Showing posts with label killings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label killings. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Norway killings show the Islamisation of Europe myth is a greater threat to democracy than Al Qaeda

The myths that Muslim immigrants are taking over Europe and that multiculturalism is harmful caused the murders in Norway.  As in the 1930s the real threats to democracy are irrational hatred of minorities and the mass unemployment which is increasing them.

There is a dangerous myth being spread by the hard right in the UK, Europe and in the US – that Muslims are on their way to taking over Europe through immigration and high birth rates which will result in them outnumbering non-Muslims and imposing Sharia law on us all (1) – (5). The Norwegian lunatic Anders Behring Breivik who shot dozens of teenagers is one of millions saying he opposes “multiculturalism” and “an Islamic takeover of Europe” or “Islamisation”. He says he targeted the Norwegian Labour party for being “traitors” by allowing immigration (6) – (8). These myths are being spread not just by the far right but by columnists in mainstream newspapers, tabloids and magazines. They’re also being pandered to and repeated by many senior members of mainstream parties of the centre-right and centre-left in order to get easy votes – and held by some of their smaller coalition partners.  

These beliefs are a much greater threat to democracy in Britain and Europe than Islamic extremism is because they are held by a much larger and faster growing proportion of the population. As a result the far right have made electoral breakthroughs and the main parties have adopted some of their policies and rhetoric, making more people believe them. These false beliefs have increased during the current recession due to governments and media owners looking for scapegoats to avoid taking the blame themselves, just as similar myths and hatred against Jews, gypsies and immigrants did during the Great Depression of the 1930s, but they have never really gone away – they’ve just switched targets.

The ‘Islamisation’ of Europe myth is that Muslims are going to take over Europe by becoming a majority through immigration and a higher birth rate, then imposing Sharia law on everyone.

The facts and figures on Muslim vs non-Muslim immigration and birth rates in Europe

While a few Muslim extremists in the UK have talked of outnumbering non-Muslims by having lots of children, the figures and research show the Muslim takeover theory would be funny if it wasn’t so widely believed and so dangerous (9). The Pew Research Center in the US found that between 1990 and 2010 the Muslim population of Europe rose from 26 million to about 41 million (and that’s for the whole of Europe – including Eastern European countries outside the EU – e.g Bosnia, Albania and Kosovo). However since this was a small minority of the total population and many immigrants are not Muslims the rise was from 4.1% of the population of Europe to 6%  (10).

Since Pew also found that  birth rates among Muslims globally and in the EU have been falling fast over those 30 years there is no prospect whatsoever of Muslims becoming a majority in the EU (11). Muslims are also a minority of  immigrants  - just 28% of immigrants to the UK in 2010 were Muslims and only 13% of those to Spain – with the average rate for the 14 EU members listed by the Pew report being 28%. The only country with more Muslim than non-Muslim immigrants is France, with 68.5%, because of it’s links with it’s former North African colonies in Morocco and Algeria (12).

Despite the myths, the only countries with which EU member states have uncontrolled immigration are other EU member states  – and uncontrolled immigration only applies to people with EU citizenship, not asylum seekers or migrant workers who are not citizens of an EU country. EU member states’ immigration policy on immigration from outside the EU and on illegal immigration has also become harsher due to EU agreements, not softer (13).

So a large proportion of immigrants to EU countries come from other EU countries, none of which have a Muslim majority or anything close to one. The non-Muslim majority of immigrants from outside the EU and from poorer EU countries to wealthier ones tend to have high birth rates, just like the Muslim minority of immigrants from outside the EU (14) – (16).

The only fact the anti-immigration and anti-Muslim arguments have on their side is that overall birth rates among the non-immigrant population are too low to even maintain the existing population sizes of EU countries without continued immigration. However the effect of this is reduced by the tendency for the children of immigrants to have less children, falling by the second or third generation (on average) to no more children than average for the existing population (i.e falling towards less than two children per couple) (14) –(16).

Research in Europe confirms that the children of Muslim immigrants have less children than their parents did - showing that from the second generation on birth rates among Muslims fall to similar levels to non-Muslim natives – and that includes the Netherlands, despite what Geert Wilders claims (17) – (19). (Credit here to the Yellow Stars Euro Blog post ‘Islamification Myth’ ).

(There has been a big fall in immigration to the EU as a result of the recession caused by the banking crisis and this combined with the increase in immigration from North Africa due to revolutions and wars taking place in the ‘Arab Spring’ may lead to an increasing percentage of immigrants being Muslims (partly because the EU and it’s member governments were  funding the North African dictatorships to prevent immigration to Europe), but since this is partly because overall immigration levels are down, the chances of them becoming a majority in most countries in the EU would still be negligible (20) – (22). )

Most European Muslims are not extreme fundamentalists

Then there’s the false assumption that most Muslims living in and migrating to Europe are extreme fundamentalists who believe in a Taliban or Saudi Arabian version of Sharia law and sympathise with Al Qa’ida, based on demonstrations by handfuls of extremists. In fact, while polls show a higher proportion of Muslims are strongly religious than the average, a poll of British Muslims in 2006 found that more opposed Sharia law (41%) than supported it (40%) – though you wouldn’t have known that form the Telegraph newspaper’s headline which only mentioned the second figure (23).

There are also many interpretations of Sharia law, with a great deal of debate even among devout Muslims as to which parts of the Koran and other Islamic texts apply to the modern day and which don’t and on whether Sharia should adapt to present customs or not.  Some of the more liberal interpretations by Muslim scholars say ‘ijtihad’ (interpretive reasoning) can be used by Muslims to decide how to apply Islamic principles in the present to particular situations. Many interpretations are much less extreme than the Taliban’s or Saudi Arabia’s and don’t involve beheadings, stoning for adultery or cutting off the hands of thieves (24) – (25).  (I am certainly not advocating Sharia law here, just pointing out that not all Muslims who support Sharia are extremists supporting stoning, beheadings and amputations).

The 2006 poll also showed that 99% of British Muslims believed that the London bombings were wrong and “an atrocity” (26).

Even in the hugely unlikely event of any EU countries having a Muslim majority they might well not implement Sharia law anyway. Neither Bosnia, Kosovo, nor Albania have Sharia law despite having majority Muslim populations ; Nor does Turkey, with an Islamic party having been in government for over a decade.

Even if Turkey were to gain membership of the EU ( which is very unlikely to happen) most Turkish Muslims are less than fundamentalist, drinking alcohol, cutting or shaving their facial hair and eating pork for instance (27).

Immigrants are influenced by societies they move to as much as they influence them -

and current immigration is nothing unprecedented historically

Another dodgy assumption made by the anti-Muslim-ites is that Muslim immigrants and their children and grandchildren and great grandchildren will all remain devout Muslims and will not inter-marry with or be influenced by the non-Muslim majority they live among. This seems highly unlikely based on past waves of immigration such as Irish immigration to the UK in the 17th to 20th centuries (which was often accompanied by hysteria from many Protestants about how this could allow a Catholic takeover, with Catholicism imposed on everyone by the Irish through immigration and high birth rates). Later generations have tended to be less religious and to have smaller families as their education and income levels rose and they had more contact with non-Catholics.  (I’m using the term ‘anti-Muslim-ites’ rather than ‘Islamophobes’ because their beliefs are as prejudiced against all Muslims, as irrational and as full of hatred as anti-Semites’ hatred of all Jews).

The same would seem likely to happen with how religious second and later generations are, though bigots and hate mongers like the British National Party, the English Defence League and Breivik have created a reaction among a minority of European Muslims who have reasserted their identity more forcefully in a refusal to be intimidated. Extreme Bosnian Serb and Croatian nationalist attacks on Muslims in the Bosnian war similarly led to a growth in fundamentalism among a Muslim population who previously were happy to celebrate Christmas and drink alcohol (most still are).

So there is no reason to think that immigration to Europe by Muslims will ‘destroy society’ and lead to the ‘native people’ being overwhelmed any more than many previous waves of immigration. Many of these involved violent raiding, murders, rapes and all out war and invasion by people of different religions (for instance the Celts, Romans and Saxons all worshipped different Gods and had significantly different cultures and languages – and the Normans and Vikings had different languages and cultures from the Anglo-Saxons). The current waves of immigration are non-violent and controlled by EU governments – most violence involved is by immigration officers or private security guards involved in forcible deportations.

The numbers of immigrants are certainly greater than in  the past due to higher global population and birth rates and modern transport, but the technology and organisation of controls on immigration are also more advanced and birth rates have been falling for over a decade even in most of the higher birth rate countries.

The real danger is that the extreme right will either get into government again across Europe through a mixture of irrational hatred of all Muslims and immigrants and mass unemployment and poverty caused by austerity policies; or else mainstream parties will continue to go further and further in adopting the policies of the extreme right to keep power (as many already have), rather than challenge and defeat them by reducing the real cause of the problem – unemployment.

A global extremist ideology with far more believers than Al Qa’ida – and far more influential ones

British journalist and author Melanie Phillips - an exponent of the Islamisation myth and the supposed threat of multiculturalism, quoted at length by Breivik

The Norwegian mass murder Breivik’s ideology is part of a growing global extremist movement with far more believers than Al Qa’ida has ever had, comparable to global anti-Semitism and fascist movements during the Great Depression.

A large minority of European and American politicians and newspaper editors have argued that while Breivik’s actions were insane, his beliefs are valid. For instance Francesco Speroni, Chief Whip of the Italian Northern League party in the Italian parliament and former minister in one of Berlusconi’s coalition governments has said that “Breivik's ideas are in defence of western civilisation”. Speroni is an admirer of the late Oriana Fallaci, an Italian journalist and author who popularised the supposed threat of ‘Eurabia’ – Islamisation and Arabisation of Europe (28).

Italian MEP Mario Borgezio, a member of Prime Minister Berlusconi’s coalition partner party the Northern League, has said that “Some of the ideas he expressed are good, barring the violence. Some of them are great” (29).

Breivik’s condemnation of multiculturalism and the supposed ‘Islamisation of Europe’ echo many articles by right wing American commentators like Daniel Pipes in the US and former Daily Mail columnist Melanie Phillips in the UK. Breivik quoted an entire Phillips article from the Daily Mail in 2009 in his online manifesto. In it Phillips claimed the British Labour party in government had allowed unrestricted immigration (false – there were for instance many deportations of black Zimbabweans back to torture or death at Mugabe’s hands, just as under the Conservatives) and that Labour had done this  in order to deliberately “destroy British society” to get the votes of immigrants (30) – (31).

In 2002 Phillips wrote that “Multiculturalism is predicated on the idea that all faiths are equal; but …if enfeebled Christianity no longer identifies itself as the spiritual pastor of the culture…Islam will move into the vacuum.” And that “The question the multiculturalists have to answer is..: are we a western culture, or are we to become something else? If the latter, who is making the decision to wipe out our national identity? Because if we take in enough people who refuse to assimilate to western values, this belief system will not survive.” (32). She has had many similar rants since on her website here and in her book ‘The World turned upside down’. Surprisingly this book is about how the Muslims and the immigrants are taking over due to political correctness gone maaaad.

Bruce Bawer, the American author of one of many fear-mongering books on ‘Islamisation’ called ‘While Europe Slept: How Radical Islam Is Destroying the West from Within’, had a comment piece published in the Wall Street Journal in which he claimed Breivik had “legitimate concern about genuine problems” such as “the rise of Islam in Europe”. Bawer notes that Breivik had quoted his book 22 times in his online manifesto. (33).

Former senior Republican congressman Newt Gingrich (who is running to be the Republican Presidential candidate) has said that America is in danger of becoming a “secular atheist country, potentially one dominated by radical Islamists and with no understanding of what it once meant to be an American.”. Gingrich is clearly playing to the Islamisation myth here, similarly to Phillips – that if we aren’t all right wing Christian fundamentalists the Muslims will take over - but applied to the US (34).

American politician Pat Buchanan, a former member of the Nixon administration, has also written pieces claiming that the Islamisation of Europe which Breivik fears is a real threat (35). Both Bawer and Buchanan praise Brievik’s supposedly deep knowledge of European culture and history and his “intelligence”.

Breivik also talked online of his contacts with the far right English Defence League which also says it opposes ‘Islamisation’ and ‘multiculturalism’ – and online posts by EDL members said he’d given talks and been to demonstrations with them in the UK (36).

The role of Pamela Geller of the Tea Party wing of the US Republican party in spreading anti-Muslim hatred and opposition to multicultural society in Norway is so great that I’m making a separate post on it, but note here that Breivik often posted on Geller’s blog and read her posts (including one claiming all rapes in the past 5 years in Norway were committed by Muslims) and that Geller held rallies against ‘Islamisation’ and ‘multi-culturalism’ in Norway. Geller also blames “the Euro-Med policy” for “inciting” Breivik.

Murdoch’s Sun newspaper didn’t bother waiting for the facts on the Norway attacks, but went ahead and published a front page claiming it was ‘Norway’s 9/11’ and an ‘Al Qaeda massacre’.

Big parties in government adopting far right rhetoric and policies, strengthening the far right

President Sarkozy’s mass forced deportation of gypsies, who are EU citizens born in the EU, from France, to try to avoid losing votes going to the French National Front, is one chilling example of mainstream parties adopting far right policies (37) – (38). The Nazis and the Vichy French collaborators sent gypsies to the concentration camps along with the Jews during the Second World War.

During mayoral elections in Milan and Naples in May Berlusconi and his favoured candidates made their crackdown on immigrants (especially Muslim ones) and closure of gypsy camps the main theme of their campaign, accusing their challengers of being soft on both. Berlusconi’s favoured candidate in Milan lost heavily this time, but The Guardian reported that :

‘Professor James Walston of the American University of Rome, said he feared Berlusconi's tactics could have a lasting impact on interracial and interfaith relations in Italy. "This type of language has been used by the prime minister, not some neo-fascist maniac on the fringes," he said. "It will be difficult to bring Italian political language back to acceptable European levels."’ (39)

There are some genuine problems with crimes by some gypsies, just as there are some extreme fundamentalists and a tiny number of terrorists among European Muslims, but this does not make prejudice against all gypsies or Muslims acceptable any more than it would be acceptable to blame all white, Christian, Europeans for Breivik’s actions. It’s prejudice and political hate and fear-mongering.

Anti-semitism – hatred of Jews was as widespread and socially acceptable in Europe, Britain, the US and Canada in the 1930s and even during World War Two as prejudice against all Muslims and immigrants is now (40). It was accompanied by hatred of immigrants (many Jewish) and gypsies. It continued even up until the Holocaust was revealed in full after World War Two. Then, too, it was mostly the far right who hated the minorities, not the left, with Communists in London fighting Mosley’s fascist anti-Semitic blackshirts who modelled themselves on the Nazis. While some serious anti-Semitism remains, hatred of Muslims and immigrants has become more common.

Governments claiming ‘multiculturalism has failed’ has boosted the far right

The Conservative party in the UK, including Prime Minister David Cameron, have also pandered to the far right by claiming that “multiculturalism has failed” – a claim echoed by Sarkozy in France and Merkel in Germany (41) – (43). To the bigots and the unemployed who blame them for the loss of their jobs the word ‘multiculturalism’ means two things – allowing foreigners with different skin colours and religions into our countries and allowing them to marry Christians and white people. Breivik shot dozens of teenagers dead to punish them for supporting ‘multiculturalism’.

Nick Griffin, the leader of the neo-fascist British National Party, was over-joyed at Cameron’s speech, calling it “A further huge leap for our ideas into the political mainstream” and adding that “A few years ago we had the then Labour Home Secretary David Blunkett admitting that ‘multiculturalism has failed” (44).

 It has not failed though. People of different religions and races can mostly get on with each other, do business, be friends, marry one another and influence each other culturally as equals – and both sides tend to learn and gain from the interaction, getting the best ideas and traditions from each culture. The alternative is a slide towards defining only white Christians as being true Europeans – and that has led to genocide and world wars in the past.

To be fair what Cameron, Sarkozy, Merkel and Blunkett mean by 'multiculturalism' is different cultures, religions or races living entirely separately from one another, but this is more the result of unemployment leading to less contact between communities than of any new failure to integrate. It also fails to take into account the fact that past waves of immigrants have taken time to integrate into society as their children, grandchildren and great grandchildren come into more contact with people of religions and cultures different from their parents. Some of the same politicians talking about the problems of 'multiculturalism' have also strengthened it by supporting faith based schools which hinder the normal process of integration through going to the same schools. Encouraging integration by offering e.g free English classes and community centres and evening classes is fine, but the idea that people should be 'made' to integrate is verging on fascism. How much or how little people want to be involved with others and in what ways are up to them, whether they're immigrants or not. The same goes for imposing one version of what it means to be British or French or German on everyone and demanding they all adopt it.

Though we could yet avoid it, we are risking heading towards a situation like the one in the Great Depression where anti-Semitism against Jewish immigrants and hatred of gypsies combined with austerity policies to lead to fascism, though this time the targets of opportunity for the hate mongers are Muslims and immigrants.

The far right switch targets of opportunity – from Jews to Muslims

The leader of the British National Party and a second candidate – Andrew Brons – were elected as members of the European Parliament in 2008. Griffin had previously written of the “courage” and “sacrifice” of the Waffen SS and in 1998 told a court that the Holocaust never happened and was a mixture of “lies” and propaganda”, while Brons had been a member of the British National Socialist Movement and used to chant “death to Jews” at rallies (45) – (47).

After September 11th though Griffin and his party renounced those views, realising that it was now more popular to spread hatred of Muslims than to spread hatred of Jews. The party changed it’s rules to allow Jews to become members and reversed it’s rhetoric on Israel from unthinking hatred to unthinking and unconditional support for the Israeli government, including Griffin boasting of his support for the Israeli ‘Operation Cast Lead’ which killed over a thousand civilians.

Similarly Gianfranco Fini, who  between 2001 And 2004 held the posts of Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister in the Italian government, was famous in the 1980s through to 1994 for his proud boast that his MSI (Italian Social Movement) party was a fascist party led by the proud heirs of Mussolini who “was the greatest Italian statesman of the twentieth century”.

Yet by 2003 Fini had travelled to Israel to apologise for the shameful way Italian Jews were sent to the German concentration camps by Mussolini’s fascists – and in 2009, as President of the Italian parliament, Fini said that protesters in Turin burning Israeli flags was “far more serious” than a neo-fascist gang beating a man to death (48).

This is clearly more political opportunism than any kind of change of beliefs at work. When challenged during a BBC debate on his past Holocast denial, Griffin merely answered “I can't tell you why I used to say those things anymore than I can tell you why I have changed my mind” (49). I think I can. After September 11th it became more popular to blame all Muslims for the actions of Al Qa’ida than to try to blame all Jews for some of the actions of the Israeli government and military, so Muslims became the new targets of opportunity along with immigrants and gypsies.

The Real Threats to Democracy – Mass unemployment caused by neo-liberal economic and public spending policies combined with scapegoating of immigrants and religious minorities – just as in the 1930s

British fascist leader Oswald Mosley and his Nazi style blackshirts in London during the Great Depression of the 1930s

The real threat to democracy and European and national values of tolerance comes from the extreme right and the growing belief in the myths that they spread. This is made worse by mainstream parties seeming to give credibility to many of these myths by competing to by “tougher on immigration”, by their demands that European Muslims “deal with the extremists in their midst” as though Muslims were all responsible for Al Qa’ida (note no similar calls for Christians to sort out the extreme fundamentalists in their midst after the Norwegian attack by a Christian extremist) and by their constant references to the British National Party and other hard right extremists as if they were the only alternative to the big parties, ignoring Green parties, socialists, Independent candidates and others.

It would be interesting to see a poll of non-Muslims in the UK, Norway or Europe on how many sympathise with the motives of the Norwegian lunatic and how many think his actions were justified. Given the levels of support for the BNP, the English Defence League and others the results would probably give much more cause for concern.

Geert Wilders extreme right ‘Freedom Party’ in the Netherlands won more seats than one of the major parties – the Christian Democrats – in a 2010 election campaign run with adverts showing women clad in burkhas getting pensions before white Dutch women, who were left with none (50).

This threat is made more serious by mass unemployment, welfare cuts and 1930s style austerity policies which risk a second recession. Unemployment, not immigration, has always been the main factor boosting support for the hard right.

When the last textile factories in the North of England closed in the late 90s there were race riots in the towns of Oldham, Bradford and Burnley where the factories had been - and the vote of the BNP rose, getting them several council seats (51) – (52). After the current recession the BNP increased its vote and had MEPs elected for the first time in the UK and since the 2010 elections in the Netherlands the government is reliant on the ‘Freedom Party’ for majorities in votes.

Sarkozy’s government in France and Berlusconis in Italy have also become increasingly anti-immigration in their policies and rhetoric and neo-fascist parties like Fini’s ‘Future and Freedom’ party have been part of the governing coalition in Italy for most of the period since1994.

The current rise of the far right parallels the rise of the Nazis in German during the Great Depression (pointed out by Aneurin Bevan in his book ‘In Place of Fear’ which my blog is named after), in terms of free trade and reduced welfare and public sector employment having led to rising unemployment, with minority religious groups and immigrants used as scapegoats, leading to the rise of the far right.

 Bevan showed that the vote for the Nazi party in Germany from 1924 to 1933 rose and fell as the numbers of unemployed did (Bevan 1952 – Chapter 1, note I). In the 1928 elections when unemployment was around 1.3 million the Nazis won only 12 seats in the Reichstag. In 1932 when unemployment had risen to 5.6 million they became the largest party with 230 seats. (Unemployment figures are from Bevan, election results from this BBC history page) (53) – (54).

Current austerity policies in Europe and Republican party obstruction of Obama’s and the Democrats’ attempts to create some kind of new New Deal to create jobs and economic growth again are risking not only a second recession but also boosting the far right again as a result of even higher unemployment. We have to put pressure on our governments to change policy in case they end up repeating the mistakes of the 1930s.


Sources

(1) = Telegraph 08 Aug 2009 ‘Muslim Europe: the demographic time bomb transforming our continent’,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/5994047/Muslim-Europe-the-demographic-time-bomb-transforming-our-continent.html

(2) = New York Sun 11 Jun 2004 ‘Muslim Europe’ by Daniel Pipes,http://www.danielpipes.org/1796/muslim-europe

(3) = National Interest March-April 2007 ‘Europe's Stark Options’,http://www.danielpipes.org/4323/europes-stark-options

(4) =Jerusalem Post 03 Jan 2008 ‘Will Europe Resist Islamization?’,http://www.danielpipes.org/5503/will-europe-resist-islamization

(5) = Restvradrini.com 11 Apr 2011 ‘Daniel Pipes: “You can’t fight Islamism with ideas coming out of Europe”’,http://www.revistadrini.com/2011/04/02/daniel-pipes-you-cant-fight-islamism-with-ideas-coming-out-of-europe-3/

(6) = Channel 4 news 25 jul 2011 ‘Norway gunman claims two more terror cells exist’,http://www.channel4.com/news/norway-gunman-to-appear-in-court ; ‘Arriving to angry scenes after Norway had observed a minute's silence to honour the dead, Breivik said his fight was against "cultural Marxism" and a Muslim takeover of Europe. He added that his objective was "to give a sharp signal to the people" and to make the Labour party pay "the price of their treason."

(7) = Channel 4 news 23 jul 2011 ‘Norway attacks Anders Behring Breivik profile’, http://www.channel4.com/news/oslo-attacks-anders-behring-breivik-profile ; ‘ Other posts under Breivik's name criticise European policies of trying to accommodate the cultures of different ethnic groups, and claim a significant minority of young British Muslims back radical Islamic militancy…. In one posting he called for the establishment of a "Norwegian EDL" and he claims to have had contact with it and another far-right organisation, Stop the Islamification of Europe’

(8) = Channel 4 News 24 Jul 2011 ‘Norwegian gunman tells police he acted alone’, http://www.channel4.com/news/norwegian-gunman-tells-police-he-acted-alone ; ‘He also attacked "the Islamic colonisation and Islamisation of Western Europe" and "rise of cultural Marxism/multiculturalism".

The facts and figures on Muslim vs non-Muslim immigration and birth rates in Europe

 (9) = Daily Mail 13 Sep 2008 ‘'Have more babies and Muslims can take over the UK' hate fanatic says, as warning comes that 'next 9/11 will be in UK'’, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1054909/Have-babies-Muslims-UK-hate-fanatic-says-warning-comes-9-11-UK.html

(10) = Pew Research Center 27 Jan 2011 ‘The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Projections for 2010-2030 ; region – Europe’ , http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-europe.aspx ; See second graphic – ‘Europe - Muslims as a share of overall population 1999 – 2030’

(11) = Pew Research Center 27 Jan 2011 ‘The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Projections for 2010-2030 ; region – Europe’ , http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-europe.aspx ; See third graphic – ‘Europe – Annual Population growth rates for Muslims and non-Muslims’

(12) = Pew Research Center 27 Jan 2011 ‘The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Projections for 2010-2030 ; region – Europe’ , http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-europe.aspx ; See thirteenth graphic (below sub-heading ‘Migration’) – ‘Europe – Net Muslim migration to selected countries 2010’

(13) = BBC News 13 Aug 2008 ‘Q&A: EU immigration policy’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7667169.stm

(14) = Tomas Frejka, Jan Michael Hoem, Laurent Toulemon, Tomas Sobotka (editors) (2009) ‘Childbearing trends and policies in Europe, Volume 1’ in Demographic Research , Vol 19, Articles I – X, pages 11 & 231,http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=dUHXPHaZE6cC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false (on the fact that  all immigrants having higher fertility levels than existing citizens of the EU and on convergence of birth rates between the two over time due to immigrant birth rate falling)

(15) = Nadja Milewski (2010) ‘Immigration fertility in west Germany : Is there a socialisation effect in transition to second and third births’,http://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/files/peer/Peer_184-2010-11-11.pdf

(16) = Thomas Sobotka (2007) ‘Overview Chapter 7: The rising importance of migrants for childbearing in Europe’, in Demographic Research 1 Jul 2008 (VOLUME 19 - ARTICLE 9, pages 225 – 248, http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/9/

(17) = Joop Garssen & Han Nicolaas (2008) ‘Fertility of Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands: Adjustment to native level within one generation’, in  Demographic Research 18 Jul 2008 (vol 19 article 33, pages 1249 – 1280) , http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/33/

(18) = BBC radio 4 ‘Disproving the Muslim Demographics sums’ 07 Aug 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8189434.stm ;  (relates to claims made by Geert Wilders’ Freedom party in the Netherlands on Muslim birth rates there)

(19) = Mary Mederios Kent (2008) ‘Do Muslims Have More Children Than Other Women in Western Europe?’ in Population Bureau February 2008,http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/muslimsineurope.aspx

(20) = Time 15 Feb 2011 ‘After Revolution, Italy Faces Flood of Tunisian Migrants’, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2049216,00.html#ixzz1UTuIVWT3

(21) = EU Business 20 Mar 2011 ‘Libya suspends help on illegal EU immigration’,http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/libya-unrest.95w/

(22) = Migration Policy Institute 2010 ‘Migration and Immigrants Two Years after the Financial Collapse: Where Do We Stand?’,http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/MPI-BBCreport-2010.pdf

Most European Muslims are not extreme fundamentalists

(23) = Telegraph 19 Feb 2006  ‘Poll reveals 40pc of Muslims want sharia law in UK’,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1510866/Poll-reveals-40pc-of-Muslims-want-sharia-law-in-UK.html

(24) = Council on Foreign Relations 10 Nov 2010 ‘Islam: Governing Under Sharia’,http://www.cfr.org/religion/islam-governing-under-sharia/p8034#p2

(25) United States Institute of Peace & The Center for Study of Islam and Democracy ‘Itjihad – Reinterpreting Islamic Principles for the 21st Century’, http://www.usip.org/files/resources/sr125.pdf

(26) = See (22) above

(27) = BBC News 06 Feb 2009 ‘Turkish contradictions test Islam’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7873081.stm

A global extremist ideology with far more believers than Al Qa’ida – and far more influential ones

(28) = guardian.co.uk 27 Jul 2011 ‘Ex-Berlusconi minister defends Anders Behring Breivik’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/27/ex-berlusconi-minister-defends-breivik

(29) = BBC News 27 Jul 2011 ‘Italy MEP backs ideas of Norway killer Breivik’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14315108

(30) = See (2) to (5) above

(31) = Independent 26 Jul 2011 ‘The right-wing columnists in killer's 'manifesto'’,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/the-rightwing-columnists-in-killers-manifesto-2325918.html

(32) = The Spectator Magazine 11 May 2002 ‘How the West was Lost’ by Melanie Phillips,http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/all/9980/part_6/how-the-west-was-lost.thtml

(33) = Wall Street Journal 25 Jul 2011 ‘Inside the Mind of the Oslo Murderer’, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903999904576465801154130960.html?mod=WSJ_article_comments#articleTabs%3Darticle

(34) = CBS News 27 Mar 2011 ‘Newt Gingrich warns U.S. at risk of atheism and radical Islam’, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20048494-503544.html

(35) = CNSNews.com 26 Jul 2011 ‘Pat Buchanan: A Fire Bell in the Night for Norway’, http://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/article/pat-buchanan-fire-bell-night-norway

(36) = guardian.co.uk 26 Jul 2011 ‘Anders Behring Breivik had links to far-right EDL, says anti-racism group’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/26/anders-behring-breivik-edl-searchlight

Big parties in government adopting far right rhetoric and policies, strengthening the far right

(37) = BBC News 20 Aug 2010 ‘France sends Roma Gypsies back to Romania’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11020429

(38) = Guardian.co.uk 19 Aug 2010 ‘France pushes forward Roma deportations: 'They are trying to get rid of us all'’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/19/france-begins-roma-deportations

(39) = guardian.co.uk 30 May 2011 ‘Silvio Berlusconi faces humiliation as Milan voters support leftwing mayor’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/30/silvio-berlusconi-defeat-in-milan

(40) = Aaron Goldman (1984) ‘The Resurgence of Antisemitism in Britain during World War II’, in ‘Jewish Social Studies’, Vol. 46, No. 1 (Winter, 1984), pp. 37-50 , http://www.jstor.org/stable/4467242

Governments claiming ‘multiculturalism has failed’ has boosted the far right

(41) = BBC News 07 Feb 2011 ‘State multiculturalism has failed, says David Cameron’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12371994

(42) = BBC News 11 Feb 2011 ‘Sarkozy declares multiculturalism "a failure"’,http://www.france24.com/en/20110210-multiculturalism-failed-immigration-sarkozy-live-broadcast-tf1-france-public-questions

(43) = BBC News 17 Oct 2010 ‘Merkel says German multicultural society has failed’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11559451

(44) = British National Party 05 Feb 2011 ‘Cameron’s ‘War on Multiculturalism’ Speech – Another Milestone in the ‘Griffinisation’ of British Politics’, http://www.bnp.org.uk/news/cameron%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%98war-multiculturalism%E2%80%99-speech-%E2%80%93-another-milestone-%E2%80%98griffinisation%E2%80%99-british-politics

The far right switch targets of opportunity – from Jews to Muslims

(45) = Daily Mail 25 May 2009 ‘Family of Winston Churchill slams BNP over far-right party's attempt to hijack wartime leader's legacy’, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1187368/Family-Winston-Churchill-slams-BNP-far-right-partys-attempt-hijack-wartime-leaders-legacy.html

(46) = BBC 25 Nov 2000 ‘Panorama : Under the Skin’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/programmes/2001/bnp_special/roots/1998.stm ; Griffin told a court in 1998 that “I am well aware that the orthodox opinion is that 6 million Jews were gassed and cremated and turned into lampshades. Orthodox opinion also once held that the world is flat... I have reached the conclusion that the 'extermination' tale is a mixture of Allied wartime propaganda, extremely profitable lie, and latter witch-hysteria."

(47) = Telegraph 09 Jun 2009 ‘European elections 2009: BNP Andrew Brons profile’, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/5478006/European-elections-2009-BNP-Andrew-Brons-profile.html

(48) = Time 06 May 2008 ‘Italian Rightist Sparks Outrage’,http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1737829,00.html ; ‘Gianfranco Fini, the president of the Italian Parliament, is facing a firestorm of controversy after saying that the May 1 burning of Israeli flags in Turin by far-left protesters was "much more serious" than the savage beating of a 29-year-old that same day in Verona by a neo-Nazi gang. The victim of the beating, Nicola Tommasoli, died late Monday after several days in a coma.’

(49) = BBC News 22 Oct 2009 ‘Angry scenes face Griffin at BBC’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8321157.stm

The Real Threats to Democracy – Mass unemployment caused by neo-liberal economic and public spending policies combined with scapegoating of immigrants and religious minorities – just as in the 1930s

(50) = BBC News 23 Jun 2011 ‘Netherlands Islam Freedom: Profile of Geert Wilders’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11443211

(51) = BBC News 03 July 2001 ‘Race riot town seeks answers’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1420334.stm

(52) = Guardian 04 May 2002 ‘Gains by far right but relief for ministers’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2002/may/04/localgovelections.politics

(53) = Aneurin Bevan (1952) ‘ In Place of Fear’ Quartet Books, London, 1990, Chapter 1, note I, page 31

(54) = BBC GCSE bitesize ‘History – Hitler’s rise to power’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/history/mwh/germany/hitlerpowerrev1.shtml

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Libya : the case for arming the rebels to save lives overall and end Gaddafi's dictatorship


Given the level of propaganda coming from all sides in Libya – and the many uses of it in past “humanitarian interventions”, whether by the US government in Kosovo or Iraq or the Russian government in Chechnya and Georgia, it is impossible to know for certain what is true and what isn’t in reports from Libya (the amount of propaganda has been so huge over such a long period that I’m making a separate post on it). However while we may not be getting to see and hear everything that’s going on there, we do know that seems to be partly because Gaddafi’s forces are preventing foreign journalists and aid agencies including the International Committee of the Red Cross, from entering any areas of cities they hold, which means they probably have something to hide (1) – (3). That makes reports from protesters,  opposition groups and from Egyptian migrant workers that Gaddafi’s forces are targeting and killing civilians more credible; as well as reports from the ICRC that they have targeted paramedics and ambulance teams and that Arab journalists working for the BBC were tortured by Gaddafi’s forces (4) – (12). So instituting a no-fly zone and arming the rebels – as they have requested - may be justified. (Though even Amnesty International has sometimes been taken in by propaganda in the short term until it gets to investigate further)

Egyptian migrant workers who had escaped from Zawiya in western Libya told Human Rights Watch that Gaddafi’s forces were opening fire on anyone who left their house. The International Committee of the Red Cross also says Red Crescent ambulance paramedics and clearly marked ambulances were shot by Gaddafi’s forces as they tried to treat the wounded (13) – (14). These are war crimes like similar actions by US forces in the assault on Fallujah in April 2004, when snipers also targeted both civilians and ambulances (15) – (16).

Gaddafi’s forces preventing any foreign journalists or aid organisations entering areas they hold – and opening fire on them, taking them prisoner or torturing them or killing them if they do enter them - suggests that they want to hide the targeting of civilians,  like Sharon’s government in Israel during it’s targeting of Palestinian civilians in offensives in the West Bank ; US forces in Fallujah ; and US missile strikes on the headquarters of Al Jazeera in both Kabul and Baghdad  (17) – (21). (An alternative or additional motive could be fears that spies for the US government and others might pose as journalists – but remember that there is no free media in Libya. There are only state controlled newspapers and TV stations – with journalists who criticise Gaddafi jailed or killed.)

Gaddafi is also a dictator who we know, over decades, has jailed people without trial, “disappeared” them Pinochet style, tortured them and had them summarily executed without fair trial – as well as sending agents to murder exiled dissidents across Europe and banning independent trade unions and any media free of state control. We also know of at least two massacres committed by his forces before the recent reports. In June 1996 around 1,200 prisoners from the Abu Salim prison in Libya were killed. In July 1996 his forces killed around 50 people after there was a pitch invasion of fans shouting anti-Gaddafi slogans at a football match in Tripoli. These events have all taken place long enough ago that if they had been made up we would know by now, just as the false story about Kuwaiti babies thrown out of their incubators by Iraqi troops in 1990 was initially repeated by the Kuwaiti Red Crescent and Amnesty International in their reports, but corrected within months when Amnesty staff got to talk to doctors at the hospital involved (see my next post on this ) (22) – (27)

I distrust the motives of the US government and it’s allies, but remember that Gaddafi’s regime was happy to not only co-operate with them when it suited it, but to co-operate in “extra-ordinary rendition” with the CIA. Ibn Al Sheikh Al Libi, was said by his Libyan jailers to have “committed suicide” after Human Rights Watch volunteers talked to him. He told them that he was “Curveball”, the source used by the Bush administration on Saddam’s supposedly active WMD programmes – and that the CIA tortured him until he told them what they wanted to hear (28). So cold blooded murder to protect arms and oil deals is a part of the Gaddafi government. (Another Iraqi exile claiming to be Curveball then conveniently turned up and claimed he’d lied without having to be forced to).

Since there is already a rebellion against a dictatorship with a history of executing people without trial, disappearing them and massacring them, we should support the rebels.

We don’t know what kind of government they will institute or whether they might kill civilian supporters of Gaddafi if they win. The rebels include the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, some of whose members helped collect intelligence for Al Qa’ida for the 1998 US embassy bombings in Africa – and who attempted, with MI6 support, to assassinate Gaddafi in 1996. Hundreds have been released from jail by Gaddafi’s regime after they renounced violence – including 110 after the first day of protests, so it seems unlikely he thought they were likely to join any armed insurgency against him (29) – (30). While many of those opposed to Gaddafi are Islamic fundamentalists, most will probably not be nearly as extreme as the LIFG though and no-one knows whether the Islamic fundamentalists are a majority or not. In February 2006 there were serious riots over rumours of the publication of a Mohammed cartoon in a Danish newspaper and 11 people were killed, suggesting Islamic fundamentalism is fairly influential in Libyan society (31).

We do know for a certainty though that Gaddafi has had civilians killed though and that given his past record that he is far more likely to have anyone who has opposed him jailed or killed than forgiven – and that includes protesters, not just those who took up arms against him. The Libyan people should also get whatever system of government they want, not one imposed on them by a dictatorship, whether that system ends up being a democracy most of us would approve of or not.

We also know the fate of those who have criticised or opposed Gaddafi in the past – usually long jail sentences or summary execution or their “disappearance”. Already in Zawiyah after Gaddafi’s forces’ victory an ITV journalist reported that ‘Troops are going house to house, according to one resident, rounding up dozens of suspects. We talked to one man who said: "People are being arrested for no reason, people who stayed in their homes for the whole seven days of the fighting. You cannot imagine what is happening here."’ (32)

Similarly, while some rebels say they think they will have no problem getting arms promised to them by the governments of Qatar and others – and the US is thought to have already requested that the Saudi government airlift arms to the rebels in Libya, this would be a very risky operation while Gaddafi’s air force still controls the skies. The Obama administration most likely wants to avoid being criticised later for arming rebels against Gaddafi if it later finds itself fighting or under attack from Islamic fundamentalist groups it has armed. However the risk of using the Saudis as a proxy is that they are likely to arm some of the most hardline Islamic fundamentalist groups, just as CIA co-operation with Pakistan’s military intelligence in the 80s to arm the Mujahedin saw arms go almost entirely to the most fundamentalist groups – and later to ISI support for the Taliban’s rise to power. If western governments armed some rebel groups themselves they could maybe ensure both that Gaddafi was overthrown and that the most extreme groups among the rebels didn't form the new government (not that their record here is very good - just look at it in Haiti, Nicaragua or El Salvador) (33) – (36).

Arming the rebels involves serious risks - including the possibility of a long and bloody civil war as in Congo or Somalia, the possibility that they might committ atrocities themselves if they win (though the fact that the rebels allow doctors in hospitals in areas they control to treat the wounded of both sides is hopeful here) ; and the fact that some factions like the LIFG have been allied to Al Qa'ida in the past and could try to sieze power (37). The alternative is almost certainly many thousands executed and thousands more disappeared by Gaddafi's military and secret police though.

There are many examples of past claims used to justify going to war which turned out to be propaganda, to make us uncertain of what is true and what isn’t in Libya ; and of hypocrisies by many of the governments calling for intervention and potential problems (covered in my next post), but if we wait until we have complete and definite information, by that time Gaddafi’s forces may well have wiped out the rebels and “disappeared” anyone who supported them or is suspected of supporting them. Most decisions must be taken without the full and certain facts. (That doesn’t mean we have to adopt what American journalist Ron Suskind called Cheney’s “one per cent doctrine” that we treat a 1% chance of something happening as a 100% chance – that would be treating a 99% chance that something is not happening as a 100% chance that it is (38))

CORRECTIONS AND UPDATES 14th March :

I've not found any report saying the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group are involved in the current fighting. There are claims from Gaddafi's government that various "Islamic Emirates" groups are involved like the Islamic Emirate of Barqa  (39)

Al Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghrib has said it supports the rebels (though whether it's provided any support beyond words is not known) (40)

There are also some reports that Gaddafi has offered rebel fighters who surrender and hand over their weapons an amnesty (41)


(1) = Channel 4 News 08 Mar 2011 ‘Libya Unrest : Zawiyah’, http://www.channel4.com/news/libya-intense-fighting-as-gaddafis-forces-use-air-strikes (3rd video on page – journalists refused access to areas where fighting between rebels and Gaddafi’s forces continues)

(2) = Channel 4 News 09 Mar 2011 ‘Gaddafi ramps up military action against rebels’, http://www.channel4.com/news/last-rebel-held-city-in-west-set-to-fall-to-gaddafi-troops ; See from 4 minutes 31 seconds to 4 minutes 45 seconds on journalists being turned away from Zawiya by Gaddafi’s forces ; See from 5 minutes 0 seconds to 5 minutes 30 seconds on reports of Gaddafi’s snipers shooting anyone who moves

(3) = ICRC 10 Mar 2011 ‘Libya: urgent to apply the rules of war’,http://www.icrc.org/eng/resources/documents/news-release/2011/libya-news-2011-03-10.htm ;The ICRC president expressed disappointment over the organization still not having access even to those areas where the clashes have been heaviest. "It's unacceptable that, 24 days after the fighting started, a major part of the country remains effectively cut off from humanitarian aid," he said. "Our greatest challenge right now is to reach the areas hardest hit by the fighting in order to help treat the war-wounded and follow up on people who have gone missing, as we've been doing in the east of the country since we arrived on 27 February."

(4) = Human Rights Watch 26 Feb 2011 ‘Libya: Security Forces Fire on Protesters in Western City’,http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2011/02/26/libya-security-forces-fire-protesters-western-city (includes eye-witness accounts by Egyptian migrant workers)

(5) = Amnesty International 04 Mar 2011 ‘Libyan paramedics targeted by pro-Gaddafi forces’,http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/libyan-paramedics-targeted-pro-gaddafi-forces-2011-03-04

(6) = Channel 4 News 09 Mar 2011 ‘Gaddafi ramps up military action against rebels’, http://www.channel4.com/news/last-rebel-held-city-in-west-set-to-fall-to-gaddafi-troops ; See from 4 minutes 31 seconds to 4 minutes 45 seconds on journalists being turned away from Zawiya by Gaddafi’s forces ; See from 5 minutes 0 seconds to 5 minutes 30 seconds on reports of Gaddafi’s snipers shooting anyone who moves

(7) = Sydney Morning Herald 07 Mar 2011 ‘How the West can end Gaddafi's slaughter’, by Geoffrey Robertson,http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/how-the-west-can-end-gaddafis-slaughter-20110306-1bjgs.html

(8) = Amnesty International 20 Feb 2011 ‘Libyan leader must end spiralling killings’,http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/libyan-leader-must-end-spiralling-killings-2011-02-20

(9) = Al Jazeera 22 Feb 2011 ‘Fresh violence rages in Libya’, http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/201122261251456133.html

(10) = Reuters 22 Feb 2011 ‘Gaddafi defiant in face of mounting revolt’,http://www.polity.org.za/article/gaddafi-defiant-in-face-of-mounting-revolt-2011-02-22

(11) = AP 17 Feb 2011 ‘20 reported killed in Libya 'day of rage'’, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41638452/ns/world_news-mideast/n_africa/

(12) = Guardian.co.uk 08 Mar 2011 ‘Assault on Zawiyah - live updates’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/08/arab-and-middle-east-protests-libya#block-1 ; Sky News, whose correspondent Alex Crawford and her crew were trapped in Zawiyah over the weekend, said it witnessed Gaddafi forces firing on unarmed civilians and ambulances. These accounts were corroborated from Tripoli by the Guardian's Peter Beaumont, who reports: "Residents described a hail of bullets with women and children being killed and families trapped within their homes by the ferocity of the fighting."

(13) = Human Rights Watch 26 Feb 2011 ‘Libya: Security Forces Fire on Protesters in Western City’,http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2011/02/26/libya-security-forces-fire-protesters-western-city (includes eye-witness accounts by Egyptian migrant workers)

(14) = Amnesty International 04 Mar 2011 ‘Libyan paramedics targeted by pro-Gaddafi forces’,http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/libyan-paramedics-targeted-pro-gaddafi-forces-2011-03-04

(15) = Guardian 17 Apr 2004 ‘'Getting aid past US snipers is impossible'’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/apr/17/iraq

(16) = BBC News 23 Apr 2004 ‘Picture emerges of Falluja siege’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3653223.stm

(17) = guardian.co.uk 09 Mar 2011 ‘BBC staff 'arrested and tortured in Libya by Gaddafi forces'’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/09/bbc-staff-arrest-torture-libya

(18) = guardian.co.uk 10 Mar 2011 ‘Guardian journalist Ghaith Abdul-Ahad in custody, Libya officials confirm’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/10/guardian-journalist-ahad-custody-libya

(19) = Al Jazeera 12 Mar 2011 ‘Al Jazeera staffer killed in Libya’,http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/03/2011312192359523376.html

(20) = Amnesty International 2002 ‘Israel and the Occupied Territories - Shielded from scrutiny: IDF violations in Jenin and Nablus’, http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/MDE15/143/2002/en/dom-MDE151432002en.html ; (for more on this see this post )

(21) = Guardian Media 23 Nov 2005 2p.m update ‘Bush claim revives al-Jazeera bombing fears’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2005/nov/23/pressandpublishing.iraq , ‘The Baghdad bombing of 2003 was the second attack by American forces on the offices of al-Jazeera. In 2001 the station's Kabul office was hit by two "smart" bombs in an attack that almost wrecked the nearby BBC bureau. Al-Jazeera said it had given the location of its offices in both Kabul and Baghdad to the authorities in Washington, but it had still been attacked.

(22) = Geoff Simons (2003) ‘Libya and the West’ Center for Libyan Studies, Oxford, UK, 2003, Chapter 6 , especially pages 103 -115 (also cites summary executions of Libyans stopped at road blocks etc)

(23) = Ronald Bruce St. John (2008 ) ‘Libya – From Colony to Independence’ , Oneworld books, Oxford, UK, 2008, pages 165-171, 256-257 of paperback edition; on football match shootings see page 223

(24) = Geoff Simons (1996) ‘Libya – The Struggle for Survival’ 2nd edition, paperback edition, MacMillan, London, 1996

(25) = Human Rights Watch World Report 2011 – Libya,http://www.hrw.org/en/world-report-2011/libya ; There are still dozens of unresolved disappearance cases in Libya, including those of Libyan opposition members Jaballa Hamed Matar and Izzat al-Megaryef, whom Egyptian security arrested in 1990 in Cairo. Their families later learned that Egypt had handed them over to Libyan security officials, who detained them in Abu Salim prison. Prominent Lebanese Shia cleric Imam Musa al-Sadr disappeared in Libya 32 years ago; his fate remains unknown.

(26) = Amnesty International 2010 World Report – Libya,http://report2010.amnesty.org/sites/default/files/AIR2010_AZ_EN.pdf#page=156; Hundreds of cases of enforced disappearances and other human rights violations committed in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s remain unresolved, and the Internal Security Agency, implicated in those violations, continued to operate with impunity.

(27) = Human Rights Watch 28 Jun 2006 ‘Libya: June 1996 Killings at Abu Salim Prison’,http://www.hrw.org/en/reports/2006/06/28/libya-june-1996-killings-abu-salim-prison

(28) = HRW 11 May 2009 ‘Libya/US: Investigate Death of Former CIA Prisoner’, http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2009/05/11/libyaus-investigate-death-former-cia-prisoner

(29) = Mark Curtis (2010) ‘Secret Affairs – Britain’s collusion with Radical Islam’,Serpent’s tail books, London, 2010, chapter 13, pages 225-231 of paperback edition

(30) = Al Jazeera 16 Feb 2011 ‘Libyan police stations torched’, http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/20112167051422444.html ; ‘Meanwhile, a local human rights activist told Reuters news agency that the authorities have decided to release 110 prisoners jailed for membership of banned organisation, the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group.The prisoners to be freed on Wednesday, are the last members of the group still being held and will be set free from Tripoli's Abu Salim jail, Mohamed Ternish, chairman of the Libya Human Rights Association said.Hundreds of alleged members of the group have been freed from jail after it renounced violence last year.’

(31) = Ronald Bruce St. John (2008 ) ‘Libya – From Colony to Independence’ , Oneworld books, Oxford, UK, 2008, page 257 of paperback edition

 (32) = Guardian.co.uk 10 Mar 2011 ‘Zawiya town centre devastated and almost deserted’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/10/zawiya-town-itv-regime-battle ; They are sweeping through Zawiya, rounding up young men they suspect might have been involved in the rebellion…Troops are going house to house, according to one resident, rounding up dozens of suspects. We talked to one man who said: "People are being arrested for no reason, people who stayed in their homes for the whole seven days of the fighting. You cannot imagine what is happening here."… We left the square to go to the hospital where doctors had told me on Sunday they believed Gaddafi was guilty of war crimes, including killing doctors. I hoped to talk to them. At the gate where we had been stopped by soldiers I saw one of the doctors. He made a sign with his hand warning me not to acknowledge him. He was clearly scared. He knows he treated rebels. He also treated government soldiers.

(33) = guardian.co.uk 09 Mar 2011 ‘Libya's war intensifies but Nato shows no sign of intervening’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/09/libya-gaddafi-ras-lanuf-zawiya

(34) = The Independent 07 Mar 2011 ‘America's secret plan to arm Libya's rebels’,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/americas-secret-plan-to-arm-libyas-rebels-2234227.html

(35) = Coll, Steve (2004) , 'Ghost Wars : The secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan and Bin Laden' , Penguin , London, 2004,  Prologue, page 12 of paperback edition

(36) = Ahmed Rashid (2001) ‘Taliban’, Tauris books, London ,2001 – especially p132 of paperback edition

(37) = Sky News 08 Mar 2011 ‘Special Report: Rebel-Held Town Under Siege’,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Libya-Sky-News-Witnesses-Zawiyah-Rebels-Battle-Gaddafi-Soldiers-In-Bloody-Fight-For-Control-Of-City/Article/201103215948211?lpos=World_News_Top_Stories_Header_1&lid=ARTICLE_15948211_Libya%3A_Sky_News_Witnesses_Zawiyah_Rebels_Battle_Gaddafi_Soldiers_In_Bloody_Fight_For_Control_Of_City (see videos)

(38) = Ron Suskind (2006) ‘The One Percent doctrine’, Simon & Schuster, London, 2007

(39) = AFP/ Sydney Morning Herald 21 Feb 2011 ‘Libyan Islamists seize arms, take hostages’,http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/libyan-islamists-seize-arms-take-hostages-20110221-1b19c.html

(40) = CNN 24 Feb 2011 ‘Al Qaeda's North African wing says it backs Libya uprising’,http://articles.cnn.com/2011-02-24/world/libya.qaeda.statement_1_libyan-islamic-fighting-group-islamic-maghreb-al-qaeda?_s=PM:WORLD

(41) = guardian.co.uk 02 Mar 2011 ‘Muammar Gaddafi offers rebels an amnesty’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/02/muammar-gaddafi-offers-rebels-amnesty

Wednesday, September 08, 2010

Are Iraqis better off as a result of the 2003 invasion and overthrow of Saddam?

This is the third of three posts on Tony Blair’s version of what happened in Iraq from the 1980s to the present – and what really happened; and on whether war on Iraq or Iran could be justified or necessary (the first two are here and here). This post looks at whether Iraqis have been better off since the 2003 invasion than they were under Saddam ; what Iraqis have said about it themselves in opinion polls; and what conclusions might be drawn.

Picture - Iraqi refugees. Many have been deported back to Iraq from the US and UK, whose governments claim Iraq is now a safe destination.

Using WMDs on Iraqis,
 supposedly to stop Saddam doing it – 15 years after he’d stopped

Bush and Blair and their supporters on Iraq claim they had to invade to save Iraqis from Saddam using WMDs on them. Yet Coalition forces then used WMDs on Iraqis, just as they had with napalm and Depleted Uranium shells and bombs in the 1991 war and in enforcing the ‘No Fly Zones’ from 1991 till 2003 (1) – (4). This, the fact that they provided Saddam with money, chemicals and hardware to produce and deliver chemical weapons before and after the gassing of the Kurds at Halabja ; and the fact that Saddam’s use of chemical weapons ended in 1988 with the end of the Iran-Iraq war, make it an empty claim.

It’s a constant refrain of the US and British governments in their foreign policy and wars that their enemies are responsible for everything; and that anything they did was to prevent the crimes of their enemies. In fact they are responsible for their own actions, which include using cluster munitions (effectively land mines deployed from planes or by artillery) and WMD such as Depleted Uranium shells and bombs and White Phosphorus in cities including Fallujah – along with new versions of napalm (5) – (8).  The results have been massively increased rates of cancers and birth defects among Iraqi babies and children from 1991 on (9) – (10). Since the April and 2004 Coalition assaults on the city of Fallujah it has the highest rates of all among babies and infants (11).

Many Iraqi, American and British doctors studying Iraqi children and British and American veterans of the 1991 Gulf War and the Bosnian and Kosovo wars also believe their illnesses are caused by exposure to residue from DU munitions used in these wars – and among some units the rate of cancers and birth defects among their children has been extremely high (12) – (15).

Killing and torturing Iraqis - supposedly to save them from Saddam doing it

Ending rape, torture and murder by death squads and secret police is also supposed to be a benefit of the US led invasion. Except they continued under Coalition forces and still continue under the new Iraqi government.

Actions of the US and British governments in Iraq which Iraq war supporters like to ignore also include approving and encouraging systematic torture , which, including beatings over nights and days, working in shifts , breaking arms and legs with baseball bats ; asphyxiation and electric shocks (that’s according to American and British Iraq veterans as well as Iraqis) (16) – (27), ordering the targeting of both ambulances and civilians in the assaults on Fallujah (according to American aid workers and Iraqis in Fallujah at the time) (28) – (29); and giving orders to force teenage looters into tidal canals to drown. All of this was afterwards covered up by military courts martial pretending either that nothing happened or else it was a few troops out of control, to avoid trials that might ask how high the orders had originated (30) – (31). Courts martial, unlike civilian courts, do not have any minimum legal standards and allow witnesses and evidence to be ignored.

Amnesty International’s annual report for 2010, like UN inquiries in earlier years, found Iraqi police rape women and employ the same torture methods used by Saddam (32) – (33).

Amnesty found that ‘Iraqi security forces committed gross human rights violations including extrajudicial executions, torture...and did so largely with impunity....Torture methods reported included beatings with cables and hosepipes, suspension by the limbs for long periods...electric shocks to the genitals...breaking of limbs, removal of toenails with pliers and piercing the body with drills. Some detainees were alleged to have been raped.’

And that

‘‘In May inmates of the womens’ prison in al Kadhimiya told members of the parliament’s human rights committee that they had been raped while held in prison or detained elsewhere’ (34)

 Iraqi US trained “police commando” death squads and other new elite US trained ‘counter-terrorist’ units torture and kill suspects at a whim, having been trained by officers like Colonel James Steele who trained the notorious US backed death squads of El Salvador in the 1980s, who, like Iraqi security forces today, targeted anyone critical of the US or it’s favoured government, including American nuns , not just armed enemies or terrorists (35) – (39). (for more on the ‘El Salvador Option’ from El Salvador to Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan  see this post)

US Sanctions killed more Iraqis than Saddam after 1991,
Since Invasion food situation worse than under Saddam and sanctions

Keith Gilmour commendably mentions the sanctions on Iraq demanded by the US which were estimated by UN officials charged with enforcing them to have caused the deaths of around 5,000 to 6,000 children per month from 1991 to March 2003 (40). British and American government spokespeople will generally claim Saddam was to blame for these sanctions. Saddam was guilty of many terrible crimes, but the extreme sanctions imposed on Iraq at the demand of the US government weren’t one of them.

Many supporters of the Iraq war argue that the war was necessary to end deaths from sanctions without allowing Saddam to develop new WMD threats. Apart from the fact that Saddam had already proven he wasn’t willing to use WMDs on other countries (see conclusion) and hadn’t risked using them on his people since he lost the backing of the US after 1991, the invasion did not improve the situation once the sanctions were lifted, because the Coalition administration and the new Iraqi governments are so corrupt.

More Iraqis face hunger now even than under sanctions and Saddam. New Iraqi governments have cut food rations repeatedly (and again this year ), to a level around a quarter of that before the invasion,  reducing many Iraqis to scavenging in bins for food. This is despite the new governments having a larger budget than Saddam’s regime (41) – (49). Around $8 billion dollars that could have provided food and medicines went missing from Iraqi UN oil fund money appropriated by Bush’s ‘governor’ Paul Bremer (50) – (54).

What do Iraqis say?

It’s common for both sides in the Iraq war debate to point to the answers to some questions in some opinion polls as evidence that Iraqis did or didn’t support the invasion or do or don’t think they’re better off as a result of Saddam being overthrown. While the majority of polls seem to show a majority of Iraqis saying they backed the invasion and are better off as a result of the invasion, there is as much debate between Iraqis about these questions as there is in the US or the UK. Iraqis’. answers to different questions in the same poll are often contradictory, seeming to provide a majority in favour when a question is phrased one way; but when the same question is asked differently, providing a majority against.

It’s also worth considering the fact that Iraqis have grown up in a situation where answering a question about politics in a way that the current government disliked could end up in torture, jail or death for them and their entire families – and continue to live in such a situation today. This cuts both ways though as they may fear not only the coalition or the new government but their enemies too.

Overall though, from what poll results we do have, the majority of Iraqis do seem to think they’re better off without Saddam and to have considered having Coalition troops there as being less bad than not having them there (though a majority have negative views of coalition forces and governments and the new Iraqi governments). Their responses also suggest they do not approve of many the actions of the new Iraqi government or the Coalition – just that they consider the alternatives even worse (55) – (56).

For instance in a poll in 2007 63% of Iraqis said the invasion of Iraq was wrong, 58% said they had no confidence in US or UK occupation forces, with another 27% saying they had ‘not very much’ confidence in them; and 80% thought Coalition forces had done a ‘very bad’ job or ‘quite a bad’ job; while 79% said they opposed the presence of Coalition forces in Iraq; and 70% said Coalition forces had made security worse. However at the same time 63% did not want Coalition forces to leave Iraq; and 51% said attacks on Coalition forces were unacceptable (57).

During 2010 one poll showed more Iraqis now approved of their own government’s performance than of the US government’s performance (though only a minority approved of either) (58). Yet another poll in 2010 showed a majority thought US troops should not leave Iraq yet (59).

Polls are also a matter of perception and perception is shaped by propaganda by governments and their enemies and by what the media focus on and how they frame issues – as is shown by the fact that poll results in Iraq and elsewhere change massively on the same questions in just a few months. People who are very religious for instance may also consider freedom of religion as important as food supply or safety from torture or death. Even people who aren’t religious may consider the right to vote in elections in which different parties and candidates are allowed to be something they value, even if they’re worse off in other ways.

Conclusion – Murder, Torture, Rape and Theft
are the same whether you call them democracy or not

None of this can make torturing people or murdering them, or corruption reducing their food rations, justifiable on the grounds that they are now carried out by an elected government. People who are murdered or tortured in the name of “democracy”, by an elected government do not suffer less because the ideology used to attempt to justify the act sounds better on paper. Torture and murder are not democratic acts. A “democracy” which allows or orders murder, rape and torture on a large scale is a democracy in name only; and has more similarities to a dictatorship than a democracy in reality. The actions ordered by Coalition governments and the new Iraqi governments in Iraq do not differ greatly from Saddam’s when he was in power, except in exceeding the level of corruption under Saddam by several orders of magnitude and leaving more Iraqis suffering hunger and lack of medical treatment as a result.

Replacing a dictatorship is only a positive thing if you replace it with something better; and if you do so in a way that does not cause large numbers of unnecessary deaths. Neither requirement has been met in Iraq so far.

While many have claimed Saddam would still be in power if Coalition forces hadn’t invaded there is in fact no way to know whether he would have been overthrown instead – no-one expected the sudden and largely peaceful fall of the Berlin Wall and the German Communist Party or of the Soviet Union either, yet they still happened.

More than anything the facts on Iraq show we should beware of accepting the view of the majority as always (or even usually) being the reality given how quickly the views of the majority change – and how greatly propaganda can influence public opinion if it’s repeated enough times.

(1) = Bennis , Phyllis & Moushabeck  , Michael (Editors) (1992)  ‘Beyond the Storm’  ; Canongate Press , London , 1992, p326 – 355

(2) = Lee , Ian (1991) ‘Continuing Health Costs of the Gulf War’, Medical Educational Trust , London , 1991

(3) = Blum , William (1995) ‘Killing Hope’,  Common Courage Press , Monroe , Maine , 1995, pages 334-338

(4) = Pilger , John (1998) ‘Hidden Agendas’ Vintage , London , 1998, pages 49 – 52

(5) = BBC News 29 May 2003 ‘Cluster bombs 'used in Iraq cities'’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2946054.stm

(6) = Observer 14 Dec 2003 ‘Army shells pose cancer risk in Iraq’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2003/dec/14/iraq.military

(7) =  BBC News 16 Nov 2005 ‘US used white phosphorus in Iraq’,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/4440664.stm

(8) =  Independent 10 Aug 2003 ‘US admits it used napalm bombs in Iraq’,
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-admits-it-used-napalm-bombs-in-iraq-589508.html

(9) = Independent 10 Jan 2001 ‘These children had cancer. Now they are dead. I believe they were killed by depleted uranium’, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/these-children-had-cancer-now-they-are-dead-i-believe-they-were-killed-by-depleted-uranium-705543.html

(10) = BBC News 14 Apr 2000 ‘Iraq's ward of death’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/713670.stm

(11) = Guardian.co.uk 13 Nov 2009 ‘Huge rise in birth defects in Falluja’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/13/falluja-cancer-children-birth-defects

(12) = BBC News 07 Jun 1999 ‘Depleted uranium: the lingering poison’,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/362484.stm

(13) = BBC News 04 Jan 2001 ‘Q&A: Depleted uranium weapons’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/1101447.stm

(14) = BBC News 18 Jan 2001 ‘Depleted uranium: The next generation’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1122566.stm

(15) = NYT 29 Jan 2001 ‘Doctor's Gulf War Studies Link Cancer to Depleted Uranium’,
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/01/29/world/29DOCT.html?pagewanted=1

(16) = Human Rights Watch World Report 2006 - ‘Torture and Inhumane Treatment: A Deliberate U.S. Policy’ - http://hrw.org/wr2k6/introduction/2.htm#_Toc121910421

(17) = Amnesty International 1 Nov 2005 ‘TORTURE AND ILL-TREATMENT IN THE ‘WAR ON TERROR’’, http://web.amnesty.org/library/index/engact400142005

(18) = Amnesty International Annual Report 2006 - ‘Summary of Country report for Iraq’’, http://web.amnesty.org/report2006/irq-summary-eng

(19) = Washington Post Wednesday, September 28, 2005; A21,‘ A Matter of Honor’, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/27/AR2005092701527_pf.html

(20) = ABC News 18 May 2004,‘Intel Staffer Cites Abu Ghraib Cover-Up’, http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/Investigation/story?id=131658&page=1 and http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/print?id=131658

(21) = ABC News 21 May 2004, ‘Military Punishes Abu Ghraib Key Witness’, http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/Investigation/story?id=131659&page=1 and http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/print?id=131659

(22) = Scotsman 27 May 2004,'Soldier left brain damaged after playing unruly prisoner at Guantánamo', http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=602732004

(23) = Independent 14 Oct 2006 - ‘Guantanamo guards 'admitted abusing inmates' - http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article1870834.ece

(24) = ICRC Feb 2004 - ‘REPORT OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMITTEE OF THE RED CROSS (ICRC) ON THE TREATMENT BY THE COALITION FORCES OF PRISONERS OF WAR AND OTHER PROTECTED PERSONS BY THE GENEVA CONVENTIONS IN IRAQ , Chapter 1 , paragraph 7, http://cryptome.org/icrc-report.htm

(25) = Amnesty International 6 Mar 2006 - ‘Beyond Abu Ghraib: detention and torture in Iraq' - http://web.amnesty.org/library/index/engmde140012006

(26) = Amnesty International 15 Mar 2007 - ‘United Kingdom Court Martial acquittals: many questions remain unanswered and further action required to ensure justice' - http://web.amnesty.org/library/Index/ENGEUR450052007

(27) = Guardian 16 Sep 2004 - ‘UK officers linked to torture jail' - http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,5017135-103550,00.html

(28) = BBC News 23 Apr 2004 ‘Picture emerges of Falluja siege’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3653223.stm

(29) = Guardian 17 Apr 2004 ‘'Getting aid past US snipers is impossible'’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/apr/17/iraq

(30) = Guardian 03 May 2006 ‘Iraqi, 15, 'drowned after soldiers forced him into canal'’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2006/may/03/iraq.military

(31) = Guardian 07 Jun 2006 ‘Soldiers cleared of Iraqi teenager's manslaughter -Court martial absolves trio of 15-year-old's drowning’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2006/jun/07/iraq.military

(32)  = BBC News Online 21 Sep 2006 - ‘Iraq torture 'worse after Saddam' ' - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5368360.stm

(33) = Amnesty International World Report 2010 (covering 2009) – Country Report Iraq,http://report2010.amnesty.org/sites/default/files/AIR2010_AZ_EN.pdf#page=123 ;(once pdf loads, scroll down to page 125 (by PDF page number) or 178 (number marked on page)

(34) = New York Times 03 Apr 1998 '4 Salvadorans Say They Killed U.S. Nuns on Orders of Military', http://www.nytimes.com/1998/04/03/world/4-salvadorans-say-they-killed-us-nuns-on-orders-of-military.html?scp=5&sq=American+nuns+killed+Salvador&st=nyt

(35) = Joan Didion (1983)‘Salvador’ Granta Books, London, 2006, pages 15-17, 18, 38

(36) = New York Times Magazine 01 May 2005 ‘The Way of the Commandos’, http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/01/magazine/01ARMY.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

(37) = Guardian 20 May 2005 ‘British lawyers to pursue Iraqi security forces over killings’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/may/20/iraq.uk

(38) = Washington Post 11 Mar 2005 ‘Suicide Bomber Kills 47 in Mosul’ ; ‘Third Mass Grave Found; Police Official Ambushed in Baghdad’, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23448-2005Mar10.html

(39) = Shane Bauer ‘Iraq’s new death squad’ in The Nation 6th June 2009, http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090622/bauer

(40) = Guardian 29 Nov 2001 ‘The hostage nation : Former UN relief chiefs Hans von Sponeck and Denis Halliday speak out against an attack on Iraq’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,608578,00.html

(41) = UNOCHA IRIN news service 02 Apr 2006, ‘IRAQ: Food prices rise after reduction of monthly rations’, http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=26250

(42)= UNOCHA IRIN news service 9 Sep 2007, ‘IRAQ: Food rationing system failing as Ramadan approaches’,http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportID=74196  

(43) = UNOCHA IRIN news service 17 Oct 2007, ‘IRAQ: Hundreds forced to scavenge for food in garbage bins’,http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportId=74829

(44) = UNOCHA IRIN news service 4 Dec 2007, ‘IRAQ: Government to cut items from its free food handouts’, http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportID=75677

(45) = Allawi, Ali A. ‘The occupation of Iraq’ Yale UP, New Haven & London, 2007 (paperback edn)

(46) = Refugees International 04 Oct 2007, ‘Iraq: Fix the Public Distribution System to meet needs of the displaced’,  http://refugeesinternational.org/content/article/detail/9971/

(47) = IPS/ Ali al-Fadhily and Dahr Jamail 03 May 2008, ‘Corruption Eats Into Food Rations’,http://dahrjamailiraq.com/hard_news/archives/iraq/000795.php#more

(48) = UNoCHA’s IRIN news 08 Nov 2009 ‘IRAQ: Food insecurity on the rise, says official’,http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportId=86926

(49) = UNoCHA IRIN news 01 Apr 2010 ‘IRAQ: State food aid package slashed’, http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=88646

(50) = CNN 31 Jan 2005‘Audit: U.S. lost track of $9 billion in Iraq funds’, http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/01/30/iraq.audit/

(51) = Guardian 07 July 2005 ‘So, Mr Bremer, where did all the money go?’http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/jul/07/iraq.features11

(52) = ABC News 06 Feb 2007‘Waste in War: Where Did All the Iraq Reconstruction Money Go? : Congressional inquiry probes former Bush official's handling of billions ofdollars, http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=2852426&page=1

(53) = Guardian 08 Feb 2007 ‘How the US sent $12bn in cash to Iraq. And watched it vanish’http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/08/usa.iraq1

(54) = Independent 28 Jul 2010 ‘US unable to account for billions of Iraq oil money’,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-unable-to-account-for-billions-of-iraq-oil-money-2036925.html

(55) = Iraq Analysis - Opinion Polls in Iraq, http://www.iraqanalysis.org/info/55 , (provides links to various polls conducted between 2003 and 2007)

(56) = Oxford Research International Feb 2004 ‘National Survery of Iraq’ http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/15_03_04_iraqsurvey.pdf

(57) = BBC, NBC & AHK poll of Iraqis Aug 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/10_09_07_iraqpoll.pdf

(58) = Gallup 26 Aug 2010 ‘Iraqis More Approving of Own Leadership Than of U.S.’, http://www.gallup.com/poll/142670/iraqis-approving-own-leadership.aspx

(59) = AFP 24 Aug 2010 ‘Iraqis say 'wrong time' for US withdrawal: poll’,http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100824/wl_mideast_afp/iraqusmilitarypullout_20100824133725