of Lebanon’s most extreme sectarian Sunni cleric and militia leader, Sheikh Ahmad Al-Asir, meeting General Idris, the nominal head of the FSA, in Syria. Asir has repeatedly called for Lebanese Sunnis to fight in Syria, organised cross border attacks by Sunni militias into Syria ; and had his militia fight Hezbollah and the Lebanese army inside Lebanon. (47) – (51).

Asir has also threatened Lebanon’s Christian minority, accusing Christian politicians of siding with Hezbollah and using the army against Sunnis (52).

(The picture at the top of this post, copied from Brown Moses’ blog, is Aseer, not a Hezbollah cleric)

Lebanon’s Christian politicians are unlikely to oppose all Sunnis but are likely determined not to suffer the way Iraqi and Syrian Christians have. Sunni extremist militias and terrorist groups have run riot in Iraq since the invasion. There and in Syria since the uprising they’ve killed Iraqi and Syrian Christians and forced huge numbers to flee as refugees (53) – (54).

(1) = guardian.co.uk 22 Jul 2013 ‘EU puts Hezbollah armed wing on terrorist blacklists’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/22/hezbollah-eu-terrorism-blacklist

(2) = Independent 04 Jun 2013 ‘UK bid to blacklist Hezbollah faces EU opposition’,
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/uk-bid-to-blacklist-hezbollah-faces-eu-opposition-8644603.html

(3) = NATO news 20 Jun 2013 ‘Bulgaria praised for its commitment to the Alliance’,
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_101540.htm

(4) = Haaretz 17 Jul 2013 ‘Bulgaria: New evidence in Burgas bombing implicates Hezbollah’,
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/1.536307

(5) = BBC News 05 Feb 2013 ‘Hezbollah linked to Burgas bus bombing in Bulgaria’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21342192

(6) = NYT 15 Jun 2013 ‘Bulgaria Pulls Back on Blame for Hezbollah’,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/world/europe/bulgaria-tempers-blame-for-hezbollah-in-bombing.html

(7) = NYT 25 Feb 2013 ‘Saudis Step Up Help for Rebels in Syria With Croatian Arms’,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/26/world/middleeast/in-shift-saudis-are-said-to-arm-rebels-in-syria.html

(8) = NYT 24 Mar 2013 ‘Arms Airlift to Syria Rebels Expands, With Aid From C.I.A.’,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/25/world/middleeast/arms-airlift-to-syrian-rebels-expands-with-cia-aid.html?pagewanted=all

(9) = Guardian 14 Jun 2013 ‘US says it will arm Syrian rebels following chemical weapons tests’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/13/syria-chemical-weapons-us-confirm

(10) = WSJ 16 Jun 2013 ‘U.S. Begins Shipping Arms for Syrian Rebels’, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323419604578569830070537040.html

(11) = The American Conservative 19 Dec 2011 ‘NATO vs Syria’ by Phillip Giraldi (former CIA officer),
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/nato-vs-syria/

(12) = CBS News 28 Mar 2013 ‘AP: "Master plan" underway to help Syria rebels take Damascus with U.S.-approved airlifts of heavy weapons’ , http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57576722/ap-master-plan-underway-to-help-syria-rebels-take-damascus-with-u.s.-approved-airlifts-of-heavy-weapons/
(see 14^th paragraph ‘The Arab official, the diplomat and the military experts said the material was destined for "secular" fighters not necessarily linked to the Free Syrian Army, the nominal umbrella group for the rebels. Jordan and other Arabs have been critical of the FSA, which they accuse of having failed as an effective or credible force because its elements lack the fighting skills and military prowess.’)

(13) = ‘The FSA Doesn’t Exist’ by Professor Aron Lund of the Swedish Institute for International Affairs, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/the-free-syrian-army-doesnt-exist/

(14) = BBC Democracy Live 11 Jul 2013 ‘MPs call for parliamentary consent before arming Syria’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/house-of-commons-23274091

(15) = On the FSA being overwhelmingly Sunni and Islamist go tothe blog post on this link and scroll down to sources (37) to (39) at the bottom of it

(16) = CBC News 07 Dec 2012 ‘Free Syrian Army an uneasy mix of religious extremes’
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/12/06/f-vp-bedard-syrian-rebels.html (scroll down to sub-heading ‘Abandoning Secularism’)

(17) = Syria Comment 03 Apr 2013 ‘Sorting out David Ignatius’, by Around Lund, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/sorting-out-david-ignatius/

(18) = Swedish Institute of International Affairs UIBrief No.13 , Sep 2012, ‘Syrian Jihadism’, by Aron Lund, http://www.ui.se/upl/files/77409.pdf , pages 10 to 17

(19) = UNoCHA IRIN news 13 May 2013 ‘"Sometimes you cannot apply the rules" - Syrian rebels and IHL’, http://www.irinnews.org/printreport.aspx?reportid=98021

(20) = Reuters 23 Dec 2011 'Analysis: Syria bombings signal deadlier phase of revolt', http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/23/us-syria-bombings-idUSTRE7BM18T20111223 , 'Beirut-based commentator Rami Khouri said he doubted the government would have hit its own security targets, suggesting that the bombings could have been the work of armed rebels,....Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut, also said he did not believe that the Syrian government was behind the bombings’

(21) = New York Times 10 May 2012 'Dozens Killed in Large Explosions in Syrian Capital', http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/11/world/middleeast/damascus-syria-explosions-intelligence-headquarters.html?pagewanted=all ; 'Twin suicide car bombs that targeted a notorious military intelligence compound shook the Syrian capital, Damascus… with the Health Ministry putting the toll at 55 dead and nearly 400 wounded — civilians and soldiers. '

(22) = Voice of America 22 Feb 2013 ‘Death Toll Rises in Damascus Blasts’,
http://www.voanews.com/content/death-toll-rises-in-damascus-blasts/1608600.html
‘A Syrian expatriate rights group says a series of bombings in Damascus has killed at least 83 people …Most of the victims are said to be civilians, including many children from a nearby school, with 17 of the dead reported to be members of the security forces.’

(23) = BBC News 11 Jun 2013 ‘Syria crisis: Damascus hit by double 'suicide bombing'’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22852237

(24) = USA Today 09 Jun 2013 ‘Large car bombs increasing in Syria’, http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/06/09/syria-ieds-bombs-hezbollah/2401851/

(25) = AP 27 May 2013 ‘Pro-government Syrian journalist Yara Abbas killed in action’, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57586279/pro-government-syrian-journalist-yara-abbas-killed-in-action/

(26) = Atlantic Wire 26 May 2012 ‘Pro-Regime Iranian Journalist Killed by Syrian Rebels’,
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2012/09/pro-regime-iranian-journalist-killed-syrian-rebels/57288/

(27) = BBC News 27 Jun 2012 ‘Gunmen 'kill seven' at Syrian pro-Assad Ikhbariya TV’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18606341

(28) = Human Rights Watch 20 Mar 2012 ‘Syria: Armed Opposition Groups Committing Abuses - End Kidnappings, Forced Confessions, and Executions’, http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/03/20/syria-armed-opposition-groups-committing-abuses (esp 1st para, 2^nd sentence ‘Abuses include kidnapping, detention, and torture of security force members, government supporters, and people identified as members of pro-government militias, called shabeeha…. executions by armed opposition groups of security force members and civilians.’ – also see under sub-heading ‘Torture’)

(29) = Amnesty International 14 Mar 2013 ‘Syria: Summary killings and other abuses by armed opposition groups’, http://www.amnesty.org/fr/library/asset/MDE24/008/2013/en/21461c90-3702-4892-aa3c-4974bba54689/mde240082013en.html

(30) = CBS News 28 Mar 2013 ‘AP: "Master plan" underway to help Syria rebels take Damascus with U.S.-approved airlifts of heavy weapons’ , http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57576722/ap-master-plan-underway-to-help-syria-rebels-take-damascus-with-u.s.-approved-airlifts-of-heavy-weapons/ ;
see 16^th and 17^th paragraphs which read ‘In spite of the U.S. coordination…there is little… evidence…that all the new, powerful weapons are going to groups which have been carefully vetted by the U.S….Many videos have appeared online showing militants from the various Islamic extremist rebel factions -- including Jabhat al-Nusra, which the U.S. has officially labeled a foreign terrorist group -- with such weapons in recent weeks.’

(31) = guardian.co.uk 17 Jun 2013 ‘Arms for Syrian rebels won't fall into extremist hands, says William Hague’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/17/arms-syrian-rebels-william-hague

(32) = Times 12 Jul 2013 ‘Syrian rebels will return arms at end of uprising, says minister’, http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3814566.ece

(33) = NYT 01 Mar 2013 ‘Syrian Rebel Leader Deals With Ties to Other Side’,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/02/world/middleeast/syrian-rebel-leader-deals-with-old-ties-to-other-side.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1& ; 26^th to 27^th paragraphs ; ‘Many rebel battalion commanders were civilians before the uprising. Having organized a brigade from men in their villages, they balk at taking orders and refuse to coordinate attacks…“They want everything from the chief of staff — weapons, ammunition, money,” General Idris said. “But if you ask them what did you do with the ammunition and weapons, and how did you spend the money, well, they don’t like any commander to ask them what they are doing. But we cannot work in this way.”’

(34) = CBC News 07 Dec 2012 ‘Free Syrian Army an uneasy mix of religious extremes’
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/12/06/f-vp-bedard-syrian-rebels.html ( once on the page scroll down to sub-heading ‘Abandoning Secularism’ ‘When probed about the FSA and how it operates, he asks, "Do you want the truth or the storyline?"…"The FSA and the coalition is only ink on paper," he says, elaborating that it's more of an image created to present a united front for foreign governments…Abu Mohammad wants to be clear that he takes orders from no one.’

(35) = NYT 24 Mar 2013 ‘Arms Airlift to Syria Rebels Expands, With Aid From C.I.A.’,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/25/world/middleeast/arms-airlift-to-syrian-rebels-expands-with-cia-aid.html?pagewanted=all ; see 18^th and 19^th paragraphs ‘Two other commanders, Hassan Aboud of Soquor al-Sham and Abu Ayman of Ahrar al-Sham, another Islamist group, said that whoever was vetting which groups receive the weapons was doing an inadequate job...“There are fake Free Syrian Army brigades claiming to be revolutionaries, and when they get the weapons they sell them in trade,” Mr. Aboud said.’

(36) = Jerusalem Post / Reuters 14 Nov 2011 'Syria urges Arab League to reconsider suspension',http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=245466 ; see paragraphs 5,8 and 9
‘Gabriel Ben-Dor, director of national security studies at the University of Haifa…Ben-Dor said the decision should also be viewed within the context of Arab and Western attempts to contain an emboldened Iran believed to be pursuing nuclear weapons….“They’re hoping to dismantle the axis of Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, and to somehow weaken this entire coalition…The Arab bloc’s suspension, he added, “is an attempt to isolate Iran even more by depriving it of its only major ally in the Middle East.”

(37) = AP 02 Jun 2013 ‘Hezbollah, Syrian rebels in worst clash in Lebanon’,
http://news.yahoo.com/hezbollah-syrian-rebels-worst-clash-lebanon-194558471.html ;
8^th paragraph ‘From Saturday night into Sunday, Hezbollah encircled and ambushed Syrian rebels and allied Lebanese fighters whom they suspected of rocketing Baalbek, a Lebanese security official said.’

(38) = BBC News 18 Jun 2013 ‘Lebanese families drawn into Syrian conflict’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22938132 (scroll down to second bolded sub-heading ‘Spectre of civil war’)

(39) = NYT 09 Dec 2012 ‘Sectarian Conflict Kills at Least 17 in Northern Lebanon in Spillover of Syrian Civil War’, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/10/world/middleeast/syria-conflict-spills-over-to-northern-lebanon.html?_r=0 ; see 5^th paragraph, 1^st sentence ‘The latest conflict began after a number of Sunni fighters from northern Lebanon were killed in an ambush by pro-government forces as they tried to enter Syria to join opposition fighters.’

(40) = Independent 10 Jun 2013 ‘Robert Fisk: The Lebanese army fears rise of the Sunni Muslim Salafists’,
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-the-lebanese-army-fears-rise-of-the-sunni-muslim-salafists-8652931.html ; 2^nd paragraph, 1^st sentence ‘What the Lebanese army is not saying on the record – but which it acknowledges privately – is that large numbers of “Syrian” rebels are in fact Lebanese. They are being brought home to Lebanon to be buried’ ; 5^th paragraph, 3^rd & 4^th sentences ‘A Sunni anti-Assad rebel fighter from Baalbek, Hussein Dergham, for example, was killed in defence of Qusayr and has been brought home for burial. Three other Lebanese Sunni men from Baalbek were killed in a suburb of Qusayr’ ; also see 10^th paragraph on atrocities against civilians by Lebanese Sunni extremists in Syria

(41) = Independent 28 May 2013 ‘Robert Fisk: ‘We ran up to the roof. That was when the second missile killed Loulou’: Lebanon is counting the cost in human lives of the Syrian conflict’,
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/robert-fisk-we-ran-up-to-the-roof-that-was-when-the-second-missile-killed-loulou-lebanon-is-counting-the-cost-in-human-lives-of-the-syrian-conflict-8635204.html

(42) = AAP 28 May 2013 ‘Woman dies as Syria shells hit Lebanon’, http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/world/one-dead-as-syria-shells-hit-lebanon/story-e6frfkui-1226651796364

(43) = Bloomberg 23 Apr 2013 ‘Hezbollah Says Syrian Rebel Threat Creates a ‘Moral’ Duty’,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-22/lebanon-defense-a-duty-after-army-failure-hezbollah-says.html ; 2^nd & 3^rd paragraphs ‘Nabil Qawooq’s remarks…a day after the Shiite border town of Hermel in Lebanon’s northeast came under rocket fire from Syria…without causing casualties, the Lebanese Army said in an April 21 statement…Prior to the attack, residents in the nearby village of al- Qasr received text messages warning that the Free Syria Army, …would bombard the two communities, the Daily Star reported.’

(44) = NYT 26 May 2013 ‘Hezbollah Areas in Beirut Are Hit’,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/27/world/middleeast/rockets-strike-hezbollahs-beirut-stronghold.html?ref=world

(45) = NYT 03 Jun 2013 ‘Hezbollah and Rebels of Syria in Border Fight’,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/03/world/middleeast/hezbollah-and-syria-rebels-clash-on-border.html ;
6^th to 8^th paragraphs ‘But in recent weeks, shells and rockets have fallen indiscriminately on Shiite areas of Lebanon, killing at least three people and suggesting that rebel groups were also willing to punish civilians in Hezbollah strongholds. On Friday, more than a dozen shells landed on the outskirts of Baalbek and gunmen fired on a Shiite shrine. On Saturday, a rocket landed in the Shiite-majority village of Hermel, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency…A Syrian antigovernment activist, Jad al-Yamani, speaking from the outskirts of the besieged Syrian city of Qusayr, defended the rebel attacks on Lebanon, saying that they were justified because they would turn what he called “honest and free Shiites” against Hezbollah…“We are defending ourselves here, and those who criticize us are not in our shoes,” he said.’

(46) = NYT 03 Jun 2013 ‘Hezbollah and Rebels of Syria in Border Fight’,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/03/world/middleeast/hezbollah-and-syria-rebels-clash-on-border.html ; 7^th to 8^th paragraphs ‘A Syrian antigovernment activist, Jad al-Yamani, speaking from the outskirts of the besieged Syrian city of Qusayr, defended the rebel attacks on Lebanon, saying that they were justified because they would turn what he called “honest and free Shiites” against Hezbollah…“We are defending ourselves here, and those who criticize us are not in our shoes,” he said.’

(47) = Brown Moses blog 01 May 2013 ‘Brigadier General Salim Idris And Lebanese Cleric Sheikh Ahmad Al-Aseer Take A Trip To Syria’, http://brown-moses.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/brigadier-general-salim-idris-and.html

(48) = Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Monitor Volume: 11 Issue: 10 , 17 May 2013,
‘Lebanese Salafist Cleric Organizes Militia Forays into Syria’, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[swords]=8fd5893941d69d0be3f378576261ae3e&tx_ttnews[any_of_the_words]=Zambelis&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=40891&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=65e3faaedab7e0ec78e7a0b9352abdc2#.Ue6aKG3_G0g

(49) = AP 24 Jun 2013 ‘Lebanon: clashes between army and supporters of Sunni cleric continue’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/24/lebanon-clashes-army-sunni-cleric

(50) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheikh_Ahmad_Al-Aseer# and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheikh_Ahmad_Al-Aseer#Syrian_civil_war

(51) = AFP 25 Jun 2013 ‘Lebanon forces hunt Sunni cleric behind deadly clashes’,
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gwpiVclFpJa4QWD8JW_Yz6uApUzA?docId=CNG.083c6f49d45308df3a6fc7d8a720e4f3.801

(52) = Miami Herald 02 Jul 2013 ‘Sunni cleric warns Christians over Lebanese army’s cooperation with Hezbollah’, http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/07/02/3482070/sunni-cleric-warns-christians.html

(53) = New York Times 08 May 2007 'The assault on Assyrian Christians', http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/opinion/08iht-edisaac.1.5618504.html

(54) = Independent 02 Nov 2012 ‘The plight of Syria's Christians: 'We left Homs because they were trying to kill us'’, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/the-plight-of-syrias-christians-we-left-homs-because-they-were-trying-to-kill-us-8274710.html