There is no agreement between Mubarak's people and the democratic opposition - and there are no divisions among the protesters

Mubarak’s dictatorship are trying to give the impression that they have negotiated an agreement between Mubarak’s Vice President Omar Suleiman and the democracy protesters and opposition parties. They haven’t. The only agreement is among Mubarak’s NDP party to try to give the impression they’re making progress towards democracy.

Ayman Nour of the El Ghad party has said there has been no agreement between Suleiman’s people and the protesters, as has Mohamed ElBaradei (contradicting the impression given by the Egyptian dictatorship that ElBaradei’s representative was a party to the ‘agreement’). El Baradei said “Nobody knows who is talking to whom at this stage. It's managed by Vice-President Suleiman. It is all managed by the military and that is part of the problem”

Abdel Monem Aboul Fotouh of the Muslim Brotherhood, said the government statement “does not include any solid changes.”

The Egyptian opposition continue to demand that Mubarak step down before negotiations begin on the formation of a National Unity government to organise the re-drafting of the constitution and hold free and fair elections – and for the Unity government to be in power for at least a year before elections to allow them to ensure they’re not rigged by Mubarak’s NDP like they have been in the past.

Since Mubarak has rigged every election he’s overseen in the last 30 years – and jailed even the candidates of parties he hadn’t banned (such as Nour), this is not an unreasonable demand.

The “Council of Wise Men” who are meant to be acting as intermediaries between Mubarak and the opposition are Mubarak’s people -  academics from the Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, the President of which , Abdel Monem Ali Sayed,  is a member of Mubarak’s ‘National Democratic Party’. (credit here to ‘The Angry Arab News Service’ for spotting this)

There is no mention of torture or jail without trial for the opposition in any of the Al Ahram center’s online commentaries – and none of election rigging either (though to be fair, if there was, they’d have been sacked and probably in prison themselves by now).

The only noteworthy concessions offered by Suleiman in the statement released on the “agreement” have been an end to the state of emergency which has existed since the assassination of Sadat in 1973; the freeing of all political prisoners and a guarantee that they will be allowed to be politically active without limitations. Whether these will be implemented or not is another question.

There are statements about the establishment of various committees to amend the constitution (not to write a new one)– but how the membership of them is to be decided and by who is left vague.

There are also various ominous statements such as “Pursuit of corruption, and an investigation into those behind the breakdown of security in line with the law”, “Restoring the security and stability of the nation, and tasking the police forces to resume their role in serving and protecting the people.” And “All participants expressed their absolute rejection of any and all forms of foreign intervention in internal Egyptian affairs.”

These are ominous because the police have been the main instigators of violence and because they echo Mubarak propaganda about ElBaradei being an American, the protests being organised by “foreigners”including Israelis and attacks by Mubarak supporters on foreign journalists and Egyptian protesters for being “foreign agents”.

The intention of the statement is probably to allow foreign governments (especially the US government) to present it to their publics as evidence of progress towards democracy – and to try to give the impression that the opposition is too divided for negotiations to succeed (when the actual problem is that the opposition are united in demanding Mubarak step down and allow a national unity government, while Mubarak and his henchmen like Suleiman refuse).

 

Main sources

The Washington Post 5 Feb 2011 ‘For cautious Mubarak, change became overwhelming’,http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/05/AR2011020503867.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2011020402531 ; see page 2, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/05/AR2011020503867_2.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2011020402531

Reuters 05 Feb 2011 ‘Opposition divided ahead of talks with Egypt's VP’,  http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41439419/ns/world_news-mideast/n_africa/

Bloomberg 06 Feb 2011 ‘Suleiman, Egypt Opposition Agree to Form Panel for Constitutional Changes’,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-06/suleiman-egypt-opposition-agree-to-form-panel-for-constitutional-changes.html

Guardian News Blog – Egypt Protests 06 Feb 2011 3.46p.m, http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2011/feb/06/egypt-hosni-mubarak#block-26 , statement from Suleiman's office

Guardian News Blog – Egypt Protests 06 Feb 2011, 5.03 p.m summary,http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2011/feb/06/egypt-hosni-mubarak#block-28#block-30

Guardian.co.uk 06 Feb 2011 ‘Egyptian opposition cautious after vice-president Suleiman opens talks’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/06/egypt-omar-suleiman-talks-opposition

Guardian.co.uk 05 Feb 2011 ‘Egypt: Why 25 January will be a date enshrined in the country's history’, by Ayman Nour and Wael Nawara,http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/05/egypt-rebirth-of-a-nation?INTCMP=SRCH

Bloomberg 06 Feb 2011 ‘Egypt’s Treaty With Israel Is ‘Rock Solid,’ ElBaradei Says , http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-06/egypt-s-treaty-with-israel-is-rock-solid-elbaradei-says.html ; ‘ElBaradei urged “a year of transition or a government of national unity, of caretaker government that prepares properly for free and fair election,” speaking on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS” program. “I think any election in the next coming of months before the right people establish parties and engage, it will be again a fake -- a fake democracy.”’

Egyptians don't trust Mubarak to oversee transition - and even if the Muslim Brotherhood took power they couldn't be worse than the dictatorship

Egyptians couldn’t be worse off under the Muslim Brotherhood than they are under Mubarak – and the Brotherhood may well neither form a single party government, nor be extreme in government.

They are not the only opposition in Egypt either – Mubarak has targeted trade unionists for opposing him – and was so afraid of Ayman Nour -  a liberal candidate in the last (rigged) Presidential elections he had him jailed to ensure he couldn’t win the election.

Mubarak's recent statement is unlikely to be accepted by the opposition (1). As their spokesman Mohamed ElBaradei had said before it “The American government cannot ask the Egyptian people to believe that a dictator who has been in power for 30 years would be the one to implement democracy. This is a farce.”(2)

Photo: Mohamed ElBaradei - photo from The Independent

The widespread view that Egyptians might be worse off if Mubarak’s dictatorship is overthrown and the Muslim Brotherhood come to power is misplaced. Reports by Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International show that under Mubarak for 30 years the Egyptian people have been jailed without trial, tortured by beatings, electric shocks and sexual violence. The victims include many children (3) – (4).

So even if the Muslim Brotherhood were to come to power in Egypt and turn into a Sunni equivalent of Iran’s semi-theocratic government, Egyptians would be no worse off than they have been under dictatorship – just as Iranians are no worse off (though little better off) under the semi-theocracy they have now than they were under the Shah’s dictatorship – and Mubarak’s past actions show he sees liberals and trade unionists as just as much a threat to his rule as the Muslim Brotherhood.

Propping up Mubarak’s dictatorship will not make it less likely that they will come to power either – just as President Carter backing the Shah’s dictatorship in Iran in 1979 to the last moment did not prevent Khomeini coming to power (5) – (6).

In fact a peaceful transition to democracy, with Mubarak persuaded to step down, would make it less likely that any one faction or party could exclude others from Egyptian politics.

Both Professor Fawaz A. Gerges in his book ‘The Far Enemy’ and ‘Self Inflicted Wounds’, a report produced for the US military, found that the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic political parties are enemies of Al Qa’ida and other Jihadist terrorist groups, who consider them to be apostates for taking part in what the Jihadists see as the western system of political parties and elections (7) – (9).

Professor Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics, expert on jihadist terrorist groups

The same sources found that the Brotherhood broke with the extreme teachings of Qtub long ago (10).

Other Islamic parties elected to power around the world have shown themselves to be no friends of Al Qa’ida and not nearly so extreme as the Taliban. Hamas after winning the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections have fought gun battles against allies of Al Qa’ida in the Gaza strip (11). The AKP Islamic party government in Turkey has won two elections, governed for 8 years, continued to hold free and fair elections and accept their results even when it lost many seats in local elections ; and has been no more extreme than European Christian Democrat parties. After Al Qa’ida bombed the British consulate and banks in Turkey, the AKP government arrested, tried and jailed those responsible (12) – (14).

Even the Afghan Taliban has distanced itself from Al Qa’ida after the latter brought a US invasion down on their heads (15).

No doubt the Brotherhood would be a major political force in Egypt after Mubarak. There is no way to know whether they would win elections as the sole governing party, by part of a governing coalition or become the main opposition party – but that is because many Egyptians support them.

Propping up dictatorships has only strengthened fundamentalist parties and much worse terrorist groups.

If we want to weaken Al Qa’ida and reduce fundamentalism then allowing a transition to democracy in Arab countries is the way forward.

The Brotherhood are not the only political force in Egypt either. There are socialists, trade unions, liberals, greens and even conservatives and nationalists who oppose the dictatorship (16) – (18).

In the last Egyptian Presidential elections (rigged as usual) in 2005 the candidate Mubarak feared most was not the Muslim Brotherhood’s (which he banned), but Ayman Nour of the liberal El Ghad party, who he had jailed during the election and then tried and convicted on trumped up charges after it, to ensure he couldn’t lose the election to him (19) – (22).

Ayman Nour of the liberal El Ghad party was jailed for standing against Mubarak in the 2005 presidential elections and only released in 2009 - photo - Time magazine

 All these groups, along with the Brotherhood, have accepted former UN IAEA head Mohamed El Baradei, a liberal rather than an Islamic fundamentalist, as the chief spokesperson for all of them (23).

Muslim Brotherhood spokesman Kamel el-Helbawy hardly talks like a new Khomeini either, having recently said

“A new era of freedom and democracy is dawning in the Middle East and Arab world. That's more important than declaring that a 'new Islamist era is dawning', because I know Islamists would not be able to rule Egypt alone. We should and would co-operate – Muslims, leftists, communists, socialists, secularists…. …….Dictators like Mubarak have always told the west, wrongly, there is no difference between Islamists like the Brotherhood and some violent groups who are real fundamentalists………The west is always afraid that if the Brotherhood came to power it would end freedoms or do something [negative] with Israel. But I stress that the Brotherhood are among the people who defend democracy in full, and like to see democracy prevailing, because democracy gives them some of their rights." (24)

Kamal Helbaway of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood

So, whether Helbawy means what he says or not, if the worst case scenario happens and the Brotherhood take power in Egypt, Egyptians will no worse off than they were under Mubarak – and the worst case scenario may not happen – they may end up much better off in a democratic system that includes the Brotherhood as one political party among many.

The Guardian also reports that “The Brotherhood has said it would put the Camp David peace accords with Israel to a referendum if it took power.”(25)

The Brotherhood are also criticised for the threat they supposedly pose to Israel and their links to Hamas, whose armed wing has been involved in terrorism against Israeli civilians.

The problem with this argument is that Mubarak has links to the Israeli government, which is involved in ordering and authorising the killing of Palestinian civilians on a daily basis (26) – (30).

The US government both funds much of the Israeli occupation and has been involved in it’s own war crimes including targeting civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan (31) – (32).

So the Brotherhood’s critics really don’t have a leg to stand on on this issue – if it was close to Hamas it would be doing nothing they themselves don’t do on a larger scale.

(1) = BBC News Middle East ‘Huge protests fan Egypt unrest’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

(2) = Reuters 30 Jan 2011 ‘ElBaradei urges U.S. to abandon Mubarak’, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/30/us-egypt-usa-elbaradei-idUSTRE70T30920110130?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

(3) = Human Rights Watch 25 Feb 2004 ‘Egypt’s Torture Epidemic’, http://www.hrw.org/en/reports/2004/02/25/egypt-s-torture-epidemic

(4) = Amnesty International World Report 2010 – Country Report – Egypt,http://report2010.amnesty.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa and http://report2010.amnesty.org/sites/default/files/AIR2010_AZ_EN.pdf#page=77

(5) = Lawrence Freedman (2008) ‘A Choice of Enemies’, Weidenfield & Nicolson, London, 2008, Chapter 4, especially pages 64 - 72

(6) = Kenneth M. Pollack ‘The Persian Puzzle’, Random House, New York, 2005, chapters 4 – 6

(7) = Fawaz A Gerges (2005) ‘The Far Enemy – Why Jihad Went Global’, Cambridge University Press, New York, 2005, pages 9 -10 (on torture and dictatorship radicalising people into terrorists and jihadists), pages 110- 116 – on Jihadist/terrorist groups and Islamic fundamentalist political parties hating and despising one another (and Bin Laden’s deputy Zawahiri hating the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood); pages 93 -4 on torture of Zawahiri by Egyptian dictatorship leading him to join Al Qa’ida to build organisation to take revenge

(8) = Assaf Moghadam & Brian Fishman (editors) 16 Dec 2010 ‘Self-inflicted wounds : Debates and divisions within Al Qa’ida and it’s periphery’, Harmony Project, Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, http://www.ctc.usma.edu/Self-Inflicted%20Wounds.pdf ; see especially pages 158 - 162 - or 168 to 173 if looking at the pdf browser's page count

(9) = Loretta Napoleoni (2005) ‘Insurgent Iraq’ Constable & Robinson, London, 2005, Chapter 3 (pages 61 – 62 of paperback edition)

(10) = See (5) to (7) above

(11) = Observer 16 Aug 2009 ‘Hamas destroys al-Qaida group in violent Gaza battle’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/aug/15/hamas-battle-gaza-islamists-al-qaida

(12) = Justice and Development Party (Turkey), http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_and_Development_Party_%28Turkey%29

(13) = BBC News 30 Mar 2009 ‘Turkish PM's party slips in polls’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7970448.stm

(14) = Guardian 17 Jan 2007 ‘Turkey jails al-Qaida cell for consulate bomb’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/17/turkey.alqaida

(15) = CNN 06 Oct 2008 ‘Sources: Taliban split with al Qaeda, seek peace’,http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/10/06/afghan.saudi.talks/#cnnSTCText

(16) = Wikipedia list of Egyptian political parties,http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Egypt#The_known_parties_of_Egypt

(17) = Amnesty USA 27 Jan 2011 ‘Egyptian Protests Day 3: Next Steps’, http://blog.amnestyusa.org/middle-east/egyptian-protests-day-3-next-steps/ - ‘This was a protest that crossed class, ideology and religion’

(18) = Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 17 Feb 2010 ‘Labor Protest Politics and Worker Rights in Egypt’, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/?fa=eventDetail&id=2816

(19) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayman_Nour

(20) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El-Ghad_Party

(21) = Human Rights Watch Sep 2005 ‘From Plebiscite to Contest? Egypt’s Presidential Election’, http://www.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/mena/egypt0905/egypt0905.pdf

(22) = Human Rights Watch 6 Dec 2005 ‘Egypt: Ayman Nur Trial Badly Flawed’, http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2005/12/06/egypt-ayman-nur-trial-badly-flawed

(23) = Reuters 30 Jan 2011 ‘ElBaradei urges U.S. to abandon Mubarak’, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/30/us-egypt-usa-elbaradei-idUSTRE70T30920110130?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

(24) = guardian.co.uk 30 Jan 2011 ‘Egypt protests: Cairo prison break prompts fear of fundamentalism’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/30/muslim-brotherhood-jail-escape-egypt

(25) = See (22) above

(26) = See page link below and sources listed for it,http://www.duncanmcfarlane.org/Israel-Palestine/notdemocratsversusterrorists/

(27) = See page link below and sources 21 to 45 listed on ithttp://www.duncanmcfarlane.org/sevenliesthatkill/index.html

(28) = Amnesty International 2010 annual report – Israel and the occupied territories,http://report2010.amnesty.org/sites/default/files/AIR2010_AZ_EN.pdf#page=129

(29) = Times 29 Jul 2008 ‘Palestinian child shot dead by Israeli soldiers’,http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article4425395.ece

(30) Herald (Scotland) 14 Feb 2009 ‘Long-term truce for Gaza near agreement, says Hamas’,http://www.heraldscotland.com/long-term-truce-for-gaza-near-agreement-says-hamas-1.902709 ‘In the West Bank city of Hebron, staff at a local hospital said a teenage boy was killed by Israeli army fire during a clash between troops and stone-throwing Palestinian youths…Doctors at Alia hospital named the dead boy as Izzadine Jamal, 14. They did not know if he was among those attacking the Israelis….The army said dozens of Palestinians hurled stones at a military guard tower next to an Israeli settlement and a soldier shot the ringleader.’

(31) = See links below and sources listed on them on war crimes including targeting civilians in Iraq,http://www.duncanmcfarlane.org/who%27s_right_on_Iraq/bothsides/ and http://www.duncanmcfarlane.org/replytogray/Iraq/

(32) = See links below and sources listed on them on similar actions by US forces in Afghanistan,http://inplaceoffear.blogspot.com/2010/03/one-more-push-for-what-in-afghanistan.html and http://inplaceoffear.blogspot.com/2010/08/killings-of-civilians-by-nato-forces-in.html