David Cameron's talk of Christian values is empty while he punishes the poorest and the majority while helping the wealthiest get wealthier

Prime Minister David Cameron’s talk of Christian values is empty coming from a man whose government is cutting benefits for the disabled and forced people into homelessness by increasing rents for people living in social housing  - including hundreds of thousands of disabled people - to 80% of market rates, while capping housing benefit (1) – (9).

While he claims ‘there is no money’ for the disabled or those he makes homelessness or  unemployed, he provides taxpayer subsidies to arms companies and won’t tax banks or hedge funds a penny more.

The government is paying BAE billions to build an aircraft carrier which will be left to rust; and billions more for another which will have just 6 aircraft by 2020. The National Audit Office found Cameron’s claim that it would be more expensive to cancel the contract was false (10) – (13).

Department for International Development Minister Andrew Mitchell told parliament that UK foreign aid to India is intended to secure trade deals with India including £6.6bn of  British fighter jets (14). There is money for the war in Afghanistan too and for new PFI contracts, which the Treasury Select Committee found cost taxpayers 70% more to repay per pound than funding by taxation or loans (15) – (16).

Cameron protects the City of London financial sector from new taxes and regulations (17). This includes stock market traders and hedge fund and bank managers who caused the financial crisis, on an average income of £100,000 per year including bonuses, who got a 12% pay increase in 6 months (18) – (19). At the same time he’s making hundreds of thousands of teachers, nurses, police and others unemployed (20).

Then, with six people unemployed for every job available, even on the government’s fiddled figures, his party labels them lazy scroungers (21) – (22).

His government cracks down hard on benefit fraud, which amounts to just £1.6 billion each year out of over £187 billion, with fraudulent claims made by just 0.6% of benefit claimants, often for very small amounts (The inaccurate £6 billion figure the government sometimes claims for benefit fraud actually includes mistakes made – many of them by Department of Work and Pensions staff, not claimants.) (23) – (24).

Meanwhile each year between £6.9 billion and £12.7 billion of benefits that people are entitled to go unpaid either because they are unclaimed or because staff wrongly or mistakenly refuse them to people entitled to them (25).

So at least 4 times as much money isn’t paid out in benefits to people entitled to them as is taken by fraud.

The UK National Fraud Authority’s reports show that the vast majority of fraud each year in the UK is tax fraud (around £15 billion a year) and private sector company and individual criminal fraud most of the rest (around £16 billion a year) (see page 7 of their annual report for 2011). So benefit fraud is peanuts by comparison (26).

At the same time Cameron allows tax havens in the Channel Islands and Belize to remain and lets the Inland revenue do sweetheart deals with big companies to get off with billions in taxes each year (27).

While it’s estimated at least 3,000 people will die of cold related illnesses this year in the UK  due to being unable to afford to heat their homes ; and with the proportion of households in fuel poverty having risen from a fifth to a quarter under the Coalition, Cameron’s government allows the big energy companies off with what a study by Manchester University found to be profiteering – raising their prices immediately by 80% of cost increases when their costs go up, but when costs fall cutting prices to consumers by only 50% of the fall in the wholesale costs of gas, coal and oil generated electricity (28) – (30).

As a result the gap between energy companies’ costs per unit of electricity or gas and their prices in the UK rose from £1.93 in 2004 to £4 in 2010. It’s since fallen due to media coverage – but is still much higher than in 2004 at £2.73 (31).

Yet no hint of capping energy profiteering coming from Cameron’s government.

In Cameron’s version of the Bible does Jesus invite the money-changers into the temple to discuss how they can work together to ring more money out of the poorest?

 (1) = guardian.co.uk 16 Dec 2011 ‘Cameron calls for return to Christian values as King James Bible turns 400’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/16/cameron-king-james-bible-anniversary

(2) = Guardian.co.uk 21 Oct 2011 ‘Disability groups fear further benefit cuts after miscalculation’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/oct/21/disability-groups-further-benefit-cuts

(3) = BBC 08 Jul 2011 ‘Affordable rent housing plans 'to hit London families'’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-14073437 ; ‘Families will struggle to afford multi-bedroom homes in London if government proposals for a new "affordable rent" tariff are introduced, a report by the London Assembly has said. Social housing tenants would be charged 80% of the market rent under the plans.But this is generally higher than the current level and may make payments tricky for families, the assembly's planning and housing committee said. And the proposed cap on benefits could make things even worse, it added. "In this example, new clients could therefore be facing rents that are higher by nearly 100% for a one-bedroom flat and over 300% for a four-bedroom property." This week the government said the changes to housing benefits were about "fairness" and were needed to reduce a bill "which has spiralled to £21bn a year under Labour". But Labour criticised the coalition after it emerged a senior civil servant had warned 20,000 people could be left homeless by the cap on benefits.’

(4) = Observer 21 Aug 2011 ‘Families 'will be priced out of social housing by plans for higher rents' - Proposed rent rises will be unaffordable across much of urban England, not just London, study warns’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/aug/21/families-priced-out-social-housing

(5) = BBC News 11 Mar 2011 ‘Housing benefit cut to hit 450,000 disabled people’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12714313 , ‘An assessment from the Department for Work and Pensions shows the change will leave 450,000 disabled people an average of £13 a week worse off.’

(6) = Scottish Government Communities Analytical Services January 2011 ‘Housing Benefit Changes : Scottish Impact Assessment’ (1^st draft version),http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=%22shelter%20scotland%22%20rent%2080%25%20market%20rates&source=web&cd=9&ved=0CFsQFjAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.scotland.gov.uk%2FResource%2FDoc%2F1125%2F0110252.doc&ei=a0KzTuzaN8OO8gO6p4jxBA&usg=AFQjCNGZf0X0ZRayjdogzPZqTzkV8I7JXA&cad=rja

(7) = Shelter (England) 12 Oct 2011 ‘Rent rises hit home’, http://england.shelter.org.uk/news/october_2011/rental_market_in_crisis

(8) = Shelter Scotland 21 Sep 2011 ‘50% Cut In Affordable Housing Budget As SNP Government’s Manifesto Pledge Turns to Rubble’, http://scotland.shelter.org.uk/media/press_releases/press_release_folder/2011/50_cut_in_affordable_housing_budget_as_snp_governments_manifesto_pledge_turns_to_rubble

(9) = BBC News 27 Oct 2010 ‘No change to housing benefit plan - Cameron’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11633163

(10) = Guardian 07 Jul 2011 ‘National Audit Office challenges £6bn project to build aircraft carriers’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/jul/07/nao-report-aircraft-carriers-navy

(11) = guardian.co.uk  11 Jul 2011 ‘David Cameron 'prevented independent watchdog seeing aircraft carrier papers'’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/jul/11/david-cameron-aircraft-carriers

(12) = Channel 4 News 07 Jul 2011 ‘Guardian 07 Jul 2011 ‘Full fact check : the real cost of cancelling aircraft carriers’http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-the-real-cost-of-cancelling-aircraft-carriers/7210; ‘In 2007, the Labour government decided to build two 65,000-ton Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers at an estimated cost of £3.65bn….But since then, costs have spiralled dramatically, with the projected outlay now thought to be £6.24bn for just one fully operational carrier, the Queen Elizabeth…..The second ship – the Prince of Wales – will be built, but left in a state of “extended readiness”, meaning that fighter planes won’t be able to launch from or land on its deck…..It gets worse: the NAOnow thinks the eventual bill for the programme “will significantly exceed £10 billion”.’

(13) = Guardian 29 Nov 2011 ‘MPs warn Royal Navy's carriers will be costly, late, and of limited use’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/nov/29/royal-navy-carriers-impaired-use-public-accounts-committee ; government admits one carrier to be mothballed on construction in 2016, one to have no planes on it till 2020, when it will have only 6, raised to 12 in 2023

(14) = Independent 17 Dec 2011 ‘Aid to India part of broad plan to build trade and investment, says minister ’, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/aid-to-india-part-of-broad-plan-to-build-trade-and-investment-says-minister-6278373.html , ‘The Government's controversial decision to continue giving money to India, a nation that has more billionaires than the UK and an aid programme of its own, is directly linked to developing trade and investment opportunities, a senior minister admitted yesterday.

In terms of perhaps surprising bluntness, international development minister Andrew Mitchell said the decision to spend £1.2bn over the next five years was part of a broader partnership that also included the hoped-for sale of fighter jets to India…. One potential deal officials are anxiously following is the sale of 126 fighter jets to Delhi. The EuroFighter Typhoon, made by a European consortium including Britain's BAE Systems, is one of two jets that have made the final shortlist in a deal worth an estimated £6.6bn.’

(15) = guardian.co.uk 19 Jul 2011 ‘300 schools to be built with £2bn PFI scheme’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2011/jul/19/300-schools-built-private-finance-scheme

(16) = BBC News ‘PFI projects 'poor value for money', say MPs’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-14574059 ; ‘The Private Finance Initiative (PFI) used by successive governments to pay for new schools and hospitals is poor value for money, MPs have said. The Treasury select committee said PFI was no more efficient than other forms of borrowing and it was "illusory" that it shielded the taxpayer from risk. Government had become "addicted" to PFI, the committee's Tory chair said…. In a critical report, the cross-party Treasury select committee said the long-term expense of PFI deals - where the private sector shoulders the upfront cost and is typically repaid by the taxpayer over a 30-year period - were now much higher than more conventional forms of borrowing. Due to the financing costs involved, it said paying off a £1bn debt incurred through PFI cost the taxpayer equivalent to a direct government debt of £1.7bn.’

(17) = Guardian 07 Dec 2011 ‘David Cameron threatens veto if EU treaty fails to protect City of London’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/07/cameron-threatens-veto-eu-treaty

(18) = Astbury Marsden Compensation Survey 2011 – Banking Infrastructure London,http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:tN8-iJkGpa8J:www.astburymarsden.com/documents/Astbury%2520Marsden%2520Compensation%2520Survey%25202011_Banking%2520Infrastructure%2520London%2520small.pdf+Astbury+Marsden+report+city+pay&hl=en&gl=uk&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESjCp35WxasQC0uKU6hyPufcF3PKQgqywr0k1qNAEGK_4wMSeFBhohPhKrGo7oTiY4RLukF4E51KGYTxH6kmRfhX-1zs80hIKdv6Ckao6ZzZxFrjD6HI5anmt52lZR3QiNTc0ttx&sig=AHIEtbS9vlPCGJzgvi4HFde7s45wAlnw_w ; shows average salary for city of London financial sector is £83,000 with 12% increase in 6 months in 2011

(19) = Guardian 28 Nov 2011 ‘Banks under fresh pressure to curb bonus and dividend payouts’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/28/banks-curb-bonuses-dividends ; ‘According to a survey by headhunters Astbury Marsden published on Monday, City professionals expect an average bonus of 24% of their basic pay for 2011, indicating a payout of £19,920 on an average salary of £83,000.’ (which brings their average annual income including bonuses to about £103,000)

(20) = guardian.co.uk 29 Nov 2011 ‘Cuts: an extra 300,000 public sector jobs now face the axe’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/patrick-butler-cuts-blog/2011/nov/29/300k-extra-public-sector-jobs-face-axe , ‘The Office for Budgetary Responsibility now reckons 710,000 public service jobs - not 410,000 - will go over the next five years.’

(21) = Office for National Statistics ‘Labour Market Statistics, November 2011’, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/november-2011/index.html ; shows 2.62 million people unemployed in 3^rd quarter of 2011

(22) = Labour market statistics: 16 Nov 2011 – Vacancies - http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/november-2011/statistical-bulletin.html#tab-Vacancies ; shows 462,000 job vacancies in 3^rd quarter of 2011

(23) = Guardian  01 Feb 2011 ‘Benefit fraud: spies in the welfare war’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/feb/01/benefits-fraud-investigators ; ‘The Salvation Army and a number of other charities have written to the prime minister pointing out that the £5bn figure highlighted by the chancellor was "a threefold exaggeration of the true government estimate of benefit fraud". The frequently cited figure is achieved by adding the estimated amount of fraudulent claims (approximately £1.6bn) to the estimated total of claims made as a result of an error either by the claimant or the official handling their claim….There is an artful misrepresentation here; the suggestion is that the benefits bills is out of control because vast quantities of fraud is being committed by benefits claimants – so cutting the bill is just a question of tackling fraud. It is true that the benefits bill has grown rapidly, from £125bn in 1996/7 to £187bn in 2009/10, but this is not the result of increased fraud. The cost is higher because more people are (legitimately) claiming benefits and because an ageing population is making the cost of pensions soar. Less than 1% of people on benefits commit fraud, and those who do, campaigners argue, are often the poorest of the poor, and the sums involved very small.

(24) = Full Fact 01 Nov 2010 ‘Calls grow for George Osborne to correct the record’,http://fullfact.org/blog/calls_grow_for_george_osborne_to_correct_the_record-2364

(25) = Hansard House of Commons Written Answers 16 March 2011column 401w  ‘Social Security Benefits’ http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmhansrd/cm110316/text/110316w0004.htm#1103171000102 ; ‘Dr Whiteford: To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions what estimate he has made of monetary value of unclaimed benefits in the latest period for which figures are available; and how much was unclaimed for each benefit and allowance type. [45049].Chris Grayling: For the six income-related benefits for which estimates are available there was between £6,930 million and £12,700 million left unclaimed in 2008-09’

(26) = National Fraud Authority Jan 2011 ‘Annual fraud indicator’,http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/publications/agencies-public-bodies/nfa/annual-fraud-indicator/annual-fraud-indicator-2011?view=Binary

(27) = Guardian 20 Dec 2011 ‘HMRC hid 'sweetheart' tax deals for big business, MPs say’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/dec/20/inland-revenue-sweetheart-tax-deals

(28) = guardian.co.uk 19 Oct 2011 ‘Fuel poverty 'will claim 2,700 victims this winter'’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/oct/19/fuel-poverty-2700-victims-winter ; figure is if only 10% of 27,000 cold related excess deaths in winter are due to fuel poverty ; figure is for England and Wales only so including Scotland , with Scotland having a population of 5.2 million and England and Wales 63 million, there will be 222 cold related deaths in Scotland this winter, which, added to the 2,700 in England and Wales comes to 2922 – roughly 3,000)

(29) = guardian.co.uk 01 Dec 2011 ‘Fuel poverty affects a quarter of UK's households as bills soar and pay freezes’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/dec/01/fuel-poverty-affects-quarter-households

(30) = guardian.co.uk 02 Dec 2011 ‘Big six energy firms face fresh accusations of profiteering’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/dec/02/energy-firms-accusations-profiteering-electricity

(31) = See (30) above

A sense of entitlement doesn’t mean wanting a job and a pension , Sir Roger Carr, it means unlimited greed at the expense of others

Many of the same people who are paying themselves  salaries from several hundred thousands to millions every year, plus the same again in bonuses, are condemning public sector employees for their ‘sense of entitlement’ in wanting jobs and pensions; and the unemployed for wanting to have enough money to eat. One of them is Sir Roger Carr, the head of the CBI (Confederation of British Industry).

Last month the Independent reported Sir Roger telling a conference sponsored by Barclays bank’s corporate division that

 “Most of us... have grown up in the West with a sense of entitlement – to jobs, opportunity, wealth,” he said. “What's happening all around us is a cultural cold shower, a move from entitlement, a recognition that things have changed, nothing is by right: we have to earn our place in a vigorously competitive world as individuals and as nations.”

adding that  “We need to encourage all those in positions of authority – government, opposition, regulators and commentators – to stop the demonisation of industry: banking, energy or defence.” (1)

Because of course it’s “demonisation” to place the blame for the crisis on the people who actually caused it, who demanded deregulation, got it and used it to commit fraud on a massive scale – often by buying and selling worthless ‘assets’ like collateral debt obligations and demanding a commission on each sale.

In Carr’s world, if regulators so much as criticise these industries now, never mind actually regulate them (little sign of that) that’s ‘demonisation’.

Demonising energy industry executives’ sense of entitlement

Since 2004 Sir Roger has been chairman of Centrica, which owns British Gas, of which Scottish Gas is a subsidiary.

According to Centrica’s website, Carr’s salary in 2010 was £470,000, up from £450,000 in 2009,  while in 2011 there was an average fall of 4.5% for everyone employed in the UK(far more for those made unemployed). Carr earned an absolute amount 18 times higher than median earnings in the UK of around £26,000 for most people in 2010 and 2011(2) – (4).

That’s only the pay for one of his four paid jobs, which, according to the CBI website, also include ‘deputy chairman & senior independent director of the Court of the Bank of England... senior advisor to KKR - the world's largest private equity company’ and ‘visiting fellow of Said Business School, University of Oxford’.

The Bank of England jobs seem to pay at least £150,000 a year based on the bank’s annual report, bringing Carr’s annual income to a minimum of £620,000 in 2010, or 23 times median earnings, without including his pay from KKR or the University of Oxford (5) .

Sam Laidlaw, the Chief Executive of Centrica, had a basic salary of £2 million in 2010. He also had shares and pension payments worth between £2 millionand £8million. That makes Laidlaw’s pay somewhere between 76 and 380 times median earnings in the UK (6) – (7).

I’d be surprised at his lack of self-consciousness in accusing the majority of people of ‘a sense of entitlement’ in these circumstances, but as the late American economist J.K Galbraith often pointed out, people making huge amounts of money often convince themselves this must be due to their own genius rather than to any unfairness or fault in the system they work in – and that anyone who has far less must have less due to their moral failings.

British Gas is one of the ‘big six’ British energy companies found to have continually increased it’s prices above rises in it’s costs, to have maintained price increases permanently after short term increases in the price of buying gas wholesale and to have failed to pass on anything like the full reduction in wholesale costs when prices fell.

A study by Manchester University found that‘In the first six months of 2004, retail electricity prices were on average £1.93 per 100 kilowatt hour higher than the wholesale measure. By 2010 this gap had more than doubled, to over £4. It narrowed in 2011 as a result of well-publicised cost increases in the wholesale market, but averaged £2.73 in summer – even before the price rises passed on to householders by the big six this autumn….. around 80% of the winter price spike was passed to the consumer price, but when wholesale markets fell in summer, retail prices moved far less – only around 50% of the amount… The data also shows that when wholesale prices suddenly spike – as they did in 2009 – consumer prices rapidly follow suit. However, prices fall back more slowly and to a lesser degree after the wholesale price spike abates.’ (8)

In short, profiteering on gas prices when the majority are suffering pay cuts in real terms and the poorest and pensioners are having to choose whether to heat their homes or eat.

Not only that, but an estimated 2,700 people in Britain will die this winter due to cold – due to being unable to afford to heat their homes(9).

That makes Sir Roger’s condemnation of the ‘sense of entitlement’ of others ring very hollow. In fact it makes it sound like the massive arrogance and smugness of someone who feels entitled to profit at everyone else’s expense – much like the hedge fund managers and the bank chief executives and government ministers.

It also makes his claim that the regulators are demonising the energy industry sound pretty far fetched ; and difficult to understand why a government which claims “we’re all in it together” thought he deserved to be given a knighthood in January this year.

Demonising the Defence Industry

Now I find myself itching at the fingertips to demonise the defence industry some, partly because it’s just so easy.

It has been arming murdering dictatorships like Saddam Hussein’s (in the 1970s and 1980s) and the Saudis (today).  If the dictators fail to pay then the Arms Export Credit Guaranteesystem means the taxpayer in the UK pays the bill, as they did after the 1991 war with Saddam.

Until well into the Arab Spring  British arms companies were also arming the dictatorships shooting protesters across the Arab world, with the approval of the Cameron government (10).

The defence industry gets government subsidies on a scale which most civilian manufacturing companies can only dream of – including the continuation of the construction of two of the largest aircraft carriers ever built by BAEsystems.

The excuse given by David Cameron is that the last government supposedly drafted the contracts in a way that would make cancellation more expensive than paying for both to be completed. Yet when the National Audit Office questioned this and requested documents on the cost and the terms of the contract, Cameron refused to let  them see any of them. When the NAO got hold of some documents, they found the cost has increased from £3.65 billion in 2007 to £6 billion today and probably £10 billion in the end. One will be ‘left in a state of “extended readiness”(i.e left to rust) when it’s finished in 2016, while the other won’t have any planes till 2020, when it’ll have just 6, then 12 in 2023(11) – (14).

That’s just one example of how the MoD subsidises arms companies for billions at taxpayers’ expense every year, using money that could provide services, fund research and development of new technologies and medicines, or provide loans to civilian industries that provide far more jobs.

Here are a couple of others.

The senior management of the banking, financial, energy and defence industries seem to think it’s clever to try to turn accusations of a ‘sense of entitlement’ back onto the majority. It lacks any credibility.

(1) = Independent 22 Nov 2011 ‘CBI president attacks 'sense of entitlement' ’, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/cbi-president-attacks-sense-of-entitlement-6265921.html

(2) = Centrica Annual Report and Accounts 2010 – Financials – Summary Reports -Directors' emoluments, pension benefits and interests in shares’ , http://www.centrica.com/files/reports/2010ar/index.asp?pageid=49

(3) = Guardian.co.uk 23 Nov 2011 ‘UK incomes fall 3.5% in real terms, ONS reveals’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/nov/23/uk-household-earnings-fall?commentpage=last#end-of-comments(including people in part-time jobs, fall is 4.5% including inflation – a 0.5% rise minus 4.5% inflation)

(4) = Office for National Statistics ‘2011 Annual Survey of Hours and Earning -Median full-time gross annual earnings’, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/ashe/annual-survey-of-hours-and-earnings/ashe-results-2011/ashe-statistical-bulletin-2011.html#tab-Annual-earnings

(5) = Bank of England Annual Report 2010 - Remuneration of Governors, Directors and MPC members, http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/annualreport/2010/renumeration2010.pdf (page 40 under sub-heading ‘Other senior executives’)

(6) = See (2) above

(7) = Centrica – Governance - Aligning rewards with results  - Remuneration mix', http://www.centrica.com/files/reports/2010ar/index.asp?pageid=54 (shows salary makes up only about 20% of executives total annual payments)

(8) = guardian.co.uk 02 Dec 2011 ‘Big six energy firms face fresh accusations of profiteering’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/dec/02/energy-firms-accusations-profiteering-electricity

(9) = guardian.co.uk 19 Oct 2011 ‘Fuel poverty 'will claim 2,700 victims this winter'’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/oct/19/fuel-poverty-2700-victims-winter

(10) = guardian.co.uk 21 Jul 2011 ‘MP attacks Hague over review of arms sales to Arab regimes’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/jul/21/uk-arms-sales-middle-east , ‘Senior MPs have delivered a severe rebuke to the government over its approval of the sale of a wide range of arms, including sniper rifles, machine guns and "crowd control goods" to countries in the Middle East and north Africa……….Britain supplied the weapons despite official guidelines stating that exports of equipment that could be used for internal repression must be blocked. In a damning report earlier this year, the Commons arms export controls committees demanded an urgent review of exports to "authoritarian regimes worldwide"………..They referred specifically to the Mubarak and Gaddafi regimes in Egypt and Libya, to Bahrain, Syria, Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Observers said military trucks sent by the Saudis to help suppress demonstrations in Bahrain were British.’

(11) = Guardian 07 Jul 2011 ‘National Audit Office challenges £6bn project to build aircraft carriers’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/jul/07/nao-report-aircraft-carriers-navy

(12) = guardian.co.uk  11 Jul 2011 ‘David Cameron 'prevented independent watchdog seeing aircraft carrier papers'’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/jul/11/david-cameron-aircraft-carriers

(13) = Channel 4 News 07 Jul 2011 ‘Guardian 07 Jul 2011 ‘Full fact check : the real cost of cancelling aircraft carriers’http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-the-real-cost-of-cancelling-aircraft-carriers/7210; ‘In 2007, the Labour government decided to build two 65,000-ton Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers at an estimated cost of £3.65bn….But since then, costs have spiralled dramatically, with the projected outlay now thought to be £6.24bn for just one fully operational carrier, the Queen Elizabeth…..The second ship – the Prince of Wales – will be built, but left in a state of “extended readiness”, meaning that fighter planes won’t be able to launch from or land on its deck…..It gets worse: the NAOnow thinks the eventual bill for the programme “will significantly exceed £10 billion”.’

(14) = Guardian 29 Nov 2011 ‘MPs warn Royal Navy's carriers will be costly, late, and of limited use’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/nov/29/royal-navy-carriers-impaired-use-public-accounts-committee ; government admits one carrier to be mothballed on construction in 2016, one to have no planes on it till 2020, when it will have only 6, raised to 12 in 2023

The petition by 31,000 scientists on climate change is an Exxon funded fraud ; Solar activity can't account for climate change

Antarctic ice is still melting rapidly in the West far more than it's growing in the East; cold winters or cooling of climate in some parts of the earth do not disprove overall global warming; and Peirs Corbyn is wildly wrong as often as he's right

Some people still seem to believe there’s a petition signed by “31,000 scientists” saying global warming is not man-made and not a problem ( it’s making the earth “lush” according to the petition). This is in fact the fraudulent Oregon Petition, first produced and disseminated by the dubious ‘Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine’ and the George C. Marshall Institute, which is funded by Exxon-Mobil oil, in the late 90s (when it only had 17,000 dodgy signatories)  and then re-released every 5 years or so. The authors of the attached mock up of a research paper are members of the ‘Oregon Institute’ who don’t include any climate scientists at all. They’re variously vets or  physicians or chemists or electrical engineers – though given all the other things they’ve made up they might not even have those qualifications. They falsely claim that the ‘Research Paper’ was published in the journal of the US National Academy of Science, who disowned it and say they have nothing to do with it. Many of the supposed signatories, who include the unlikely ‘Dr. Michael J. Fox’ and ‘Dr. Geri Halliwell’, are not scientists at all; almost none are climate scientists (1) – (6).

Fredrick Seitz, founder of the George C. Marshall Institute - funded by Exxon oil

The man who established the George C Marshall Institute and began the petition was Fredrick Seitz, who was not a climate scientist but a physicist. Before he began producing propaganda against man-made climate change, funded by oil firm Exxon, he did lots of dodgy ‘research’ on how smoking cigarettes was supposedly harmless, funded by tobacco company P JReynolds.

Exxon is among the oil companies which continue to fund groups disseminating climate change denial propaganda (7) – (8). It has offered scientists $10,000 for each research paper they produce contradicting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report that average annual global temperatures are rising at an unprecedented rate and that this is more than 90% probability that most of this change is due to human activity (9) – (14). The IPCC, unlike the Oregon outfit, is composed of thousands of actual climate scientists doing peer reviewed research (15) - (16). An independent review of 928 scientific research papers found 75% of climate scientists agree with the IPCC’s assessment and none strongly disagree with it (not surprising as the IPCC mostly analyses and produces a summary of research at intervals of 5 to 10 years) (17).

NASA and others are also often quoted a supposed source that ice is growing in Antarctica. In fact every article on NASA’s website says the opposite, including that such claims are “misleading” and that “the ice sheet is not only losing mass, but it is losing mass at an accelerating rate.” They say sea ice in Eastern Antarctica is growing, but land ice in Western Antarctica is melting on a massively greater scale. (18) – (21).

The theory that solar activity or sunspots account for the majority of climate change is held by a tiny minority of scientists. It’s possible the tiny minority could be right and the vast majority wrong, but it’s not likely. Galileo may have been almost alone in saying the earth rotated around the sun, but at that point there were almost no scientists and it was mostly very religious non-scientists rubbishing his claims.

While there are non-human causes for part of climate change – and the earth did cyclically cool and heat long before the industrial revolution, the vast majority of research by solar scientists has found that solar activity and sun spots can account for at most a quarter of the amount of climate change we’ve seen since 1850, with the majority being man made (22) – (23).

Piers Corbyn has been wildly wrong as often as right in his weather forecasts

Weather Forecaster and physicist Piers Corbyn is much quoted for getting his predictions on the cold winters this and last year right, but his long term weather forecasting, based on solar activity, has been wrong as often as it’s been right. He’s predicted an extremely cold winter almost every year for the past decade and only got it right for two of those. His prediction of hurricane strength winds in the UK in the October and November 2007 was also completely wrong as were his predictions of very cold winters for most years of the last decade, including in 2008 . His overall record suggests that he's right that solar activity accounts for some weather and climate change, but that he's wrong in claiming it accounts for all of, or a majority of it. (24).

Nor are short term weather events evidence against overall climate change Nor is a colder climate in some countries and areas inconsistent with scientists’ predictions on overall global warming. For instance global warming could reduce the temperature difference between the tropics and the poles, slowing or even stopping the current ‘Gulf stream’ warm water convection current which keeps the UK warmer than Alaska. If the Gulf stream stops, then the UK ‘s climate could become as cold as Alaska even though the average annual temperature for the world as a whole has increased.

There is a lot of politics, misinformation and oil company money involved in climate change denial.

(1) = Guardian 19 Sep 2006 ‘The denial industry’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/sep/19/ethicalliving.g2

(2) = The Royal Society March 2005 ‘A guide to facts and fiction about climate change’, http://royalsociety.org/General_WF.aspx?pageid=7318&terms=climate+change&fragment=&SearchType=&terms=climate%20change and http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/News_and_Issues/Science_Issues/Climate_change/climate_facts_and_fictions.pdf (see especially under subheading 2 from half-way down third page)

(3) = Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, http://www.oism.org/  - home page states ‘Several members of the Institute's staff are also well known for their work on the Petition Project, an undertaking that has obtained the signatures of more than 31,000 American scientists opposed, on scientific grounds, to the hypothesis of "human-caused global warming" and to concomitant proposals for world-wide energy taxation and rationing.’ Even if you believe their claims about their qualifications, not one even claims to be a climate scientist (saying they are vets, physicians, chemists, electrical engineers, etc).

(4) = National Academy of Sciences 20 Apr 1998 ‘STATEMENT BY THE COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES REGARDING GLOBAL CHANGE PETITION’,http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=s04201998

(5) = Exxon-Mobil 2007 Worldwide Contributions and Community Investments (company document published on http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/orgfactsheet.php?id=36#src19  and at http://research.greenpeaceusa.org/?a=download&d=4586 – lists $115,000 of donations to the George C. Marshall Institute in 2007 alone

(6) = Seattle Times 01 May 1998 ‘Jokers Add Fake Names To Warming Petition’, http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=19980501&slug=2748308

(7) = Guardian.co.uk 01 jul 2009 ‘ExxonMobil continuing to fund climate sceptic groups, records show’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jul/01/exxon-mobil-climate-change-sceptics-funding

(8) = Guardian.co.uk 10 Mar 2010 ‘US oil company donated millions to climate sceptic groups, says Greenpeace ; Report identifies Koch Industries giving $73m to climate sceptic groups 'spreading inaccurate and misleading information'’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/mar/30/us-oil-donated-millions-climate-sceptics

(9) = Guardian 02 Feb 2007 ‘Scientists offered cash to dispute climate study’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/feb/02/frontpagenews.climatechange

(10) = CNN 05 Feb 2007 ‘Exxon linked to climate change pay out’, http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/02/news/companies/exxon_science/index.htm

(11) = IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 : synthesis report , summary for policymakers ; ‘1. Observed changes in climate and their effects’,  http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/spms1.html

(12) = As above ‘Causes of Change’ http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/spms2.html

(13) = Glossary of Terms used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report / Glossary of Synthesis Report, Likelihood, page 83,http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_appendix.pdf (‘very likely’ defined as greater than 90% probability).

(14) = CNN 29 Apr 2007 ‘Scientists: Humans 'very likely' cause global warming’, http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/02/02/climate.change.report/index.html

(15) = IPCC flyer 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/press-ar4/ipcc-flyer-low.pdf

(16) = See (2)

(17) = Science3 December 2004: Vol. 306 no. 5702 p. 1686 ; ‘Beyond the Ivory Tower : The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change’, http://www.sciencemag.org/content/306/5702/1686.full

(18) = NASA 12 Jan 2010 ‘Is Antarctica Melting?’, http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/20100108_Is_Antarctica_Melting.html

(19) = NASA 15 Dec 2010 ‘Unstable Antarctica: What's Driving Ice Loss?’, http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/unstable-antarctica.html

(20) = 23 Jan 2008 ‘Antarctic Ice Loss Speeds Up, Nearly Matches Greenland Loss’, http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/20100108_Is_Antarctica_Melting.html

(21) = Search results on NASA website for ‘Antarctica ice’, http://search.nasa.gov/search/search.jsp?nasaInclude=Antarctica+ice

(22) = Guardian.co.uk 11 jul 2007 ‘New analysis counters claims that solar activity is linked to global warming’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/jul/11/climatechange.climatechange1

(23) = Consequences Vol 2 No 1 1996 ‘The Sun and Climate’, http://www.gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/winter96/leanrind.html ; by Dr Judith Lean and David Rind

(24) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn