Power sharing among all parties is needed in Egypt to prevent the military and Mubarak's former officials holding all the cards by dividing and conquering everyone else

Some claim the coup against elected Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi was justified because he acted undemocratically. While Morsi did act undemocratically in some ways, this has been greatly exaggerated relating to the new constitution and his decree powers.

The new Interim President is Adly Mansour. Originally appointed a judge by Mubarak, in 2012 he over-turned a ban on former members of Mubarak’s dictatorship standing in elections (1).

He has re-appointed Abdel-Maguid Mahmoud as Chief Prosecutor.  Mahmoud was sacked by Morsi’s November 2012 decree for acquitting Mubarak and his security officials of ordering the killing of protesters. (2) – (5).

This may be the start of a counter-revolution following the military coup.

The fact that Morsi’s decree powers were primarily a response to Mubarak’s judiciary and prosecutors blocking  the conviction of those who ordered anti-Mubarak protesters killed,  along with constitutional reform, by trying to dissolve the elected parliament and assembly, has largely been ignored (6) – (9).

So have Morsi’s many concessions to, and repeated, mostly rejected, offers of negotiations with, the opposition National Salvation Front, which includes parties founded by former MPs from Mubarak’s NDP party and parties which have allied with them or granted them membership.(10) – (19).

The opposition mostly demanded Morsi accede to all its demands, including his resignation, before it would talk, even when, just before the coup, he offered a national coalition government (20) – (22).

His offer of parliamentary elections for April was rejected (23).

Morsi gave up most of his decree powers less than three weeks after assuming them,  maintaining only the referendum on the new constitution, the sacking of  the Chief Prosecutor ; and the retrial of Mubarak and his officials (24).

The new constitution was drawn up by a constituent assembly elected by the elected Egyptian parliament. The assembly was dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party and the Islamist Nour party because a majority of Egyptians voted for them (25) – (26). 

Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood are certainly not blameless. Brotherhood supporters, acting with their leaders’ approval, tortured confessions from people they suspected of being hired thugs sent to attack them. Though using plain clothes police or hired thugs to attack political opponents was a method used by Mubarak and by unknown forces (the military? Mubarak remnants?) since his overthrow, this doesn’t justify torture (27) – (29).

Islamic parties’ MPs drafted a law to reduce the minimum age of marriage for women to 13 and blamed women protesters for their own rape by mobs. The military are no protectors of women’s rights though, having beaten, stripped , tortured and killed female protesters and carried out “virginity tests” which amounted to sexual assault under military rule (though judges ruled these illegal) (30) – (35).

Protesters saw Morsi as betraying the “bread, freedom and social justice” demands of protesters by rationing publicly subsidised bread and cutting fuel price subsidies in order to secure an IMF loan, possibly in the belief that following Mubarak’s IMF approved economic and welfare policies would ensure US government support, preventing a military coup (36) – (39).

A lack of any attempt to reduce population growth has left Egypt with food and energy shortages which force it to import most of its food. The scandal over the meeting about the Ethiopian dam was similarly linked to impending water shortages (40) – (42).

While condemning Morsi’s economic mismanagement the opposition opposed and got him to reverse increased taxes on cigarettes and alcohol which were conditions for an IMF loan (43)

The secular opposition rightly condemned Morsi’s alliance with extreme Islamists. He appointed a member of the former terrorist group Gaama Islamiya, which carried out the Luxor massacre of western tourists in 1997, as governor of Luxor. The group’s leader threatened to “sever the heads” of anti-Morsi protesters. Morsi and the Brotherhood also spoke at rallies with extreme Sunni clerics who condemned Shia as infidels, and called Egyptians to armed Jihad in Syria (44) – (46).  

Some clerics said opposing Morsi was punishable by death under Islam, though he thanked others who denied this (47).

Murders of Shia and Christians followed. However Morsi condemned the killings and ordered the police to bring those responsible to justice. Sectarian murders also happened under Mubarak and military rule, including the notorious Maspero massacre of Christians by the military in October 2011. So the coup is not protecting minorities (48) – (50).

The military has its own extremist allies. In December 2011 Abdel Moneim Kato, a retired general then on the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, said protesters should be “burnt in Hitler’s ovens”, though he was later fined for this (51) – (52).

A Wall Street Journal editorial recently claimed that Egyptians would be “lucky” if their military rulers turned out to be like “Pinochet” and “hired free market reformers and midwifed a transition to democracy”. In fact Pinochet had thousands tortured and murdered and ruled as a dictator without any elections for 15 years till 1988 and planned to stay on till 1997 if he hadn’t lost a referendum (53).

While all Egyptians understandably try to avoid getting on the wrong side of the men with guns, tanks and jet fighters ; and both the Islamic parties and their secular opponents have tried to get the decisive support of the military as kingmakers, it shouldn’t be forgotten that since Mubarak fell, and even before Morsi was elected, the military has been responsible for much of the jailing, killing and torture of protesters ; even jailing some for years merely for criticising it (54).

The military may aim to prevent civil war, but maintaining their own power and influence is probably an additional motive. The coup hasn’t prevented pro and anti Morsi protesters killing one another ; and the military was already killing pro-Morsi protesters with live ammunition before the 50 deaths on July 9th, though not all protesters on either side are peaceful ; a minority being armed with clubs or knives (55) – (60).

While some pro-Morsi protesters armed with petrol bombs and at least one man firing a pistol seem to have been present when the military killed over 50 and wounded over 400 of the Muslim Brotherhood protesters camped outside the building where they’ve imprisoned the deposed President, and 3 soldiers and policemen were killed, this may have been an over-reaction, like armed police and the military using live ammunition on protesters, some of whom were violent, under both Mubarak and military rule (61) .

Being elected shouldn’t be a blank cheque used by governments to do whatever they want without listening to all their citizens, but military coups against elected governments are undemocratic.

Zogby polls found support for Morsi and the Brotherhood fell to 27% by May, and most Egyptians opposed the new constitution, but 56% of Egyptians were against the army taking power even temporarily (62) – (63).

However opinions can change quickly and polling results differ greatly depending on the question asked : in March Pew Polling found 52% having a positive view of Morsi and 53% viewing the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party positively (64).

The secular opposition condemned Morsi for military repression, for instance his decree which granted the military the power to arrest and try civilians until the constitutional referendum. Will it now repeat this and hand the military all the cards?

While there may be some former members of the NDP that the secular opposition to Mubarak can work with, a power sharing government of all parties might be a way to prevent the military and Mubarak’s old guard continuing to return real power to their own hands by playing their divided opponents off against each other.

(1) = BBC News 04 Jul 2013 ‘Profile: Interim Egyptian President Adly Mansour’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23176293

(2) = Al Ahram Online 04 Jul 2013 ‘Prosecutor-general sacked by Morsi reinstated’,
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75698/Egypt/Politics-/Prosecutorgeneral-sacked-by-Morsi-reinstated.aspx

(3) = Amnesty International 02 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt: Mubarak verdict fails to deliver full justice’,  http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/egypt-mubarak-2012-06-02 ; ‘However, the acquittal of all the other defendants, including senior security officials, leaves many still waiting for full justice…Six senior security officials, including former head of the now-disbanded State Security Investigations service (SSI), were acquitted…Corruption charges against two of Mubarak’s sons, Gamal and Alaa, and his business associate Hussein Salem, who was tried in absentia, were dropped.’

(4) = VOA News 08 Jun 2013 ‘Anger Erupts in Egypt Over Mubarak Retrial’, http://www.voanews.com/content/anger-erupts-in-egypt-over-mubarak-trial/1677958.html ‘Anger erupted Saturday in the Egyptian court retrying ousted president Hosni Mubarak for complicity in the killings of hundreds of protesters, after a judge barred the participation of lawyers representing families of those killed.’

(5) = BBC News 22 Nov 2012 ‘Egypt's President Mursi assumes sweeping powers’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20451208 ; 3^rd para ‘President Mursi also sacked the chief prosecutor and ordered the retrial of people accused of attacking protesters when ex-President Mubarak held office.’

(6) = Egypt Independent 22 Nov 2012 ‘Morsy issues new constitutional declaration’,
http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/morsy-issues-new-constitutional-declaration

(7) = BBC News 14 Jun 2012 ‘Egypt supreme court calls for parliament to be dissolved’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18439530

(8) = NYT 02 Dec 2012 ‘Egyptian Court Postpones Ruling on Constitutional Assembly’,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/03/world/middleeast/egypt-morsi-constitution-vote.html

(9) = CNN 23 Nov 2012 ‘Egypt's Morsy says courts can't overturn him’,
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/22/world/meast/egypt-morsy-powers/index.html

(10) = BBC News 08 Jun 2012 ‘Egypt parties end deadlock over constitutional panel’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18360403   (reports on how Morsi added trade unionists, Coptic Christian church representatives and other appointees to the assembly drafting the constitution after the non-Islamist opposition boycotted it. However there were accusations that the new appointments included too many Islamists too)

(11) = BBC News 09 Dec 2012 ‘Egypt crisis: Morsi offers concession in decree annulment’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20655412

(12) = BBC News 23 Feb 2013 ‘Egypt's Morsi changes parliamentary elections date’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21559455

(13) = BBC News 07 Dec 2012 ‘Egypt opposition rejects President Morsi's call for talks’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20642080

(14) = AP / Time World 10 Dec 2012 ‘Gunmen Attack Egyptian Opposition Protesters’, http://world.time.com/2012/12/10/egypts-military-takes-over-security-ahead-of-vote/ ; 9^th to 10^th paragraphs ‘Cracks in the opposition’s unity first appeared last weekend when one of its leading figures, veteran opposition politician Ayman Nour, accepted an invitation by Morsi to attend a “national dialogue” meeting. On Monday, another key opposition figure, El-Sayed Badawi of the Wafd party, met Morsi at the presidential palace. The opposition has said it would not talk to Morsi until he shelves the draft constitution and postpones the referendum.’

(15) = BBC News 28 Jan 2013 ‘Egypt opposition rejects Mohammed Morsi dialogue call’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21234543

(16) = France 24 27 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt opposition rejects dialogue with Morsi’,
http://www.france24.com/en/20130627-egypt-opposition-rejects-dialogue-with-morsi

(17) = Wall Street Journal 05 Jul 2013 ‘Egyptians Open Door to Mubarak's Allies’,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324260204578587872719316196.html ; see 4^th, 17^th, 19^th , 20^th paragraphs ‘Mohammed Abul Ghar, the head of Egypt's secular-leaning Social Democratic Party and a leader in the National Salvation Front, the leading opposition group to Mr. Morsi…After Mr. Morsi claimed authority over Egypt's judiciary in November, many of the young secular activists behind the revolution against Mr. Mubarak made common cause with Mr. Shafiq's supporters and other NDP loyalists… The party decided to accept former NDP members who weren't close to Mr. Mubarak and whose records were clean of corruption allegations… Gamal al Zini, a former NDP parliamentarian from the Nile Delta city of Damiet, said he has had regular meetings with local youth activists, Tamarod leaders and members of Mr. ElBaradei's Constitution Party since May..’

(18) = Egypt Independent 20 Feb 2013 ‘Former NDP members to form new party’,
http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/former-ndp-members-form-new-party

(19) = Ahram Online 11 Feb 2011 ‘NDP Offshoots’,
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/33/104/26897/Elections-/Political-Parties/NDP-Offshoots.aspx

(20) = Al Jazeera 03 Jul 2013 ‘Egypt's Morsi offers consensus government’,
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/07/20137394753443155.html

(21) = Israel National News 03 Jul 2013 ‘Morsi Offers to Form Interim Coalition Government’, http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/169573#.UdY3aW3K5bM

(22) = ABC 04 Jul 2013 ‘Morsi aide says coup underway in Egypt after president defies army deadline to quit’, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-04/tensions-high-in-egypt-as-army-deadline-expires/4798284 , 11^th – 14^th paras, ‘In a last-ditch statement before the deadline passed at 1.00am (AEST), the presidency said a coalition government should be part of a solution to the country's political standoff. Mr Morsi reiterated his call for a national dialogue and the formation of a panel to amend the country's controversial Islamist-drafted constitution….Opposition parties refused to negotiate with him and met instead with the commander of the armed forces.’

(23) = BBC News 23 Feb 2013 ‘Egypt's Morsi changes parliamentary elections date’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21559455

(24) = BBC News 09 Dec 2012 ‘Egypt crisis: Morsi offers concession in decree annulment’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20655412

(25) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constituent_Assembly_of_Egypt (includes mainstream sources)

(26) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_parliamentary_election,_2011%23Combined_results

(27) = HRW 12 Dec 2012 ‘Egypt: Investigate Brotherhood’s Abuse of Protesters’, http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/12/12/egypt-investigate-brotherhood-s-abuse-protesters

(28) = ‘From Plebiscite to Contest? Egypt’s Presidential Election’, http://www.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/mena/egypt0905/egypt0905.pdf (see page 5 ‘Government Harassment’)

(29) = BBC News 07 Mar 2011 ‘Egypt protesters attacked by 'armed civilians' in Cairo’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12661270

(30) = Observer 30 Mar 2013 ‘How Egypt's radical rulers crush the lives and hopes of women’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/31/egypt-cairo-women-rights-revolution

(31) = Al Ahram 11 Feb 2013 ‘Shura MPs fault protesters for Tahrir Square rapes, sexual harassment’,
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/64552/Egypt/Politics-/Shura-MPs-fault-protesters-for-Tahrir-Square-rapes.aspx

(32) = Amnesty International UK 23 Dec 2011 ‘Egypt: 'shocking' violence against women protesters must not be repeated’, http://www.amnesty.org.uk/news_details.asp?NewsID=19876

(33) = Egypt women protesters forced to take 'virginity tests' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12854391 ; 2^rd to 4^th paragraphs read ‘Amnesty International …says at least 18 female protesters were arrested after army officers cleared Tahrir Square on 9 March. It says they were then beaten, given electric shocks and strip searched.’

(34) = Guardian 27 Dec 2011 ‘'Virginity tests' on Egypt protesters are illegal, says judge’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/27/virginity-tests-egypt-protesters-illegal

(35) = The National (UAE) 21 Dec 2011 ‘Egyptian military apologises for assaults on women protesters’, http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/middle-east/egyptian-military-apologises-for-assaults-on-women-protesters#ixzz2YWH5VOmZ ; see 5^th, second last and last paragraphs  ‘military police chasing young men and women through Tahrir Square and nearby streets, beating them with clubs and sticks. The latest crackdown has killed at least 12 people, all protesters, according to the ministry of health…doctors working …in Tahrir Square, say …between 14 and 18…But some female activists here say Mrs Clinton's focus on violence against women does a disservice to some of the larger abuses against the protest movement. "Clinton is missing the bigger picture..said Menna Alaa, 18, an Egyptian female blogger …"… the army is killing protesters - man, woman, child. They are not making distinctions"’

(36) = Global Post 20 Mar 2013 ‘Egypt bread protests begin after rationing announced’, http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/egypt/130320/cairo-egypt-bread-protests-rationing-fuel-shortage

(37) = Al Ahram 20 Dec 2012 ‘It’s still bread, freedom and social justice’, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/631/30/It%E2%80%99s-still-bread,-freedom-and-social-justice.aspx

(38) = guardian.co.uk 19 Mar 2013 ‘Bakers become latest victims of Egypt subsidy cuts’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/19/bakers-egyptian-subsidy-cuts

(39) = guardian.co.uk 01 Jul 2013 ‘Egypt's presidency defies threat of military coup’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/01/egypts-presidency-defies-threat-military-coup

(40) = guardian.co.uk 06 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt's gathering economic gloom leaves millions facing food shortages’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2013/jun/06/egypt-economic-gloom-food-shortages

(41) = ‘Egypt's new age of unrest is a taste of things to come’ by Dr Nafeez Ahmed, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/jul/04/egypt-muslim-brotherhood-morsi-unrest-protests

(42) = Guardian Weekly 18 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt sees Ethiopian damn as risk to water supply’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/18/egypt-ethiopia-dam-blue-nile

(43) = guardian.co.uk 11 Dec 2012 ‘Egypt's IMF loan deal postponed after Mohamed Morsi scraps tax increases’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/11/egypt-imf-loan-delay-morsi

(44) = guardian.co.uk 17 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt's Mohamed Morsi appoints hardline Islamist to govern Luxor’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/17/morsi-appoints-islamist-governor-luxor

(45) = AP / ABC News 28 Jun 2013 ‘Violence Flares in Egypt Before Weekend Rallies’, http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/egypts-opposition-criticizes-presidents-speech-19513846?page=3

(46) = Wall Street Journal 24 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt's Morsi And His Party Criticized After Killings’, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323998604578565510237185012.html

(47) = AP / Seattle Times 19 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt top cleric: Protests against Morsi permitted’,
http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2021218905_apmlegypt.html

(48) = Human Rights Watch 27 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt: Lynching of Shia Follows Months of Hate Speech’, http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/06/27/egypt-lynching-shia-follows-months-hate-speech

(49) = Al Ahram 24 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt's Morsi, Qandil denounce Shia killings’,
http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/74813.aspx

(50) = HRW 25 Oct 2011 ‘Egypt: Don’t Cover Up Military Killing of Copt Protesters’,
http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/10/25/egypt-don-t-cover-military-killing-copt-protesters

(51) = Egypt Independent 19 Dec 2011 ‘Politicians criticize 'Hitler' statements made by army official’,  http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/politicians-criticize-hitler-statements-made-army-official

(52) = Egypt Independent 28 Feb 2012 ‘Court imposes LE10,000 fine on SCAF member for 'Hitler's ovens' comment’, http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/court-imposes-le10000-fine-scaf-member-hitlers-ovens-comment

(53) = WSJ 04 Jul 2013 ‘After the Coup in Cairo’, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324399404578583932317286550.html#articleTabs=article (see last paragraph)

(54) = Amnesty International 22 Nov 2011 ‘Egypt: Military rulers have 'crushed' hopes of 25 January protesters’, http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/egypt-military-rulers-have-crushed-hopes-25-january-protesters-2011-11-22

(55) = Financial Times 06 Jul 2013 ‘Egypt counts its dead after day of violence’,
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3c61c72c-e54a-11e2-ad1a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2YOQLQWHZ , ‘Egypt was on Saturday recovering from a day of violence and mayhem after street battles between thousands of supporters and opponents of its ousted president raged across the country on Friday. At least least 35 people have been killed and 1,404 injured in the last 48 hours according to the health ministry....’

(56) = BBC News 05 Jul 2013 ‘Egypt unrest: Morsi marchers die as army fires’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23202096

(57) = Sky News 05 Jul 2013 ‘Egypt Coup: Morsi Protests Turn Deadly’,
http://news.sky.com/story/1111961/egypt-coup-morsi-protests-turn-deadly

(58) = Reuters 29 Jun 2013 ‘Fearing bloodshed, rival Cairo protests steel selves for Sunday’, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/29/us-egypt-protests-violence-idUSBRE95S0H820130629

(59) = Washington Post 02 Jul 2013 ‘Throngs rally in Egypt’,
http://articles.philly.com/2013-07-02/news/40309890_1_morsi-supporters-islamist-leader-muslim-brotherhood ; 2^nd paragraph ‘Thousands of Morsi supporters, many of them from his Muslim Brotherhood party, filled another Cairo thoroughfare with their own chants of support. Some brandished wooden clubs, canes, and metal pipes, ready to defend themselves’

(60) = Reuters 06 Jul 2013 ‘Protests rage across Egypt as Islamists vow further violence’, http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Pro-and-anti-Morsi-protests-rage-across-Egypt-leaving-at-least-24-dead-318904

(61) = The New Yorker 08 Jul 2013 ‘After the Shooting In Cairo’, http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2013/07/after-the-shooting-in-cairo.html

(62) = Zogby Research Services Jun 2013 ‘AFTER TAHRIR: Egyptians Assess Their Government, Their Institutions, and Their Future’ , http://www.aaiusa.org/page/-/Polls/EgyptianAttitudesTowardMB_%20June2013.pdf (see pages 10, 11,19 and 23 by numbers at foot of pages, or 12,13, 21 and 25 by PDF page counter)

(63) = Independent Media Review Analysis 18 Jun 2013 ‘Zogby poll of Egyptians: Morsi bad-do not want army take over’, http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=61307

(64) =  Wall Street Journal 17 May 2013 ‘Poll Shows Muslim Brotherhood Maintaining Support Despite Egypt’s Travails’, http://blogs.wsj.com/middleeast/2013/05/17/poll-shows-muslim-brotherhood-maintaining-support-despite-egypts-travails/

Supreme Court Judges in Egypt have little legitimacy as appointees of Mubarak dictatorship, but Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, though elected, need to compromise further on drafting a new constitution - while the opposition need to remember Morsy and the Brotherhood are elected and that another long period of instability could lead to a military coup or push the Brotherhood into the arms of the military

While there are some serious problems with the draft Egyptian constitution, much of the criticism of President Mohammed Morsy by the Egyptian opposition and much of the media has badly misrepresented the facts. Morsy, Egypt’s first democratically elected President since Independence in 1953, over-ruled judges most of whom are appointees of the former dictator Mubarak or of the military (1).

These judges have not only found almost everyone charged with killing, injuring or ordering the killing of unarmed protesters under Mubarak not guilty, they have also attempted to dissolve the elected Egyptian parliament and were considering dissolving a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution which includes representatives of trade unions, Coptic Christians, Al Azhar (an Islamic theological university, but one critical of the Muslim Brotherhood) – and this was after the Egyptian Supreme Constitutional Court judges had dissolved the previous Constituent Assembly, with the new Assembly being much more representative as a result (2) – (5).

Morsi’s decree merely allowed him to over-rule the dictatorship era judges until a new constitution was in place. This was to be for eight months as the constituent assembly finished drafting the new constitution (6).

(Some members of the opposition say he should have maintained the 1971 Constitution, but the 1971 constitution gives the President the power to to appoint or sack the Prime Minister and the entire cabinet (Article 141) and to choose when to dissolve the upper and lower houses of parliament to call new elections for them (e.g Article 204) (7). The new draft constitution says the President has to get parliament’s approval for his choice of Prime Minister and to go to war. So the draft constitution puts more limits on the President’s power than the existing 1971 one does.(8)- (10))

When the opposition claimed that Morsy was taking too many powers to himself and accused him of making himself a dictator he brought the referendum on the new constitution forward to 15^th December so he would have the powers for less than a month (11). Since then the opposition first said they wanted the referendum on the new constitution delayed until a wider range of people got input into the new draft constitution, before saying they want it cancelled entirely (12).

The draft constitution written by the Constituent Assembly, while it includes some very questionable Islamic fundamentalist aspects (e.g the only religions permitted are Muslim, Christian and Jewish ; and religious education is to be a core subject in primary and secondary schools) is in many ways much more progressive than the 1971 constitution – for instance including equality for women (marred by a qualification that this be where it would not conflict with Islam) and the right of all employees to have a share of profits of any firm or co-operative they work for, as well as for some employees to sit on the board of directors of any firm , plus a guarantee of the right to adequate housing, transportation, food and clothing, provided by the state where necessary (13).

The lack of protections in the Constitution seems to be far more serious for Shia Muslims and Baha’i (both considered “false” Muslims by Sunnis, the Muslim majority in Egypt) than Coptic Christians or women. As with Burmese Rohingya Muslims in Burma being labelled “not Burmese” by the Buddhist majority, the Sunni majority in Egypt say Egyptian Shia should “go back to their own country” (14).

Some of the claims that the draft constitution makes no reference to womens’ rights are wrong if you read it though (15) – (16).

Gang rapes of women in Egypt are still common, as they were under Mubarak, but whether these attacks are organised or permitted by the new government is not certain (17).

While the draft constitution makes many references to Islam and Sharia Law it says Al Azhar – Cairo’s main Islamic university – will decide on what does and does not conform to Islam or Sharia. Al Azhar’s current head was appointed by Mubarak, is fiercely critical of the Musim Brotherhood and is widely considered much more moderate than his predecessor, so any Egyptian version of Islamic law is likely to be much more moderate than that of the Taliban (18). This could change though, if a more extreme leadership takes over Al Azhar – and this is one of the major problems with the draft constitution. However if a majority of Egyptians vote for it, it will be hard to call this undemocratic.

The 1971 Constitution also says Sharia was to be the main source of legislation and it’s section on women’s rights is almost identical to the draft constitution’s. The only areas in which the draft constitution seems to be less progressive are in switching from freedom of religion to only allowing Islam, Judaism or Christianity; and in banning the NDP party which was Mubarak’s party and which had banned the Muslim Brotherhood (19).

Of course a progressive constitution does not guarantee progressive policies – and much of the opposition accuse the Brotherhood of continuing Mubarak’s neo-liberal policies on the orders of the IMF (20).

The opposition say Morsi has had his own people killed, just like Mubarak. Yet it seems so far that both sides’ supporters are killing one another (21). It’s possible Morsi is using Brotherhood thugs the way Mubarak used hired thugs to attack his opponents and claim no involvement, but it’s equally possible that both sides’ supporters are simply getting out of control.

Some revolutionaries seem to believe that any government which does not give them exactly what they or their party wants is illegitimate. The reality is that no government can ever give everyone exactly what they want, because there are too many different people and groups who want conflicting things. Morsi’s government is far from perfect, but it is at least democratically elected, so has some legitimacy whether the opposition, I or anyone else, likes or dislikes it’s policies and views.

While some opposition leaders, like Ayman Nour, have agreed to talks with Morsi, others like El Baradei, who refuse, may simply need to accept that they are in a minority and they will have to compromise to get even a little of what they want (22).

Of course being elected is not a blank cheque to do whatever you like without giving the people who elected you a say on it, but Morsi is providing the people with a say through a referendum.

Ideally a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution should be elected directly, rather than indirectly by the elected parliament, as with the current Egyptian one. The opposition seem to have decided that they will not accept anything except new elections months after the recent ones, on the grounds that they didn’t like the results of the last one. That is not reasonable and it is not likely that the results of new elections would be different.

All that the opposition’s refusal to talk to the elected President is doing is strengthening the hand of the military and former members of Mubarak’s dictatorship. Likely results could be a military coup and another military regime or dictatorship, or, even more likely, pushing the Muslim Brotherhood into the arms of the military.

(There has already been a sign of the latter in Morsy’s decree giving the military the power to arrest and try civilians until the 15^th December referendum. The draft constitution also makes a General elected by other military officers the Commander in Chief of the military – rather than the elected head of government being the CinC as in most democracies. There are also disturbing allegations that anti-Morsi protesters are being tortured by Muslim Brotherhood members before being handed over to police to be jailed (23) – (25)).

Neither outcome would be progress towards most of the revolutionaries’ aims. Much of the draft constitution would be. If they want it changed (and some of it badly needs changed) they should do what people have to do for a democracy to function – start discussing it with their opponents and negotiate a compromise that keeps the military and the former Mubarak regime cronies side-lined.

Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood also have to make compromises – starting with ending their refusal to delay the referendum on the new constitution until a draft more acceptable to the secular minority in Egypt and to religious minorities can be agreed on. This does not mean they have to accept the rulings of a constitutional court made up of appointees and sympathisers of the former dictator though (26).

The opposition have to remember that an indefinite delay in putting a new constitution into place could play into the hands of the military and former Mubarak regime members though, who could use the continuing instability as an excuse for a military coup that excludes any elected government.

Morsi has to remember that being in the majority in a democracy does not mean you can ignore the wishes of the minority entirely – and that around half the people who elected him were voting against Shafik and the Mubarak regime remnants rather than for him or the Brotherhood.

It’s possible that Morsi could yet turn out to be a would-be dictator and the Brotherhood could yet try to enforce fundamentalist Islam on all Egyptians, but a division between the secular and religious opposition to the former dictatorship and military rule could turn this into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Dialogue with them would be much better than making the Brotherhood likely to ally with the military, as has happened with Islamic fundamentalist parties and the military in Pakistan.

And if the opposition believe they can overthrow an elected President and an elected parliament as easily as they overthrew Mubarak, they are likely to be kidding themselves. In a democracy sometimes you have to accept election results that you don’t like.

 

(1) = CNN 23 Nov 2012 ‘Egypt's Morsy says courts can't overturn him’, http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/22/world/meast/egypt-morsy-powers/index.html ; 2^nd and 3^rd paragraphs ‘Morsy also ordered retrials and reinvestigations in the deaths of protesters during last year's uprising against strongman Hosni Mubarak. That could lead to the reprosecution of Mubarak, currently serving a life prison term, and several acquitted officials who served under him…The order for retrials could please some Egyptians who've expressed disappointment that security officers and others have escaped legal consequences over last year's protester crackdown by the Mubarak regime.’

(2) = BBC News 14 Jun 2012 ‘Egypt supreme court calls for parliament to be dissolved’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18439530

(3) = BBC News 09 Jul 2012 ‘Egypt court challenges Mursi's reopening of parliament’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18765947

(4) = New York Times 05 Dec 2012 ‘Egyptian Court Postpones Ruling on Constitutional Assembly’, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/03/world/middleeast/egypt-morsi-constitution-vote.html ; 1^st paragraph ‘Egypt’s constitutional court on Sunday put off its much-awaited ruling on the legitimacy of the Islamist-led legislative assembly that drafted a new charter last week, accusing a crowd of Islamists outside the courthouse of intimidating its judges’

(5) = New York Times 05 Dec 2012 ‘Egyptian Court Postpones Ruling on Constitutional Assembly’, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/03/world/middleeast/egypt-morsi-constitution-vote.html ; 6th paragraph ‘Egyptian courts had previously dissolved both the elected Parliament and an earlier Constitutional Assembly, and the breakup of the current one would have completely undone the transition. President Mohamed Morsi cited the pending ruling on Nov. 22 when he put his own edicts above judicial review until ratification of the constitution, saying that he intended to protect the assembly until it finished its work.’

(6) = Egypt Independent 22 Nov 2012 ‘Morsy issues new constitutional declaration’, http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/morsy-issues-new-constitutional-declaration

(7) = Guardian 10 Dec 2012 ‘Egypt's hopes betrayed by Morsi’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/dec/09/egypt-hopes-betrayed-mohamed-morsi ; 9^th paragraph ‘A leader who wanted to unite the country would use our 1971 constitution until we got through this difficult time. But once again we have a presidency that would see Egyptians murdering Egyptians on the streets before it puts aside party politics and tries to lead honestly in the interests of the people.’

(8) = Egypt State Information Service ‘Constitution of the Arab Republic of Egypt 1971’, http://www.sis.gov.eg/en/LastPage.aspx?Category_ID=208

(9) = Reuters 30 Nov 2012 ‘Factbox: Egypt's draft constitution’,
http://news.yahoo.com/factbox-egypts-draft-constitution-001332044--sector.html ; ‘POWERS - The constitution limits the president to two four-year terms. The president must secure parliament's approval for his choice of prime minister. The head of state can declare war with parliament's approval, but must consult a newly defined national defense council, in which generals outnumber civilians.’

(10) = Egypt 12 Feb 2012 ‘Egypt's draft constitution translated’,  http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/egypt-s-draft-constitution-translated

(11) = BBC News 10 Dec 2012 ‘Egypt: Who holds the power?’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18779934

(12) = Channel 4 News 09 Dec 2012 ‘Cairo protests: opposition demands referendum cancellation’, http://www.channel4.com/news/cairo-protests-opposition-demands-referendum-cancellation

(13) = Egypt State Information Service ‘Constitution of the Arab Republic of Egypt 1971’, http://www.sis.gov.eg/en/LastPage.aspx?Category_ID=208

(14) = New Statesman 03 Jul 2012 ‘The plight of Egypt’s forgotten Shia minority’, http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/world-affairs/2012/07/plight-egypt%E2%80%99s-forgotten-shia-minority

(15) = Amnesty International 30 Nov 2012 ‘Egypt’s new constitution limits fundamental freedoms and ignores the rights of women’, http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/egypt-s-new-constitution-limits-fundamental-freedoms-and-ignores-rights-women-2012-11-30

(16) = See (8) above

(17) = Unreported World, Channel 4 (UK), Series 2012, ‘ Episode 14 - Egypt: Sex, Mobs and Revolution’, http://www.channel4.com/programmes/unreported-world/episode-guide/series-2012/episode-14

(18) = Al Jazeera 28 May 2010 ‘Egypt appoints senior Sunni figure’, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2010/03/2010319165631215994.html

(19) = BBC News 30 Nov 2012 ‘Comparison of Egypt's suspended and draft constitutions’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20555478

(20) = Guardian 10 Dec 2012 ‘Egypt's hopes betrayed by Morsi’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/dec/09/egypt-hopes-betrayed-mohamed-morsi ; by Ahdaf Soueif;  4^th paragraph ‘Concerning the economy it's become clear that the Brotherhood's programme is basically Mubarak's: Morsi visited China accompanied by some of the biggest business allies of Mubarak; the banking communities talk of deals already being made by high-ranking officials and their relatives, and borrowing from the IMF and the World Bank is suddenly not sinful. Meanwhile, the president is able to issue the wildest constitutional declarations but is unable to make the smallest step towards establishing minimum and maximum wages.’

(21) = Independent 06 Dec 2012 ‘Egyptian military halts Cairo clashes after seven are killed’, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/egyptian-military-halts-cairo-clashes-after-seven-are-killed-8389573.html 6^th and 15^th paragraphs ‘Officials said seven people had been killed and 350 wounded in the violence, for which each side blamed the other. Six of the dead were Morsi supporters, the Muslim Brotherhood said… Rival factions used rocks, petrol bombs and guns in the clashes around the presidential palace.’

(22) = AP / Time World 10 Dec 2012 ‘Gunmen Attack Egyptian Opposition Protesters’, http://world.time.com/2012/12/10/egypts-military-takes-over-security-ahead-of-vote/ ; 9^th to 10^th paragraphs ‘Cracks in the opposition’s unity first appeared last weekend when one of its leading figures, veteran opposition politician Ayman Nour, accepted an invitation by Morsi to attend a “national dialogue” meeting. On Monday, another key opposition figure, El-Sayed Badawi of the Wafd party, met Morsi at the presidential palace. The opposition has said it would not talk to Morsi until he shelves the draft constitution and postpones the referendum.’

(23) = Human Rights Watch 10 Dec 2012 ‘Egypt: Morsy Law Invites Military Trials of Civilians’, http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/12/10/egypt-morsy-law-invites-military-trials-civilians

(24) = See (8) above

(25) = Al-Masry Al-Youhm 06 Dec 2012 ‘Al-Masry Al-Youm Reports On Brotherhood Torture Chambers’, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/12/muslim-brotherhood-egypt-torture-chambers.html

(26) = Voice of America 08 Dec 2012 ‘Egyptian Islamist Parties Reject Referendum Delay’, http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2012/12/08/egyptian-islamist-parties-reject-referendum-delay-2/

Extending term limits to allow Presidents to stand for more than one or two terms is not unconstitutional nor dictatorship nor undemocratic if it’s done democratically – whether it’s Chavez in Venezuela, Zelaya in Honduras or Kirchner in Argentina

It's ridiculous that amending a constitution by a democratic process is presented as unconstitutional by the right in Latin America and by people and governments in Europe and the US when commenting on Latin America.

They've done this with President Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, who held elections for a Constituent Assembly which then drafted a new constitution and voted to approve it.

They did it with President Zelaya in Honduras, who was overthrown in a military coup after he tried to hold a referendum on whether to elect a constituent assembly to amend the constitution to let Presidents serve a second term if re-elected. Zelaya’s plan did not even allow for him to stand in the upcoming elections, as the referendum results would only be known after them. This was to revise a constitution which was written when military death squads were still massacring people in the 80s - and to allow Presidents to have a second term in office – the existing constitution limiting it to one term. Polls showed 55% of Hondurans supported it.

In a supposed move to “defend the constitution” members of the Honduran congress and military violated it a dozen times over by a military coup against the elected President that also involved jailing people without trial, torturing them and murdering them.

Now President Fernandez Kirchner’s proposals to amend the constitution to allow Presidents to stand for a third term in Argentina are being labelled “unconstitutional” and “dictatorship” too (1).

If it wasn't for the First Amendment to the US constitution there would be no right to freedom of speech in the US. No-one said it or any other amendment to the constitution was “unconstitutional” or a move towards dictatorship.

British and Australian Prime Ministers can be elected for any number of terms - yet no-one called Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair would-be dictators when they stood for their third terms as heads of government.

In the US the constitution was only amended in 1951 to restrict Presidents to two terms after Franklin D Roosevelt won four elections in a row , because he'd angered the wealthiest and the big banks and firms with the New Deal policies that actually benefited the majority of the population and so reduced bank and big company profits. There’s an obvious parallel with Chavez there.

Some Republican members of congress even proposed scrapping the term limit in the US during Reagan’s second term as President to allow him to run for a third.

(1) = guardian.co.uk 06 Nov 2012 ‘Fernández de Kirchner reforms spark Argentina protests’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/06/fernandez-de-kirchner-reforms-protest

There is no agreement between Mubarak's people and the democratic opposition - and there are no divisions among the protesters

Mubarak’s dictatorship are trying to give the impression that they have negotiated an agreement between Mubarak’s Vice President Omar Suleiman and the democracy protesters and opposition parties. They haven’t. The only agreement is among Mubarak’s NDP party to try to give the impression they’re making progress towards democracy.

Ayman Nour of the El Ghad party has said there has been no agreement between Suleiman’s people and the protesters, as has Mohamed ElBaradei (contradicting the impression given by the Egyptian dictatorship that ElBaradei’s representative was a party to the ‘agreement’). El Baradei said “Nobody knows who is talking to whom at this stage. It's managed by Vice-President Suleiman. It is all managed by the military and that is part of the problem”

Abdel Monem Aboul Fotouh of the Muslim Brotherhood, said the government statement “does not include any solid changes.”

The Egyptian opposition continue to demand that Mubarak step down before negotiations begin on the formation of a National Unity government to organise the re-drafting of the constitution and hold free and fair elections – and for the Unity government to be in power for at least a year before elections to allow them to ensure they’re not rigged by Mubarak’s NDP like they have been in the past.

Since Mubarak has rigged every election he’s overseen in the last 30 years – and jailed even the candidates of parties he hadn’t banned (such as Nour), this is not an unreasonable demand.

The “Council of Wise Men” who are meant to be acting as intermediaries between Mubarak and the opposition are Mubarak’s people -  academics from the Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, the President of which , Abdel Monem Ali Sayed,  is a member of Mubarak’s ‘National Democratic Party’. (credit here to ‘The Angry Arab News Service’ for spotting this)

There is no mention of torture or jail without trial for the opposition in any of the Al Ahram center’s online commentaries – and none of election rigging either (though to be fair, if there was, they’d have been sacked and probably in prison themselves by now).

The only noteworthy concessions offered by Suleiman in the statement released on the “agreement” have been an end to the state of emergency which has existed since the assassination of Sadat in 1973; the freeing of all political prisoners and a guarantee that they will be allowed to be politically active without limitations. Whether these will be implemented or not is another question.

There are statements about the establishment of various committees to amend the constitution (not to write a new one)– but how the membership of them is to be decided and by who is left vague.

There are also various ominous statements such as “Pursuit of corruption, and an investigation into those behind the breakdown of security in line with the law”, “Restoring the security and stability of the nation, and tasking the police forces to resume their role in serving and protecting the people.” And “All participants expressed their absolute rejection of any and all forms of foreign intervention in internal Egyptian affairs.”

These are ominous because the police have been the main instigators of violence and because they echo Mubarak propaganda about ElBaradei being an American, the protests being organised by “foreigners”including Israelis and attacks by Mubarak supporters on foreign journalists and Egyptian protesters for being “foreign agents”.

The intention of the statement is probably to allow foreign governments (especially the US government) to present it to their publics as evidence of progress towards democracy – and to try to give the impression that the opposition is too divided for negotiations to succeed (when the actual problem is that the opposition are united in demanding Mubarak step down and allow a national unity government, while Mubarak and his henchmen like Suleiman refuse).

 

Main sources

The Washington Post 5 Feb 2011 ‘For cautious Mubarak, change became overwhelming’,http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/05/AR2011020503867.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2011020402531 ; see page 2, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/05/AR2011020503867_2.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2011020402531

Reuters 05 Feb 2011 ‘Opposition divided ahead of talks with Egypt's VP’,  http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41439419/ns/world_news-mideast/n_africa/

Bloomberg 06 Feb 2011 ‘Suleiman, Egypt Opposition Agree to Form Panel for Constitutional Changes’,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-06/suleiman-egypt-opposition-agree-to-form-panel-for-constitutional-changes.html

Guardian News Blog – Egypt Protests 06 Feb 2011 3.46p.m, http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2011/feb/06/egypt-hosni-mubarak#block-26 , statement from Suleiman's office

Guardian News Blog – Egypt Protests 06 Feb 2011, 5.03 p.m summary,http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2011/feb/06/egypt-hosni-mubarak#block-28#block-30

Guardian.co.uk 06 Feb 2011 ‘Egyptian opposition cautious after vice-president Suleiman opens talks’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/06/egypt-omar-suleiman-talks-opposition

Guardian.co.uk 05 Feb 2011 ‘Egypt: Why 25 January will be a date enshrined in the country's history’, by Ayman Nour and Wael Nawara,http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/05/egypt-rebirth-of-a-nation?INTCMP=SRCH

Bloomberg 06 Feb 2011 ‘Egypt’s Treaty With Israel Is ‘Rock Solid,’ ElBaradei Says , http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-06/egypt-s-treaty-with-israel-is-rock-solid-elbaradei-says.html ; ‘ElBaradei urged “a year of transition or a government of national unity, of caretaker government that prepares properly for free and fair election,” speaking on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS” program. “I think any election in the next coming of months before the right people establish parties and engage, it will be again a fake -- a fake democracy.”’