Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Unbiased Pros and cons of EU membership - Part One : The EU, Immigration and its Effects on the UK

Immigration is one of the big issues in the EU referendum debate, with a lot of claims about how harmful or beneficial it is to the UK. Some of this is based in fact. A lot of it is not.

As someone who is (relatively) neutral on the EU referendum, though tending towards reluctantly voting Remain, and knows a little about the EU, I’m  trying to provide some facts to help people looking for some unbiased information on the pros and cons of being in the EU.

EU Freedom of Movement

The EU does have a Freedom of Movement rule, but this rule only applies to  “workers” and citizens of EU member states and their families. It does not apply to refugees or other migrants coming from outside the EU. The only exceptions would be the minority of asylum seekers who are granted not only refugee status, but full citizenship in an EU member country.

Would leaving the EU end Freedom of Movement or not?

Norway and Switzerland, who are not members of the EU, trade with the EU through their membership of the European Economic Area or EEA (basically a free trade zone without political integration of the kind most of the Leave campaign back).

However EEA membership requirements include the same Freedom of Movement rules with the EU as EU membership does.

It is possible that the UK, which is a considerably larger country and economy than Norway or Switzerland, might be able to negotiate a special deal that granted it single market access without freedom of movement, just as it negotiated opt outs from the Schengen agreement and from adopting the Euro as a currency as an EU member.

It would however be one country of 64 million people negotiating with a bloc of 27 countries with 440 million odd people, so those could be tough negotiations.

And while some remaining EU member states might want to continue access to the UK for their exporters, Germany and France would have a motive to make an example of the UK to discourage other countries from leaving the EU. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble recently ruled out allowing the UK to stay in the single market if it leaves the EU (though of course he is just one minister of one EU government) (1)

A migrant crisis in the EU?

The scale of the “migrant crisis” in the EU, and how much it affects Britain, is also greatly exaggerated by much of the media. To see the full details, see the blog post on this link. In summary though, last year (2015) the total number of people coming to the EU from outside it was under 1% of its 504 million population spread between 28 countries. Many of the people who arrive each year leave or are deported. Only a small minority of these come to Britain. The UK gets a very small share of asylum applications relative to our population compared to other EU countries (2).

Open Borders?

There is a lot of talk of “open borders”. The EU does not have open borders with non-EU countries. Until last year some EU states – those that signed up to the Schengen agreement – did have open borders with one another. This has never included the UK or Ireland, which did not sign the agreement and have always required passports to be shown and customs checks for people entering or leaving the UK.

Several countries, including Hungary, have broken the Schengen agreement last year during the “migrant crisis”, by closing their borders with other EU countries.

British citizens living or working in other EU countries under Freedom of Movement

Another factor to consider is that somewhere between 1.2 million and 2.2 million British people are living or working in other EU countries, mostly under EU Freedom of Movement rules. And some of them do claim benefits (though, like citizens of other EU states in the UK, some of these are in-work benefits). (3) – (5).

If the UK did leave the EU, and did manage to get a special deal that meant Freedom of Movement rules didn’t apply, it seems massively unlikely that remaining EU member states would continue to allow British citizens Freedom of movement in their countries.

Some lawyers argue that under the 1969 Vienna Convention anyone who had lived in another EU country before the UK left the EU would retain “acquired rights” to stay there even after the UK left the Union (6).

But other lawyers argue the opposite, saying the Vienna Convention applies only to bilateral agreements between two states, and not to relations between the EU and former EU member states (7).

Either way UK citizens who wanted to go to live, work or claim benefits in other EU countries after the UK left the UK would have no legal right to do so.

And if the UK expelled citizens of other EU countries, they would almost certainly retaliate in kind by expelling British citizens from their countries.

Citizens of other EU countries living in the UK under Freedom of Movement

Most of the estimated 3 million citizens of other EU countries living in the UK under the same rules are in work (8) – (9).

Whether they would be able to stay in the UK if the UK left the EU would depend on the same factors are for UK citizens living in other EU countries outlined above.

It would also depend on what policies the UK government decided on and what agreements it could make with the EU.

What is certain is that if no deal was struck then
most EU citizens currently in the EU would not meet the current UK government standards applied to non-EU nationals as required for a visa (10).

What percentage of immigrants to the UK are from the EU?

Roughly half. Net migration to the UK from the EU in the last quarter was 184,000. From non-EU countries it was 188,000 (click this link and scroll down to table 2). (11)

The number of people coming from EU countries has increased a bit faster than those coming from non-EU countries since 1990 though, probably due to the new member countries that have joined since then.

How does immigration from the EU benefit or harm the UK?

The big area where EU membership does have an effect on immigration in the UK is immigration from other EU member states to the UK increasing our population. Is this harmful to the economy and existing population of the UK, beneficial, neither, or a mixture though?

Does immigration increase unemployment and /or push down wages?

It’s often claimed by anti-immigration campaigners that immigration is pushing down wages and increasing unemployment in the UK, as well as overloading public services like the NHS and schools with more people than they can handle.

A London School of Economics study looking at wages, unemployment and levels of immigration in each of England’s counties between 2004 and 2012 found no connection between levels of immigration and unemployment or wages (12).

Some other studies found a small increase in unemployment caused by immigration from the EU, especially during recessions, but overall found there has not been enough research to say for certain (13).

The idea that immigration just causes unemployment and lower wages is based on missing out half the picture though. Yes immigration increases the supply of labour, but any population increase, whether due to immigration or not, also increases demand for goods and services from the same extra people, not only from the public sector but from private companies too. More people means more sales of products and services for lots of businesses, meaning more profits and more jobs.

If that was not the case then every time a country’s population increased for any reason – whether immigration or more people being born than are dying, it would immediately get poorer. The UK’s population has been increasing for centuries – and it’s been getting richer all the time.

So the overall effect on the unemployment rate and wages from any population increase should be roughly zero, all other factors being equal.

The exception of course is that some migrant workers send or take much of the money they earn working in the UK back to their home countries, which would reduce the wealth of the UK and demand for goods and services here compared to if people born here or staying here permanently had that job.

Strain on public services?

A rapid increase in population may well put strain on public services in some areas, especially as more immigrants settle or work in London and the South East, where most of the jobs are, and where they are more likely to be able to make contact with family members or friends who came before them.

Citizens of other EU countries make up about 5% of NHS staff, about the same proportion of the UK’s population who are citizens of other EU countries, but they make up 10% of NHS doctors (14) – (15).

Immigrants and the EU are easy to blame for national governments looking for someone to blame for the effects of their own policies. The NHS and schools have been under considerable strain for decades due to the “internal market” introduced under Thatcher, and the exorbitant cost of Private Finance Initiatives or PFIs brought in under Major’s Conservative government in the 1990s, expanded under both New Labour (who renamed them ‘Public Private Partnerships’ or PPPs) and then by the Conservatives again (renamed ‘PF2s’) under Cameron and Osborne.

For more on this see e.g the Migration Observatory link here  (which basically says the statistics to decide this have never been collected),  Full Fact on this link and the anti-immigration Migration Watch page on this link

Housing shortages and immigration

It’s often argued that immigration is the cause of the shortage of housing and high rents and rising house prices in the UK. How true is this though?

Most studies show 60% or more of immigrants in the UK rent privately owned properties, and that immigrants are more likely to rent houses from private landlords than people born here (16) – (17).

Studies also show that house prices actually fall in areas where immigrants live, as less people who aren’t immigrants want to live there (18).

While about 12.5% of the UK’s population were born in another country, figures from pretty much every neutral source show about the same percentage of immigrants as people born here are in social housing. So the common claim that immigrants get to “jump the queue” for social housing is false (19) – (21).

The shortage of social or council housing is largely caused by governments from Heath’s on selling off council houses at a discount price in order to get votes, without providing local councils with anything like enough money to build or buy replacements for most of them. This, along with a fall in the percentage of new houses that are publicly owned, has depleted the UK’s stock of social housing massively.

There are also over 1 million privately owned properties which no one lives in. So inequality is probably another cause (22).

The rate of population increase (mostly driven by increasing immigration in the last few decades) can’t be ignored as a factor, but it’s far from the only one – and not as high as many people believe. The net increase in population of 336,000 last year for instance was an increase of just over half of one per cent on the existing population of 64 million (23).

Population increase resulting in harm to environment and quality of life
Versus Immigration helping with our ageing population

The one area where immigration might be more harmful is that any population increase when population is already high can lead to damage to the environment and to peoples’ quality of life by more of the country becoming urbanised as more trees are cut down, more fields built over with houses, more roads are built, more cars are driven etc.

Immigration is certainly the main cause of population increase in the UK and most other developed countries, with birth rates among people born here lower than those among immigrants. The net increase in population last year was around 336,000, added to an existing population of 64 million, an increase of slightly over half of one per cent (24).

It’s also certainly true that the long term trend of immigration since the UK joined the EC and then EU has been to keep increasing, especially since the 1992 Maastricht Treaty which established Freedom of Movement within the EU, though even before we joined the EU the trend was to increase (25).

It seems likely that that trend will continue.

I would argue that the damage population increase can do to the environment and quality of life is the one area that EU membership and Freedom of Movement could be harmful overall to the UK.

But this has to be balanced against the way that immigration from the poorest countries can help the poorest people in the EU, and their families. Money sent home by migrant workers dwarfs all foreign aid combined.

This , of course, means some of the money earned by immigrants in the UK is not spent here, so does not increase demand for goods or services here.

The people who are migrant workers sending money home though, are also the ones who go home after earning some money, so those people don’t increase the UK’s population in the long term.

Plus the UK, like all developed countries has problems caused by an increasing average age. The proportion of pensioners, who require both pensions and more health care, is rising. The proportion of people of working age is falling. If we reduce the number of immigrants the proportion of pensioners may increase faster as the average age of immigrants and refugees is lower, most of them being of working age (26) – (27).


There are other possible ways to counteract this – for instance in France the 35-hour week and benefit incentives for having two or more children have given it a higher than average birth rate of 2 per woman (28).

But then population increase of any kind – whether due to people born here having children, or due to immigration, is just as harmful to the environment and quality of life.

So there are benefits and costs to either increasing or reducing population, though at some point we have to face up to the need to reduce the entire world’s population and the amount of pollution created per person.

The Real Scandal?

The biggest scandal (in my opinion) surrounding people coming from outside the EU to all countries in the EU is that the EU and its member governments (including the UK) are sending so many refugees back to countries which are clearly not safe, like Turkey, which has been sending Syrian refugees back to the civil war in Syria for years and is not really even a democracy any more (the President has stripped opposition MPs of their immunity from prosecution in preparation for jailing some of them). On top of that the Turkish government has restarted a civil war inside Turkey with its own Kurdish minority, and the UN has had to cut off food aid to many refugees in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan as governments in the EU and other wealthy countries haven’t donated enough money to fund it.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Thatcher’s Falklands War got hundreds killed due either to incompetence or cynical manipulation – Callaghan avoided a war in identical circumstances 5 years earlier by sending a small fleet to the South Atlantic

The attempt to present Margaret Thatcher as a great war leader based on the Falklands War, with 800 members of the military to be present at her funeral, is bizarre once you know the historical facts.

When the Argentinians began talking of taking the Falklands in 1977, Labour Prime Minister Jim Callaghan and Foreign Secretary David Owen were persuaded by military chiefs to send a Royal Navy fleet to the South Atlantic to signal Britain would fight any invasion. In a similar situation in 1982 Thatcher’s government withdrew the last Royal Navy ship – the HMS Endurance - from the area during spending cuts, leading the Argentine military junta to believe Britain would not fight for the islands (1) – (2). They invaded – and then Thatcher declared war. Hundreds died as a result.

Some suggest that Thatcher, then the most unpopular Prime Minister in British history to that point, after increasing unemployment by over 50% to over 3 million after promising to reduce it during the 1979 election campaign, wanted a war to restore her popularity (3).

It’s impossible to know whether the decision to recall HMS Endurance was the result of blind ideology in imposing spending cuts and incompetence in not caring where they were made;  or whether Thatcher wanted the Argentinians to believe Britain wouldn’t fight in order to get a war to restore her political fortunes. If the latter she was betraying members of the British armed forces just as much as Blair with Iraq. Either way she was responsible for an easily avoidable war and all the deaths in it. By any rational standard she should be condemned for not preventing war as simply and easily as Callaghan did rather than lauded for winning a war against an inferior military that could have been avoided.

In the case of the 1990-1991 Gulf War against Iraq, which Thatcher committed British troops to shortly before her party got her to resign over the poll tax, there is no such doubt. The Bush (senior) administration and the Kuwaiti monarchy duped Saddam into war with the US over Kuwait. Bush and his advisers sought to repeat Thatcher’s feat of going from unpopularity on domestic unemployment and recession to election victory on a tide of war fuelled nationalism ; they failed.

(1) = BBC News 01 Jun 2005 ‘Secret Falklands fleet revealed’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4597581.stm

(2) = Freedman, Lawrence (2005) ‘Official History of the Falklands Campaign Volume 1’, Routledge, 2005, chapters 8 – 9

(3) = Lenman, B. P. (1992) The Eclipse of Parliament: Appearance and Reality in British Politics since 1914 (London: Edward Arnold)

Friday, December 09, 2011

If you’re blaming public sector employees, the unemployed or immigrants, you’re being divided and conquered by the real culprits

While the majority of people in employment in the UK have had pay rises below inflation,  effective cuts of an average of 4.5% ; the average city (i.e London financial sector) employee has seen their pay increase by 12% in the last six months, while managing directors have had a 21% increase (1) – (2). That’s equivalent to 19% and 37% rises in a year, after inflation. So the real division on pay and conditions is not public vs private sector, but ‘the city’ and top bank executives versus everyone else.

The endless rhetoric about supposedly ‘privileged’ public sector workers and unemployed ‘scroungers’ (while there are at least 6 people unemployed for every job vacancy) is just crude divide and conquer tactics.

The average London financial sector employee will get paid £83,000 plus a £20,000 bonus – or £103,000, compared to a median wage of £26,000 for the UK as a whole (3) – (4).

Around 710,000 public sector workers have either lost their job or are about to lose it, along with many people in the private sector  who’ve lost their jobs due to the knock on effects of a fall in consumer demand caused by the reduced income of the now unemployed public sector workers, or because banks have refused their business routine bridging loans.

It’s not so good either, if you are on a low income and live in socially rented housing, with the government having capped housing benefit and allowed rents in the social sector to rise to 80% of private sector rates, which are also rising as less people can afford to buy their own house, resulting in more renting (5) – (7). In fact many people who relied on social housing are being made homeless – and in the case of the others taxpayers are being forced to pay more to support them by the lifting of the cap on how much landlords in the ‘social’ sector can charge.

So the Coalition’s policies are good for a small minority – mostly in the markets or the city, advertising, public relations and media ownership, at the expense of the vast majority. It talks about the need to ‘protect’ the city and ‘maintain market confidence’, rewarding the people who caused the crisis, while punishing people who do jobs that benefit other people (8).

That’s why it’s been vital for the political success of the Conservative party (and their allies in the ‘city’ or ‘markets’ and banks) that the majority who are suffering should be divided from one another to eliminate the risk of the majority uniting against the small minority in whose interests the Conservatives are acting.

The unemployed as ‘scroungers’ – even though there aren’t nearly enough jobs for all of them

Decades of propaganda from tabloids owned by billionaires and from a Conservative party (and sometimes a New Labour party) largely funded by billionaires and multi-millionaires has been devoted to creating scapegoats – targets to divert blame away from the people who have the actual power and wealth.

One target has been the unemployed – supposedly all parasites who don’t want to work, despite the fact that the figures show there have never been enough jobs for all the unemployed during economic booms never mind during the worst recession since the 1930s.

The Office for National Statistics figures for July to October 2011 show that there were 462,000 job vacancies,  compared to 2.62 million people unemployed – around 6 people unemployed for every job  (and due to many methods of fiddling the figures developed by governments over the years, that is almost certainly an underestimate of the number of people unemployed) (9) – (10).

It’s undoubtedly true that a minority don’t want to work. If there are no jobs available for them even if they did want to, that’s pretty academic though.

The Daily Mail was outraged that Chancellor George Osborne increased benefits in line with inflation – by 5.2%, talking about this as a ‘big rise’ – it’s not. It only stops them being reduced by inflation – in practice they stay at the same level – about £60 a week – rather than being cut.

The propaganda seems to work as intended though, dividing the employed from the unemployed and even getting some of each to vote entirely against their own interests in and in the interests of billionaires and big multinational companies, on the assumption that any ‘benefit reforms’ will target only the undeserving, lazy unemployed and not them.

Which is more of a parasite? Someone on unemployment benefit getting £60 a week? Or a large company, a primary PFI contractor, which gets taxpayers to pay it dozens of times the amount they would pay in interest on a loan to fund construction of a new hospital or school? There’s no doubt the latter get a lot more public money for nothing.

Immigrants and the EU

Then there are immigrants – who don’t get any benefits unless granted refugee status – and then get benefits well below those given to British citizens. They, like the EU, are foreign – and so an easy target to deflect blame on to. The city traders who helped cause the crisis are British; and so supposedly on our side, even after causing the entire problem and being grossly over-paid for jobs many of which harm the majority of people.


Public sector Vs Private Sector

Finally there are the supposedly ‘cushy’ jobs held by public sector workers with ‘gold plated’ pensions. Osborne talks about public sector workers being ‘paid for’ by workers in the private sector, as if public sector workers aren’t doing vital jobs looking after NHS patients, saving people from fires, arresting criminals, teaching children; and as if public sector workers don’t pay tax at the same rate as private sector employees.

While Cameron and Osborne sack hundreds of thousands of these people to keep ‘the markets; who caused the crisis happy, Cameron has pledged to protect ‘the city’ against any EU actions that might reduce their profits.

There are some private sector workers who do vital jobs – there are a lot who fit the description ‘parasite’ very well though – the hedge fund managers trading in food futures traders in  ‘the city’ who effectively spend their time betting that the price of food will rise, then buying up food to ensure it does, causing starvation for many of the poorest people in the world and hunger even for some of the poorest here.

What I don’t understand is how so many people are so easily conned over and over again? How long will they continue to fall for such obvious divide and conquer tactics and be diverted into pointless arguments between the middle class and the working class, between the employed and the unemployed, between public sector workers and private sector workers?

(New Labour government ministers who were on a pay of over £100,000 a year and many of them – including Tony Blair – formerly lawyers – also played the ‘middle class’ vs ‘working class’ divide and conquer card, pretending that lawyers turned MPs and government ministers were working class heroes.)

The vast majority of people working in the public and private sectors, even up to the managers of small and medium sized businesses, are doing work that does benefit society as a whole and are paid a fraction of what the bank and hedge fund managers get.

Yet while bank managers and the heads of the biggest firms are paying themselves between millions and tens of millions a year, plus the same again in bonuses, often at taxpayers’ expense in bailed out banks, the Conservatives’ tactics of divide and rule ensure many peoples’ anger is directed not at the real parasites, but at other people who are also their victims.


 (1) = Astbury Marsden Compensation Survey 2011 – Banking Infrastructure London,http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:tN8-iJkGpa8J:www.astburymarsden.com/documents/Astbury%2520Marsden%2520Compensation%2520Survey%25202011_Banking%2520Infrastructure%2520London%2520small.pdf+Astbury+Marsden+report+city+pay&hl=en&gl=uk&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESjCp35WxasQC0uKU6hyPufcF3PKQgqywr0k1qNAEGK_4wMSeFBhohPhKrGo7oTiY4RLukF4E51KGYTxH6kmRfhX-1zs80hIKdv6Ckao6ZzZxFrjD6HI5anmt52lZR3QiNTc0ttx&sig=AHIEtbS9vlPCGJzgvi4HFde7s45wAlnw_w

(2) = guardian.co.uk 23 Nov 2011 ‘UK incomes fall 3.5% in real terms, ONS reveals’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/nov/23/uk-household-earnings-fall?commentpage=last#end-of-comments(including people in part-time jobs, fall is 4.5% including inflation – a 0.5% rise minus 4.5% inflation)

(3) = Guardian 28 Nov 2011 ‘Banks under fresh pressure to curb bonus and dividend payouts’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/28/banks-curb-bonuses-dividends

(4) = Office for National Statistics ‘2011 Annual Survey of Hours and Earning -Median full-time gross annual earnings’, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/ashe/annual-survey-of-hours-and-earnings/ashe-results-2011/ashe-statistical-bulletin-2011.html#tab-Annual-earnings

(5) = BBC News 27 Oct 2010 ‘No change to housing benefit plan – Cameron’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11633163

(6) = guardian.co.uk 22 Nov 2011 ‘Housing strategy prices people out of homes’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/nov/22/housing-strategy-prices-people-homes

(7) = guardian.co.uk 16 Sep 2011 ‘UK rents rise by record amount in August’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/sep/16/rents-rise-record-amount-august

(8) = Guardian 07 Dec 2011 ‘David Cameron threatens veto if EU treaty fails to protect City of London’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/07/cameron-threatens-veto-eu-treaty

(9) =  Office for National Statistics ‘Labour Market Statistics, November 2011’, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/november-2011/index.html

(10) = Labour market statistics: 16 Nov 2011 – Vacancies - http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/november-2011/statistical-bulletin.html#tab-Vacancies

Thursday, October 13, 2011

The Iranian government did not plot a terrorist bombing in the US that would have ensured their own overthrow by US forces

The supposed Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador along with 150 Americans by a terrorist bombing of a restaurant on US soil is ludicrously paper thin war propaganda (1) – (2).

Why would senior members of the Iranian government or military plot an attack which, if it succeeded, would ensure their overthrow by the US military after September 11th style anger in the US ; and likely lead to many Ayatollahs and Revolutionary Guard officers being either killed or jailed? (3).

The US, Israeli and Saudi governments by contrast have everything to gain from making this scenario up ; control  of the second largest oil reserves in the world ;  eliminating a rival for influence in the Middle East; and a distraction from domestic economic problems.

Obama’s poll rating fell to 41% a few months ago and hasn’t moved since due to the stalled US economy and high unemployment, which he can’t do much about it as long as the Republicans control congress (4). There’s a Presidential election next year. President Bush senior in 1990, faced with similar problems, made war on Iraq to try to restore his poll ratings. He still lost the next election.

The US charges call plastic explosives “weapons of mass destruction”, a propaganda phrase also used to whip up support for war on Iraq, despite the fact that it has previously referred solely to nuclear, chemical or biological weapons (5).

The US going to the UN for a resolution against Iran as a fig leaf for having tried diplomacy is also de ja vu all over again (6).

The whole thing reeks of Iraq war style propaganda and similar US government made conspiracy theories like the mythical alliance between Saddam and Al Qa’ida.

If the plot existed at all it was likely the idea of FBI agents, who have started to make a habit of posing as Al Qa’ida operatives and offering poor and unemployed Americans vast amounts of money to carry out terrorist attacks, then arresting them and having them jailed when they do. There’s a word for that – it’s called entrapment and as one American woman said they haven’t identified a terrorist cell in these cases they’ve created one just to boost their own careers (7).


(1) = Independent 12 Oct 2011 ‘US accuses Iran of bomb plot to kill Saudi ambassador in Washington’, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-accuses-iran-of-bomb-plot-to-kill-saudi-ambassador-in-washington-2369220.html

(2) = Bloomberg 12 Oct 2011 ‘U.S. Accuses Iran of Sponsoring Plot to Kill Saudi Official’,http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-12/u-s-accuses-iran-of-sponsoring-plot-to-kill-saudi-official.html ; ‘When the informant expressed concern that 100 to 150 people could be injured in a bombing of the restaurant, including “senators who dine there,” Arbabsiar said “no big deal,” the U.S. said in the complaint.’

(3) = Bloomberg 12 Oct 2011 ‘U.S. Accuses Iran of Sponsoring Plot to Kill Saudi Official’,http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-12/u-s-accuses-iran-of-sponsoring-plot-to-kill-saudi-official.html ; ‘The alleged plot was “directed and approved by elements of the Iranian government,” U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said yesterday. “High-up officials in those agencies, which is an integral part of the Iranian government, were responsible.”’

(4) = Gallup 07 Oct 2011 ‘Obama's September Approval Rating Remains at Term-Low 41%’,http://www.gallup.com/poll/149966/obama-september-approval-rating-remains-term-low.aspx

(5) = Bloomberg 12 Oct 2011 ‘U.S. Accuses Iran of Sponsoring Plot to Kill Saudi Official’,http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-12/u-s-accuses-iran-of-sponsoring-plot-to-kill-saudi-official.html ; ‘Manssor Arbabsiar, 56, and Gholam Shakuri were charged with conspiracy to use a weapon of mass destruction, in this case C-4 plastic explosives, to murder Ambassador Adel Al-Jubeir and attack Saudi installations in the U.S. in a plan hatched earlier this year. Targets included “foreign government facilities associated with Saudi Arabia and with another country,” the U.S. said in a complaint filed in Manhattan federal court.

The plotters, one of whom is in U.S. custody, also targeted Israel’s embassy in Washington, as well as the embassies of Israel and Saudi Arabia in Argentina, according to a federal law enforcement official familiar with the matter.

(6) = AFP 12 Oct 2011 ‘US seeks Security Council support for Iran action’, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gR7JgD6nBBVFODzZfeiH-Sde-ecg?docId=CNG.31489099dea4e6b34171e1a5ec101a16.bc1 ‘The United States on Wednesday sought UN Security Council support for action to hold Iran "accountable" for an alleged plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington, diplomats said.

France and Britain have already given strong backing to the US government. But the US administration will also be sending delegations to Beijing and Moscow to give details of the investigation, diplomats said.’

(7) = Newsnight BBC2 08 Sep 2011 ‘Have US anti-terror tactics strayed into entrapment?’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/9584637.stm

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Norway killings show the Islamisation of Europe myth is a greater threat to democracy than Al Qaeda

The myths that Muslim immigrants are taking over Europe and that multiculturalism is harmful caused the murders in Norway.  As in the 1930s the real threats to democracy are irrational hatred of minorities and the mass unemployment which is increasing them.

There is a dangerous myth being spread by the hard right in the UK, Europe and in the US – that Muslims are on their way to taking over Europe through immigration and high birth rates which will result in them outnumbering non-Muslims and imposing Sharia law on us all (1) – (5). The Norwegian lunatic Anders Behring Breivik who shot dozens of teenagers is one of millions saying he opposes “multiculturalism” and “an Islamic takeover of Europe” or “Islamisation”. He says he targeted the Norwegian Labour party for being “traitors” by allowing immigration (6) – (8). These myths are being spread not just by the far right but by columnists in mainstream newspapers, tabloids and magazines. They’re also being pandered to and repeated by many senior members of mainstream parties of the centre-right and centre-left in order to get easy votes – and held by some of their smaller coalition partners.  

These beliefs are a much greater threat to democracy in Britain and Europe than Islamic extremism is because they are held by a much larger and faster growing proportion of the population. As a result the far right have made electoral breakthroughs and the main parties have adopted some of their policies and rhetoric, making more people believe them. These false beliefs have increased during the current recession due to governments and media owners looking for scapegoats to avoid taking the blame themselves, just as similar myths and hatred against Jews, gypsies and immigrants did during the Great Depression of the 1930s, but they have never really gone away – they’ve just switched targets.

The ‘Islamisation’ of Europe myth is that Muslims are going to take over Europe by becoming a majority through immigration and a higher birth rate, then imposing Sharia law on everyone.

The facts and figures on Muslim vs non-Muslim immigration and birth rates in Europe

While a few Muslim extremists in the UK have talked of outnumbering non-Muslims by having lots of children, the figures and research show the Muslim takeover theory would be funny if it wasn’t so widely believed and so dangerous (9). The Pew Research Center in the US found that between 1990 and 2010 the Muslim population of Europe rose from 26 million to about 41 million (and that’s for the whole of Europe – including Eastern European countries outside the EU – e.g Bosnia, Albania and Kosovo). However since this was a small minority of the total population and many immigrants are not Muslims the rise was from 4.1% of the population of Europe to 6%  (10).

Since Pew also found that  birth rates among Muslims globally and in the EU have been falling fast over those 30 years there is no prospect whatsoever of Muslims becoming a majority in the EU (11). Muslims are also a minority of  immigrants  - just 28% of immigrants to the UK in 2010 were Muslims and only 13% of those to Spain – with the average rate for the 14 EU members listed by the Pew report being 28%. The only country with more Muslim than non-Muslim immigrants is France, with 68.5%, because of it’s links with it’s former North African colonies in Morocco and Algeria (12).

Despite the myths, the only countries with which EU member states have uncontrolled immigration are other EU member states  – and uncontrolled immigration only applies to people with EU citizenship, not asylum seekers or migrant workers who are not citizens of an EU country. EU member states’ immigration policy on immigration from outside the EU and on illegal immigration has also become harsher due to EU agreements, not softer (13).

So a large proportion of immigrants to EU countries come from other EU countries, none of which have a Muslim majority or anything close to one. The non-Muslim majority of immigrants from outside the EU and from poorer EU countries to wealthier ones tend to have high birth rates, just like the Muslim minority of immigrants from outside the EU (14) – (16).

The only fact the anti-immigration and anti-Muslim arguments have on their side is that overall birth rates among the non-immigrant population are too low to even maintain the existing population sizes of EU countries without continued immigration. However the effect of this is reduced by the tendency for the children of immigrants to have less children, falling by the second or third generation (on average) to no more children than average for the existing population (i.e falling towards less than two children per couple) (14) –(16).

Research in Europe confirms that the children of Muslim immigrants have less children than their parents did - showing that from the second generation on birth rates among Muslims fall to similar levels to non-Muslim natives – and that includes the Netherlands, despite what Geert Wilders claims (17) – (19). (Credit here to the Yellow Stars Euro Blog post ‘Islamification Myth’ ).

(There has been a big fall in immigration to the EU as a result of the recession caused by the banking crisis and this combined with the increase in immigration from North Africa due to revolutions and wars taking place in the ‘Arab Spring’ may lead to an increasing percentage of immigrants being Muslims (partly because the EU and it’s member governments were  funding the North African dictatorships to prevent immigration to Europe), but since this is partly because overall immigration levels are down, the chances of them becoming a majority in most countries in the EU would still be negligible (20) – (22). )

Most European Muslims are not extreme fundamentalists

Then there’s the false assumption that most Muslims living in and migrating to Europe are extreme fundamentalists who believe in a Taliban or Saudi Arabian version of Sharia law and sympathise with Al Qa’ida, based on demonstrations by handfuls of extremists. In fact, while polls show a higher proportion of Muslims are strongly religious than the average, a poll of British Muslims in 2006 found that more opposed Sharia law (41%) than supported it (40%) – though you wouldn’t have known that form the Telegraph newspaper’s headline which only mentioned the second figure (23).

There are also many interpretations of Sharia law, with a great deal of debate even among devout Muslims as to which parts of the Koran and other Islamic texts apply to the modern day and which don’t and on whether Sharia should adapt to present customs or not.  Some of the more liberal interpretations by Muslim scholars say ‘ijtihad’ (interpretive reasoning) can be used by Muslims to decide how to apply Islamic principles in the present to particular situations. Many interpretations are much less extreme than the Taliban’s or Saudi Arabia’s and don’t involve beheadings, stoning for adultery or cutting off the hands of thieves (24) – (25).  (I am certainly not advocating Sharia law here, just pointing out that not all Muslims who support Sharia are extremists supporting stoning, beheadings and amputations).

The 2006 poll also showed that 99% of British Muslims believed that the London bombings were wrong and “an atrocity” (26).

Even in the hugely unlikely event of any EU countries having a Muslim majority they might well not implement Sharia law anyway. Neither Bosnia, Kosovo, nor Albania have Sharia law despite having majority Muslim populations ; Nor does Turkey, with an Islamic party having been in government for over a decade.

Even if Turkey were to gain membership of the EU ( which is very unlikely to happen) most Turkish Muslims are less than fundamentalist, drinking alcohol, cutting or shaving their facial hair and eating pork for instance (27).

Immigrants are influenced by societies they move to as much as they influence them -

and current immigration is nothing unprecedented historically

Another dodgy assumption made by the anti-Muslim-ites is that Muslim immigrants and their children and grandchildren and great grandchildren will all remain devout Muslims and will not inter-marry with or be influenced by the non-Muslim majority they live among. This seems highly unlikely based on past waves of immigration such as Irish immigration to the UK in the 17th to 20th centuries (which was often accompanied by hysteria from many Protestants about how this could allow a Catholic takeover, with Catholicism imposed on everyone by the Irish through immigration and high birth rates). Later generations have tended to be less religious and to have smaller families as their education and income levels rose and they had more contact with non-Catholics.  (I’m using the term ‘anti-Muslim-ites’ rather than ‘Islamophobes’ because their beliefs are as prejudiced against all Muslims, as irrational and as full of hatred as anti-Semites’ hatred of all Jews).

The same would seem likely to happen with how religious second and later generations are, though bigots and hate mongers like the British National Party, the English Defence League and Breivik have created a reaction among a minority of European Muslims who have reasserted their identity more forcefully in a refusal to be intimidated. Extreme Bosnian Serb and Croatian nationalist attacks on Muslims in the Bosnian war similarly led to a growth in fundamentalism among a Muslim population who previously were happy to celebrate Christmas and drink alcohol (most still are).

So there is no reason to think that immigration to Europe by Muslims will ‘destroy society’ and lead to the ‘native people’ being overwhelmed any more than many previous waves of immigration. Many of these involved violent raiding, murders, rapes and all out war and invasion by people of different religions (for instance the Celts, Romans and Saxons all worshipped different Gods and had significantly different cultures and languages – and the Normans and Vikings had different languages and cultures from the Anglo-Saxons). The current waves of immigration are non-violent and controlled by EU governments – most violence involved is by immigration officers or private security guards involved in forcible deportations.

The numbers of immigrants are certainly greater than in  the past due to higher global population and birth rates and modern transport, but the technology and organisation of controls on immigration are also more advanced and birth rates have been falling for over a decade even in most of the higher birth rate countries.

The real danger is that the extreme right will either get into government again across Europe through a mixture of irrational hatred of all Muslims and immigrants and mass unemployment and poverty caused by austerity policies; or else mainstream parties will continue to go further and further in adopting the policies of the extreme right to keep power (as many already have), rather than challenge and defeat them by reducing the real cause of the problem – unemployment.

A global extremist ideology with far more believers than Al Qa’ida – and far more influential ones

British journalist and author Melanie Phillips - an exponent of the Islamisation myth and the supposed threat of multiculturalism, quoted at length by Breivik

The Norwegian mass murder Breivik’s ideology is part of a growing global extremist movement with far more believers than Al Qa’ida has ever had, comparable to global anti-Semitism and fascist movements during the Great Depression.

A large minority of European and American politicians and newspaper editors have argued that while Breivik’s actions were insane, his beliefs are valid. For instance Francesco Speroni, Chief Whip of the Italian Northern League party in the Italian parliament and former minister in one of Berlusconi’s coalition governments has said that “Breivik's ideas are in defence of western civilisation”. Speroni is an admirer of the late Oriana Fallaci, an Italian journalist and author who popularised the supposed threat of ‘Eurabia’ – Islamisation and Arabisation of Europe (28).

Italian MEP Mario Borgezio, a member of Prime Minister Berlusconi’s coalition partner party the Northern League, has said that “Some of the ideas he expressed are good, barring the violence. Some of them are great” (29).

Breivik’s condemnation of multiculturalism and the supposed ‘Islamisation of Europe’ echo many articles by right wing American commentators like Daniel Pipes in the US and former Daily Mail columnist Melanie Phillips in the UK. Breivik quoted an entire Phillips article from the Daily Mail in 2009 in his online manifesto. In it Phillips claimed the British Labour party in government had allowed unrestricted immigration (false – there were for instance many deportations of black Zimbabweans back to torture or death at Mugabe’s hands, just as under the Conservatives) and that Labour had done this  in order to deliberately “destroy British society” to get the votes of immigrants (30) – (31).

In 2002 Phillips wrote that “Multiculturalism is predicated on the idea that all faiths are equal; but …if enfeebled Christianity no longer identifies itself as the spiritual pastor of the culture…Islam will move into the vacuum.” And that “The question the multiculturalists have to answer is..: are we a western culture, or are we to become something else? If the latter, who is making the decision to wipe out our national identity? Because if we take in enough people who refuse to assimilate to western values, this belief system will not survive.” (32). She has had many similar rants since on her website here and in her book ‘The World turned upside down’. Surprisingly this book is about how the Muslims and the immigrants are taking over due to political correctness gone maaaad.

Bruce Bawer, the American author of one of many fear-mongering books on ‘Islamisation’ called ‘While Europe Slept: How Radical Islam Is Destroying the West from Within’, had a comment piece published in the Wall Street Journal in which he claimed Breivik had “legitimate concern about genuine problems” such as “the rise of Islam in Europe”. Bawer notes that Breivik had quoted his book 22 times in his online manifesto. (33).

Former senior Republican congressman Newt Gingrich (who is running to be the Republican Presidential candidate) has said that America is in danger of becoming a “secular atheist country, potentially one dominated by radical Islamists and with no understanding of what it once meant to be an American.”. Gingrich is clearly playing to the Islamisation myth here, similarly to Phillips – that if we aren’t all right wing Christian fundamentalists the Muslims will take over - but applied to the US (34).

American politician Pat Buchanan, a former member of the Nixon administration, has also written pieces claiming that the Islamisation of Europe which Breivik fears is a real threat (35). Both Bawer and Buchanan praise Brievik’s supposedly deep knowledge of European culture and history and his “intelligence”.

Breivik also talked online of his contacts with the far right English Defence League which also says it opposes ‘Islamisation’ and ‘multiculturalism’ – and online posts by EDL members said he’d given talks and been to demonstrations with them in the UK (36).

The role of Pamela Geller of the Tea Party wing of the US Republican party in spreading anti-Muslim hatred and opposition to multicultural society in Norway is so great that I’m making a separate post on it, but note here that Breivik often posted on Geller’s blog and read her posts (including one claiming all rapes in the past 5 years in Norway were committed by Muslims) and that Geller held rallies against ‘Islamisation’ and ‘multi-culturalism’ in Norway. Geller also blames “the Euro-Med policy” for “inciting” Breivik.

Murdoch’s Sun newspaper didn’t bother waiting for the facts on the Norway attacks, but went ahead and published a front page claiming it was ‘Norway’s 9/11’ and an ‘Al Qaeda massacre’.

Big parties in government adopting far right rhetoric and policies, strengthening the far right

President Sarkozy’s mass forced deportation of gypsies, who are EU citizens born in the EU, from France, to try to avoid losing votes going to the French National Front, is one chilling example of mainstream parties adopting far right policies (37) – (38). The Nazis and the Vichy French collaborators sent gypsies to the concentration camps along with the Jews during the Second World War.

During mayoral elections in Milan and Naples in May Berlusconi and his favoured candidates made their crackdown on immigrants (especially Muslim ones) and closure of gypsy camps the main theme of their campaign, accusing their challengers of being soft on both. Berlusconi’s favoured candidate in Milan lost heavily this time, but The Guardian reported that :

‘Professor James Walston of the American University of Rome, said he feared Berlusconi's tactics could have a lasting impact on interracial and interfaith relations in Italy. "This type of language has been used by the prime minister, not some neo-fascist maniac on the fringes," he said. "It will be difficult to bring Italian political language back to acceptable European levels."’ (39)

There are some genuine problems with crimes by some gypsies, just as there are some extreme fundamentalists and a tiny number of terrorists among European Muslims, but this does not make prejudice against all gypsies or Muslims acceptable any more than it would be acceptable to blame all white, Christian, Europeans for Breivik’s actions. It’s prejudice and political hate and fear-mongering.

Anti-semitism – hatred of Jews was as widespread and socially acceptable in Europe, Britain, the US and Canada in the 1930s and even during World War Two as prejudice against all Muslims and immigrants is now (40). It was accompanied by hatred of immigrants (many Jewish) and gypsies. It continued even up until the Holocaust was revealed in full after World War Two. Then, too, it was mostly the far right who hated the minorities, not the left, with Communists in London fighting Mosley’s fascist anti-Semitic blackshirts who modelled themselves on the Nazis. While some serious anti-Semitism remains, hatred of Muslims and immigrants has become more common.

Governments claiming ‘multiculturalism has failed’ has boosted the far right

The Conservative party in the UK, including Prime Minister David Cameron, have also pandered to the far right by claiming that “multiculturalism has failed” – a claim echoed by Sarkozy in France and Merkel in Germany (41) – (43). To the bigots and the unemployed who blame them for the loss of their jobs the word ‘multiculturalism’ means two things – allowing foreigners with different skin colours and religions into our countries and allowing them to marry Christians and white people. Breivik shot dozens of teenagers dead to punish them for supporting ‘multiculturalism’.

Nick Griffin, the leader of the neo-fascist British National Party, was over-joyed at Cameron’s speech, calling it “A further huge leap for our ideas into the political mainstream” and adding that “A few years ago we had the then Labour Home Secretary David Blunkett admitting that ‘multiculturalism has failed” (44).

 It has not failed though. People of different religions and races can mostly get on with each other, do business, be friends, marry one another and influence each other culturally as equals – and both sides tend to learn and gain from the interaction, getting the best ideas and traditions from each culture. The alternative is a slide towards defining only white Christians as being true Europeans – and that has led to genocide and world wars in the past.

To be fair what Cameron, Sarkozy, Merkel and Blunkett mean by 'multiculturalism' is different cultures, religions or races living entirely separately from one another, but this is more the result of unemployment leading to less contact between communities than of any new failure to integrate. It also fails to take into account the fact that past waves of immigrants have taken time to integrate into society as their children, grandchildren and great grandchildren come into more contact with people of religions and cultures different from their parents. Some of the same politicians talking about the problems of 'multiculturalism' have also strengthened it by supporting faith based schools which hinder the normal process of integration through going to the same schools. Encouraging integration by offering e.g free English classes and community centres and evening classes is fine, but the idea that people should be 'made' to integrate is verging on fascism. How much or how little people want to be involved with others and in what ways are up to them, whether they're immigrants or not. The same goes for imposing one version of what it means to be British or French or German on everyone and demanding they all adopt it.

Though we could yet avoid it, we are risking heading towards a situation like the one in the Great Depression where anti-Semitism against Jewish immigrants and hatred of gypsies combined with austerity policies to lead to fascism, though this time the targets of opportunity for the hate mongers are Muslims and immigrants.

The far right switch targets of opportunity – from Jews to Muslims

The leader of the British National Party and a second candidate – Andrew Brons – were elected as members of the European Parliament in 2008. Griffin had previously written of the “courage” and “sacrifice” of the Waffen SS and in 1998 told a court that the Holocaust never happened and was a mixture of “lies” and propaganda”, while Brons had been a member of the British National Socialist Movement and used to chant “death to Jews” at rallies (45) – (47).

After September 11th though Griffin and his party renounced those views, realising that it was now more popular to spread hatred of Muslims than to spread hatred of Jews. The party changed it’s rules to allow Jews to become members and reversed it’s rhetoric on Israel from unthinking hatred to unthinking and unconditional support for the Israeli government, including Griffin boasting of his support for the Israeli ‘Operation Cast Lead’ which killed over a thousand civilians.

Similarly Gianfranco Fini, who  between 2001 And 2004 held the posts of Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister in the Italian government, was famous in the 1980s through to 1994 for his proud boast that his MSI (Italian Social Movement) party was a fascist party led by the proud heirs of Mussolini who “was the greatest Italian statesman of the twentieth century”.

Yet by 2003 Fini had travelled to Israel to apologise for the shameful way Italian Jews were sent to the German concentration camps by Mussolini’s fascists – and in 2009, as President of the Italian parliament, Fini said that protesters in Turin burning Israeli flags was “far more serious” than a neo-fascist gang beating a man to death (48).

This is clearly more political opportunism than any kind of change of beliefs at work. When challenged during a BBC debate on his past Holocast denial, Griffin merely answered “I can't tell you why I used to say those things anymore than I can tell you why I have changed my mind” (49). I think I can. After September 11th it became more popular to blame all Muslims for the actions of Al Qa’ida than to try to blame all Jews for some of the actions of the Israeli government and military, so Muslims became the new targets of opportunity along with immigrants and gypsies.

The Real Threats to Democracy – Mass unemployment caused by neo-liberal economic and public spending policies combined with scapegoating of immigrants and religious minorities – just as in the 1930s

British fascist leader Oswald Mosley and his Nazi style blackshirts in London during the Great Depression of the 1930s

The real threat to democracy and European and national values of tolerance comes from the extreme right and the growing belief in the myths that they spread. This is made worse by mainstream parties seeming to give credibility to many of these myths by competing to by “tougher on immigration”, by their demands that European Muslims “deal with the extremists in their midst” as though Muslims were all responsible for Al Qa’ida (note no similar calls for Christians to sort out the extreme fundamentalists in their midst after the Norwegian attack by a Christian extremist) and by their constant references to the British National Party and other hard right extremists as if they were the only alternative to the big parties, ignoring Green parties, socialists, Independent candidates and others.

It would be interesting to see a poll of non-Muslims in the UK, Norway or Europe on how many sympathise with the motives of the Norwegian lunatic and how many think his actions were justified. Given the levels of support for the BNP, the English Defence League and others the results would probably give much more cause for concern.

Geert Wilders extreme right ‘Freedom Party’ in the Netherlands won more seats than one of the major parties – the Christian Democrats – in a 2010 election campaign run with adverts showing women clad in burkhas getting pensions before white Dutch women, who were left with none (50).

This threat is made more serious by mass unemployment, welfare cuts and 1930s style austerity policies which risk a second recession. Unemployment, not immigration, has always been the main factor boosting support for the hard right.

When the last textile factories in the North of England closed in the late 90s there were race riots in the towns of Oldham, Bradford and Burnley where the factories had been - and the vote of the BNP rose, getting them several council seats (51) – (52). After the current recession the BNP increased its vote and had MEPs elected for the first time in the UK and since the 2010 elections in the Netherlands the government is reliant on the ‘Freedom Party’ for majorities in votes.

Sarkozy’s government in France and Berlusconis in Italy have also become increasingly anti-immigration in their policies and rhetoric and neo-fascist parties like Fini’s ‘Future and Freedom’ party have been part of the governing coalition in Italy for most of the period since1994.

The current rise of the far right parallels the rise of the Nazis in German during the Great Depression (pointed out by Aneurin Bevan in his book ‘In Place of Fear’ which my blog is named after), in terms of free trade and reduced welfare and public sector employment having led to rising unemployment, with minority religious groups and immigrants used as scapegoats, leading to the rise of the far right.

 Bevan showed that the vote for the Nazi party in Germany from 1924 to 1933 rose and fell as the numbers of unemployed did (Bevan 1952 – Chapter 1, note I). In the 1928 elections when unemployment was around 1.3 million the Nazis won only 12 seats in the Reichstag. In 1932 when unemployment had risen to 5.6 million they became the largest party with 230 seats. (Unemployment figures are from Bevan, election results from this BBC history page) (53) – (54).

Current austerity policies in Europe and Republican party obstruction of Obama’s and the Democrats’ attempts to create some kind of new New Deal to create jobs and economic growth again are risking not only a second recession but also boosting the far right again as a result of even higher unemployment. We have to put pressure on our governments to change policy in case they end up repeating the mistakes of the 1930s.


Sources

(1) = Telegraph 08 Aug 2009 ‘Muslim Europe: the demographic time bomb transforming our continent’,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/5994047/Muslim-Europe-the-demographic-time-bomb-transforming-our-continent.html

(2) = New York Sun 11 Jun 2004 ‘Muslim Europe’ by Daniel Pipes,http://www.danielpipes.org/1796/muslim-europe

(3) = National Interest March-April 2007 ‘Europe's Stark Options’,http://www.danielpipes.org/4323/europes-stark-options

(4) =Jerusalem Post 03 Jan 2008 ‘Will Europe Resist Islamization?’,http://www.danielpipes.org/5503/will-europe-resist-islamization

(5) = Restvradrini.com 11 Apr 2011 ‘Daniel Pipes: “You can’t fight Islamism with ideas coming out of Europe”’,http://www.revistadrini.com/2011/04/02/daniel-pipes-you-cant-fight-islamism-with-ideas-coming-out-of-europe-3/

(6) = Channel 4 news 25 jul 2011 ‘Norway gunman claims two more terror cells exist’,http://www.channel4.com/news/norway-gunman-to-appear-in-court ; ‘Arriving to angry scenes after Norway had observed a minute's silence to honour the dead, Breivik said his fight was against "cultural Marxism" and a Muslim takeover of Europe. He added that his objective was "to give a sharp signal to the people" and to make the Labour party pay "the price of their treason."

(7) = Channel 4 news 23 jul 2011 ‘Norway attacks Anders Behring Breivik profile’, http://www.channel4.com/news/oslo-attacks-anders-behring-breivik-profile ; ‘ Other posts under Breivik's name criticise European policies of trying to accommodate the cultures of different ethnic groups, and claim a significant minority of young British Muslims back radical Islamic militancy…. In one posting he called for the establishment of a "Norwegian EDL" and he claims to have had contact with it and another far-right organisation, Stop the Islamification of Europe’

(8) = Channel 4 News 24 Jul 2011 ‘Norwegian gunman tells police he acted alone’, http://www.channel4.com/news/norwegian-gunman-tells-police-he-acted-alone ; ‘He also attacked "the Islamic colonisation and Islamisation of Western Europe" and "rise of cultural Marxism/multiculturalism".

The facts and figures on Muslim vs non-Muslim immigration and birth rates in Europe

 (9) = Daily Mail 13 Sep 2008 ‘'Have more babies and Muslims can take over the UK' hate fanatic says, as warning comes that 'next 9/11 will be in UK'’, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1054909/Have-babies-Muslims-UK-hate-fanatic-says-warning-comes-9-11-UK.html

(10) = Pew Research Center 27 Jan 2011 ‘The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Projections for 2010-2030 ; region – Europe’ , http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-europe.aspx ; See second graphic – ‘Europe - Muslims as a share of overall population 1999 – 2030’

(11) = Pew Research Center 27 Jan 2011 ‘The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Projections for 2010-2030 ; region – Europe’ , http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-europe.aspx ; See third graphic – ‘Europe – Annual Population growth rates for Muslims and non-Muslims’

(12) = Pew Research Center 27 Jan 2011 ‘The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Projections for 2010-2030 ; region – Europe’ , http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-europe.aspx ; See thirteenth graphic (below sub-heading ‘Migration’) – ‘Europe – Net Muslim migration to selected countries 2010’

(13) = BBC News 13 Aug 2008 ‘Q&A: EU immigration policy’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7667169.stm

(14) = Tomas Frejka, Jan Michael Hoem, Laurent Toulemon, Tomas Sobotka (editors) (2009) ‘Childbearing trends and policies in Europe, Volume 1’ in Demographic Research , Vol 19, Articles I – X, pages 11 & 231,http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=dUHXPHaZE6cC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false (on the fact that  all immigrants having higher fertility levels than existing citizens of the EU and on convergence of birth rates between the two over time due to immigrant birth rate falling)

(15) = Nadja Milewski (2010) ‘Immigration fertility in west Germany : Is there a socialisation effect in transition to second and third births’,http://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/files/peer/Peer_184-2010-11-11.pdf

(16) = Thomas Sobotka (2007) ‘Overview Chapter 7: The rising importance of migrants for childbearing in Europe’, in Demographic Research 1 Jul 2008 (VOLUME 19 - ARTICLE 9, pages 225 – 248, http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/9/

(17) = Joop Garssen & Han Nicolaas (2008) ‘Fertility of Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands: Adjustment to native level within one generation’, in  Demographic Research 18 Jul 2008 (vol 19 article 33, pages 1249 – 1280) , http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/33/

(18) = BBC radio 4 ‘Disproving the Muslim Demographics sums’ 07 Aug 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8189434.stm ;  (relates to claims made by Geert Wilders’ Freedom party in the Netherlands on Muslim birth rates there)

(19) = Mary Mederios Kent (2008) ‘Do Muslims Have More Children Than Other Women in Western Europe?’ in Population Bureau February 2008,http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/muslimsineurope.aspx

(20) = Time 15 Feb 2011 ‘After Revolution, Italy Faces Flood of Tunisian Migrants’, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2049216,00.html#ixzz1UTuIVWT3

(21) = EU Business 20 Mar 2011 ‘Libya suspends help on illegal EU immigration’,http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/libya-unrest.95w/

(22) = Migration Policy Institute 2010 ‘Migration and Immigrants Two Years after the Financial Collapse: Where Do We Stand?’,http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/MPI-BBCreport-2010.pdf

Most European Muslims are not extreme fundamentalists

(23) = Telegraph 19 Feb 2006  ‘Poll reveals 40pc of Muslims want sharia law in UK’,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1510866/Poll-reveals-40pc-of-Muslims-want-sharia-law-in-UK.html

(24) = Council on Foreign Relations 10 Nov 2010 ‘Islam: Governing Under Sharia’,http://www.cfr.org/religion/islam-governing-under-sharia/p8034#p2

(25) United States Institute of Peace & The Center for Study of Islam and Democracy ‘Itjihad – Reinterpreting Islamic Principles for the 21st Century’, http://www.usip.org/files/resources/sr125.pdf

(26) = See (22) above

(27) = BBC News 06 Feb 2009 ‘Turkish contradictions test Islam’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7873081.stm

A global extremist ideology with far more believers than Al Qa’ida – and far more influential ones

(28) = guardian.co.uk 27 Jul 2011 ‘Ex-Berlusconi minister defends Anders Behring Breivik’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/27/ex-berlusconi-minister-defends-breivik

(29) = BBC News 27 Jul 2011 ‘Italy MEP backs ideas of Norway killer Breivik’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14315108

(30) = See (2) to (5) above

(31) = Independent 26 Jul 2011 ‘The right-wing columnists in killer's 'manifesto'’,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/the-rightwing-columnists-in-killers-manifesto-2325918.html

(32) = The Spectator Magazine 11 May 2002 ‘How the West was Lost’ by Melanie Phillips,http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/all/9980/part_6/how-the-west-was-lost.thtml

(33) = Wall Street Journal 25 Jul 2011 ‘Inside the Mind of the Oslo Murderer’, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903999904576465801154130960.html?mod=WSJ_article_comments#articleTabs%3Darticle

(34) = CBS News 27 Mar 2011 ‘Newt Gingrich warns U.S. at risk of atheism and radical Islam’, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20048494-503544.html

(35) = CNSNews.com 26 Jul 2011 ‘Pat Buchanan: A Fire Bell in the Night for Norway’, http://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/article/pat-buchanan-fire-bell-night-norway

(36) = guardian.co.uk 26 Jul 2011 ‘Anders Behring Breivik had links to far-right EDL, says anti-racism group’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/26/anders-behring-breivik-edl-searchlight

Big parties in government adopting far right rhetoric and policies, strengthening the far right

(37) = BBC News 20 Aug 2010 ‘France sends Roma Gypsies back to Romania’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11020429

(38) = Guardian.co.uk 19 Aug 2010 ‘France pushes forward Roma deportations: 'They are trying to get rid of us all'’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/19/france-begins-roma-deportations

(39) = guardian.co.uk 30 May 2011 ‘Silvio Berlusconi faces humiliation as Milan voters support leftwing mayor’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/30/silvio-berlusconi-defeat-in-milan

(40) = Aaron Goldman (1984) ‘The Resurgence of Antisemitism in Britain during World War II’, in ‘Jewish Social Studies’, Vol. 46, No. 1 (Winter, 1984), pp. 37-50 , http://www.jstor.org/stable/4467242

Governments claiming ‘multiculturalism has failed’ has boosted the far right

(41) = BBC News 07 Feb 2011 ‘State multiculturalism has failed, says David Cameron’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12371994

(42) = BBC News 11 Feb 2011 ‘Sarkozy declares multiculturalism "a failure"’,http://www.france24.com/en/20110210-multiculturalism-failed-immigration-sarkozy-live-broadcast-tf1-france-public-questions

(43) = BBC News 17 Oct 2010 ‘Merkel says German multicultural society has failed’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11559451

(44) = British National Party 05 Feb 2011 ‘Cameron’s ‘War on Multiculturalism’ Speech – Another Milestone in the ‘Griffinisation’ of British Politics’, http://www.bnp.org.uk/news/cameron%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%98war-multiculturalism%E2%80%99-speech-%E2%80%93-another-milestone-%E2%80%98griffinisation%E2%80%99-british-politics

The far right switch targets of opportunity – from Jews to Muslims

(45) = Daily Mail 25 May 2009 ‘Family of Winston Churchill slams BNP over far-right party's attempt to hijack wartime leader's legacy’, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1187368/Family-Winston-Churchill-slams-BNP-far-right-partys-attempt-hijack-wartime-leaders-legacy.html

(46) = BBC 25 Nov 2000 ‘Panorama : Under the Skin’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/programmes/2001/bnp_special/roots/1998.stm ; Griffin told a court in 1998 that “I am well aware that the orthodox opinion is that 6 million Jews were gassed and cremated and turned into lampshades. Orthodox opinion also once held that the world is flat... I have reached the conclusion that the 'extermination' tale is a mixture of Allied wartime propaganda, extremely profitable lie, and latter witch-hysteria."

(47) = Telegraph 09 Jun 2009 ‘European elections 2009: BNP Andrew Brons profile’, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/5478006/European-elections-2009-BNP-Andrew-Brons-profile.html

(48) = Time 06 May 2008 ‘Italian Rightist Sparks Outrage’,http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1737829,00.html ; ‘Gianfranco Fini, the president of the Italian Parliament, is facing a firestorm of controversy after saying that the May 1 burning of Israeli flags in Turin by far-left protesters was "much more serious" than the savage beating of a 29-year-old that same day in Verona by a neo-Nazi gang. The victim of the beating, Nicola Tommasoli, died late Monday after several days in a coma.’

(49) = BBC News 22 Oct 2009 ‘Angry scenes face Griffin at BBC’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8321157.stm

The Real Threats to Democracy – Mass unemployment caused by neo-liberal economic and public spending policies combined with scapegoating of immigrants and religious minorities – just as in the 1930s

(50) = BBC News 23 Jun 2011 ‘Netherlands Islam Freedom: Profile of Geert Wilders’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11443211

(51) = BBC News 03 July 2001 ‘Race riot town seeks answers’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1420334.stm

(52) = Guardian 04 May 2002 ‘Gains by far right but relief for ministers’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2002/may/04/localgovelections.politics

(53) = Aneurin Bevan (1952) ‘ In Place of Fear’ Quartet Books, London, 1990, Chapter 1, note I, page 31

(54) = BBC GCSE bitesize ‘History – Hitler’s rise to power’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/history/mwh/germany/hitlerpowerrev1.shtml