Showing posts with label Muslim. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Muslim. Show all posts

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Migrant Myths 2 : The "Flood" of migrants and refugees to the EU and UK - There isn't one, but if Syrian refugees continue to be left to starve there soon will be

Summary: While there is a lot of talk of a “flood” of refugees to the EU or a “migrant crisis” the numbers involved are pretty small compared to the population, size and wealth of the EU – around 0.6% of the existing EU population in 2015 for instance. (This figure includes all migrants estimated by the EU border force Frontex to have entered undetected, and of all nationalities). More a growing trickle than a flood.

The proportion of these coming to the UK is even smaller as the UK gets less than 5% of asylum applications to EU countries. Ninety-five per cent of Syrian refugees are in Syria and neighbouring countries.

The real crisis is for countries like Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. Jordan, for instance, a country the size of Cornwall and much poorer than the UK , has about 1.2 million Syrians, an increase in its population since 2011 of 25%.

The widespread reports that the richer Arab Gulf states have taken in no Syrians are also false. In fact they have taken in about 1.3 million Syrians and in Saudi’s case given them rights to free education and healthcare, but as they are not signatories to the 1951 UN refugee convention, none are reported in UN statistics as refugees.

Since Saudi for instance has an extreme version of Sharia law, and oppresses non-Sunni Muslims, many Syrian refugees – who include Christians, Shia, Alawites and secular or moderate Sunnis, as well as non-Arab Kurds, will not want to live there either.

Many of the Syrian refugees in countries bordering Syria are receiving no food aid or medical treatment or education for their children, because wealthier countries have not donated enough to the UN to pay for this.

The £1.3 billion over 4 years that the British government boasts about having given to refugees is about £400 million a year out of annual public spending of around £700 billion. It is only “generous” compared to the even smaller amounts given by other countries. Its latest pledge only increases this to around £500 million a year (around 0.07% of the UK’s annual public spending).

Unless EU governments , the US and the Gulf states donate a lot more money to the UN to feed Syrian refugees , there really will be a flood of them into Europe soon – especially with the governments of countries neighbouring Syria having started deportations of Syrians, and the Turkish government’s restarting of its war with Turkish Kurdish separatists, which makes Turkey even less safe for Syrian Kurd refugees.

A flood of migrants and refugees to the EU and UK?


Only 5% of Syrian refugees have been taken in so far by countries outside the Middle East. The other 95% are in Syria itself (about 18 million internally displace people forced out of their homes but still somewhere in Syria) or refugees in refugee camps in neighbouring countries. The numbers granted refugee status in neighbouring countries are
over 2.5 million granted refugee status in Turkey, over 1 million in Lebanon, about 600, 000 in Jordan , 250,000 in Iraq (which has a civil war itself) and 100,000 in Egypt (a military dictatorship) . However the total numbers of Syrian refugees in these countries are higher, as many have not been granted formal refugee status. Lebanon and Jordan are small and fairly poor countries. (1).

Lebanon alone has taken in probably more Syrian refugees than the entire EU combined at 1.1 million (or 1.2 million including those not granted refugee status), a 25% increase on its pre-Syrian civil war population of 4.3 million (which already included 450,000 Palestinian refugees).

The EU by comparison got asylum claims from a bit over 200,000 Syrians in 2015 – or just 0.04% of its 504 million population, or 270,000 total since 2011, around 0.05% of its 504.5 million population on the first day of 2011. Of course there were other migrants and asylum seekers from other countries too. The European border agency Frontex estimates the total number of migrants coming to the EU  illegally in 2015 was around 1.5 million, including those likely to have avoided border controls. The numbers who enter legally each year have been similar from 2010 at about 1.4 to 1.5 million a year. So for 2015 the total number of legal and illegal migrants would be around 3 million, or a 0.6% increase in the EU’s population if all were allowed to stay (which they will not be as, while applications may take a long time to process, many applications are rejected each year and around 40% of rejections result in deportation in the same year as they are rejected) (2) – (5).

Multiplying by 4 for the years since the Syrian civil war started in 2011 it would come to a 2.4% increase in population from all forms of immigration. (This will be a significant overestimate as there were more migrants and refugees in 2015 than in previous years)

These figures don’t include the number of non-EU nationals who leave the EU (emigrate from it) every year, from around 700,000 in 2010 to over 800,000 in 2013. That would make the overall growth of non-EU national population in the EU about 2.5 million in 2015, or 10 million over 4 years maximum or around 0.5% per year, or 2% over 4 years (again likely an over-estimate) (6).

So the total increase in the EU’s population from immigration from outside the EU is not so much the “flood” the media often talk of as a rapidly growing trickle relative to the size of the lake it’s flowing into.

And of course immigration and emigration aren’t the only factors affecting population growth. Birth and death rates also affect it. Looking at total population growth for all the countries that are now EU members since 1960  there has not been any significant increase in the rate of population growth. Birth rates have fallen significantly over that time, while people are also living longer due to improved living standards and medical care. The result is a growing population, but with a growing percentage of elderly people (7).

Without either immigration (with immigrants being younger on average) or other measures to increase the birth rate (e.g the 35 hour week tried in France), or both, we may end up with not enough people of working age to pay the taxes to fund healthcare and pensions for pensioners.

But ever increasing population results in increasing pollution, deforestation and environmental damage, including climate change. This is a difficult circle to square.

The rate of population growth in the EU has actually been falling for decades though and is considerably lower than it was in the 1960s.


Are the wealthiest Arab states refusing to take in any Syrian refugees?

The Gulf states – Sunni ‘monarchies’ (dictatorships) allied to the US and who are funding and arming many of the Syrian Jihadist Sunni rebels (including Al Nusrah, the Syrian wing of Al Qa’ida) are refusing to take in any Syrians as refugees, as they are not signatories to the 1951 Refugee convention.  However some Syrian refugees have been given residency permits to live in Saudi and granted free education and healthcare (the Saudi government claim over 100,000 though this is not an independently verified figure) (8) – (9).

World Bank figures gave the total for all the Gulf monarchies as over 1.3 million Syrians living in them in 2013 , 1 million in Saudi, but the UNHCR figure in 2015 was just 500,000, possibly due to definitions of who was being counted (10).

However even Saudi citizens have no real rights not to be imprisoned or executed without fair trial. Immigrants working in Saudi are exploited ruthlessly.

And Saudi Arabia has an extreme version of Sharia law based on the Wahhabi sect of Sunni Islam. Syrian refugees include Christians, Alawites and Shia, all of who face persecution in Saudi, along with moderate and secular Muslims who do not want to live under Sharia law. So many refugees would rather avoid Saudi Arabia and other dictatorships with religious laws.

Is the UK taking more than its share of refugees coming to the EU? No, far less

The UK’s population has grown steadily too, around a 20% increase in the last 50 years. The rate of increase has gone up and down over that period, but is currently higher than at any point since the 1950s (11).

The UK, with over 10% of the EU’s population, and one of the richest countries in it, gets less than 5% of asylum applications for refugee status from people who are not citizens of any EU country. So the people at Calais are not a flood either, but an even smaller trickle. For instance in the second quarter of 2015 the UK got just 3.5% of applications to EU countries. In the  third quarter it got just 2.86% (12).

And that trickle is not higher than ever before either – the
number of asylum applications in the UK in 2014 was about the same number as in 1990. And overall about 52% of asylum applications processed in 2014 in the UK were refused (13) – (14).

The UK actually gets very few asylum applications relative to it’s size and wealth – one of the lowest rates in the EU relative to our population.


Source : BBC News (15)

The UK, twice as wealthy as Lebanon in GDP per capita and a much larger country in terms of population and land area, had granted just 5,102 Syrians the right to remain as refugees by August 2015 and offered to take just 4,000 a year in future. (Total numbers will be higher as some will be waiting for applications to be heard, but still likely in the thousands compared to Lebanon’s millions)

Graphic : http://www.ifitweremyhome.com/compare/GB/LB


The real refugee crisis is in Syria’s neighbours, not the EU, but unless the EU provide more money to feed and house refugees, it may be an EU crisis soon


The EU and UK are not suffering a refugee “flood” or “crisis”, but manageable numbers both in terms of their exsiting population, their land area and their wealth. The real refugee crisis is in Syria and for its neighbours. But if the wealthier governments continue to fail to provide enough money to feed and house refugees in countries neighbouring Syria, there may soon be a real flood.

Those Syrians in refugee camps in the Middle East are not getting enough food, and often no medical treatment for illnesses and wounds, as donations from governments around the world have been too low. Syrian refugees in Turkey and Lebanon currently get under 50 cents or 35 pence worth of food a day, not nearly enough. The Turkish government has begun sending many back to Syria. Jordan has closed its border with Syria leaving thousands of refugees stranded in the desert. Lebanon has also begun deporting Syrian refugees . The governments of the three countries are saying they can’t take any more refugees
(16 )  – (19).

The UK’s supposedly “generous” aid to Syrian refugees in the Middle East comes to about £1.1 billion over 4 years since the Syrian civil war began, or a bit under £300 million a year, out of annual public spending of around £700 billion (thousand million) a year. The fact that other EU governments have given even less is nothing to boast about. Even Cameron’s latest pledge to increase it to around £510 million a year from the UK and ask other EU countries to increase similarly is far too little. It amounts to under 0.07% of the UK’s annual public spending of over £700 billion a year (20) – (22).

Sources

(1) = UNHCR 19 Jan 2016 ‘Syria Regional Refugee Response - Inter-agency Information Sharing Portal’, http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php

(2) = BBC News ‘Migrant crisis: Migration to Europe explained in graphics’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34131911 (200,000 asylum applications from Syrians EU 2015; Frontex 1.5 million migrants estimate for 2015)

(3) = Al Jazeera 22 Dec 2015 ‘One million 'refugees and migrants' reached EU in 2015’, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/12/million-refugees-migrants-reached-eu-2015-151222100045573.html (270,000 Syrians applied for asylum in EU countries since 2011)

(4) = BBC News 09 Sep 2015 ‘Migrant crisis: Who does the EU send back?’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34190359 (only 39% of rejected asylum claimants deported from the EU in 2015)

(5) = BBC News 13 Aug 2015 ‘What happens to failed asylum seekers?’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-33849593

(6) = Eurostat 10 Jun 2015 ‘Immigration in the EU’,
http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/e-library/docs/infographics/immigration/migration-in-eu-infographic_en.pdf

(7) = Eurostat Jul 2015 ‘Population and population change statistics’,
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Population_and_population_change_statistics

(8)= Huffington Post 23 Sep 2015 ‘Western Media's Miscount of Saudi Arabia's Syrian Refugees’,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/anhvinh-doanvo/europes-crisis-refugees_b_8175924.html

(9) = Guardian 12 Sep 2015 ‘Saudi Arabia says criticism of Syria refugee response 'false and misleading'’, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/12/saudi-arabia-says-reports-of-its-syrian-refugee-response-false-and-misleading

(10) = News Week 12 Apr 2015 ‘The Gulf States Are Taking Syrian Refugees’, http://europe.newsweek.com/gulf-states-are-taking-syrian-refugees-401131

(11) = ONS 26 Jun 2014 ‘Changes in UK population over the last 50 years’, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pop-estimate/population-estimates-for-uk--england-and-wales--scotland-and-northern-ireland/2013/sty-population-changes.html

(12) = Eurostat News Release 10 Dec 2015 ‘Asylum in the EU Member States More than 410 000 first time asylum seekers registered in the third quarter of 2015’, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7105334/3-10122015-AP-EN.pdf/04886524-58f2-40e9-995d-d97520e62a0e

(13) = Migration Observatory , Oxford university, 13 Aug 2015, ‘Migration to the UK : Asylum’, In 2014, 59% of asylum applications were initially refused. 28% of appeals were eventually approved,
http://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/migration-uk-asylum

(14) = Migration Observatory , Oxford university, 13 Aug 2015, ‘Migration to the UK : Asylum’, Figure 1 - Asylum applications and estimated inflows, 1984-2014,
http://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/migration-uk-asylum

(15) = BBC News ‘Migrant crisis: Migration to Europe explained in graphics’ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34131911

 (16) = Observer 06 Sep 2015 ‘UN agencies 'broke and failing' in face of ever-growing refugee crisis’, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/06/refugee-crisis-un-agencies-broke-failing

(17) = BBC 15 Jan 2016 ‘Turkey 'acting illegally' over Syria refugees deportations’ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35135810

(18) = Independent 22 Jan 2016 ‘Jordan blocks Syria border leaving thousands of refugees in the desert - including hundreds of pregnant women’, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/jordan-blocks-syrian-border-to-leave-thousands-of-refugees-trapped-in-the-desert-including-hundreds-a6828471.html

(19) = CBS/AP 07 Feb 2016 ‘Turkey: We're at end of "capacity to absorb" refugees’,
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/turkey-has-reached-the-end-of-its-capacity-to-absorb-refugees/

(20) = DFID Syria Crisis Response, https://www.gov.uk/government/world/organisations/dfid-syria-crisis-response

(21) = http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/total_spending_2015UKbn

(22) = www.theguardian.com 04 Feb 2016 ‘David Cameron calls for billions more in international aid for Syrian refugees’, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/03/david-cameron-calls-for-billions-more-in-international-aid-for-syrian-refugees

Tuesday, July 09, 2013

Power sharing among all parties is needed in Egypt to prevent the military and Mubarak's former officials holding all the cards by dividing and conquering everyone else

Some claim the coup against elected Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi was justified because he acted undemocratically. While Morsi did act undemocratically in some ways, this has been greatly exaggerated relating to the new constitution and his decree powers.

The new Interim President is Adly Mansour. Originally appointed a judge by Mubarak, in 2012 he over-turned a ban on former members of Mubarak’s dictatorship standing in elections (1).

He has re-appointed Abdel-Maguid Mahmoud as Chief Prosecutor.  Mahmoud was sacked by Morsi’s November 2012 decree for acquitting Mubarak and his security officials of ordering the killing of protesters. (2) – (5).

This may be the start of a counter-revolution following the military coup.

The fact that Morsi’s decree powers were primarily a response to Mubarak’s judiciary and prosecutors blocking  the conviction of those who ordered anti-Mubarak protesters killed,  along with constitutional reform, by trying to dissolve the elected parliament and assembly, has largely been ignored (6) – (9).

So have Morsi’s many concessions to, and repeated, mostly rejected, offers of negotiations with, the opposition National Salvation Front, which includes parties founded by former MPs from Mubarak’s NDP party and parties which have allied with them or granted them membership.(10) – (19).

The opposition mostly demanded Morsi accede to all its demands, including his resignation, before it would talk, even when, just before the coup, he offered a national coalition government (20) – (22).

His offer of parliamentary elections for April was rejected (23).

Morsi gave up most of his decree powers less than three weeks after assuming them,  maintaining only the referendum on the new constitution, the sacking of  the Chief Prosecutor ; and the retrial of Mubarak and his officials (24).

The new constitution was drawn up by a constituent assembly elected by the elected Egyptian parliament. The assembly was dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party and the Islamist Nour party because a majority of Egyptians voted for them (25) – (26). 

Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood are certainly not blameless. Brotherhood supporters, acting with their leaders’ approval, tortured confessions from people they suspected of being hired thugs sent to attack them. Though using plain clothes police or hired thugs to attack political opponents was a method used by Mubarak and by unknown forces (the military? Mubarak remnants?) since his overthrow, this doesn’t justify torture (27) – (29).

Islamic parties’ MPs drafted a law to reduce the minimum age of marriage for women to 13 and blamed women protesters for their own rape by mobs. The military are no protectors of women’s rights though, having beaten, stripped , tortured and killed female protesters and carried out “virginity tests” which amounted to sexual assault under military rule (though judges ruled these illegal) (30) – (35).

Protesters saw Morsi as betraying the “bread, freedom and social justice” demands of protesters by rationing publicly subsidised bread and cutting fuel price subsidies in order to secure an IMF loan, possibly in the belief that following Mubarak’s IMF approved economic and welfare policies would ensure US government support, preventing a military coup (36) – (39).

A lack of any attempt to reduce population growth has left Egypt with food and energy shortages which force it to import most of its food. The scandal over the meeting about the Ethiopian dam was similarly linked to impending water shortages (40) – (42).

While condemning Morsi’s economic mismanagement the opposition opposed and got him to reverse increased taxes on cigarettes and alcohol which were conditions for an IMF loan (43)

The secular opposition rightly condemned Morsi’s alliance with extreme Islamists. He appointed a member of the former terrorist group Gaama Islamiya, which carried out the Luxor massacre of western tourists in 1997, as governor of Luxor. The group’s leader threatened to “sever the heads” of anti-Morsi protesters. Morsi and the Brotherhood also spoke at rallies with extreme Sunni clerics who condemned Shia as infidels, and called Egyptians to armed Jihad in Syria (44) – (46).  

Some clerics said opposing Morsi was punishable by death under Islam, though he thanked others who denied this (47).

Murders of Shia and Christians followed. However Morsi condemned the killings and ordered the police to bring those responsible to justice. Sectarian murders also happened under Mubarak and military rule, including the notorious Maspero massacre of Christians by the military in October 2011. So the coup is not protecting minorities (48) – (50).

The military has its own extremist allies. In December 2011 Abdel Moneim Kato, a retired general then on the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, said protesters should be “burnt in Hitler’s ovens”, though he was later fined for this (51) – (52).

A Wall Street Journal editorial recently claimed that Egyptians would be “lucky” if their military rulers turned out to be like “Pinochet” and “hired free market reformers and midwifed a transition to democracy”. In fact Pinochet had thousands tortured and murdered and ruled as a dictator without any elections for 15 years till 1988 and planned to stay on till 1997 if he hadn’t lost a referendum (53).

While all Egyptians understandably try to avoid getting on the wrong side of the men with guns, tanks and jet fighters ; and both the Islamic parties and their secular opponents have tried to get the decisive support of the military as kingmakers, it shouldn’t be forgotten that since Mubarak fell, and even before Morsi was elected, the military has been responsible for much of the jailing, killing and torture of protesters ; even jailing some for years merely for criticising it (54).

The military may aim to prevent civil war, but maintaining their own power and influence is probably an additional motive. The coup hasn’t prevented pro and anti Morsi protesters killing one another ; and the military was already killing pro-Morsi protesters with live ammunition before the 50 deaths on July 9th, though not all protesters on either side are peaceful ; a minority being armed with clubs or knives (55) – (60).

While some pro-Morsi protesters armed with petrol bombs and at least one man firing a pistol seem to have been present when the military killed over 50 and wounded over 400 of the Muslim Brotherhood protesters camped outside the building where they’ve imprisoned the deposed President, and 3 soldiers and policemen were killed, this may have been an over-reaction, like armed police and the military using live ammunition on protesters, some of whom were violent, under both Mubarak and military rule (61) .

Being elected shouldn’t be a blank cheque used by governments to do whatever they want without listening to all their citizens, but military coups against elected governments are undemocratic.

Zogby polls found support for Morsi and the Brotherhood fell to 27% by May, and most Egyptians opposed the new constitution, but 56% of Egyptians were against the army taking power even temporarily (62) – (63).

However opinions can change quickly and polling results differ greatly depending on the question asked : in March Pew Polling found 52% having a positive view of Morsi and 53% viewing the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party positively (64).

The secular opposition condemned Morsi for military repression, for instance his decree which granted the military the power to arrest and try civilians until the constitutional referendum. Will it now repeat this and hand the military all the cards?

While there may be some former members of the NDP that the secular opposition to Mubarak can work with, a power sharing government of all parties might be a way to prevent the military and Mubarak’s old guard continuing to return real power to their own hands by playing their divided opponents off against each other.

(1) = BBC News 04 Jul 2013 ‘Profile: Interim Egyptian President Adly Mansour’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23176293

(2) = Al Ahram Online 04 Jul 2013 ‘Prosecutor-general sacked by Morsi reinstated’,
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75698/Egypt/Politics-/Prosecutorgeneral-sacked-by-Morsi-reinstated.aspx

(3) = Amnesty International 02 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt: Mubarak verdict fails to deliver full justice’,  http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/egypt-mubarak-2012-06-02 ; ‘However, the acquittal of all the other defendants, including senior security officials, leaves many still waiting for full justice…Six senior security officials, including former head of the now-disbanded State Security Investigations service (SSI), were acquitted…Corruption charges against two of Mubarak’s sons, Gamal and Alaa, and his business associate Hussein Salem, who was tried in absentia, were dropped.’

(4) = VOA News 08 Jun 2013 ‘Anger Erupts in Egypt Over Mubarak Retrial’, http://www.voanews.com/content/anger-erupts-in-egypt-over-mubarak-trial/1677958.html ‘Anger erupted Saturday in the Egyptian court retrying ousted president Hosni Mubarak for complicity in the killings of hundreds of protesters, after a judge barred the participation of lawyers representing families of those killed.’

(5) = BBC News 22 Nov 2012 ‘Egypt's President Mursi assumes sweeping powers’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20451208 ; 3rd para ‘President Mursi also sacked the chief prosecutor and ordered the retrial of people accused of attacking protesters when ex-President Mubarak held office.’

(6) = Egypt Independent 22 Nov 2012 ‘Morsy issues new constitutional declaration’,
http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/morsy-issues-new-constitutional-declaration

(7) = BBC News 14 Jun 2012 ‘Egypt supreme court calls for parliament to be dissolved’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18439530

(8) = NYT 02 Dec 2012 ‘Egyptian Court Postpones Ruling on Constitutional Assembly’,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/03/world/middleeast/egypt-morsi-constitution-vote.html

(9) = CNN 23 Nov 2012 ‘Egypt's Morsy says courts can't overturn him’,
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/22/world/meast/egypt-morsy-powers/index.html

(10) = BBC News 08 Jun 2012 ‘Egypt parties end deadlock over constitutional panel’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18360403   (reports on how Morsi added trade unionists, Coptic Christian church representatives and other appointees to the assembly drafting the constitution after the non-Islamist opposition boycotted it. However there were accusations that the new appointments included too many Islamists too)

(11) = BBC News 09 Dec 2012 ‘Egypt crisis: Morsi offers concession in decree annulment’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20655412

(12) = BBC News 23 Feb 2013 ‘Egypt's Morsi changes parliamentary elections date’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21559455

(13) = BBC News 07 Dec 2012 ‘Egypt opposition rejects President Morsi's call for talks’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20642080

(14) = AP / Time World 10 Dec 2012 ‘Gunmen Attack Egyptian Opposition Protesters’, http://world.time.com/2012/12/10/egypts-military-takes-over-security-ahead-of-vote/ ; 9th to 10th paragraphs ‘Cracks in the opposition’s unity first appeared last weekend when one of its leading figures, veteran opposition politician Ayman Nour, accepted an invitation by Morsi to attend a “national dialogue” meeting. On Monday, another key opposition figure, El-Sayed Badawi of the Wafd party, met Morsi at the presidential palace. The opposition has said it would not talk to Morsi until he shelves the draft constitution and postpones the referendum.’

(15) = BBC News 28 Jan 2013 ‘Egypt opposition rejects Mohammed Morsi dialogue call’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21234543

(16) = France 24 27 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt opposition rejects dialogue with Morsi’,
http://www.france24.com/en/20130627-egypt-opposition-rejects-dialogue-with-morsi

(17) = Wall Street Journal 05 Jul 2013 ‘Egyptians Open Door to Mubarak's Allies’,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324260204578587872719316196.html ; see 4th, 17th, 19th , 20th paragraphs ‘Mohammed Abul Ghar, the head of Egypt's secular-leaning Social Democratic Party and a leader in the National Salvation Front, the leading opposition group to Mr. Morsi…After Mr. Morsi claimed authority over Egypt's judiciary in November, many of the young secular activists behind the revolution against Mr. Mubarak made common cause with Mr. Shafiq's supporters and other NDP loyalists… The party decided to accept former NDP members who weren't close to Mr. Mubarak and whose records were clean of corruption allegations… Gamal al Zini, a former NDP parliamentarian from the Nile Delta city of Damiet, said he has had regular meetings with local youth activists, Tamarod leaders and members of Mr. ElBaradei's Constitution Party since May..’

(18) = Egypt Independent 20 Feb 2013 ‘Former NDP members to form new party’,
http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/former-ndp-members-form-new-party

(19) = Ahram Online 11 Feb 2011 ‘NDP Offshoots’,
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/33/104/26897/Elections-/Political-Parties/NDP-Offshoots.aspx

(20) = Al Jazeera 03 Jul 2013 ‘Egypt's Morsi offers consensus government’,
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/07/20137394753443155.html

(21) = Israel National News 03 Jul 2013 ‘Morsi Offers to Form Interim Coalition Government’, http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/169573#.UdY3aW3K5bM

(22) = ABC 04 Jul 2013 ‘Morsi aide says coup underway in Egypt after president defies army deadline to quit’, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-04/tensions-high-in-egypt-as-army-deadline-expires/4798284 , 11th – 14th paras, ‘In a last-ditch statement before the deadline passed at 1.00am (AEST), the presidency said a coalition government should be part of a solution to the country's political standoff. Mr Morsi reiterated his call for a national dialogue and the formation of a panel to amend the country's controversial Islamist-drafted constitution….Opposition parties refused to negotiate with him and met instead with the commander of the armed forces.’

(23) = BBC News 23 Feb 2013 ‘Egypt's Morsi changes parliamentary elections date’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21559455

(24) = BBC News 09 Dec 2012 ‘Egypt crisis: Morsi offers concession in decree annulment’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20655412

(25) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constituent_Assembly_of_Egypt (includes mainstream sources)

(26) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_parliamentary_election,_2011%23Combined_results

(27) = HRW 12 Dec 2012 ‘Egypt: Investigate Brotherhood’s Abuse of Protesters’, http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/12/12/egypt-investigate-brotherhood-s-abuse-protesters

(28) = ‘From Plebiscite to Contest? Egypt’s Presidential Election’, http://www.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/mena/egypt0905/egypt0905.pdf (see page 5 ‘Government Harassment’)

(29) = BBC News 07 Mar 2011 ‘Egypt protesters attacked by 'armed civilians' in Cairo’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12661270

(30) = Observer 30 Mar 2013 ‘How Egypt's radical rulers crush the lives and hopes of women’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/31/egypt-cairo-women-rights-revolution

(31) = Al Ahram 11 Feb 2013 ‘Shura MPs fault protesters for Tahrir Square rapes, sexual harassment’,
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/64552/Egypt/Politics-/Shura-MPs-fault-protesters-for-Tahrir-Square-rapes.aspx

(32) = Amnesty International UK 23 Dec 2011 ‘Egypt: 'shocking' violence against women protesters must not be repeated’, http://www.amnesty.org.uk/news_details.asp?NewsID=19876

(33) = Egypt women protesters forced to take 'virginity tests' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12854391 ; 2rd to 4th paragraphs read ‘Amnesty International …says at least 18 female protesters were arrested after army officers cleared Tahrir Square on 9 March. It says they were then beaten, given electric shocks and strip searched.’

(34) = Guardian 27 Dec 2011 ‘'Virginity tests' on Egypt protesters are illegal, says judge’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/27/virginity-tests-egypt-protesters-illegal

(35) = The National (UAE) 21 Dec 2011 ‘Egyptian military apologises for assaults on women protesters’, http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/middle-east/egyptian-military-apologises-for-assaults-on-women-protesters#ixzz2YWH5VOmZ ; see 5th, second last and last paragraphs  ‘military police chasing young men and women through Tahrir Square and nearby streets, beating them with clubs and sticks. The latest crackdown has killed at least 12 people, all protesters, according to the ministry of health…doctors working …in Tahrir Square, say …between 14 and 18…But some female activists here say Mrs Clinton's focus on violence against women does a disservice to some of the larger abuses against the protest movement. "Clinton is missing the bigger picture..said Menna Alaa, 18, an Egyptian female blogger …"… the army is killing protesters - man, woman, child. They are not making distinctions"’

(36) = Global Post 20 Mar 2013 ‘Egypt bread protests begin after rationing announced’, http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/egypt/130320/cairo-egypt-bread-protests-rationing-fuel-shortage

(37) = Al Ahram 20 Dec 2012 ‘It’s still bread, freedom and social justice’, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/631/30/It%E2%80%99s-still-bread,-freedom-and-social-justice.aspx

(38) = guardian.co.uk 19 Mar 2013 ‘Bakers become latest victims of Egypt subsidy cuts’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/19/bakers-egyptian-subsidy-cuts

(39) = guardian.co.uk 01 Jul 2013 ‘Egypt's presidency defies threat of military coup’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/01/egypts-presidency-defies-threat-military-coup

(40) = guardian.co.uk 06 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt's gathering economic gloom leaves millions facing food shortages’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2013/jun/06/egypt-economic-gloom-food-shortages

(41) = ‘Egypt's new age of unrest is a taste of things to come’ by Dr Nafeez Ahmed, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/jul/04/egypt-muslim-brotherhood-morsi-unrest-protests

(42) = Guardian Weekly 18 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt sees Ethiopian damn as risk to water supply’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/18/egypt-ethiopia-dam-blue-nile

(43) = guardian.co.uk 11 Dec 2012 ‘Egypt's IMF loan deal postponed after Mohamed Morsi scraps tax increases’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/11/egypt-imf-loan-delay-morsi

(44) = guardian.co.uk 17 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt's Mohamed Morsi appoints hardline Islamist to govern Luxor’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/17/morsi-appoints-islamist-governor-luxor

(45) = AP / ABC News 28 Jun 2013 ‘Violence Flares in Egypt Before Weekend Rallies’, http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/egypts-opposition-criticizes-presidents-speech-19513846?page=3

(46) = Wall Street Journal 24 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt's Morsi And His Party Criticized After Killings’, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323998604578565510237185012.html

(47) = AP / Seattle Times 19 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt top cleric: Protests against Morsi permitted’,
http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2021218905_apmlegypt.html

(48) = Human Rights Watch 27 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt: Lynching of Shia Follows Months of Hate Speech’, http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/06/27/egypt-lynching-shia-follows-months-hate-speech

(49) = Al Ahram 24 Jun 2013 ‘Egypt's Morsi, Qandil denounce Shia killings’,
http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/74813.aspx

(50) = HRW 25 Oct 2011 ‘Egypt: Don’t Cover Up Military Killing of Copt Protesters’,
http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/10/25/egypt-don-t-cover-military-killing-copt-protesters

(51) = Egypt Independent 19 Dec 2011 ‘Politicians criticize 'Hitler' statements made by army official’,  http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/politicians-criticize-hitler-statements-made-army-official

(52) = Egypt Independent 28 Feb 2012 ‘Court imposes LE10,000 fine on SCAF member for 'Hitler's ovens' comment’, http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/court-imposes-le10000-fine-scaf-member-hitlers-ovens-comment

(53) = WSJ 04 Jul 2013 ‘After the Coup in Cairo’, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324399404578583932317286550.html#articleTabs=article (see last paragraph)

(54) = Amnesty International 22 Nov 2011 ‘Egypt: Military rulers have 'crushed' hopes of 25 January protesters’, http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/egypt-military-rulers-have-crushed-hopes-25-january-protesters-2011-11-22

(55) = Financial Times 06 Jul 2013 ‘Egypt counts its dead after day of violence’,
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3c61c72c-e54a-11e2-ad1a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2YOQLQWHZ , ‘Egypt was on Saturday recovering from a day of violence and mayhem after street battles between thousands of supporters and opponents of its ousted president raged across the country on Friday. At least least 35 people have been killed and 1,404 injured in the last 48 hours according to the health ministry....’

(56) = BBC News 05 Jul 2013 ‘Egypt unrest: Morsi marchers die as army fires’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23202096

(57) = Sky News 05 Jul 2013 ‘Egypt Coup: Morsi Protests Turn Deadly’,
http://news.sky.com/story/1111961/egypt-coup-morsi-protests-turn-deadly

(58) = Reuters 29 Jun 2013 ‘Fearing bloodshed, rival Cairo protests steel selves for Sunday’, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/29/us-egypt-protests-violence-idUSBRE95S0H820130629

(59) = Washington Post 02 Jul 2013 ‘Throngs rally in Egypt’,
http://articles.philly.com/2013-07-02/news/40309890_1_morsi-supporters-islamist-leader-muslim-brotherhood ; 2nd paragraph ‘Thousands of Morsi supporters, many of them from his Muslim Brotherhood party, filled another Cairo thoroughfare with their own chants of support. Some brandished wooden clubs, canes, and metal pipes, ready to defend themselves’

(60) = Reuters 06 Jul 2013 ‘Protests rage across Egypt as Islamists vow further violence’, http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Pro-and-anti-Morsi-protests-rage-across-Egypt-leaving-at-least-24-dead-318904

(61) = The New Yorker 08 Jul 2013 ‘After the Shooting In Cairo’, http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2013/07/after-the-shooting-in-cairo.html

(62) = Zogby Research Services Jun 2013 ‘AFTER TAHRIR: Egyptians Assess Their Government, Their Institutions, and Their Future’ , http://www.aaiusa.org/page/-/Polls/EgyptianAttitudesTowardMB_%20June2013.pdf (see pages 10, 11,19 and 23 by numbers at foot of pages, or 12,13, 21 and 25 by PDF page counter)

(63) = Independent Media Review Analysis 18 Jun 2013 ‘Zogby poll of Egyptians: Morsi bad-do not want army take over’, http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=61307

(64) =  Wall Street Journal 17 May 2013 ‘Poll Shows Muslim Brotherhood Maintaining Support Despite Egypt’s Travails’, http://blogs.wsj.com/middleeast/2013/05/17/poll-shows-muslim-brotherhood-maintaining-support-despite-egypts-travails/

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Norway killings show the Islamisation of Europe myth is a greater threat to democracy than Al Qaeda

The myths that Muslim immigrants are taking over Europe and that multiculturalism is harmful caused the murders in Norway.  As in the 1930s the real threats to democracy are irrational hatred of minorities and the mass unemployment which is increasing them.

There is a dangerous myth being spread by the hard right in the UK, Europe and in the US – that Muslims are on their way to taking over Europe through immigration and high birth rates which will result in them outnumbering non-Muslims and imposing Sharia law on us all (1) – (5). The Norwegian lunatic Anders Behring Breivik who shot dozens of teenagers is one of millions saying he opposes “multiculturalism” and “an Islamic takeover of Europe” or “Islamisation”. He says he targeted the Norwegian Labour party for being “traitors” by allowing immigration (6) – (8). These myths are being spread not just by the far right but by columnists in mainstream newspapers, tabloids and magazines. They’re also being pandered to and repeated by many senior members of mainstream parties of the centre-right and centre-left in order to get easy votes – and held by some of their smaller coalition partners.  

These beliefs are a much greater threat to democracy in Britain and Europe than Islamic extremism is because they are held by a much larger and faster growing proportion of the population. As a result the far right have made electoral breakthroughs and the main parties have adopted some of their policies and rhetoric, making more people believe them. These false beliefs have increased during the current recession due to governments and media owners looking for scapegoats to avoid taking the blame themselves, just as similar myths and hatred against Jews, gypsies and immigrants did during the Great Depression of the 1930s, but they have never really gone away – they’ve just switched targets.

The ‘Islamisation’ of Europe myth is that Muslims are going to take over Europe by becoming a majority through immigration and a higher birth rate, then imposing Sharia law on everyone.

The facts and figures on Muslim vs non-Muslim immigration and birth rates in Europe

While a few Muslim extremists in the UK have talked of outnumbering non-Muslims by having lots of children, the figures and research show the Muslim takeover theory would be funny if it wasn’t so widely believed and so dangerous (9). The Pew Research Center in the US found that between 1990 and 2010 the Muslim population of Europe rose from 26 million to about 41 million (and that’s for the whole of Europe – including Eastern European countries outside the EU – e.g Bosnia, Albania and Kosovo). However since this was a small minority of the total population and many immigrants are not Muslims the rise was from 4.1% of the population of Europe to 6%  (10).

Since Pew also found that  birth rates among Muslims globally and in the EU have been falling fast over those 30 years there is no prospect whatsoever of Muslims becoming a majority in the EU (11). Muslims are also a minority of  immigrants  - just 28% of immigrants to the UK in 2010 were Muslims and only 13% of those to Spain – with the average rate for the 14 EU members listed by the Pew report being 28%. The only country with more Muslim than non-Muslim immigrants is France, with 68.5%, because of it’s links with it’s former North African colonies in Morocco and Algeria (12).

Despite the myths, the only countries with which EU member states have uncontrolled immigration are other EU member states  – and uncontrolled immigration only applies to people with EU citizenship, not asylum seekers or migrant workers who are not citizens of an EU country. EU member states’ immigration policy on immigration from outside the EU and on illegal immigration has also become harsher due to EU agreements, not softer (13).

So a large proportion of immigrants to EU countries come from other EU countries, none of which have a Muslim majority or anything close to one. The non-Muslim majority of immigrants from outside the EU and from poorer EU countries to wealthier ones tend to have high birth rates, just like the Muslim minority of immigrants from outside the EU (14) – (16).

The only fact the anti-immigration and anti-Muslim arguments have on their side is that overall birth rates among the non-immigrant population are too low to even maintain the existing population sizes of EU countries without continued immigration. However the effect of this is reduced by the tendency for the children of immigrants to have less children, falling by the second or third generation (on average) to no more children than average for the existing population (i.e falling towards less than two children per couple) (14) –(16).

Research in Europe confirms that the children of Muslim immigrants have less children than their parents did - showing that from the second generation on birth rates among Muslims fall to similar levels to non-Muslim natives – and that includes the Netherlands, despite what Geert Wilders claims (17) – (19). (Credit here to the Yellow Stars Euro Blog post ‘Islamification Myth’ ).

(There has been a big fall in immigration to the EU as a result of the recession caused by the banking crisis and this combined with the increase in immigration from North Africa due to revolutions and wars taking place in the ‘Arab Spring’ may lead to an increasing percentage of immigrants being Muslims (partly because the EU and it’s member governments were  funding the North African dictatorships to prevent immigration to Europe), but since this is partly because overall immigration levels are down, the chances of them becoming a majority in most countries in the EU would still be negligible (20) – (22). )

Most European Muslims are not extreme fundamentalists

Then there’s the false assumption that most Muslims living in and migrating to Europe are extreme fundamentalists who believe in a Taliban or Saudi Arabian version of Sharia law and sympathise with Al Qa’ida, based on demonstrations by handfuls of extremists. In fact, while polls show a higher proportion of Muslims are strongly religious than the average, a poll of British Muslims in 2006 found that more opposed Sharia law (41%) than supported it (40%) – though you wouldn’t have known that form the Telegraph newspaper’s headline which only mentioned the second figure (23).

There are also many interpretations of Sharia law, with a great deal of debate even among devout Muslims as to which parts of the Koran and other Islamic texts apply to the modern day and which don’t and on whether Sharia should adapt to present customs or not.  Some of the more liberal interpretations by Muslim scholars say ‘ijtihad’ (interpretive reasoning) can be used by Muslims to decide how to apply Islamic principles in the present to particular situations. Many interpretations are much less extreme than the Taliban’s or Saudi Arabia’s and don’t involve beheadings, stoning for adultery or cutting off the hands of thieves (24) – (25).  (I am certainly not advocating Sharia law here, just pointing out that not all Muslims who support Sharia are extremists supporting stoning, beheadings and amputations).

The 2006 poll also showed that 99% of British Muslims believed that the London bombings were wrong and “an atrocity” (26).

Even in the hugely unlikely event of any EU countries having a Muslim majority they might well not implement Sharia law anyway. Neither Bosnia, Kosovo, nor Albania have Sharia law despite having majority Muslim populations ; Nor does Turkey, with an Islamic party having been in government for over a decade.

Even if Turkey were to gain membership of the EU ( which is very unlikely to happen) most Turkish Muslims are less than fundamentalist, drinking alcohol, cutting or shaving their facial hair and eating pork for instance (27).

Immigrants are influenced by societies they move to as much as they influence them -

and current immigration is nothing unprecedented historically

Another dodgy assumption made by the anti-Muslim-ites is that Muslim immigrants and their children and grandchildren and great grandchildren will all remain devout Muslims and will not inter-marry with or be influenced by the non-Muslim majority they live among. This seems highly unlikely based on past waves of immigration such as Irish immigration to the UK in the 17th to 20th centuries (which was often accompanied by hysteria from many Protestants about how this could allow a Catholic takeover, with Catholicism imposed on everyone by the Irish through immigration and high birth rates). Later generations have tended to be less religious and to have smaller families as their education and income levels rose and they had more contact with non-Catholics.  (I’m using the term ‘anti-Muslim-ites’ rather than ‘Islamophobes’ because their beliefs are as prejudiced against all Muslims, as irrational and as full of hatred as anti-Semites’ hatred of all Jews).

The same would seem likely to happen with how religious second and later generations are, though bigots and hate mongers like the British National Party, the English Defence League and Breivik have created a reaction among a minority of European Muslims who have reasserted their identity more forcefully in a refusal to be intimidated. Extreme Bosnian Serb and Croatian nationalist attacks on Muslims in the Bosnian war similarly led to a growth in fundamentalism among a Muslim population who previously were happy to celebrate Christmas and drink alcohol (most still are).

So there is no reason to think that immigration to Europe by Muslims will ‘destroy society’ and lead to the ‘native people’ being overwhelmed any more than many previous waves of immigration. Many of these involved violent raiding, murders, rapes and all out war and invasion by people of different religions (for instance the Celts, Romans and Saxons all worshipped different Gods and had significantly different cultures and languages – and the Normans and Vikings had different languages and cultures from the Anglo-Saxons). The current waves of immigration are non-violent and controlled by EU governments – most violence involved is by immigration officers or private security guards involved in forcible deportations.

The numbers of immigrants are certainly greater than in  the past due to higher global population and birth rates and modern transport, but the technology and organisation of controls on immigration are also more advanced and birth rates have been falling for over a decade even in most of the higher birth rate countries.

The real danger is that the extreme right will either get into government again across Europe through a mixture of irrational hatred of all Muslims and immigrants and mass unemployment and poverty caused by austerity policies; or else mainstream parties will continue to go further and further in adopting the policies of the extreme right to keep power (as many already have), rather than challenge and defeat them by reducing the real cause of the problem – unemployment.

A global extremist ideology with far more believers than Al Qa’ida – and far more influential ones

British journalist and author Melanie Phillips - an exponent of the Islamisation myth and the supposed threat of multiculturalism, quoted at length by Breivik

The Norwegian mass murder Breivik’s ideology is part of a growing global extremist movement with far more believers than Al Qa’ida has ever had, comparable to global anti-Semitism and fascist movements during the Great Depression.

A large minority of European and American politicians and newspaper editors have argued that while Breivik’s actions were insane, his beliefs are valid. For instance Francesco Speroni, Chief Whip of the Italian Northern League party in the Italian parliament and former minister in one of Berlusconi’s coalition governments has said that “Breivik's ideas are in defence of western civilisation”. Speroni is an admirer of the late Oriana Fallaci, an Italian journalist and author who popularised the supposed threat of ‘Eurabia’ – Islamisation and Arabisation of Europe (28).

Italian MEP Mario Borgezio, a member of Prime Minister Berlusconi’s coalition partner party the Northern League, has said that “Some of the ideas he expressed are good, barring the violence. Some of them are great” (29).

Breivik’s condemnation of multiculturalism and the supposed ‘Islamisation of Europe’ echo many articles by right wing American commentators like Daniel Pipes in the US and former Daily Mail columnist Melanie Phillips in the UK. Breivik quoted an entire Phillips article from the Daily Mail in 2009 in his online manifesto. In it Phillips claimed the British Labour party in government had allowed unrestricted immigration (false – there were for instance many deportations of black Zimbabweans back to torture or death at Mugabe’s hands, just as under the Conservatives) and that Labour had done this  in order to deliberately “destroy British society” to get the votes of immigrants (30) – (31).

In 2002 Phillips wrote that “Multiculturalism is predicated on the idea that all faiths are equal; but …if enfeebled Christianity no longer identifies itself as the spiritual pastor of the culture…Islam will move into the vacuum.” And that “The question the multiculturalists have to answer is..: are we a western culture, or are we to become something else? If the latter, who is making the decision to wipe out our national identity? Because if we take in enough people who refuse to assimilate to western values, this belief system will not survive.” (32). She has had many similar rants since on her website here and in her book ‘The World turned upside down’. Surprisingly this book is about how the Muslims and the immigrants are taking over due to political correctness gone maaaad.

Bruce Bawer, the American author of one of many fear-mongering books on ‘Islamisation’ called ‘While Europe Slept: How Radical Islam Is Destroying the West from Within’, had a comment piece published in the Wall Street Journal in which he claimed Breivik had “legitimate concern about genuine problems” such as “the rise of Islam in Europe”. Bawer notes that Breivik had quoted his book 22 times in his online manifesto. (33).

Former senior Republican congressman Newt Gingrich (who is running to be the Republican Presidential candidate) has said that America is in danger of becoming a “secular atheist country, potentially one dominated by radical Islamists and with no understanding of what it once meant to be an American.”. Gingrich is clearly playing to the Islamisation myth here, similarly to Phillips – that if we aren’t all right wing Christian fundamentalists the Muslims will take over - but applied to the US (34).

American politician Pat Buchanan, a former member of the Nixon administration, has also written pieces claiming that the Islamisation of Europe which Breivik fears is a real threat (35). Both Bawer and Buchanan praise Brievik’s supposedly deep knowledge of European culture and history and his “intelligence”.

Breivik also talked online of his contacts with the far right English Defence League which also says it opposes ‘Islamisation’ and ‘multiculturalism’ – and online posts by EDL members said he’d given talks and been to demonstrations with them in the UK (36).

The role of Pamela Geller of the Tea Party wing of the US Republican party in spreading anti-Muslim hatred and opposition to multicultural society in Norway is so great that I’m making a separate post on it, but note here that Breivik often posted on Geller’s blog and read her posts (including one claiming all rapes in the past 5 years in Norway were committed by Muslims) and that Geller held rallies against ‘Islamisation’ and ‘multi-culturalism’ in Norway. Geller also blames “the Euro-Med policy” for “inciting” Breivik.

Murdoch’s Sun newspaper didn’t bother waiting for the facts on the Norway attacks, but went ahead and published a front page claiming it was ‘Norway’s 9/11’ and an ‘Al Qaeda massacre’.

Big parties in government adopting far right rhetoric and policies, strengthening the far right

President Sarkozy’s mass forced deportation of gypsies, who are EU citizens born in the EU, from France, to try to avoid losing votes going to the French National Front, is one chilling example of mainstream parties adopting far right policies (37) – (38). The Nazis and the Vichy French collaborators sent gypsies to the concentration camps along with the Jews during the Second World War.

During mayoral elections in Milan and Naples in May Berlusconi and his favoured candidates made their crackdown on immigrants (especially Muslim ones) and closure of gypsy camps the main theme of their campaign, accusing their challengers of being soft on both. Berlusconi’s favoured candidate in Milan lost heavily this time, but The Guardian reported that :

‘Professor James Walston of the American University of Rome, said he feared Berlusconi's tactics could have a lasting impact on interracial and interfaith relations in Italy. "This type of language has been used by the prime minister, not some neo-fascist maniac on the fringes," he said. "It will be difficult to bring Italian political language back to acceptable European levels."’ (39)

There are some genuine problems with crimes by some gypsies, just as there are some extreme fundamentalists and a tiny number of terrorists among European Muslims, but this does not make prejudice against all gypsies or Muslims acceptable any more than it would be acceptable to blame all white, Christian, Europeans for Breivik’s actions. It’s prejudice and political hate and fear-mongering.

Anti-semitism – hatred of Jews was as widespread and socially acceptable in Europe, Britain, the US and Canada in the 1930s and even during World War Two as prejudice against all Muslims and immigrants is now (40). It was accompanied by hatred of immigrants (many Jewish) and gypsies. It continued even up until the Holocaust was revealed in full after World War Two. Then, too, it was mostly the far right who hated the minorities, not the left, with Communists in London fighting Mosley’s fascist anti-Semitic blackshirts who modelled themselves on the Nazis. While some serious anti-Semitism remains, hatred of Muslims and immigrants has become more common.

Governments claiming ‘multiculturalism has failed’ has boosted the far right

The Conservative party in the UK, including Prime Minister David Cameron, have also pandered to the far right by claiming that “multiculturalism has failed” – a claim echoed by Sarkozy in France and Merkel in Germany (41) – (43). To the bigots and the unemployed who blame them for the loss of their jobs the word ‘multiculturalism’ means two things – allowing foreigners with different skin colours and religions into our countries and allowing them to marry Christians and white people. Breivik shot dozens of teenagers dead to punish them for supporting ‘multiculturalism’.

Nick Griffin, the leader of the neo-fascist British National Party, was over-joyed at Cameron’s speech, calling it “A further huge leap for our ideas into the political mainstream” and adding that “A few years ago we had the then Labour Home Secretary David Blunkett admitting that ‘multiculturalism has failed” (44).

 It has not failed though. People of different religions and races can mostly get on with each other, do business, be friends, marry one another and influence each other culturally as equals – and both sides tend to learn and gain from the interaction, getting the best ideas and traditions from each culture. The alternative is a slide towards defining only white Christians as being true Europeans – and that has led to genocide and world wars in the past.

To be fair what Cameron, Sarkozy, Merkel and Blunkett mean by 'multiculturalism' is different cultures, religions or races living entirely separately from one another, but this is more the result of unemployment leading to less contact between communities than of any new failure to integrate. It also fails to take into account the fact that past waves of immigrants have taken time to integrate into society as their children, grandchildren and great grandchildren come into more contact with people of religions and cultures different from their parents. Some of the same politicians talking about the problems of 'multiculturalism' have also strengthened it by supporting faith based schools which hinder the normal process of integration through going to the same schools. Encouraging integration by offering e.g free English classes and community centres and evening classes is fine, but the idea that people should be 'made' to integrate is verging on fascism. How much or how little people want to be involved with others and in what ways are up to them, whether they're immigrants or not. The same goes for imposing one version of what it means to be British or French or German on everyone and demanding they all adopt it.

Though we could yet avoid it, we are risking heading towards a situation like the one in the Great Depression where anti-Semitism against Jewish immigrants and hatred of gypsies combined with austerity policies to lead to fascism, though this time the targets of opportunity for the hate mongers are Muslims and immigrants.

The far right switch targets of opportunity – from Jews to Muslims

The leader of the British National Party and a second candidate – Andrew Brons – were elected as members of the European Parliament in 2008. Griffin had previously written of the “courage” and “sacrifice” of the Waffen SS and in 1998 told a court that the Holocaust never happened and was a mixture of “lies” and propaganda”, while Brons had been a member of the British National Socialist Movement and used to chant “death to Jews” at rallies (45) – (47).

After September 11th though Griffin and his party renounced those views, realising that it was now more popular to spread hatred of Muslims than to spread hatred of Jews. The party changed it’s rules to allow Jews to become members and reversed it’s rhetoric on Israel from unthinking hatred to unthinking and unconditional support for the Israeli government, including Griffin boasting of his support for the Israeli ‘Operation Cast Lead’ which killed over a thousand civilians.

Similarly Gianfranco Fini, who  between 2001 And 2004 held the posts of Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister in the Italian government, was famous in the 1980s through to 1994 for his proud boast that his MSI (Italian Social Movement) party was a fascist party led by the proud heirs of Mussolini who “was the greatest Italian statesman of the twentieth century”.

Yet by 2003 Fini had travelled to Israel to apologise for the shameful way Italian Jews were sent to the German concentration camps by Mussolini’s fascists – and in 2009, as President of the Italian parliament, Fini said that protesters in Turin burning Israeli flags was “far more serious” than a neo-fascist gang beating a man to death (48).

This is clearly more political opportunism than any kind of change of beliefs at work. When challenged during a BBC debate on his past Holocast denial, Griffin merely answered “I can't tell you why I used to say those things anymore than I can tell you why I have changed my mind” (49). I think I can. After September 11th it became more popular to blame all Muslims for the actions of Al Qa’ida than to try to blame all Jews for some of the actions of the Israeli government and military, so Muslims became the new targets of opportunity along with immigrants and gypsies.

The Real Threats to Democracy – Mass unemployment caused by neo-liberal economic and public spending policies combined with scapegoating of immigrants and religious minorities – just as in the 1930s

British fascist leader Oswald Mosley and his Nazi style blackshirts in London during the Great Depression of the 1930s

The real threat to democracy and European and national values of tolerance comes from the extreme right and the growing belief in the myths that they spread. This is made worse by mainstream parties seeming to give credibility to many of these myths by competing to by “tougher on immigration”, by their demands that European Muslims “deal with the extremists in their midst” as though Muslims were all responsible for Al Qa’ida (note no similar calls for Christians to sort out the extreme fundamentalists in their midst after the Norwegian attack by a Christian extremist) and by their constant references to the British National Party and other hard right extremists as if they were the only alternative to the big parties, ignoring Green parties, socialists, Independent candidates and others.

It would be interesting to see a poll of non-Muslims in the UK, Norway or Europe on how many sympathise with the motives of the Norwegian lunatic and how many think his actions were justified. Given the levels of support for the BNP, the English Defence League and others the results would probably give much more cause for concern.

Geert Wilders extreme right ‘Freedom Party’ in the Netherlands won more seats than one of the major parties – the Christian Democrats – in a 2010 election campaign run with adverts showing women clad in burkhas getting pensions before white Dutch women, who were left with none (50).

This threat is made more serious by mass unemployment, welfare cuts and 1930s style austerity policies which risk a second recession. Unemployment, not immigration, has always been the main factor boosting support for the hard right.

When the last textile factories in the North of England closed in the late 90s there were race riots in the towns of Oldham, Bradford and Burnley where the factories had been - and the vote of the BNP rose, getting them several council seats (51) – (52). After the current recession the BNP increased its vote and had MEPs elected for the first time in the UK and since the 2010 elections in the Netherlands the government is reliant on the ‘Freedom Party’ for majorities in votes.

Sarkozy’s government in France and Berlusconis in Italy have also become increasingly anti-immigration in their policies and rhetoric and neo-fascist parties like Fini’s ‘Future and Freedom’ party have been part of the governing coalition in Italy for most of the period since1994.

The current rise of the far right parallels the rise of the Nazis in German during the Great Depression (pointed out by Aneurin Bevan in his book ‘In Place of Fear’ which my blog is named after), in terms of free trade and reduced welfare and public sector employment having led to rising unemployment, with minority religious groups and immigrants used as scapegoats, leading to the rise of the far right.

 Bevan showed that the vote for the Nazi party in Germany from 1924 to 1933 rose and fell as the numbers of unemployed did (Bevan 1952 – Chapter 1, note I). In the 1928 elections when unemployment was around 1.3 million the Nazis won only 12 seats in the Reichstag. In 1932 when unemployment had risen to 5.6 million they became the largest party with 230 seats. (Unemployment figures are from Bevan, election results from this BBC history page) (53) – (54).

Current austerity policies in Europe and Republican party obstruction of Obama’s and the Democrats’ attempts to create some kind of new New Deal to create jobs and economic growth again are risking not only a second recession but also boosting the far right again as a result of even higher unemployment. We have to put pressure on our governments to change policy in case they end up repeating the mistakes of the 1930s.


Sources

(1) = Telegraph 08 Aug 2009 ‘Muslim Europe: the demographic time bomb transforming our continent’,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/5994047/Muslim-Europe-the-demographic-time-bomb-transforming-our-continent.html

(2) = New York Sun 11 Jun 2004 ‘Muslim Europe’ by Daniel Pipes,http://www.danielpipes.org/1796/muslim-europe

(3) = National Interest March-April 2007 ‘Europe's Stark Options’,http://www.danielpipes.org/4323/europes-stark-options

(4) =Jerusalem Post 03 Jan 2008 ‘Will Europe Resist Islamization?’,http://www.danielpipes.org/5503/will-europe-resist-islamization

(5) = Restvradrini.com 11 Apr 2011 ‘Daniel Pipes: “You can’t fight Islamism with ideas coming out of Europe”’,http://www.revistadrini.com/2011/04/02/daniel-pipes-you-cant-fight-islamism-with-ideas-coming-out-of-europe-3/

(6) = Channel 4 news 25 jul 2011 ‘Norway gunman claims two more terror cells exist’,http://www.channel4.com/news/norway-gunman-to-appear-in-court ; ‘Arriving to angry scenes after Norway had observed a minute's silence to honour the dead, Breivik said his fight was against "cultural Marxism" and a Muslim takeover of Europe. He added that his objective was "to give a sharp signal to the people" and to make the Labour party pay "the price of their treason."’

(7) = Channel 4 news 23 jul 2011 ‘Norway attacks Anders Behring Breivik profile’, http://www.channel4.com/news/oslo-attacks-anders-behring-breivik-profile ; ‘ Other posts under Breivik's name criticise European policies of trying to accommodate the cultures of different ethnic groups, and claim a significant minority of young British Muslims back radical Islamic militancy…. In one posting he called for the establishment of a "Norwegian EDL" and he claims to have had contact with it and another far-right organisation, Stop the Islamification of Europe’

(8) = Channel 4 News 24 Jul 2011 ‘Norwegian gunman tells police he acted alone’, http://www.channel4.com/news/norwegian-gunman-tells-police-he-acted-alone ; ‘He also attacked "the Islamic colonisation and Islamisation of Western Europe" and "rise of cultural Marxism/multiculturalism".’

The facts and figures on Muslim vs non-Muslim immigration and birth rates in Europe

 (9) = Daily Mail 13 Sep 2008 ‘'Have more babies and Muslims can take over the UK' hate fanatic says, as warning comes that 'next 9/11 will be in UK'’, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1054909/Have-babies-Muslims-UK-hate-fanatic-says-warning-comes-9-11-UK.html

(10) = Pew Research Center 27 Jan 2011 ‘The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Projections for 2010-2030 ; region – Europe’ , http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-europe.aspx ; See second graphic – ‘Europe - Muslims as a share of overall population 1999 – 2030’

(11) = Pew Research Center 27 Jan 2011 ‘The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Projections for 2010-2030 ; region – Europe’ , http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-europe.aspx ; See third graphic – ‘Europe – Annual Population growth rates for Muslims and non-Muslims’

(12) = Pew Research Center 27 Jan 2011 ‘The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Projections for 2010-2030 ; region – Europe’ , http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-europe.aspx ; See thirteenth graphic (below sub-heading ‘Migration’) – ‘Europe – Net Muslim migration to selected countries 2010’

(13) = BBC News 13 Aug 2008 ‘Q&A: EU immigration policy’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7667169.stm

(14) = Tomas Frejka, Jan Michael Hoem, Laurent Toulemon, Tomas Sobotka (editors) (2009) ‘Childbearing trends and policies in Europe, Volume 1’ in Demographic Research , Vol 19, Articles I – X, pages 11 & 231,http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=dUHXPHaZE6cC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false (on the fact that  all immigrants having higher fertility levels than existing citizens of the EU and on convergence of birth rates between the two over time due to immigrant birth rate falling)

(15) = Nadja Milewski (2010) ‘Immigration fertility in west Germany : Is there a socialisation effect in transition to second and third births’,http://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/files/peer/Peer_184-2010-11-11.pdf

(16) = Thomas Sobotka (2007) ‘Overview Chapter 7: The rising importance of migrants for childbearing in Europe’, in Demographic Research 1 Jul 2008 (VOLUME 19 - ARTICLE 9, pages 225 – 248, http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/9/

(17) = Joop Garssen & Han Nicolaas (2008) ‘Fertility of Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands: Adjustment to native level within one generation’, in  Demographic Research 18 Jul 2008 (vol 19 article 33, pages 1249 – 1280) , http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/33/

(18) = BBC radio 4 ‘Disproving the Muslim Demographics sums’ 07 Aug 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8189434.stm ;  (relates to claims made by Geert Wilders’ Freedom party in the Netherlands on Muslim birth rates there)

(19) = Mary Mederios Kent (2008) ‘Do Muslims Have More Children Than Other Women in Western Europe?’ in Population Bureau February 2008,http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/muslimsineurope.aspx

(20) = Time 15 Feb 2011 ‘After Revolution, Italy Faces Flood of Tunisian Migrants’, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2049216,00.html#ixzz1UTuIVWT3

(21) = EU Business 20 Mar 2011 ‘Libya suspends help on illegal EU immigration’,http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/libya-unrest.95w/

(22) = Migration Policy Institute 2010 ‘Migration and Immigrants Two Years after the Financial Collapse: Where Do We Stand?’,http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/MPI-BBCreport-2010.pdf

Most European Muslims are not extreme fundamentalists

(23) = Telegraph 19 Feb 2006  ‘Poll reveals 40pc of Muslims want sharia law in UK’,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1510866/Poll-reveals-40pc-of-Muslims-want-sharia-law-in-UK.html

(24) = Council on Foreign Relations 10 Nov 2010 ‘Islam: Governing Under Sharia’,http://www.cfr.org/religion/islam-governing-under-sharia/p8034#p2

(25) United States Institute of Peace & The Center for Study of Islam and Democracy ‘Itjihad – Reinterpreting Islamic Principles for the 21st Century’, http://www.usip.org/files/resources/sr125.pdf

(26) = See (22) above

(27) = BBC News 06 Feb 2009 ‘Turkish contradictions test Islam’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7873081.stm

A global extremist ideology with far more believers than Al Qa’ida – and far more influential ones

(28) = guardian.co.uk 27 Jul 2011 ‘Ex-Berlusconi minister defends Anders Behring Breivik’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/27/ex-berlusconi-minister-defends-breivik

(29) = BBC News 27 Jul 2011 ‘Italy MEP backs ideas of Norway killer Breivik’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14315108

(30) = See (2) to (5) above

(31) = Independent 26 Jul 2011 ‘The right-wing columnists in killer's 'manifesto'’,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/the-rightwing-columnists-in-killers-manifesto-2325918.html

(32) = The Spectator Magazine 11 May 2002 ‘How the West was Lost’ by Melanie Phillips,http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/all/9980/part_6/how-the-west-was-lost.thtml

(33) = Wall Street Journal 25 Jul 2011 ‘Inside the Mind of the Oslo Murderer’, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903999904576465801154130960.html?mod=WSJ_article_comments#articleTabs%3Darticle

(34) = CBS News 27 Mar 2011 ‘Newt Gingrich warns U.S. at risk of atheism and radical Islam’, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20048494-503544.html

(35) = CNSNews.com 26 Jul 2011 ‘Pat Buchanan: A Fire Bell in the Night for Norway’, http://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/article/pat-buchanan-fire-bell-night-norway

(36) = guardian.co.uk 26 Jul 2011 ‘Anders Behring Breivik had links to far-right EDL, says anti-racism group’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/26/anders-behring-breivik-edl-searchlight

Big parties in government adopting far right rhetoric and policies, strengthening the far right

(37) = BBC News 20 Aug 2010 ‘France sends Roma Gypsies back to Romania’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11020429

(38) = Guardian.co.uk 19 Aug 2010 ‘France pushes forward Roma deportations: 'They are trying to get rid of us all'’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/19/france-begins-roma-deportations

(39) = guardian.co.uk 30 May 2011 ‘Silvio Berlusconi faces humiliation as Milan voters support leftwing mayor’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/30/silvio-berlusconi-defeat-in-milan

(40) = Aaron Goldman (1984) ‘The Resurgence of Antisemitism in Britain during World War II’, in ‘Jewish Social Studies’, Vol. 46, No. 1 (Winter, 1984), pp. 37-50 , http://www.jstor.org/stable/4467242

Governments claiming ‘multiculturalism has failed’ has boosted the far right

(41) = BBC News 07 Feb 2011 ‘State multiculturalism has failed, says David Cameron’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12371994

(42) = BBC News 11 Feb 2011 ‘Sarkozy declares multiculturalism "a failure"’,http://www.france24.com/en/20110210-multiculturalism-failed-immigration-sarkozy-live-broadcast-tf1-france-public-questions

(43) = BBC News 17 Oct 2010 ‘Merkel says German multicultural society has failed’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11559451

(44) = British National Party 05 Feb 2011 ‘Cameron’s ‘War on Multiculturalism’ Speech – Another Milestone in the ‘Griffinisation’ of British Politics’, http://www.bnp.org.uk/news/cameron%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%98war-multiculturalism%E2%80%99-speech-%E2%80%93-another-milestone-%E2%80%98griffinisation%E2%80%99-british-politics

The far right switch targets of opportunity – from Jews to Muslims

(45) = Daily Mail 25 May 2009 ‘Family of Winston Churchill slams BNP over far-right party's attempt to hijack wartime leader's legacy’, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1187368/Family-Winston-Churchill-slams-BNP-far-right-partys-attempt-hijack-wartime-leaders-legacy.html

(46) = BBC 25 Nov 2000 ‘Panorama : Under the Skin’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/programmes/2001/bnp_special/roots/1998.stm ; Griffin told a court in 1998 that “I am well aware that the orthodox opinion is that 6 million Jews were gassed and cremated and turned into lampshades. Orthodox opinion also once held that the world is flat... I have reached the conclusion that the 'extermination' tale is a mixture of Allied wartime propaganda, extremely profitable lie, and latter witch-hysteria."

(47) = Telegraph 09 Jun 2009 ‘European elections 2009: BNP Andrew Brons profile’, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/5478006/European-elections-2009-BNP-Andrew-Brons-profile.html

(48) = Time 06 May 2008 ‘Italian Rightist Sparks Outrage’,http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1737829,00.html ; ‘Gianfranco Fini, the president of the Italian Parliament, is facing a firestorm of controversy after saying that the May 1 burning of Israeli flags in Turin by far-left protesters was "much more serious" than the savage beating of a 29-year-old that same day in Verona by a neo-Nazi gang. The victim of the beating, Nicola Tommasoli, died late Monday after several days in a coma.’

(49) = BBC News 22 Oct 2009 ‘Angry scenes face Griffin at BBC’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8321157.stm

The Real Threats to Democracy – Mass unemployment caused by neo-liberal economic and public spending policies combined with scapegoating of immigrants and religious minorities – just as in the 1930s

(50) = BBC News 23 Jun 2011 ‘Netherlands Islam Freedom: Profile of Geert Wilders’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11443211

(51) = BBC News 03 July 2001 ‘Race riot town seeks answers’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1420334.stm

(52) = Guardian 04 May 2002 ‘Gains by far right but relief for ministers’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2002/may/04/localgovelections.politics

(53) = Aneurin Bevan (1952) ‘ In Place of Fear’ Quartet Books, London, 1990, Chapter 1, note I, page 31

(54) = BBC GCSE bitesize ‘History – Hitler’s rise to power’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/history/mwh/germany/hitlerpowerrev1.shtml