Obama’s caution on Syria may show he doesn’t want Sunni extremists including Al Qa’ida winning the Syrian civil war any more than he wants Assad to win it. Cameron may foolishly disagree, but the majority of British MPs will stop him

While the amusingly named and poorly informed Marko Attila Hoare has joined Tony Blair and John McCain in calling for Libyan style regime change in Syria, President Obama does not seem enthusiastic, possibly realising that,  as it turned out in Libya, a complete victory for either side would be a bad thing not only for NATO government’s interests but for Syrians too.

The Obama administration has poured cold water on David Cameron’s proposal of a no-fly zone in Syria and said its only providing arms to get Assad to negotiate. Obama may well not want total victory for Syrian rebel Sunni Jihadists who include Al Qa’ida any more than for Assad (1) – (2).

A no-fly zone might not be a bad thing, if it was actually just a no-fly zone only used to stop Assad’s air-force attacking civilians and not used, as in Libya, to let NATO air-forces bomb in support of rebel offensives – and if Syria didn’t have relatively advanced Russian MIG fighters and anti-aircraft missile systems – and if Russia wasn’t hinting at World War Three breaking out if NATO tries it(3).

Obama likely knows that as soon as a no-fly zone is established the hawks (or head-bangers) like Cameron and McCain will then try to use it the way it was used in Libya though.

The US has already been co-operating with the Saudis, Turkey, France, Jordan, Britain and Croatia to arm the rebels by proxy since 2011 and greatly stepped up flights since late 2012, but they've not sent any heavy weapons or hand held anti-aircraft missiles because they know the rebels include Al Nusrah/Al Qa'ida and pretty much all the rebels are Sunni Islamists likely to be hostile to NATO governments if they do manage to overthrow Assad (4) – (6).

Much of the arms and training provided have been conditional on the groups receiving them using them against Al Nusrah and its Iraqi Al Qa'ida allies in Syria (7). While some of the weapons provided by the NATO-Saudi-Jordanian network have got into the hands of Al Nusrah (Al Qa’ida’s Syrian branch) this still suggests Obama is at least as concerned about defeating Al Qa’ida in Syria as defeating Assad (8).

The chances of “moderate” rebels (and that’s a very relative term in Syria) being able to win such a two front war are slim though.

Obama may have looked at the results of regime change in Iraq and then Libya - chaotic sectarian/racist civil wars in which Islamist militias and Al Qa'ida are running riot.

This may be why he opposed sending any direct US military aid until after the full of Qusayr Since then he has authorised only small arms excluding hand held surface to air missiles again.

This is treated by the media as a big change – since the Saudis were already providing small arms and anti-tank weapons with CIA co-ordination, it’s merely a symbolic change.

If he was foolish enough to send hand-held anti-aircraft weapons it wouldn’t be long before Al Qa’ida brought down a US passenger plane with one and the same Republicans (and Democrats) who’d called on him to provide the rebels with them were demanding to know why he had been so irresponsible as to let them get into the hands of Al Qaeda or other Sunni extremists.

It may be that Obama hopes to arm the less extreme rebels to try to defeat both Assad and Al Qa’ida/Nusrah simultaneously. Or it may be that he would prefer a bloody stalemate to either side winning. Or maybe he wants to force Assad to go by arming the rebels and through sanctions. Or he may mean exactly what he says – that he prefers a negotiated political settlement to either side winning by force.

Here in the UK Prime Minister David Cameron first proposed arming the rebels. He successfully prevented a continuation of the EU embargo on arms to either side in Syria.

However his own backbench MPs then demanded a parliamentary vote before any decision by the British government to arm the rebels. He was forced to promise this and it soon became clear that so many of his own Conservative party MPs would vote against it (along with most of the Liberal Democrats and Labour) that he would lose such a vote heavily. That may be why he’s so focused on a no-fly zone, but getting no encouragement from Obama (9).

(1) = VOA News 18 Jun 2013 ‘Obama Skeptical About Syria No-Fly Zone Potential’,
http://www.voanews.com/content/obama-skeptical-about-syria-nofly-zone-potential/1683803.html

(2) = NYT 14 Jun 2013 ‘Heavy Pressure Led to Decision by Obama on Syrian Arms’, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/15/us/politics/pressure-led-to-obamas-decision-on-syrian-arms.html?pagewanted=all

(3) = See (1)

(4) = NYT 25 Feb 2013 ‘Saudis Step Up Help for Rebels in Syria With Croatian Arms’, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/26/world/middleeast/in-shift-saudis-are-said-to-arm-rebels-in-syria.html

(5) = The American Conservative 19 Dec 2011 ‘NATO Vs Syria’,
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/nato-vs-syria/

(6) = NYT 24 Mar 2013 ‘Arms Airlift to Syria Rebels Expands, With Aid From C.I.A.’, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/25/world/middleeast/arms-airlift-to-syrian-rebels-expands-with-cia-aid.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

(7) = Anti-War.com 08 May 2013 ‘US Asked Moderate Syrian Rebels to Fight Al-Nusra’,
http://antiwar.com/blog/2013/05/08/us-asked-moderate-syrian-rebels-to-fight-al-nusra/ (provides main stream sources)

(8) = CBS News /AP 28 Mar 2013 ‘AP: "Master plan" underway to help Syria rebels take Damascus with U.S.-approved airlifts of heavy weapons’, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57576722/ap-master-plan-underway-to-help-syria-rebels-take-damascus-with-u.s.-approved-airlifts-of-heavy-weapons/

(9) = FT blogs – world 18 Jun 2013 ‘Why the UK is highly unlikely to arm Syrian rebels’ http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2013/06/why-the-uk-is-highly-unlikely-to-arm-syrian-rebels/

A power sharing peace plan for Syria based on Lebanon - and why regime change in Syria by arming rebels, no-fly-zone or invasion would strengthen Al Qa'ida and lead to continued sectarian civil war, as it did in Iraq and Libya

Tony Blair , John McCain and other advocates of regime change by military force in Syria are ignoring the disasters it has created elsewhere, and its role, via Iraq, in creating the current crisis in Syria (1) – (2). Lebanon shows that power sharing can succeed in ending sectarian civil wars where force will fail.

Iraq’s continuing sectarian civil war is now worse than ever (3). Al Qa’ida in Iraq has become stronger than ever since the US ended their funding for Iraqi awakening militias, which had got many former Iraqi Sunni allies of Al Qa’ida to fight against it (4) – (6). Al Qa’ida In Iraq has said that it helped establish the Al Qaeda’s Syrian wing, Al Nusrah (7).

Libya is often presented as a successful regime change by force. Yet former rebel militias have tortured and killed Gadaffi’s supporters and even his former opponents, along with thousands of black Libyans, who have also been ethnically cleansed from towns like Tawergha (8) – (15). Islamist groups have also attacked British and French embassy staff and killed US embassy staff (16) – (18). Al Qa’ida has also been able to use Libya as a base for attacks on French uranium miners in Niger (19).

Regime change by force in Syria, whether just by invasion, by arming the rebels, or by a pseudo no-fly-zone actually used for regime change, as in Libya, would also strengthen Al Qa’ida ; and merely replace Sunnis and Assad opponents including civilians and children being systematically and systematically raped, tortured and killed by Assad’s forces , deliberately, on a large scale, with Alawites, Shia, Christians, Kurds and Assad supporters as victims of extremists among the rebels.

There have already been sectarian massacres of Alawites by anti-Assad Sunni jihadists in the town of Aqrab and of Shia in Hatla. Syrian refugees include huge numbers of Syrian Christians fleeing Sunni extremist groups among the rebels, just as Iraqi Christians did (20) – (23).

Even some FSA rebels say Alawites (Assad’s religion) can’t be civilians, while supposedly “moderate” Sunni clerics say anyone working for or supporting the Syrian government should be killed (24).

Increasing rebel car and suicide bombings, mostly by Al Nusrah, routinely kill as many or more civilians than combatants. (Many of the bombers are Al Qa’ida men who learnt the method in Iraq and Afghanistan, or trained by them ) (25) – (29).

Rebels also target and kill Syrian and Iranian state TV journalists and other employees as much as Assad’s forces target other journalists (30) – (32).

Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International report that rebels have also tortured and executed not only captured soldiers or militia-men but many civilians too, some merely for being Alawites or Shia Muslims. While the majority of bodies found with torture marks and bullets in the back of their heads are killed by Assad’s forces, many of the dead, who include women and teenagers, are killed by rebels (33) – (34).

Given the vast number of groups among the rebels and the lack of any real organised command structure among many of them, any rebel victory would also likely to be followed by chaos and continuing civil war in which Al Qa’ida would continue to thrive.

Syria experts and journalists on the ground says the FSA doesn’t even exist as an organisation, backed up by the words of some FSA fighters themselves who say they don’t take orders from anyone (35) – (37).

Even if Al Nusrah/Qaeda lost a second round of civil war, all the rebel groups are Islamist, overwhelmingly Sunni, and only differing in how extreme or sectarian they are, including at least 80% FSA affiliated groups (38) – (39).

We already know from Al Nusrah youtube videos that some of the Croatian and former Yugoslav arms provided by the Saudis with CIA co-ordination via Jordan and NATO members Turkey and Croatia have got into the hands of Al Nusrah/Al Qa’ida ; and that General Idriss, the nominal commander of the FSA, can’t even get units he sends arms and money to tell him what they did with the last lot he sent them, never mind obey his orders (40) – (43).

Some FSA unit commanders say there are entire fake FSA brigades which exist only to get arms to sell on (44).

So neither arming the rebels nor ‘no-fly zone’ regime change will end the atrocities against civilians, nor defeat Al Qa’ida and other groups as extreme in Syria. Only a viable peace plan can do that.

The US arming the rebels directly does not rule out using this as a way to get Assad to negotiate with a viable peace plan as the starting point for negotiations, if it is done only on a scale that makes the military balance a bit more equal, or total victory by force for Assad unattainable.

Lessons from Lebanon

Lebanon’s example shows power sharing works to end sectarian civil wars where military force or arming one side usually fails.

Intervention in the sectarian Lebanese civil war by British, French and US forces in the 1980s failed to end it (partly because these foreign forces started taking sides).

Article 5 of the 1991 Taif agreement which ended the 15 year Lebanese civil war included sharing parliamentary seats equally between Christians and Muslims with certain proportions also guaranteed to other minorities within these two groups.  This power sharing has been retained in Lebanon’s electoral law (45).

The three most powerful political positions, President, Prime Minister and Speaker of Parliament, were already guaranteed to a Christian, Sunni and Shia respectively by the 1943 National Pact. Taif made the relative power of the three offices more equal by reducing the President’s powers and increasing the Speaker’s so that some talk of them as three Presidents (46).

A power sharing peace plan for Syria

In Syria power sharing could be between opponents and supporters of Assad, or between Sunni Arabs on the one hand and Alawites and other minorities on the other (again providing agreed shares to the other minorities), including a referendum on replacing the Presidency with a multi-member ruling council, indirectly elected by parliament, to give every faction a share of power. The ruling council's decisions could require unanimity, parliamentary approval by a two-thirds majority and in some cases a referendum too.

Guaranteed equal power sharing no matter what the election results may seem strange when most countries have winner-takes-all elections in which one side is winner and one loser in each election. Yet many of these elections are decided by a few per cent of the vote and provide big majorities to parties which got a minority of the vote, while excluding those who got almost as many votes from government entirely. Is that really more democratic? And why would either side in a life or death conflict agree to accept election results if they excluded it from power entirely and so put its leaders and their supporters at risk of torture and death?

Rebel groups which signed up to power sharing could become Syrian army units under their existing commanders, or else all militias could agree to disband and hand over their weapons, with an agreement that within a fixed time half of all professional soldiers and officers would be Sunnis, with each non-Sunni religion and the Kurds getting an agreed proportion of the other half, along with similar changes in the composition of the police and judiciary.

Any armed group which rejected the agreement or continued hostilities (most likely including Al Qaida / Nusrah) could be attacked as an enemy by all who had, until it was defeated, disarmed and disbanded, or accepted the agreement.

Isolating or weakening Al Qa’ida is a common interest for the NATO and Gulf Co-Operation Council governments (Saudi Arabia and the other Sunni monarchies) as well as Russia’s and Iran’s.

In the unlikely event that Al Nusrah did sign up to the peace agreement, it would have to end violence and become more moderate to keep any share of power. The peace process in Northern Ireland showed that even when extremists were elected on both sides (Martin McGuiness of Sinn Feinn and Dr Ian Paisley of the Democratic Unionist Party) they worked together amicably and helped isolate any groups which refused to end violence (e.g ‘the Real IRA’).

This plan would be an addition to Kofi Annan’s 6 point peace plan rather than an alternative to it.

The biggest problem will be the anarchic nature of the rebels, making it difficult to find representatives who most of them will accept as negotiators.

Why power sharing agreements are needed in Iraq and maybe elsewhere too

Similar power sharing proposals in Iraq, between Shias, on the one hand, and Sunnis and Kurds, on the other, could go a long way towards ending the sectarian violence there and stopping it spilling over into Syria again and from Syria to Lebanon, though the triple division makes this more difficult as the Kurds might side with the Shia on some issues.

Power sharing in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Emirates would also allow democratisation without Sunnis fearing losing power to Shia entirely. Jordan and Egypt could also benefit from power sharing between secular and Muslim groups.

(1) = guardian.co.uk 15 Jun 2013 ‘Tony Blair calls for west to intervene in Syria conflict’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/15/tony-blair-west-intervene-syria

(2) = CNN 15 Jun 2013 ‘Sources: U.S. to send small arms, ammo to Syrian rebels’,
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/06/14/world/meast/syria-civil-war/ , (scroll down to bolded sub-heading ‘McCain: Rebels losing fight’)

(3) = guardian.co.uk 11 Jun 2013 ‘Deadly attacks deepen Iraq's sectarian divide’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/11/deadly-attacks-iraq-sectarian-divide

(4) = USA Today 09 Oct 2012 ‘Al-Qaeda making comeback in Iraq, officials say’,
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2012/10/09/al-qaeda-iraq/1623297/ , ‘But now, Iraqi and U.S. officials say, the insurgent group has more than doubled in numbers from a year ago — from about 1,000 to 2,500 fighters. And it is carrying out an average of 140 attacks each week across Iraq, up from 75 attacks each week earlier this year, according to Pentagon data.’

(5) Reuters / guardian.co.uk 20 Mar 2013 ‘Al-Qaida claims responsibility for Iraq anniversary bombings’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/20/al-qaida-iraq-anniversary-bombings

(6) = BBC World Service 13 May 2009 ‘Awakening Councils face uncertain future’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/news/2009/05/090513_awakening_wt_sl.shtml

(7) = Reuters 09 Apr 2013 ‘Iraqi al Qaeda wing merges with Syrian counterpart’,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/09/us-syria-crisis-nusra-iraq-idUSBRE93807R20130409

(8) = Amnesty International 04 Jul 2012 'Libya: Militia stranglehold corrosive for rule of law ', http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/libya-militia-stranglehold-corrosive-rule-law-2012-07-04

(9) = Medicines Sans Frontieres 26 Jan 2012 'Libya: detainees tortured and denied medical care', http://www.msf.org.uk/libyaprison360112_20120126.news

(10) = Times 12 July 2012 'Hate and fear: the legacy of Gaddafi', http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article3472720.ece

(11) = Amnesty International UK 07 Sep 2011 'Libya: Tawarghas being targeted in reprisal beatings and arrests',http://www.amnesty.org.uk/news_details.asp?NewsID=19674

(12) = Human Rights Watch 30 Oct 2011 'Libya: Militias Terrorizing Residents of ‘Loyalist’ Town', http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/10/30/libya-militias-terrorizing-residents-loyalist-town

(13) = New York Times 02 Mar 2012 'U.N. Faults NATO and Libyan Authorities in Report',http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/03/world/africa/united-nations-report-faults-nato-over-civilian-deaths-in-libya.html?_r=1 ; 'Certain revenge attacks have continued unabated, particularly the campaign by the militiamen of Misurata to wipe a neighboring town, Tawergha, off the map; the fighters accuse its residents of collaborating with a government siege.

Such attacks have been documented before, but the report stressed that despite previous criticism, the militiamen were continuing to hunt down the residents of the neighboring town no matter where they had fled across Libya. As recently as Feb. 6, militiamen from Misurata attacked a camp in Tripoli where residents of Tawergha had fled, killing an elderly man, a woman and three children, the report said. '

(14) = Independent on Sunday 08 July 2012 'Patrick Cockburn: Libyans have voted, but will the new rulers be able to curb violent militias?', http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/patrick-cockburn-libyans-have-voted-but-will-the-new-rulers-be-able-to-curb-violent-militias-7922358.html

(15) = AP/Guardian 09 Jun 2013 ‘Army chief quits after militia kills dozens in Benghazi’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/09/libya-shield-benghazi-clash-militia

(16) = BBC News 11 Jun 2012 ‘Libya unrest: UK envoy's convoy attacked in Benghazi’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18401792

(17) = BBC News 23 Apr 2012 ‘Tripoli: French embassy in Libya hit by car bomb’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22260856

(18) = Guardian.co.uk 12 Sep 2012 ‘Chris Stevens, US ambassador to Libya, killed in Benghazi attack’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/sep/12/chris-stevens-us-ambassador-libya-killed

(19) = Reuters 25 May 2013 ‘Niger attacks launched from southern Libya - Niger's president’,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/25/niger-attacks-libya-idUSL5N0E60DD20130525

(20) = Channel 4 News 14 Dec 2012 ‘Was there a massacre in the Syrian town of Aqrab?’,
http://blogs.channel4.com/alex-thomsons-view/happened-syrian-town-aqrab/3426

(21) = Independent 12 Jun 2013 ‘Syria: 60 Shia Muslims massacred in rebel ‘cleansing’ of Hatla’,
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-60-shia-muslims-massacred-in-rebel-cleansing-of-hatla-8656301.html

(22) = Independent 02 Nov 2012 ‘The plight of Syria's Christians: 'We left Homs because they were trying to kill us'’, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/the-plight-of-syrias-christians-we-left-homs-because-they-were-trying-to-kill-us-8274710.html

(23) = New York Times 08 May 2007 'The assault on Assyrian Christians', http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/opinion/08iht-edisaac.1.5618504.html

(24) = UNoCHA IRIN news 13 May 2013 ‘"Sometimes you cannot apply the rules" - Syrian rebels and IHL’, http://www.irinnews.org/printreport.aspx?reportid=98021

(25) = Reuters 23 Dec 2011 'Analysis: Syria bombings signal deadlier phase of revolt', http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/23/us-syria-bombings-idUSTRE7BM18T20111223 , 'Beirut-based commentator Rami Khouri said he doubted the government would have hit its own security targets, suggesting that the bombings could have been the work of armed rebels,....Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut, also said he did not believe that the Syrian government was behind the bombings.'

(26) = New York Times 10 May 2012 'Dozens Killed in Large Explosions in Syrian Capital', http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/11/world/middleeast/damascus-syria-explosions-intelligence-headquarters.html?pagewanted=all ; 'Twin suicide car bombs that targeted a notorious military intelligence compound shook the Syrian capital, Damascus… with the Health Ministry putting the toll at 55 dead and nearly 400 wounded — civilians and soldiers. '

(27) = Voice of America 22 Feb 2013 ‘Death Toll Rises in Damascus Blasts’,
http://www.voanews.com/content/death-toll-rises-in-damascus-blasts/1608600.html
‘A Syrian expatriate rights group says a series of bombings in Damascus has killed at least 83 people …Most of the victims are said to be civilians, including many children from a nearby school, with 17 of the dead reported to be members of the security forces.’

(28) = BBC News 11 Jun 2013 ‘Syria crisis: Damascus hit by double 'suicide bombing'’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22852237

(29) = USA Today 09 Jun 2013 ‘Large car bombs increasing in Syria’, http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/06/09/syria-ieds-bombs-hezbollah/2401851/

(30) = AP 27 May 2013 ‘Pro-government Syrian journalist Yara Abbas killed in action’, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57586279/pro-government-syrian-journalist-yara-abbas-killed-in-action/

(31) = Atlantic Wire 26 May 2012 ‘Pro-Regime Iranian Journalist Killed by Syrian Rebels’,
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2012/09/pro-regime-iranian-journalist-killed-syrian-rebels/57288/

(32) = BBC News 27 Jun 2012 ‘Gunmen 'kill seven' at Syrian pro-Assad Ikhbariya TV’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18606341

(33) = Human Rights Watch 20 Mar 2012 ‘Syria: Armed Opposition Groups Committing Abuses - End Kidnappings, Forced Confessions, and Executions’, http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/03/20/syria-armed-opposition-groups-committing-abuses (esp 1st para, 2^nd sentence ‘Abuses include kidnapping, detention, and torture of security force members, government supporters, and people identified as members of pro-government militias, called shabeeha…. executions by armed opposition groups of security force members and civilians.’ – also see under sub-heading ‘Torture’)

(34) = Amnesty International 14 Mar 2013 ‘Syria: Summary killings and other abuses by armed opposition groups’, http://www.amnesty.org/fr/library/asset/MDE24/008/2013/en/21461c90-3702-4892-aa3c-4974bba54689/mde240082013en.html

(35) = ‘The FSA Doesn’t Exist’ by Professor Aron Lund of the Swedish Institute for International Affairs, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/the-free-syrian-army-doesnt-exist/

(36) = BBC News 09 May 2013 ‘Syria's protracted conflict shows no sign of abating’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22456875

(37) = CBC News 07 Dec 2012 ‘Free Syrian Army an uneasy mix of religious extremes’
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/12/06/f-vp-bedard-syrian-rebels.html (scroll down to sub-heading ‘Abandoning Secularism’)

(38) = Syria Comment 03 Apr 2013 ‘Sorting out David Ignatius’, by Around Lund, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/sorting-out-david-ignatius/

(39) = Swedish Institute of International Affairs UIBrief No.13 , Sep 2012, ‘Syrian Jihadism’, by Aron Lund, http://www.ui.se/upl/files/77409.pdf , pages 10 to 17

(40) = CBS News /AP 28 Mar 2013 ‘AP: "Master plan" underway to help Syria rebels take Damascus with U.S.-approved airlifts of heavy weapons’, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57576722/ap-master-plan-underway-to-help-syria-rebels-take-damascus-with-u.s.-approved-airlifts-of-heavy-weapons/

(41) = NYT 24 Mar 2013 ‘Arms Airlift to Syria Rebels Expands, With Aid From C.I.A.’, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/25/world/middleeast/arms-airlift-to-syrian-rebels-expands-with-cia-aid.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

(42) = NYT 25 Feb 2013 ‘Saudis Step Up Help for Rebels in Syria With Croatian Arms’,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/26/world/middleeast/in-shift-saudis-are-said-to-arm-rebels-in-syria.html

(43) = http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/02/world/middleeast/syrian-rebel-leader-deals-with-old-ties-to-other-side.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

(44) = NYT 01 Mar 2013 ‘Syrian Rebel Leader Deals With Ties to Other Side’,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/02/world/middleeast/syrian-rebel-leader-deals-with-old-ties-to-other-side.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&

(45) = ‘The Lebanese Civil War and The Taif Agreement’ by Hassem Kraim of the American University of Beirut,
http://ddc.aub.edu.lb/projects/pspa/conflict-resolution.html

(46) = Independent Foundation for Electoral Systems Mar 2009 ‘The Lebanese Electoral System’, http://www.ifes.org/Content/Publications/Papers/2009/The-Lebanese-Electoral-System.aspx

Obama is right to tighten gun laws in the US - but wrong to send more weapons to Syria :US stepping up arming of Syrian rebels will only intensify civil war and chaos that lets terrorists like Al Qa'ida and Sunni extremists like Al Nusrah get more recruits and operate more freely ; and makes an Islamic state or a second civil war more likely than democracy

There can’t be anyone who doesn’t feel for the parents who lost their children in the senseless events in America; and President Obama is right to propose tightening gun ownership laws. He could save many Syrian children and adults from equally avoidable deaths if his administration stopped doing the opposite in Syria. The Obama administration has been “co-ordinating” the supply of arms to rebel groups in Syria and is also covertly supplying them with arms bought in Libya since Gadaffi’s overthrow. US and British Special forces are also active in Syria and more military “advisers” are to be sent – with advisers having been a euphemism for combatants since Vietnam at the latest. (1) – (2).

NATO governments claim this helps Syrian rebels protect civilians from Assad’s forces, but in reality some on both sides are targeting civilians – and the more intense the civil war gets the more easily terrorist groups including Al Qa’ida can operate in Syria, so arming the rebels gets civilians killed just as much as Russia arming Assad’s forces does.

Human Rights Watch have reported some armed opponents of Assad are targeting and killing civilians including employees of Syrian state television (3) – (4). Channel 4 News reporter Alex Thomson recently reported multiple consistent accounts from survivors and witnesses of Sunni Jihadists, opposed to Assad, massacring Alawite civilians in the town of Aqrab (5).

Many Syrian Christian refugees have also fled attacks by Sunni Jihadists allied to the rebels (6)

Terrorist car bombings are also common, each killing between several and dozens of civilians as collateral damage by targeting government buildings and even the family homes of member of the military or Assad supporters (7) – (9). Two such rebel attacks, one with a mortar and the other with a car bomb, each killed several schoolchildren in the last month (10) – (13).

The government, with it’s artillery, tanks and jets, kills more civilians, again many deliberately and many others by not worrying about “collateral damage” deaths when using bombings by air forces, artillery and tanks, due to it’s greater firepower and equal brutality, but though thousands of civilians have been killed by government forces, the opposition figures on this are exaggerated, with fighters killed in combat reported as civilians by many opposition groups (14) – (16).

While some FSA fighters have tortured and killed captured government soldiers and militia-men, most of the car bombing atrocities and the massacres of civilians committed by anti-Assad forces are not committed by the Free Syrian Army but more extreme groups like the Syrian Al Nusrah and international Jihadists including Al Qa’ida, many Iraqis recruited after Al Qa’ida took advantage of the chaos created in Iraq (17) – (19).

The Obama administration claims it’s “co-ordination” is to ensure that only moderates get weapons, funding and arms (20). If that’s true, it’s failing. The FSA say the Jihadist groups are the ones getting the most arms and money (21).

It’s possible this is because the Saudis and Qatari dictators favour Islamists over a democracy that might embarrass them (as some Syrian exile opposition leaders suggest), but equally possible that the US government actually favours arming Sunni extremists as they will be the most uncompromising against Assad (an Alawite) and his Iranian Shia allies – the same reason they “co-ordinated” with the Saudis and Pakistanis to arm, fund and train the Mujahedin in the 80s and the Taliban in the early 90s. Al Qa’ida and Al Nusrah, like the Taliban, consider Alawites and Shia to be “false Muslims” (22) – (24).

The peaceful part of the Syrian opposition to Assad oppose foreign interference and violence which is causing civil war and sectarianism. For instance exiled Syrian opposition leader Haytham Manna of the National Co-ordination Body for Democratic Change Abroad issued Three No’s – to violence, to sectarianism and to foreign intervention (25).

According to Haytham the US backed political leadership of the FSA, the Syrian National Council, also refuse to denounce Al Nusrah and continue to work along with them in the civil war (26).

As in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and Afghanistan, the chaos created by foreign powers each arming their own proxies is providing an environment that terrorist and sectarian groups can thrive in. The phony threat that Assad might use WMD is also brought up. In fact as the BBC’s Defence correspondent reported, the evidence suggests Assad’s government is trying to secure WMD so there’s no risk of it being captured by terrorist groups like Al Qa’ida, as it’s done before in the past (27) – (28).

We’re given the impression that Assad has refused to make any significant democratic reforms. Despite the atrocities committed by his forces as much as the Jihadists, this is not true.

Assad changed the constitution last year to end the one party state in Syria, legalising opposition parties and held multi-party elections in which over 51% of Syrians voted (29).

That is a much more major reform – and supported by more of the population – than the fig leaves for reform, like powerless elected local councillors in Saudi, and powerless parliaments in Bahrain, Yemen and Kuwait, which the US and British governments welcome (30) – (33).

The Free Syrian Army rebels say they will get rid of the Jihadists once they’ve overthrown Assad, but if the Jihadists are the best armed and funded and trained rebel groups, how would they manage to? NATO governments will argue this is why they need to arm the FSA better – but the FSA is torturing and killing POWs – and the more the civil war intensifies the stronger the sectarian militias and Jihadist terrorist groups on both sides get.

Negotiation and opposing Assad’s regime through elections, rather than calling for it’s overthrow by force, would be a much more effective way to get real democracy in Syria, in the long run, than intensifying a civil war in which more people die each day and in which the only real winners are Al Qa’ida and their allies.

 

(1) = Washington Post 06 May 2012 ‘Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination’,  http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/syrian-rebels-get-influx-of-arms-with-gulf-neighbors-money-us-coordination/2012/05/15/gIQAds2TSU_story.html

(2) = Sunday Times 09 Dec 2012 ‘Covert US plan to arm rebels’,
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1173125.ece ; 1^st to 3^rd , 5^th and 9^th paragraphs ‘THE United States is launching a covert operation to send weapons to Syrian rebels for the first time as it ramps up military efforts to oust President Bashar al-Assad. Mortars, rocket-propelled grenades and anti-tank missiles will be sent through friendly Middle Eastern countries already supplying the rebels, according to well-placed diplomatic sources. The Americans have bought some of the weapons from the stockpiles of Muammar Gadaffi, the Libyan dictator killed last year. They include SA-7 missiles, which can be used to shoot down aircraft…President Barack Obama authorised clandestine CIA support earlier this year and both the US and Britain have had special forces and intelligence officers on the ground for some time…The US will send in more advisers to help with tactics and manage weapons supplies. British advisers are also expected to be sent. America and Britain are already training Jordanian and Turkish advisers to support the rebels.’

(3) = Human Rights Watch 20 Mar 2012 'Syria: Armed Opposition Groups Committing Abuses', http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/03/20/syria-armed-opposition-groups-committing-abuses ‘Armed opposition elements have carried out serious human rights abuses, Human Rights Watch said today in a public letter to the Syrian National Council (SNC) and other leading Syrian opposition groups. Abuses include kidnapping, detention, and torture of security force members, government supporters, and people identified as members of pro-government militias, called shabeeha." as well as "executions by armed opposition groups of security force members and civilians."’

(4) = BBC News 27 Jun 2012 ‘Gunmen 'kill seven' at Syrian pro-Assad Ikhbariya TV’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18606341

(5) = Channel 4 News 14 Dec 2012 ‘Was there a massacre in the Syrian town of Aqaba’, http://blogs.channel4.com/alex-thomsons-view/happened-syrian-town-aqrab/3426

(6) = Independent 02 Nov 2012 ‘The plight of Syria's Christians: 'We left Homs because they were trying to kill us'’, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/the-plight-of-syrias-christians-we-left-homs-because-they-were-trying-to-kill-us-8274710.html

(7) = Reuters 23 Dec 2011 'Analysis: Syria bombings signal deadlier phase of revolt', http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/23/us-syria-bombings-idUSTRE7BM18T20111223 , 'Beirut-based commentator Rami Khouri said he doubted the government would have hit its own security targets, suggesting that the bombings could have been the work of armed rebels, who he said include hardline Salafi Islamists in their ranks....Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut, also said he did not believe that the Syrian government was behind the bombings.'

(8) = New York Times 10 May 2012 'Dozens Killed in Large Explosions in Syrian Capital', http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/11/world/middleeast/damascus-syria-explosions-intelligence-headquarters.html?pagewanted=all ; 'Twin suicide car bombs that targeted a notorious military intelligence compound shook the Syrian capital, Damascus, on Thursday, killing and wounding hundreds of people ...It was the largest such terrorist attack since the uprising began 14 months ago, with the Health Ministry putting the toll at 55 dead and nearly 400 wounded — civilians and soldiers. '

(9) = Guardian 26 Oct 2012 ‘Syrian car bomb breaks Eid al-Adha ceasefire’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/26/syrian-carm-bomb-breaks-ceasefire

(10) = A.P 04 Dec 2012 ‘Syria says 30 killed in mortar attack on school’,
http://news.yahoo.com/syria-says-30-killed-mortar-attack-school-172156089.html

(11) = AP 13 Dec 2012 ‘Syria State Media: Blast near Damascus Kills 16’,
http://world.time.com/2012/12/13/bomb-explodes-near-syrian-capital/

(12) = Al Jazeera 13 Dec 2012 ‘Dozens killed in Syria bomb attacks’,
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/12/2012121310920586422.html

(13) = BBC News 13 Dec 2012 ‘Syria crisis: Bombs 'kill 24' in Damascus suburbs’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20710556

(14) = Amnesty International Annual Report 2012 , http://www.amnesty.org/en/region/syria/report-2012#section-12-3

(15) = BBC News 14 Oct 2012 ‘Human Rights Watch says Syria using cluster bombs’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19942318

(16) Al Jazeera 13 Feb 2012 ‘Q&A: Nir Rosen on Syria's armed opposition’,
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/02/201221315020166516.html (13th Question and answer ‘AJ: Who is being killed? NR: Every day the opposition gives a death toll, usually without any explanation of the cause of the deaths. Many of those reported killed are in fact dead opposition fighters, but the cause of their death is hidden and they are described in reports as innocent civilians killed by security forces, as if they were all merely protesting or sitting in their homes. Of course, those deaths still happen regularly as well.’

(17) = HRW 17 Sep 2012 ‘Syria: End Opposition Use of Torture, Executions’, http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/09/17/syria-end-opposition-use-torture-executions

(18) = Guardian 30 Jul 2012 ‘Al-Qaida turns tide for rebels in battle for eastern Syria’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/30/al-qaida-rebels-battle-syria

(19) = BBC News 02 Aug 2012 ‘Syria conflict: Jihadists' role growing’,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19091400

(20) = Washington Post 16 May 2012 ‘Syrian rebels get influx of arms with gulf neighbors’ money, U.S. coordination’, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/syrian-rebels-get-influx-of-arms-with-gulf-neighbors-money-us-coordination/2012/05/15/gIQAds2TSU_story.html

(21) = Observer 03 Nov 2012 ‘Execution of Assad troops widens split among rebel fighter factions in Syria’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/03/syria-military-council-aleppo-rebels ; paragraphs 5 to 8 , 15 to 16 and final paragraph ; ‘Syrian Islamist groups…are not able to match the better-armed and funded global jihadist units, who are increasingly taking centre stage in the war for the north of the country…"This will soon mean that Jabhat al-Nusraf (an al-Qaida-aligned group) will be the only group capable of mounting the lethal operations on bases and security headquarters," said a leader of Liwat al-Tawheed, which has been a key player in the fighting in Aleppo. "It already means that we can't win without them."…Islamist groups in Aleppo say that they aim to do no more than oust the Assad regime. Most of their clerics and leaders reject the ideology of the jihadists, who openly view the battle in Syria as a vital phase of a global sectarian war….Another Liwat al-Tawheed commander said…"Compare what we have to what al-Nusraf are getting. They are not getting weapons from outside, but they are buying them in Syria with large amounts of cash. They are very well supplied and they are not saying where they are getting the money from."

(22) = Guardian 18 Dec 2012 ‘Syria: after Assad falls, what then?’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/dec/18/after-assad-falls-what-then

(23) = Steve Coll (2004) , 'Ghost Wars : The secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan and Bin Laden' , Penguin , London , Chapters 16 to 18

(24) = Ahmed Rashid (2000) 'Taliban', Pan MacMillan, London, 2011, Chapters 10 to 12

(25) = Guardian 22 Jun 2012 ‘Syria's opposition has been led astray by violence’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/22/syria-opposition-led-astray-by-violence

(26) = Guardian 18 Dec 2012 ‘Syria: after Assad falls, what then?’,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/dec/18/after-assad-falls-what-then

(27) = Media Lens 12 Dec 2012 ‘Won't Get Fooled Again? Hyping Syria's WMD 'Threat'’,
http://www.medialens.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=712:wont-get-fooled-again-hyping-syrias-wmd-threat&catid=25:alerts-2012&Itemid=69

(28) = BBC News 05 Dec 2012 ‘Fears grow for fate of Syria's chemical weapons’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18483788

(29) = BBC News 16 May 2012 ‘Syria election results show support for reforms, says Assad’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18084827  3^rd paragraph ‘The election commission said on Tuesday that turnout was 51% for the polls, which the opposition said were a farce.’ 18^th paragraph…The polls were the first held under a new constitution adopted in February, which dropped an article giving the Baath Party unique status as the "leader of the state and society" in Syria. It also allowed new parties to be formed, albeit those not based on religious, tribal, regional, denominational or professional affiliation, nor those based abroad.

(30) = City Mayors Feb 2005 ‘First local election underway in Saudi Arabia but women voters will have to wait until 2009’, http://www.citymayors.com/report/saudi_elections.html

(31) = Gulf News (UAE) 31 Mar 2008 ‘Frustrated council members prepared to quit’, http://archive.gulfnews.com/news/gulf/saudi_arabia/10201694.html

(32) = BBC News 23 Nov 2012 ‘Bahrain reconciliation distant amid slow reform pace’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20449587

(33) = See the blog post on this link and sources 25 to 30 at the bottom of it on the lack of democracy and powerlessness of parliament in Kuwait

Free Yemeni journalist Abdulelah Haider Shaye

According to American and British journalists who know him a Yemeni journalist called Abdulelah Haider Shaye who is in jail in Yemen on charges of “associating with Al Qaeda” is not an Al Qa’ida supporter, but embarrassed the US and Yemeni governments when his investigations contradicted their claims. He was pardoned by Al Saleh, the dictator of Yemen, but a phone call from President Obama expressing ‘concern’ that he was to be released has resulted in him being left in jail (1).

Jeremy Scahill of the Nation magazine and a British journalist, who both know him, say he has never supported Al Qaeda. He used his contacts in Yemen to get interviews with  ‘Al Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula’ leaders in Yemen and asked them many critical and hostile questions about how they could justify supporting terrorist attacks, as well as general ones about their aims and motives (2).

He also reported on what the Yemeni government had claimed were Yemeni airstrikes on Al Qa'ida targets. He found evidence from shell and missile fragments that these were actually US missile and drone strikes and that while the US and Yemeni governments reported each strike to have killed many Al Qa'ida members, in fact the majority of the dead were civilians, including women and children and few of those killed were Al Qaeda. In particular he found one strike that they had reported as a great success and which supposedly killed 34 Al Qa'ida men actually killed mostly women and children.

Amnesty International and an investigation by a Yemeni parliamentary committee confirmed what Haider had reported (3).

He was also reporting that the Yemeni government were exaggerating the numbers of Al Qa'ida in Yemen in order to ensure they kept the same level of US military aid funding.

He was then jailed on charges of supporting Al Qaeda by a dodgy court set up by the Yemeni dictatorship (see Human Rights Watch's 2012 report on Yemen (covering 2011)) . At one point the regime was considering releasing him. Then President Saleh (the dictator of Yemen) got a phone call from President Obama saying he was very concerned about the possible release - and so he was kept in jail (4) – (6).

Investigative journalism to try to discover the facts is not supporting terrorism. The US ambassador to Yemen, when questioned on how Haider’s imprisonment would affect reporting by other journalists in Yemen, laughed and answered that they had nothing to worry about so long as they didn’t do what Haider did (i.e embarrass the US government and it’s client dictatorship in Yemen?).

There's a petition you can sign calling for Haider’s release here.

There are links to Committee to Protect Journalists reports on the case and other actions you can take here.

Glenn Greenwald on the case here.

(1) = Al Jazeera English 26 Mar 2012 ‘The dangers of reporting the 'war on terror'’, http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/listeningpost/2012/03/2012323201744332607.html

(2) = see (1) above

(3) = Amnesty International 07 Jun 2010 ‘Images of missile and cluster munitions point to US role in fatal attack in Yemen’, http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/yemen-images-missile-and-cluster-munitions-point-us-role-fatal-attack-2010-06-04

(4) = Human Rights Watch World Report 2012 : Yemen, http://www.hrw.org/world-report-2012/world-report-2012-yemen

(5) = White House press relase 03 Feb 2011 ‘Readout of President's Call with President Saleh of Yemen’, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/02/03/readout-presidents-call-president-saleh-yemen

(6) = The Nation 13 Mar 2012 ‘Why Is President Obama Keeping a Journalist in Prison in Yemen? ’, http://www.thenation.com/article/166757/why-president-obama-keeping-journalist-prison-yemen