Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Norway killings show the Islamisation of Europe myth is a greater threat to democracy than Al Qaeda

The myths that Muslim immigrants are taking over Europe and that multiculturalism is harmful caused the murders in Norway.  As in the 1930s the real threats to democracy are irrational hatred of minorities and the mass unemployment which is increasing them.

There is a dangerous myth being spread by the hard right in the UK, Europe and in the US – that Muslims are on their way to taking over Europe through immigration and high birth rates which will result in them outnumbering non-Muslims and imposing Sharia law on us all (1) – (5). The Norwegian lunatic Anders Behring Breivik who shot dozens of teenagers is one of millions saying he opposes “multiculturalism” and “an Islamic takeover of Europe” or “Islamisation”. He says he targeted the Norwegian Labour party for being “traitors” by allowing immigration (6) – (8). These myths are being spread not just by the far right but by columnists in mainstream newspapers, tabloids and magazines. They’re also being pandered to and repeated by many senior members of mainstream parties of the centre-right and centre-left in order to get easy votes – and held by some of their smaller coalition partners.  

These beliefs are a much greater threat to democracy in Britain and Europe than Islamic extremism is because they are held by a much larger and faster growing proportion of the population. As a result the far right have made electoral breakthroughs and the main parties have adopted some of their policies and rhetoric, making more people believe them. These false beliefs have increased during the current recession due to governments and media owners looking for scapegoats to avoid taking the blame themselves, just as similar myths and hatred against Jews, gypsies and immigrants did during the Great Depression of the 1930s, but they have never really gone away – they’ve just switched targets.

The ‘Islamisation’ of Europe myth is that Muslims are going to take over Europe by becoming a majority through immigration and a higher birth rate, then imposing Sharia law on everyone.

The facts and figures on Muslim vs non-Muslim immigration and birth rates in Europe

While a few Muslim extremists in the UK have talked of outnumbering non-Muslims by having lots of children, the figures and research show the Muslim takeover theory would be funny if it wasn’t so widely believed and so dangerous (9). The Pew Research Center in the US found that between 1990 and 2010 the Muslim population of Europe rose from 26 million to about 41 million (and that’s for the whole of Europe – including Eastern European countries outside the EU – e.g Bosnia, Albania and Kosovo). However since this was a small minority of the total population and many immigrants are not Muslims the rise was from 4.1% of the population of Europe to 6%  (10).

Since Pew also found that  birth rates among Muslims globally and in the EU have been falling fast over those 30 years there is no prospect whatsoever of Muslims becoming a majority in the EU (11). Muslims are also a minority of  immigrants  - just 28% of immigrants to the UK in 2010 were Muslims and only 13% of those to Spain – with the average rate for the 14 EU members listed by the Pew report being 28%. The only country with more Muslim than non-Muslim immigrants is France, with 68.5%, because of it’s links with it’s former North African colonies in Morocco and Algeria (12).

Despite the myths, the only countries with which EU member states have uncontrolled immigration are other EU member states  – and uncontrolled immigration only applies to people with EU citizenship, not asylum seekers or migrant workers who are not citizens of an EU country. EU member states’ immigration policy on immigration from outside the EU and on illegal immigration has also become harsher due to EU agreements, not softer (13).

So a large proportion of immigrants to EU countries come from other EU countries, none of which have a Muslim majority or anything close to one. The non-Muslim majority of immigrants from outside the EU and from poorer EU countries to wealthier ones tend to have high birth rates, just like the Muslim minority of immigrants from outside the EU (14) – (16).

The only fact the anti-immigration and anti-Muslim arguments have on their side is that overall birth rates among the non-immigrant population are too low to even maintain the existing population sizes of EU countries without continued immigration. However the effect of this is reduced by the tendency for the children of immigrants to have less children, falling by the second or third generation (on average) to no more children than average for the existing population (i.e falling towards less than two children per couple) (14) –(16).

Research in Europe confirms that the children of Muslim immigrants have less children than their parents did - showing that from the second generation on birth rates among Muslims fall to similar levels to non-Muslim natives – and that includes the Netherlands, despite what Geert Wilders claims (17) – (19). (Credit here to the Yellow Stars Euro Blog post ‘Islamification Myth’ ).

(There has been a big fall in immigration to the EU as a result of the recession caused by the banking crisis and this combined with the increase in immigration from North Africa due to revolutions and wars taking place in the ‘Arab Spring’ may lead to an increasing percentage of immigrants being Muslims (partly because the EU and it’s member governments were  funding the North African dictatorships to prevent immigration to Europe), but since this is partly because overall immigration levels are down, the chances of them becoming a majority in most countries in the EU would still be negligible (20) – (22). )

Most European Muslims are not extreme fundamentalists

Then there’s the false assumption that most Muslims living in and migrating to Europe are extreme fundamentalists who believe in a Taliban or Saudi Arabian version of Sharia law and sympathise with Al Qa’ida, based on demonstrations by handfuls of extremists. In fact, while polls show a higher proportion of Muslims are strongly religious than the average, a poll of British Muslims in 2006 found that more opposed Sharia law (41%) than supported it (40%) – though you wouldn’t have known that form the Telegraph newspaper’s headline which only mentioned the second figure (23).

There are also many interpretations of Sharia law, with a great deal of debate even among devout Muslims as to which parts of the Koran and other Islamic texts apply to the modern day and which don’t and on whether Sharia should adapt to present customs or not.  Some of the more liberal interpretations by Muslim scholars say ‘ijtihad’ (interpretive reasoning) can be used by Muslims to decide how to apply Islamic principles in the present to particular situations. Many interpretations are much less extreme than the Taliban’s or Saudi Arabia’s and don’t involve beheadings, stoning for adultery or cutting off the hands of thieves (24) – (25).  (I am certainly not advocating Sharia law here, just pointing out that not all Muslims who support Sharia are extremists supporting stoning, beheadings and amputations).

The 2006 poll also showed that 99% of British Muslims believed that the London bombings were wrong and “an atrocity” (26).

Even in the hugely unlikely event of any EU countries having a Muslim majority they might well not implement Sharia law anyway. Neither Bosnia, Kosovo, nor Albania have Sharia law despite having majority Muslim populations ; Nor does Turkey, with an Islamic party having been in government for over a decade.

Even if Turkey were to gain membership of the EU ( which is very unlikely to happen) most Turkish Muslims are less than fundamentalist, drinking alcohol, cutting or shaving their facial hair and eating pork for instance (27).

Immigrants are influenced by societies they move to as much as they influence them -

and current immigration is nothing unprecedented historically

Another dodgy assumption made by the anti-Muslim-ites is that Muslim immigrants and their children and grandchildren and great grandchildren will all remain devout Muslims and will not inter-marry with or be influenced by the non-Muslim majority they live among. This seems highly unlikely based on past waves of immigration such as Irish immigration to the UK in the 17th to 20th centuries (which was often accompanied by hysteria from many Protestants about how this could allow a Catholic takeover, with Catholicism imposed on everyone by the Irish through immigration and high birth rates). Later generations have tended to be less religious and to have smaller families as their education and income levels rose and they had more contact with non-Catholics.  (I’m using the term ‘anti-Muslim-ites’ rather than ‘Islamophobes’ because their beliefs are as prejudiced against all Muslims, as irrational and as full of hatred as anti-Semites’ hatred of all Jews).

The same would seem likely to happen with how religious second and later generations are, though bigots and hate mongers like the British National Party, the English Defence League and Breivik have created a reaction among a minority of European Muslims who have reasserted their identity more forcefully in a refusal to be intimidated. Extreme Bosnian Serb and Croatian nationalist attacks on Muslims in the Bosnian war similarly led to a growth in fundamentalism among a Muslim population who previously were happy to celebrate Christmas and drink alcohol (most still are).

So there is no reason to think that immigration to Europe by Muslims will ‘destroy society’ and lead to the ‘native people’ being overwhelmed any more than many previous waves of immigration. Many of these involved violent raiding, murders, rapes and all out war and invasion by people of different religions (for instance the Celts, Romans and Saxons all worshipped different Gods and had significantly different cultures and languages – and the Normans and Vikings had different languages and cultures from the Anglo-Saxons). The current waves of immigration are non-violent and controlled by EU governments – most violence involved is by immigration officers or private security guards involved in forcible deportations.

The numbers of immigrants are certainly greater than in  the past due to higher global population and birth rates and modern transport, but the technology and organisation of controls on immigration are also more advanced and birth rates have been falling for over a decade even in most of the higher birth rate countries.

The real danger is that the extreme right will either get into government again across Europe through a mixture of irrational hatred of all Muslims and immigrants and mass unemployment and poverty caused by austerity policies; or else mainstream parties will continue to go further and further in adopting the policies of the extreme right to keep power (as many already have), rather than challenge and defeat them by reducing the real cause of the problem – unemployment.

A global extremist ideology with far more believers than Al Qa’ida – and far more influential ones

British journalist and author Melanie Phillips - an exponent of the Islamisation myth and the supposed threat of multiculturalism, quoted at length by Breivik

The Norwegian mass murder Breivik’s ideology is part of a growing global extremist movement with far more believers than Al Qa’ida has ever had, comparable to global anti-Semitism and fascist movements during the Great Depression.

A large minority of European and American politicians and newspaper editors have argued that while Breivik’s actions were insane, his beliefs are valid. For instance Francesco Speroni, Chief Whip of the Italian Northern League party in the Italian parliament and former minister in one of Berlusconi’s coalition governments has said that “Breivik's ideas are in defence of western civilisation”. Speroni is an admirer of the late Oriana Fallaci, an Italian journalist and author who popularised the supposed threat of ‘Eurabia’ – Islamisation and Arabisation of Europe (28).

Italian MEP Mario Borgezio, a member of Prime Minister Berlusconi’s coalition partner party the Northern League, has said that “Some of the ideas he expressed are good, barring the violence. Some of them are great” (29).

Breivik’s condemnation of multiculturalism and the supposed ‘Islamisation of Europe’ echo many articles by right wing American commentators like Daniel Pipes in the US and former Daily Mail columnist Melanie Phillips in the UK. Breivik quoted an entire Phillips article from the Daily Mail in 2009 in his online manifesto. In it Phillips claimed the British Labour party in government had allowed unrestricted immigration (false – there were for instance many deportations of black Zimbabweans back to torture or death at Mugabe’s hands, just as under the Conservatives) and that Labour had done this  in order to deliberately “destroy British society” to get the votes of immigrants (30) – (31).

In 2002 Phillips wrote that “Multiculturalism is predicated on the idea that all faiths are equal; but …if enfeebled Christianity no longer identifies itself as the spiritual pastor of the culture…Islam will move into the vacuum.” And that “The question the multiculturalists have to answer is..: are we a western culture, or are we to become something else? If the latter, who is making the decision to wipe out our national identity? Because if we take in enough people who refuse to assimilate to western values, this belief system will not survive.” (32). She has had many similar rants since on her website here and in her book ‘The World turned upside down’. Surprisingly this book is about how the Muslims and the immigrants are taking over due to political correctness gone maaaad.

Bruce Bawer, the American author of one of many fear-mongering books on ‘Islamisation’ called ‘While Europe Slept: How Radical Islam Is Destroying the West from Within’, had a comment piece published in the Wall Street Journal in which he claimed Breivik had “legitimate concern about genuine problems” such as “the rise of Islam in Europe”. Bawer notes that Breivik had quoted his book 22 times in his online manifesto. (33).

Former senior Republican congressman Newt Gingrich (who is running to be the Republican Presidential candidate) has said that America is in danger of becoming a “secular atheist country, potentially one dominated by radical Islamists and with no understanding of what it once meant to be an American.”. Gingrich is clearly playing to the Islamisation myth here, similarly to Phillips – that if we aren’t all right wing Christian fundamentalists the Muslims will take over - but applied to the US (34).

American politician Pat Buchanan, a former member of the Nixon administration, has also written pieces claiming that the Islamisation of Europe which Breivik fears is a real threat (35). Both Bawer and Buchanan praise Brievik’s supposedly deep knowledge of European culture and history and his “intelligence”.

Breivik also talked online of his contacts with the far right English Defence League which also says it opposes ‘Islamisation’ and ‘multiculturalism’ – and online posts by EDL members said he’d given talks and been to demonstrations with them in the UK (36).

The role of Pamela Geller of the Tea Party wing of the US Republican party in spreading anti-Muslim hatred and opposition to multicultural society in Norway is so great that I’m making a separate post on it, but note here that Breivik often posted on Geller’s blog and read her posts (including one claiming all rapes in the past 5 years in Norway were committed by Muslims) and that Geller held rallies against ‘Islamisation’ and ‘multi-culturalism’ in Norway. Geller also blames “the Euro-Med policy” for “inciting” Breivik.

Murdoch’s Sun newspaper didn’t bother waiting for the facts on the Norway attacks, but went ahead and published a front page claiming it was ‘Norway’s 9/11’ and an ‘Al Qaeda massacre’.

Big parties in government adopting far right rhetoric and policies, strengthening the far right

President Sarkozy’s mass forced deportation of gypsies, who are EU citizens born in the EU, from France, to try to avoid losing votes going to the French National Front, is one chilling example of mainstream parties adopting far right policies (37) – (38). The Nazis and the Vichy French collaborators sent gypsies to the concentration camps along with the Jews during the Second World War.

During mayoral elections in Milan and Naples in May Berlusconi and his favoured candidates made their crackdown on immigrants (especially Muslim ones) and closure of gypsy camps the main theme of their campaign, accusing their challengers of being soft on both. Berlusconi’s favoured candidate in Milan lost heavily this time, but The Guardian reported that :

‘Professor James Walston of the American University of Rome, said he feared Berlusconi's tactics could have a lasting impact on interracial and interfaith relations in Italy. "This type of language has been used by the prime minister, not some neo-fascist maniac on the fringes," he said. "It will be difficult to bring Italian political language back to acceptable European levels."’ (39)

There are some genuine problems with crimes by some gypsies, just as there are some extreme fundamentalists and a tiny number of terrorists among European Muslims, but this does not make prejudice against all gypsies or Muslims acceptable any more than it would be acceptable to blame all white, Christian, Europeans for Breivik’s actions. It’s prejudice and political hate and fear-mongering.

Anti-semitism – hatred of Jews was as widespread and socially acceptable in Europe, Britain, the US and Canada in the 1930s and even during World War Two as prejudice against all Muslims and immigrants is now (40). It was accompanied by hatred of immigrants (many Jewish) and gypsies. It continued even up until the Holocaust was revealed in full after World War Two. Then, too, it was mostly the far right who hated the minorities, not the left, with Communists in London fighting Mosley’s fascist anti-Semitic blackshirts who modelled themselves on the Nazis. While some serious anti-Semitism remains, hatred of Muslims and immigrants has become more common.

Governments claiming ‘multiculturalism has failed’ has boosted the far right

The Conservative party in the UK, including Prime Minister David Cameron, have also pandered to the far right by claiming that “multiculturalism has failed” – a claim echoed by Sarkozy in France and Merkel in Germany (41) – (43). To the bigots and the unemployed who blame them for the loss of their jobs the word ‘multiculturalism’ means two things – allowing foreigners with different skin colours and religions into our countries and allowing them to marry Christians and white people. Breivik shot dozens of teenagers dead to punish them for supporting ‘multiculturalism’.

Nick Griffin, the leader of the neo-fascist British National Party, was over-joyed at Cameron’s speech, calling it “A further huge leap for our ideas into the political mainstream” and adding that “A few years ago we had the then Labour Home Secretary David Blunkett admitting that ‘multiculturalism has failed” (44).

 It has not failed though. People of different religions and races can mostly get on with each other, do business, be friends, marry one another and influence each other culturally as equals – and both sides tend to learn and gain from the interaction, getting the best ideas and traditions from each culture. The alternative is a slide towards defining only white Christians as being true Europeans – and that has led to genocide and world wars in the past.

To be fair what Cameron, Sarkozy, Merkel and Blunkett mean by 'multiculturalism' is different cultures, religions or races living entirely separately from one another, but this is more the result of unemployment leading to less contact between communities than of any new failure to integrate. It also fails to take into account the fact that past waves of immigrants have taken time to integrate into society as their children, grandchildren and great grandchildren come into more contact with people of religions and cultures different from their parents. Some of the same politicians talking about the problems of 'multiculturalism' have also strengthened it by supporting faith based schools which hinder the normal process of integration through going to the same schools. Encouraging integration by offering e.g free English classes and community centres and evening classes is fine, but the idea that people should be 'made' to integrate is verging on fascism. How much or how little people want to be involved with others and in what ways are up to them, whether they're immigrants or not. The same goes for imposing one version of what it means to be British or French or German on everyone and demanding they all adopt it.

Though we could yet avoid it, we are risking heading towards a situation like the one in the Great Depression where anti-Semitism against Jewish immigrants and hatred of gypsies combined with austerity policies to lead to fascism, though this time the targets of opportunity for the hate mongers are Muslims and immigrants.

The far right switch targets of opportunity – from Jews to Muslims

The leader of the British National Party and a second candidate – Andrew Brons – were elected as members of the European Parliament in 2008. Griffin had previously written of the “courage” and “sacrifice” of the Waffen SS and in 1998 told a court that the Holocaust never happened and was a mixture of “lies” and propaganda”, while Brons had been a member of the British National Socialist Movement and used to chant “death to Jews” at rallies (45) – (47).

After September 11th though Griffin and his party renounced those views, realising that it was now more popular to spread hatred of Muslims than to spread hatred of Jews. The party changed it’s rules to allow Jews to become members and reversed it’s rhetoric on Israel from unthinking hatred to unthinking and unconditional support for the Israeli government, including Griffin boasting of his support for the Israeli ‘Operation Cast Lead’ which killed over a thousand civilians.

Similarly Gianfranco Fini, who  between 2001 And 2004 held the posts of Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister in the Italian government, was famous in the 1980s through to 1994 for his proud boast that his MSI (Italian Social Movement) party was a fascist party led by the proud heirs of Mussolini who “was the greatest Italian statesman of the twentieth century”.

Yet by 2003 Fini had travelled to Israel to apologise for the shameful way Italian Jews were sent to the German concentration camps by Mussolini’s fascists – and in 2009, as President of the Italian parliament, Fini said that protesters in Turin burning Israeli flags was “far more serious” than a neo-fascist gang beating a man to death (48).

This is clearly more political opportunism than any kind of change of beliefs at work. When challenged during a BBC debate on his past Holocast denial, Griffin merely answered “I can't tell you why I used to say those things anymore than I can tell you why I have changed my mind” (49). I think I can. After September 11th it became more popular to blame all Muslims for the actions of Al Qa’ida than to try to blame all Jews for some of the actions of the Israeli government and military, so Muslims became the new targets of opportunity along with immigrants and gypsies.

The Real Threats to Democracy – Mass unemployment caused by neo-liberal economic and public spending policies combined with scapegoating of immigrants and religious minorities – just as in the 1930s

British fascist leader Oswald Mosley and his Nazi style blackshirts in London during the Great Depression of the 1930s

The real threat to democracy and European and national values of tolerance comes from the extreme right and the growing belief in the myths that they spread. This is made worse by mainstream parties seeming to give credibility to many of these myths by competing to by “tougher on immigration”, by their demands that European Muslims “deal with the extremists in their midst” as though Muslims were all responsible for Al Qa’ida (note no similar calls for Christians to sort out the extreme fundamentalists in their midst after the Norwegian attack by a Christian extremist) and by their constant references to the British National Party and other hard right extremists as if they were the only alternative to the big parties, ignoring Green parties, socialists, Independent candidates and others.

It would be interesting to see a poll of non-Muslims in the UK, Norway or Europe on how many sympathise with the motives of the Norwegian lunatic and how many think his actions were justified. Given the levels of support for the BNP, the English Defence League and others the results would probably give much more cause for concern.

Geert Wilders extreme right ‘Freedom Party’ in the Netherlands won more seats than one of the major parties – the Christian Democrats – in a 2010 election campaign run with adverts showing women clad in burkhas getting pensions before white Dutch women, who were left with none (50).

This threat is made more serious by mass unemployment, welfare cuts and 1930s style austerity policies which risk a second recession. Unemployment, not immigration, has always been the main factor boosting support for the hard right.

When the last textile factories in the North of England closed in the late 90s there were race riots in the towns of Oldham, Bradford and Burnley where the factories had been - and the vote of the BNP rose, getting them several council seats (51) – (52). After the current recession the BNP increased its vote and had MEPs elected for the first time in the UK and since the 2010 elections in the Netherlands the government is reliant on the ‘Freedom Party’ for majorities in votes.

Sarkozy’s government in France and Berlusconis in Italy have also become increasingly anti-immigration in their policies and rhetoric and neo-fascist parties like Fini’s ‘Future and Freedom’ party have been part of the governing coalition in Italy for most of the period since1994.

The current rise of the far right parallels the rise of the Nazis in German during the Great Depression (pointed out by Aneurin Bevan in his book ‘In Place of Fear’ which my blog is named after), in terms of free trade and reduced welfare and public sector employment having led to rising unemployment, with minority religious groups and immigrants used as scapegoats, leading to the rise of the far right.

 Bevan showed that the vote for the Nazi party in Germany from 1924 to 1933 rose and fell as the numbers of unemployed did (Bevan 1952 – Chapter 1, note I). In the 1928 elections when unemployment was around 1.3 million the Nazis won only 12 seats in the Reichstag. In 1932 when unemployment had risen to 5.6 million they became the largest party with 230 seats. (Unemployment figures are from Bevan, election results from this BBC history page) (53) – (54).

Current austerity policies in Europe and Republican party obstruction of Obama’s and the Democrats’ attempts to create some kind of new New Deal to create jobs and economic growth again are risking not only a second recession but also boosting the far right again as a result of even higher unemployment. We have to put pressure on our governments to change policy in case they end up repeating the mistakes of the 1930s.


Sources

(1) = Telegraph 08 Aug 2009 ‘Muslim Europe: the demographic time bomb transforming our continent’,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/5994047/Muslim-Europe-the-demographic-time-bomb-transforming-our-continent.html

(2) = New York Sun 11 Jun 2004 ‘Muslim Europe’ by Daniel Pipes,http://www.danielpipes.org/1796/muslim-europe

(3) = National Interest March-April 2007 ‘Europe's Stark Options’,http://www.danielpipes.org/4323/europes-stark-options

(4) =Jerusalem Post 03 Jan 2008 ‘Will Europe Resist Islamization?’,http://www.danielpipes.org/5503/will-europe-resist-islamization

(5) = Restvradrini.com 11 Apr 2011 ‘Daniel Pipes: “You can’t fight Islamism with ideas coming out of Europe”’,http://www.revistadrini.com/2011/04/02/daniel-pipes-you-cant-fight-islamism-with-ideas-coming-out-of-europe-3/

(6) = Channel 4 news 25 jul 2011 ‘Norway gunman claims two more terror cells exist’,http://www.channel4.com/news/norway-gunman-to-appear-in-court ; ‘Arriving to angry scenes after Norway had observed a minute's silence to honour the dead, Breivik said his fight was against "cultural Marxism" and a Muslim takeover of Europe. He added that his objective was "to give a sharp signal to the people" and to make the Labour party pay "the price of their treason."

(7) = Channel 4 news 23 jul 2011 ‘Norway attacks Anders Behring Breivik profile’, http://www.channel4.com/news/oslo-attacks-anders-behring-breivik-profile ; ‘ Other posts under Breivik's name criticise European policies of trying to accommodate the cultures of different ethnic groups, and claim a significant minority of young British Muslims back radical Islamic militancy…. In one posting he called for the establishment of a "Norwegian EDL" and he claims to have had contact with it and another far-right organisation, Stop the Islamification of Europe’

(8) = Channel 4 News 24 Jul 2011 ‘Norwegian gunman tells police he acted alone’, http://www.channel4.com/news/norwegian-gunman-tells-police-he-acted-alone ; ‘He also attacked "the Islamic colonisation and Islamisation of Western Europe" and "rise of cultural Marxism/multiculturalism".

The facts and figures on Muslim vs non-Muslim immigration and birth rates in Europe

 (9) = Daily Mail 13 Sep 2008 ‘'Have more babies and Muslims can take over the UK' hate fanatic says, as warning comes that 'next 9/11 will be in UK'’, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1054909/Have-babies-Muslims-UK-hate-fanatic-says-warning-comes-9-11-UK.html

(10) = Pew Research Center 27 Jan 2011 ‘The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Projections for 2010-2030 ; region – Europe’ , http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-europe.aspx ; See second graphic – ‘Europe - Muslims as a share of overall population 1999 – 2030’

(11) = Pew Research Center 27 Jan 2011 ‘The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Projections for 2010-2030 ; region – Europe’ , http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-europe.aspx ; See third graphic – ‘Europe – Annual Population growth rates for Muslims and non-Muslims’

(12) = Pew Research Center 27 Jan 2011 ‘The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Projections for 2010-2030 ; region – Europe’ , http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-europe.aspx ; See thirteenth graphic (below sub-heading ‘Migration’) – ‘Europe – Net Muslim migration to selected countries 2010’

(13) = BBC News 13 Aug 2008 ‘Q&A: EU immigration policy’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7667169.stm

(14) = Tomas Frejka, Jan Michael Hoem, Laurent Toulemon, Tomas Sobotka (editors) (2009) ‘Childbearing trends and policies in Europe, Volume 1’ in Demographic Research , Vol 19, Articles I – X, pages 11 & 231,http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=dUHXPHaZE6cC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false (on the fact that  all immigrants having higher fertility levels than existing citizens of the EU and on convergence of birth rates between the two over time due to immigrant birth rate falling)

(15) = Nadja Milewski (2010) ‘Immigration fertility in west Germany : Is there a socialisation effect in transition to second and third births’,http://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/files/peer/Peer_184-2010-11-11.pdf

(16) = Thomas Sobotka (2007) ‘Overview Chapter 7: The rising importance of migrants for childbearing in Europe’, in Demographic Research 1 Jul 2008 (VOLUME 19 - ARTICLE 9, pages 225 – 248, http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/9/

(17) = Joop Garssen & Han Nicolaas (2008) ‘Fertility of Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands: Adjustment to native level within one generation’, in  Demographic Research 18 Jul 2008 (vol 19 article 33, pages 1249 – 1280) , http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/33/

(18) = BBC radio 4 ‘Disproving the Muslim Demographics sums’ 07 Aug 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8189434.stm ;  (relates to claims made by Geert Wilders’ Freedom party in the Netherlands on Muslim birth rates there)

(19) = Mary Mederios Kent (2008) ‘Do Muslims Have More Children Than Other Women in Western Europe?’ in Population Bureau February 2008,http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/muslimsineurope.aspx

(20) = Time 15 Feb 2011 ‘After Revolution, Italy Faces Flood of Tunisian Migrants’, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2049216,00.html#ixzz1UTuIVWT3

(21) = EU Business 20 Mar 2011 ‘Libya suspends help on illegal EU immigration’,http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/libya-unrest.95w/

(22) = Migration Policy Institute 2010 ‘Migration and Immigrants Two Years after the Financial Collapse: Where Do We Stand?’,http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/MPI-BBCreport-2010.pdf

Most European Muslims are not extreme fundamentalists

(23) = Telegraph 19 Feb 2006  ‘Poll reveals 40pc of Muslims want sharia law in UK’,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1510866/Poll-reveals-40pc-of-Muslims-want-sharia-law-in-UK.html

(24) = Council on Foreign Relations 10 Nov 2010 ‘Islam: Governing Under Sharia’,http://www.cfr.org/religion/islam-governing-under-sharia/p8034#p2

(25) United States Institute of Peace & The Center for Study of Islam and Democracy ‘Itjihad – Reinterpreting Islamic Principles for the 21st Century’, http://www.usip.org/files/resources/sr125.pdf

(26) = See (22) above

(27) = BBC News 06 Feb 2009 ‘Turkish contradictions test Islam’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7873081.stm

A global extremist ideology with far more believers than Al Qa’ida – and far more influential ones

(28) = guardian.co.uk 27 Jul 2011 ‘Ex-Berlusconi minister defends Anders Behring Breivik’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/27/ex-berlusconi-minister-defends-breivik

(29) = BBC News 27 Jul 2011 ‘Italy MEP backs ideas of Norway killer Breivik’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14315108

(30) = See (2) to (5) above

(31) = Independent 26 Jul 2011 ‘The right-wing columnists in killer's 'manifesto'’,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/the-rightwing-columnists-in-killers-manifesto-2325918.html

(32) = The Spectator Magazine 11 May 2002 ‘How the West was Lost’ by Melanie Phillips,http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/all/9980/part_6/how-the-west-was-lost.thtml

(33) = Wall Street Journal 25 Jul 2011 ‘Inside the Mind of the Oslo Murderer’, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903999904576465801154130960.html?mod=WSJ_article_comments#articleTabs%3Darticle

(34) = CBS News 27 Mar 2011 ‘Newt Gingrich warns U.S. at risk of atheism and radical Islam’, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20048494-503544.html

(35) = CNSNews.com 26 Jul 2011 ‘Pat Buchanan: A Fire Bell in the Night for Norway’, http://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/article/pat-buchanan-fire-bell-night-norway

(36) = guardian.co.uk 26 Jul 2011 ‘Anders Behring Breivik had links to far-right EDL, says anti-racism group’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/26/anders-behring-breivik-edl-searchlight

Big parties in government adopting far right rhetoric and policies, strengthening the far right

(37) = BBC News 20 Aug 2010 ‘France sends Roma Gypsies back to Romania’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11020429

(38) = Guardian.co.uk 19 Aug 2010 ‘France pushes forward Roma deportations: 'They are trying to get rid of us all'’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/19/france-begins-roma-deportations

(39) = guardian.co.uk 30 May 2011 ‘Silvio Berlusconi faces humiliation as Milan voters support leftwing mayor’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/30/silvio-berlusconi-defeat-in-milan

(40) = Aaron Goldman (1984) ‘The Resurgence of Antisemitism in Britain during World War II’, in ‘Jewish Social Studies’, Vol. 46, No. 1 (Winter, 1984), pp. 37-50 , http://www.jstor.org/stable/4467242

Governments claiming ‘multiculturalism has failed’ has boosted the far right

(41) = BBC News 07 Feb 2011 ‘State multiculturalism has failed, says David Cameron’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12371994

(42) = BBC News 11 Feb 2011 ‘Sarkozy declares multiculturalism "a failure"’,http://www.france24.com/en/20110210-multiculturalism-failed-immigration-sarkozy-live-broadcast-tf1-france-public-questions

(43) = BBC News 17 Oct 2010 ‘Merkel says German multicultural society has failed’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11559451

(44) = British National Party 05 Feb 2011 ‘Cameron’s ‘War on Multiculturalism’ Speech – Another Milestone in the ‘Griffinisation’ of British Politics’, http://www.bnp.org.uk/news/cameron%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%98war-multiculturalism%E2%80%99-speech-%E2%80%93-another-milestone-%E2%80%98griffinisation%E2%80%99-british-politics

The far right switch targets of opportunity – from Jews to Muslims

(45) = Daily Mail 25 May 2009 ‘Family of Winston Churchill slams BNP over far-right party's attempt to hijack wartime leader's legacy’, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1187368/Family-Winston-Churchill-slams-BNP-far-right-partys-attempt-hijack-wartime-leaders-legacy.html

(46) = BBC 25 Nov 2000 ‘Panorama : Under the Skin’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/programmes/2001/bnp_special/roots/1998.stm ; Griffin told a court in 1998 that “I am well aware that the orthodox opinion is that 6 million Jews were gassed and cremated and turned into lampshades. Orthodox opinion also once held that the world is flat... I have reached the conclusion that the 'extermination' tale is a mixture of Allied wartime propaganda, extremely profitable lie, and latter witch-hysteria."

(47) = Telegraph 09 Jun 2009 ‘European elections 2009: BNP Andrew Brons profile’, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/5478006/European-elections-2009-BNP-Andrew-Brons-profile.html

(48) = Time 06 May 2008 ‘Italian Rightist Sparks Outrage’,http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1737829,00.html ; ‘Gianfranco Fini, the president of the Italian Parliament, is facing a firestorm of controversy after saying that the May 1 burning of Israeli flags in Turin by far-left protesters was "much more serious" than the savage beating of a 29-year-old that same day in Verona by a neo-Nazi gang. The victim of the beating, Nicola Tommasoli, died late Monday after several days in a coma.’

(49) = BBC News 22 Oct 2009 ‘Angry scenes face Griffin at BBC’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8321157.stm

The Real Threats to Democracy – Mass unemployment caused by neo-liberal economic and public spending policies combined with scapegoating of immigrants and religious minorities – just as in the 1930s

(50) = BBC News 23 Jun 2011 ‘Netherlands Islam Freedom: Profile of Geert Wilders’,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11443211

(51) = BBC News 03 July 2001 ‘Race riot town seeks answers’,http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1420334.stm

(52) = Guardian 04 May 2002 ‘Gains by far right but relief for ministers’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2002/may/04/localgovelections.politics

(53) = Aneurin Bevan (1952) ‘ In Place of Fear’ Quartet Books, London, 1990, Chapter 1, note I, page 31

(54) = BBC GCSE bitesize ‘History – Hitler’s rise to power’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/history/mwh/germany/hitlerpowerrev1.shtml

Friday, July 29, 2011

The causes of the famine in Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia – and why donating aid to Africa does save lives

People in the Horn of Africa, especially Somalia, are starving in their millions due to a famine and the failure of developed country governments and people to donate enough money for food aid to feed them (1) – (2). The famine has five main causes – the worst drought in 60 years (possibly worsened worsened by climate change), civil war (lengthened by US and Ethiopian involvement), wealthy Africans and foreign investors buying up land and water for commercial farming, overpopulation; and some factions in the anti-American side in the civil war – Al Shabab –who target aid workers or refuse to let them in. Overpopulation is far from the only cause and would require increased aid (with very different conditions on it) to reverse it, not the end of aid which many are wrongly advocating.

Those who claim ‘foreign aid hasn’t worked’ as an excuse for not donating this time are confusing long-term  development aid with emergency humanitarian aid for famine victims, which definitely saves lives. Those who blame Somalians might as well be saying cancer victims must have done something wrong to deserve it (especially to starving children).

 Foreign aid has failed to produce enough development from the 1980s on because donor governments, the IMF and the World Bank have only given it on conditions that prevent development. It’s been based on a myth that developed countries became developed through total free trade, which has been used to make aid conditional on complete free trade policies by developing countries. In fact development economist Ha Joon Chang in his book ‘Bad Samaritans’ has shown that all developed countries developed their industries through government intervention, subsidies and protection – and that’s the only way developing countries can develop (3).

The idea that humanitarian aid organisations like the UN’s World Food Programme have failed, or that aid and development charities like Oxfam have failed, is simply false though. Their emergency aid has saved lives and so has their development aid, but the latter is not on a large enough scale to produce major economic development in the absence of similar government aid and fair trade.

If you want to just donate rather than read the rest you can donate in the UK to the Disasters Emergency Committee on this link or from anywhere in the world to the UN World Food Programme on this link or to the International Red Cross on this link.)

Otherwise read on for more details on the causes of the famine and solutions – the donation links and others are repeated at the end.


Drought

Even camels are dying in this drought

The most immediate cause is the worst drought in 60 years in the Horn of Africa (4) While there have been droughts in the Horn of Africa for centuries, their frequency has increased from a 10 year cycle to a 5 year one and then recently to one every 2 to 3 years (5).

Climate change caused by developed world CO2 emissions can’t be ruled out as one of the causes. The US Geological Survey predicted in January that droughts in East Africa would be more likely due to rising global temperatures, while climate scientists are coming to a concensus that extreme weather events have become so extreme and common that the link with climate change must be investigated (6) – (7).


Somalia's Civil War – and US government involvement in continuing it

Equally important as an immediate cause is the decades long civil war (kept going by the US government’s backing for warlords they say are fighting against others they allege are allied to Al Qa’ida, under both Bush and Obama ; and by a US backed Ethiopian invasion from 2007 to 2009, which re-started  the civil war after it had briefly ended in late 2006 ) . This is less straightforward than it sounds as  some of the warlords previously identified as the worst in by the US in the past are now being supported by it. Ethiopian soldiers who have been at war with Somalia many times due to a dispute over who owns the Ogaden region , slit Somalian villagers’ throats “like goats”, stabbed out teenagers’ eyes with bayonets and committed many rapes. The Ethiopian invasion (now ended) and US air and drone strikes targeting Al Shabab and Al Qa’ida leaders across the country, along with CIA detention and torture centers in Mogadishu, have increased support for the Al Shabab rebels (8) – (20).  

The war is definitely a primary cause of the famine - the worst famines in the region in the past came during the heaviest fighting in civil and international wars (21).


Al Shabab – why they aren’t all preventing all aid getting through – and they’re not getting UN aid money

Third is Al Shabab – the allegedly Al Qa’ida supporting side which the US opposes in the civil war, some of whom have said they’ve lifted their previous ban on western aid agencies operating in their territory (and killings of aid workers), while others say it will continue and deny there’s a famine. This seems to be bechttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifause Al Shabab is more a loose alliance of groups than a single organisation (22) – (24).

This does not mean it will be impossible to get aid through. Some Shabab factions are letting aid in (25). The Al Shabab ban only applied to four foreign aid agencies – Care, the UN Development Programme, the UN’s World Food Programme and the International Medical Corps (26). Some villages and areas supposedly under Al Shabab control are letting aid agencies in. Some towns and villages in areas where Al Shabab factions have refused to let foreign aid in are also changing sides in order to get aid for their people (27) – (28). Many aid organisations, like the World Food Programme, were already delivering aid through local Somalian charities (29).

The factions among Al Shabab refusing to allow aid in are not an unprecedented problem. There have been problems of looting by criminal gunmen and pirates for decades (30).

In the last few years US funding for humanitarian aid in Somalia fell massively due to US government restrictions on funding for aid in Somalia, designed to prevent any money getting into Al Shabab’s hands , which have only recently been loosened (and not enough according to some aid workers) (31)

There have been many false claims made by extreme right bloggers like Pamela Geller (of the US Tea Party Republican faction) that UN aid money has gone to Al Shabab. In fact UN food and medical aid has been given to Al Shabab drought committees to distribute in some areas where it’s the only way to get aid to the people (32) – (33).

Geller asks ‘How much money is left over for food after buying weapons and qurans?’. No money – because it’s food and medical aid, Pamela - and there was no money involved

The reliability of Geller’s claims can be judged by some of her other blog posts in which she for instance implied  that the Norway terrorist shootings committed by Anders Behring Breivik were the result of an Islamist ‘Jihad’ and that all rapes in the past 5 years in Norway had been committed by Muslims (34). 


Land - Grazing land and water supplies bought up by US , European, Chinese and Saudi firms for commercial farming, leaving less for herders

Fourth, a major long term cause is land previously available for nomadic grazing being taken over for commercial farming for profit, much of it bought up by foreign firms and governments (35) – (38). 

A large proportion of the population of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia have survived for centuries (and probably thousands of years) as nomadic pastoralists or herders, with small flocks of goats and cattle (and more recently camels). In the past they survived periodic droughts by constantly moving their herds to where there was water and grazing, often across borders between modern countries (39).

However a wealthy minority of Africans and Big American, European and Chinese hedge funds and firms Saudi sheikhs and companies have been buying up large amounts of land in Africa (including Kenya and Ethiopia) for commercial agriculture for profit, much of it in the river valleys and estuaries the herders moved to during droughts in the past (40).

This is partly because much of the Middle East and the desert states of the US such as California, Texas and Arizona (along with Florida) have depleted their acquifers and are running out of water and having to import more food – and partly because foreign investors see profits to be made from producing food as prices rise due to population growth and land previously used for farming becoming desert or being used for bio-fuels (41) – (46).

Chinese government backed investors have been doing the same as it’s rising population, growing water shortages and building on and polluting of farmland is leaving it requiring more food imports (47) – (49)


Why Trading in Food ‘futures’ should be banned

Many hedge funds, pension funds, banks other investors have begun also trading in food ‘futures’ – bets on the price a commodity will reach by a certain date. This and the lack of any regulation preventing them buying and storing large amounts of food to drive up prices and make them more likely to win their bet and profit from it is also increasing food prices and making it harder for the poorest to afford food. Trading in food futures was illegal until the banks and hedge funds lobbied governments to legalise it – it should be banned again and forever. (50) – (52)


Overpopulation  – is as much caused by poverty as a cause of it, so requires aid to end it, but aid with very different conditions

Overpopulation in sub-Saharan Africa is a serious problem and caused largely by high birth rates, but it’s a problem which can only be solved by development. That development can only be brought about by increasing aid (and changing the conditions on it) to provide education, contraception, development, healthcare and unemployment benefit. That development has to be combined with fairer trade – meaning allowing African countries to protect their industries more than reducing limits on exports to the developed world. This is because high birth rates are as much a symptom of poverty and lack of development as a cause of it.

The poorest countries have a high infant mortality rate ( over 20 times as many children die before reaching their teens in Somalia as in the UK) and low life expectancy (average life expectancy in Somalia is 48 compared to 79 in the UK), both problems caused by food shortages and lack of clean water and healthcare, as well as inequality and poverty.

On top of this in countries with little or no welfare state the only way people in poverty can ensure they’ll be looked after if they become too ill or old to work or to farm their own land or look after their herd is to have enough children to do it. Since many will die as infants or adults, that means having more children.

The United Nations Population Fund has found that the poorest 20% of the population in developing countries has double the birth rate of the wealthiest 20% (53).

Even taking into account high infant mortality rates and low life expectancy population is still rising too fast due to high birth rates though, leading to shortages of clean water, food and jobs (54).

Other contributing causes include traditions of having big families to honour ancestors or for the prestige of the family or clan, low social status of women, lack of education and being unable to get access to contraceptives (55). Urbanisation is reducing birth rates by changing social norms and the status of women and giving women access to contraception and family planning (56) – (57).

Birth rates in Africa have also been falling rapidly due to higher income and education levels in towns and cities, though they seem to have stopped falling in the last few years in Kenya and in Ethiopia (58).

Birth rates only fell in the developed countries after people became wealthier, less dependent on agriculture and less dependent on human labour for it (due to mechanisation), urbanised (as industries other than agriculture developed, providing more employment in cities) and provided government funded education, healthcare and welfare for unemployment ,sickness, disability and pensions. The same has happened in the urban areas in some African countries, in towns and cities which have seen economic growth. The effects have been limited by overall economic decline in African countries from the 1980s on and the lack of government support – and remain higher in rural areas.  

There is a strong negative correlation between literacy rates and birth rates (i.e  the more people in a country can read and write the fewer children they have per adult), suggesting providing funding for education could be effective in reducing over-population.

Some UN experts say population in some parts of Kenya has doubled in the past decade (though herd sizes remain unchanged (59). The fact that herd sizes have not increased makes it unlikely that over-grazing has caused the drought, though human over-population means more people have less to live on.

Those claiming the famine is Somalians and Kenyans’ own fault as they should use contraception and become more educated to reduce birth rates also ignore the fact that condoms cost money, as does education. If they demand Somalis and Kenyans use contraception they need to donate more money to provide for this.

Development – in terms of economy, education and public services and welfare – is strongly correlated with falling birth rates, just as lower birth rates make development easier and higher ones make it harder. As UNFPA say though, lower birth rates do not guarantee development. This requires ending harmful absolute free trade conditions on aid, such as demands for privatisation of state industries and public services, welfare cuts and abolition of tariffs and other protections.

Even if all restrictions on trade between Africa and the developed world were abolished tomorrow African traders, farmers and businesses could not compete with companies and industries built up over centuries by protection and subsidy till they were world leaders. It would also be a levelling down process to African standards of living for the majority rather than a levelling up of African standards of living. That’s why allowing Africa to protect its farmers and industries and set up free trade areas only with countries at a similar level of development is better than total free trade.


Why there’s no excuse for not donating

Despite all this, both governments and people in developed countries are failing to donate enough money for emergency food aid and many people are even calling for the starving to be left to starve as part of their ideological crusade against all foreign aid or a mistaken belief that they are being conned as they’ve given to famine relief for Somalia in the past and are being asked to again now (see e.g comments on this Independent newspaper article).

This has to change and change now. Whatever your views on development aid this is emergency aid which has to be delivered now to keep millions alive long enough for longer term solutions to be put in place.

There is a lot wrong with many governments’ and IMF and World Bank aid programmes and they need reformed, but pretending that Africans would be better off if we provided them with no foreign aid at all is the real con trick. Some people are conning themselves into believing what they want to believe, so they don’t have to feel any guilt for letting millions of adults and children starve, rather than contribute a small fraction of their own income and taxes to saving their lives.

The causes of the drought and civil war need to be addressed, but we can’t leave millions of people to die while we address them. They need emergency humanitarian food and water aid now – we know from past crises this will save lives.


What you can do

If you’re in the UK you can donate to the Disasters Emergency Committee (an umbrella group of all the major aid agencies and charities) donate in the UK to the Disasters Emergency Committee on this link .

You can donate from anywhere in the world to the UN World Food Programme on this link or to the International Red Cross on this link

You can also contact your MP or members of congress and the ministry that deals with foreign aid in your country (e.g US Aid in the US or the Department for International Development in the UK) to ask them to donate more to the UN’s East Africa famine appeal and/or to ask them to increase foreign aid to the poorest countries ;  and ensure any contracts funded with foreign aid go to companies based in the recipient country rather than the donor country wherever possible – and to recommend they read Ha Joon Chang’s book ‘Bad Samaritans’ and adopt aid policies that permit poorer countries to protect and subsidise their economy and public services from foreign competition so they can develop.


Sources


(1) = Oxfam 21 Jun 2011 ‘Famine in Somalia: Causes and solutions’, http://www.oxfamamerica.org/articles/famine-in-somalia-causes-and-solutions

(2) = Independent 21 Jul 2011 ‘Millions could die of hunger as drought grips Horn of Africa’,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/millions-could-die-of-hunger-as-drought-grips-horn-of-africa-2317831.html

(3) = Ha Joon Chang (2007) ‘Bad Samaritans’, Random House, London, 2008


Sources on Drought and possible link with climate change

(4) = See (2) above

(5) = The Economist 24 Sep 2009 ‘East Africa's drought - A catastrophe is looming’,http://www.economist.com/node/14506436 ; ‘The drought cycle in east Africa has been contracting sharply. Rains used to fail every nine or ten years. Then the cycle seemed to go down to five years. Now, it seems, the region faces drought every two or three years. The time for recovery—for rebuilding stocks of food and cattle—is ever shorter. And if the rains fail before the end of this year, an unimaginably dreadful catastrophe could ensue.’

(6) = US Geological Survey 28 Jan 2011 ‘More Frequent Drought Likely in Eastern Africa’,http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article_pf.asp?ID=2690

(7) = Independent 01 Jul 2011 ‘Extreme weather link 'can no longer be ignored'’,http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/extreme-weather-link-can-no-longer-be-ignored-2305181.html

Sources on US involvement in keeping the civil war going

(8) = Independent 09 Feb 2008 ‘Somalia: The World's forgotten catastrophe’, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/somalia-the-worlds-forgotten-catastrophe-778225.html

(9) = Wikipedia entry for ‘Somali civil war’,http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somali_Civil_War#Rise_and_fall_of_the_ICU.2C_Ethiopian_intervention.2C_and_the_TFG_.282006.E2.80.932009.29

(10) = New York Times 06 Jun 2006 ‘Somali Islamists Declare Victory; Warlords on Run’,http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/06/world/africa/06somalia.html (says Bush administration funded Somalian secular warlords with around $100,000 to $150,000 a month)

(11) = USA Today 08 Jan 2007 ‘U.S. support key to Ethiopia's invasion’,http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2007-01-07-ethiopia_x.htm

(12) = Guardian 13 Jan 2007 ‘How US forged an alliance with Ethiopia over invasion’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/jan/13/alqaida.usa

(13) = Amnesty International UK 06 Jan 2008 ‘Somalia: Troops killing people 'like goats' by slitting throats-new Amnesty report’, http://www.amnesty.org.uk/news_details.asp?NewsID=17747

(14) = Independent 22 Nov 2007 ‘Somalia war-refugee crisis surpasses Darfur in its horror’,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/somalia-warrefugee-crisis-surpasses-darfur-in-its-horror-759034.html

(15) = Washington Post 25 Jun 2009 ‘U.S. Sends Weapons to Help Somali Government Repel Rebels Tied to Al-Qaeda’,http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/24/AR2009062403495.html

(16) = AP 25 Jun 2009 ‘U.S. to give Somali government guns, training’,http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31549172/ns/world_news-africa/t/us-give-somali-government-guns-training/

(17) = CBC radio 20 jul 2011 ‘Somalia: Jeremy Scahill’, http://www.cbc.ca/thecurrent/interviews/2011/07/20/somalia-jeremy-scahill/ (covers US support for warlords who they previously said were the worst and their main targets)

(18) = The Nation 12 Jul 2011 ‘The CIA’s secret sites in Somalia’ , http://www.thenation.com/article/161936/cias-secret-sites-somalia

(19) = Time 18 Sep 2009 ‘After a U.S. Air Strike, Somali Peacekeepers Pay’,http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1924902,00.html

(20) = Guardian 30 Jun 2011 ‘US extends drone strikes to Somalia’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/30/us-drone-strikes-somalia

(21) = BBC News 14 Jul 2011 ‘Horn of Africa drought: Why is Somalia worst affected?’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14143562

Sources on Al Shabab and to what extent it’s preventing aid getting in

(22) = Channel 4 News (UK) 07 Jul 2011 ‘Somali rebels lift ban on food-aid’, http://www.channel4.com/news/somali-rebels-lift-ban-on-food-aid

(23) = guardian.co.uk 22 Jul 2011 ‘Somali rebels deny lifting ban on foreign aid groups’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/22/somali-rebels-deny-lifting-ban

(24) = BBC News Africa 24 Jul 2011 ‘Solving Africa’s aid conundrum’, by Andrew Harding, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14269987

(25) = See (24) above

(26) = BBC News 22 Jul 2011 ‘Somali Islamists maintain aid ban and deny famine’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14246764 ; Agencies banned by al-Shabab – Care, International Medical Corps, UNDevelopment programme (UNDP), UN World Food Programme (WFP)

(27) = See (24) above

(28) = BBC News Africa 24 Jul 2011 ‘Solving Africa’s aid conundrum’, by Andrew Harding, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14269987 (see  article and first comment by BBC reporter Andrew Harding)


(29) = Reuters 22 Jul 2011 ‘Somali rebels say U.N. food agency still banned’,http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/22/us-somalia-famine-idUSTRE76L2HK20110722; ‘"The approach is to test the ground, to probe and see how far we get," WFP spokesman, David Orr, told Reuters…The WFP delivers its food in Somalia through local aid groups and not directly, Orr said.’

(30) = BBC News 22 Jul 2011 ‘Q&A: East Africa hunger crisis’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14249733 ; It is very difficult to get aid to Somalia - even before al-Shabab banned aid groups, some food deliveries were looted by gunmen and others were held for ransom by pirates…..Agencies banned by al-Shabab – Care, International Medical Corps, UNDevelopment programme (UNDP), UN World Food Programme (WFP)

(31) = Wall Street Journal 21 Jul 2011 ‘Somalia Famine Threatens to Spread’, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903554904576457721297830248.html ; ‘Aid group Oxfam said $1 billion is needed for famine relief. On Wednesday, the U.S. announced an additional $28 million in emergency funding atop $431 million in assistance already given this year. Most importantly, those new U.S. funds won't be placed under restrictions implemented in 2009 to keep food and money from being stolen by Islamic militants. Aid groups have called for the restrictions to be lifted entirely and said the rules have severely limited their operations. U.S. humanitarian contributions in Somalia fell from $237 million in 2008 to $29 million last year

(32) = Pamela Geller’s Atlas Shrugs blog 17 Jul 2011 ‘Somalia: UN Humanitarian Aid Going to Jihadist Groups’, http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2011/07/somalia-un-humanitarian-aid-going-to-jihadist-groups.html#comment-6a00d8341c60bf53ef0154341092e9970c

(33) = BBC News 17 Jul 2011 ‘Somalia drought: Aid for camps under Islamists’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14178953

(34) = Pamela Geller’s Atlas Shrugs blog 22 Jul 2011 ‘"Long Peaceful Norway" ....... Not’, http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2011/07/long-peaceful-norway-not-.html

Sources on land being bought up for commercial farming as a cause of famine in the Horn of Africa

(35) = Guardian.co.uk 20 Jul 2011 ‘Food aid is needed desperately - but ultimately it is not the answer’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2011/jul/20/famine-africa-result-modern-parctice

(36) = Guardian.co.uk 08 Jun 2011 ‘US universities in Africa 'land grab' - Institutions including Harvard and Vanderbilt reportedly use hedge funds to buy land in deals that may force farmers out’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/08/us-universities-africa-land-grab

(37) = Observer 07 Mar 2010 ‘How food and water are driving a 21st-century African land grab’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/mar/07/food-water-africa-land-grab

(38) = Observer 07 Mar 2010 ‘Deals can be good news when not made behind closed doors’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/mar/07/africa-land-grab-food-water 

(39) =  See (35) above

(40) = See (35) – (38) above

(41) = guardian.co.uk 22 April 2011 ‘This will be the Arab world's next battle’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/apr/22/water-the-next-arab-battle

(42) = U.S Geological Survey Fact Sheet 103-03, November 2003, ‘Ground-Water Depletion Across the Nation’, http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-103-03/

(43) = Reuters 14 Dec 2009 ‘California aquifers seen rapidly losing water’, http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/12/15/us-water-california-idUSTRE5BE0FP20091215

(44) = Guardian.co.uk 08 Jun 2011 ‘US universities in Africa 'land grab' - Institutions including Harvard and Vanderbilt reportedly use hedge funds to buy land in deals that may force farmers out’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/08/us-universities-africa-land-grab

(45) = Observer 07 Mar 2010 ‘How food and water are driving a 21st-century African land grab’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/mar/07/food-water-africa-land-grab

(46) = Guardian 05 Apr 2008 ‘UN chief calls for review of biofuels policy’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/05/biofuels.food

(47) = guardian.co.uk 23 Feb 2010 ‘China's soil deterioration may become growing food crisis, adviser claims’ – ‘China faces struggle to feed population as pollution and urbanisation threaten supply, says government expert’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/23/china-soil-deterioration-food-supply

(48) = guardian.co.uk 28 Jun 2011 ‘China told to reduce food production or face 'dire' water levels’ – ‘Food must be imported and water use tightly regulated to protect dwindling supply, a leading groundwater expert has warned’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/28/china-food-water

(49) = Observer 07 Mar 2010 ‘How food and water are driving a 21st-century African land grab’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/mar/07/food-water-africa-land-grab

Sources on futures trading in food driving up food prices

(50) = Guardian 19 Jul 2010 ‘Hedge funds accused of gambling with lives of the poorest as food prices soar’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jul/19/speculators-commodities-food-price-rises

(51) = Guardian Poverty Matters blog 16 May 2011 ‘Rising food prices: the role of pension funds’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/may/16/christian-aid-hunger-report-commodities-food-prices

(52) = Observer 25 Jan 2011 ‘Food speculation: 'People die from hunger while banks make a killing on food'’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2011/jan/23/food-speculation-banks-hunger-poverty

Sources on over-population

(53) = UNFPA 2009 Fact Sheet, http://www.unfpa.org/public/home/factsheets/pid/3856#facts

(54) = See (53) above

(55) = Paulina Makinwa-Adebusoye (2001) ‘Socio-cultural factors affecting fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa’ UN, New York, 2001, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/prospectsdecline/makinwa.pdf

(56) = The Economist 27 Apr 2009 ‘Africa's population - The baby bonanza - Is Africa an exception to the rule that countries reap a “demographic dividend” as they grow richer? ‘, http://www.economist.com/node/14302837

(57) = UNFPA (2007) ‘State of the World Population 2007’, Chapter 5, http://www.unfpa.org/swp/2007/english/chapter_5/index.html

(58) = See (56) above

(59) = BBC News 26 Jul 2011 ‘'Top 10 culprits' of Horn of Africa famine’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14291581

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Cameron’s ‘public service reforms’ would mean a privatised but publicly subsidised NHS – without any electoral mandate

Prime Minister David Cameron’s ‘Big Society’ ‘public service reforms’ would be PFI on steroids – the end of free healthcare paid for by taxes and it’s replacement with private healthcare only for those who can afford it, but subsidised by all tax payers and effectively paid for twice by those who can get it – once in taxes and once in charges.

Cameron in his recent speech on ‘public service reform’ and ‘The Big Society’, claimed thatSometimes, a charity or social enterprise trying to come into public services will find strong forces trying to keep them out…vested interests, people who want to stick to the status quo…We need a level playing field so that anyone with a good idea can get involved.’ (1)

Here Cameron pretends that the main bidders for health service contracts will be charities or not-for-profit groups. In fact most bidders will be private healthcare firms such as ‘Assura’ a firm he also referred to in his speech as one which could provideNHS walk in clinic’ services, or privatised GP consortia profit sharing with these firms.’

The Bureau for Investigative Journalism found thatAt least half the board members of some GP consortia, the new bodies that will take over commissioning, have links with… Assura Medical, majority controlled by Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Group… Most were GP members of Assura, meaning their practice had formed a joint company with it…. with profits split 50:50 between Assura Medical and member practices.’ (2)

One of Cameron’s principal advisers on healthcare ‘reform’ is Mark Britnell, who is employed in the Healthcare division of accountancy firm KPMG. He has told private healthcare firms thatGPs will have to aggregate purchasing power and there will be a big opportunity for those companies that can facilitate this process” and that “The NHS will be shown no mercy”. (3) – (4)

Britnell also wrote in the Health Service Journal that the NHS’ ‘funding mechanism is no longer resilient’ and that in future patients will be charged for treatment. (5)

The GP who headed the government’s review of it’s ‘healthcare reform’ policy- Professor Steve Field – has said that introducing internal competition into the NHS would be ‘destroy key services’. He’s also said that allowing private sector patients to be treated in NHS hospitals would open up the NHS to EU competition law, potentially allowing private firms the legal right to be allowed to bid for contracts for all NHS activity. (6) – (7)

Cameron also claimed in the speech that “A study published by the London School of Economics found hospitals in areas with more choice had lower death rates.”

This is true – the study was made by Zack Cooper, an LSE researcher, but it is far from undisputed. Professor Allyson Pollock, an expert on NHS funding, found serious problems with the methodology and the data it used . Pollock concluded that based on Cooper’s studythe only safe conclusion is that if you live near an NHS hospital or have many NHS hospitals in your area, you may get care quicker and be less likely to die from an acute heart attack. This is hardly a ringing endorsement for competition, or the Department of Health policy of centralisation and hospital closures under the expensive private finance initiative.’ (8) – (9)

Pollock, on the proposed healthcare ‘reforms’ in general writes thatThe bill, as designed, will allow commissioners (purchasers of healthcare or insurers) to pick and choose patients and services. It abolishes the duty to secure or provide comprehensive care, and permits GP consortiums to recruit members, and introduce charges and private health insurance, as well as enter into joint ventures with private companies. In a market, insurers and commercial providers must be able to limit their risks by carefully selecting members on the basis of ability to pay and predictable costs.’ (10)

In other words it would mean the end of guaranteed free public healthcare and instead returns to a system where people can only get what healthcare they can pay for. Even worse, the private healthcare firms and privatised or ‘mutualised’ GP consortia would be getting huge taxpayer subsidies without any limit on how much they can charge or any requirement for them to treat people who can’t pay what they demand. (This would repeat the disaster of privatised but publicly subsidised railways).

This would not be greater efficiency or greater choice, but the worst kind of privatisation, including a public subsidy for private firms. It’s not reform, but PFI on steroids.

It will also lead to chaos, with many people lacking vital services in their areas due to the government letting hospitals and schools go under if they fail to compete in internal markets. In fact government ministers have been encouraged by their advisers to allow public sector hospitals to fail in order to hasten “reform” and the entry of the private sector (expect budget cuts to public services like the NHS with claims of lack of the money to fund them, followed by greater levels of public funding appearing for private healthcare firms) (11)

If all this goes ahead we’ll see cases like the one of the American man who had no way to get the healthcare he needed, so in desperation staged a bank robbery of one dollar in order to get sent to jail so he could get treatment (12).

Devolution in Scotland could prevent this happening North of the border, assuming the government don’t try to impose it here by cutting funding or making future funding conditional on such ‘reforms'. That might boost support for independence and Cameron and the Conservatives might want to encourage that to remove a lot of Labour MPs from the British parliament. However while many voters in Scotland would like to avoid involvement in more Iraq and Afghanistan wars by independence, just as many may be nervous of independence after the financial crisis brought down RBS, fearing ending up like Iceland. So with independence no certainty the British government's policies on public services may still affect Scotland's.

Cameron also claimed that New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina provides a model for British public services.

What’s actually happened in New Orleans since Katrina is that people have been forced out of much public housing which was never flooded by armed private mercenary companies like Blackwater and the properties sold off to private developers to build luxury flats to rent. This resulted in mass protests against the enforced evictions and homelessness. To stop this and to stop them trying to return to homes many of them had lived in for decades, many have been sent to trailer parks, surrounded by razor wire fences and guards, effectively imprisoned and not allowed to leave (13) – (16).

That is not a good model to follow. It certainly provides profits for some, but as with Cameron’s plans, at the expense of the majority and especially the poorest. The same goes for government plans for ‘mutualised’ and ‘for profit’ ambulance and fire fighting services (17)

Cameron and the Coalition have no electoral mandate whatsoever for their plan for a privatised, publicly subsidised healthcare system. The plan did not appear in his election campaign or his party’s manifesto – in fact he made election pledges to end the endless and disruptive reorganisation of the NHS (18). A YouGov poll in January showed only 34% support the ‘reforms’ and only 5% ‘strongly’, while 37% oppose them (16% strongly opposing them). The other 30% didn’t know (19)

The more people hear of the details of the ‘reforms’ the more people who supported them are becoming "don't knows" and the more ‘don’t knows’ are becoming opposed. A Comres poll in June found 49% of people thought the NHS reforms should be scrapped, with only 19% supporting them and 32% unsure (20). Only 27% of British voters support allowing private companies to provide NHS services (21). If Cameron goes ahead and attempts privatisation he is virtually certain to be a single term Prime Minister – if he even survives that long.

Finally, Cameron repeatedly made bizarre comparisons to buying mundane services or goods from private firms – for instance ‘You wouldn’t pay for a gym membership and then get told you’re only allowed to use the running machine or only allowed to come in on a Tuesday’ and ‘Imagine you’re buying a mobile phone. You go to the shop – only one shop – and there they’re selling one model of phone. You can guarantee the service wouldn’t be what you’d expect, the quality wouldn’t be great.’

He also claimed that ‘choice’ and ‘competition’ in healthcare will ‘get real value for money’

Cameron ignores the incompatibility of motives between maximising profit by treating only those patients who can pay and those illnesses that are profitable to treat (the primary and often sole aim of private firms) and providing good healthcare, education or social care based on providing it to everyone equally according to need.

Heart operations or cancer treatment or fire-fighting or ambulances are not mobile phones or gym memberships, nor are they comparable to them. Mobile phones are incredibly cheap compared to healthcare and no-one selling mobile phones needs to have had many years of training and experience to sell a mobile phone to someone without endangering their health or life by recommending the wrong phone. A gym membership can affect your health over the longer term, but you won’t die if you can’t afford the gym membership you want. You will die if you can’t afford health care and have a serious illness. Choosing whether to use a running machine does not require years of training, education and experience to avoid someone dying. Healthcare does. As a result private health care will always be more expensive than public sector healthcare as private firms have to make a profit. It also follows that the more share of the healthcare provision market is given to private healthcare firms, the more costs will rise, especially as public services will end up short of fully qualified and trained doctors and nurses.


(1) = 10 Downing Street Press Office 11 Jul 2011 ‘Speech on Open Public Services’,http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/speech-on-open-public-services/

(2) = Bureau of Investigative Journalism 15 Jun 2011 ‘Conflict of interest fears in NHS shakeup plans’ by Emma Slater and Sophie Clayton-Payne , http://thebureauinvestigates.com/2011/06/15/half-on-some-consortia-have-links-to-virgin-group/  ; ‘At least half the board members of some GP consortia, the new bodies that will take over commissioning, have links with a single private healthcare company, an investigation by Bureau of Investigative Journalism, published in the Independent and Pulse Magazine can reveal.

Assura Medical, majority controlled by Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Group, has links with 50 per cent or more of the board members at three of the 52 first-wave GP pathfinders… More than 60% of those with private links were associated with Assura Medical. Most were GP members of Assura, meaning their practice had formed a joint company with it…. with profits split 50:50 between Assura Medical and member practices….At the Sutton Consortium in Surrey, 19 out of 25 board members are linked to Assura Medical. In the South Reading Consortium, three out of five board members are GP members of Assura, and two are employees of an Assura member practice. At the Calleva Consortium in Basingstoke, Hampshire, six out of 11 voting members on the consortium board have links with Assura, as does the non-voting board secretary..’

(3) = Health Service Journal 11 Jan 2009 ‘Mark Britnell quits NHS for private sector’,http://www.hsj.co.uk/news/policy/mark-britnell-quits-nhs-for-private-sector/5002713.article

(4) = guardian.co.uk 14 May 2011 ‘David Cameron's adviser says health reform is a chance to make big profits’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/may/14/david-cameron-adviser-health-reform

(5) = Health Service Journal 11 May 2011 ‘Mark Britnell: the NHS funding model is no longer 'resilient'’,http://www.hsj.co.uk/comment/opinion/mark-britnell-the-nhs-funding-model-is-no-longer-resilient/5029675.article

(6) = guardian.co.uk 13 May 2011 ‘Andrew Lansley's NHS reforms are unworkable, says review chief’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/may/13/andrew-lansley-nhs-reforms-unworkable ; ‘Prof Steve Field, chairman of the NHS Future Forum – set up last month to undertake the coalition's "listening exercise" – flatly rejects the health secretary's plan to compel hospitals to compete for patients and income, which he says could "destroy key services". The proposal, contained in Andrew Lansley's health and social care bill, has led key medical organisations to warn that it will lead to the breakup of the NHS and betray the service's founding principles.

In an interview with the Guardian, Field says Lansley's plan to make the NHS regulator Monitor's primary duty to enforce competition between healthcare providers should be scrapped. Instead it should be obliged to do the opposite, by promoting co-operation and collaboration and the integration of health services.

(7) = guardian.co.uk 28 Jun 2011 ‘NHS forum GP admits private patient doubts’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/jun/28/nhs-private-patients-doubts ; ‘The government is facing renewed pressure over its health bill after the GP who led its "listening exercise"…Steve Field acknowledged that the government would leave hospitals vulnerable to European Union competition law due to the presence of private patients in NHS hospitals.’

(8) = London School of Economics working health paper No.16  Does Hospital Competition Save Lives? Evidence from the English NHS Patient Choice Reforms’,  by Zack Cooper http://www2.lse.ac.uk/LSEHealthAndSocialCare/LSEHealth/pdf/Workingpapers/WP16.pdf

(9) = guardian.co.uk 16 Jun 2011 ‘A return to pre-NHS fear’, by Professor Allyson Pollock,http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jun/16/nhs-fear-tory-reforms-competition

(10) = See (9) above

(11) = Guardian 11 Jul 2011 ‘Ministers urged to let schools and hospitals fail to hasten reforms’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/jul/11/nhs-health

(12) = guardian.co.uk 21 Jun 2011 ‘US man stages $1 bank robbery to get state healthcare’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/21/verone-one-dollar-robbery-healthcare

(13) = Klein, Naomi (2007), 'The Shock Doctrine' , Penguin , London, 2007, Chapter 20

(14) = Greg Palast 29 Aug 2007 ‘“They wanted them poor niggers out of there.” – New Orleans Two years after’, http://www.gregpalast.com/%E2%80%9Cthey-wanted-them-poor-niggers-out-of-there%E2%80%9D/

(15) = Mail & Guardian (South Africa) 21 Dec 2007, 'Housing protests grip New Orleans', http://mg.co.za/article/2007-12-21-housing-protests-grip-new-orleans

(16) = Greg Palast 24 Aug 2010 ‘Five Years and Still Drowning - The New Orleans CNN Would Never Show You’,http://www.gregpalast.com/five-years-and-still-drowning-the-new-orleans-cnn-would-never-show-you/

(17) = guardian.co.uk 09 Nov 2010 ‘Ambulance drivers and firefighters could break away from national service under new plans’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/nov/09/ambulance-firefighters-mutualise-plans ; ‘Ambulance drivers, paramedics and firefighters could be given the right to breakaway from the national rescue service to form for-profit groups and run their services themselves, the Cabinet Office minister Francis Maude has said.

The government is to unveil a white paper that will give nearly all public sector workers a right to "mutualise" services, along the lines of a John Lewis model whereby employees own the service they work for, and can profit if it makes money.

Maude said that almost all public services – bar the police and the armed forces – could be mutualised. One ambulance service had already expressed an interest and he would also look at options for the fire service, he said.’

(18) = New Statesman blog 14 Apr 2011 ‘Video: Cameron slams “pointless reorganisation” of the NHS - The Prime Minister – then in opposition – addresses the Royal College of Nursing conference in 2009’, http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2011/04/royal-college-opposition

(19) = YouGov 20 Jan 2011 – Politics – The National Health,http://today.yougov.co.uk/politics/national-health

(20) = Comres 13 Jun 2011,http://www.comres.co.uk/systems/file_download.aspx?pg=796&ver=2

(21) = guardian.co.uk 21 Jan 2011 ‘Poll reveals widespread suspicion of NHS reforms’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/jan/29/nhs-private-companies-yougov-poll

Wednesday, July 06, 2011

Kelvin Mckenzie and the Murdoch press pretending to support ordinary people against the establishment is a joke

Kelvin McKenzie had a very amusing piece on the Guardian’s ‘Comment is Free’ website. While I have to admire his chutzpah in putting it to such a hostile audience his claims about Murdoch and his media empire are as much hot air as usual.

He claims

‘In the two decades he[Murdoch] has owned the channel [Sky], not one editor or journalist has suggested that he has interfered or even made suggestions about news coverage.’

Why would he need to when he can pick people like you, whose political views are his own exactly like his own as editors? (i.e spread hatred of immigrants, the unemployed and foreigners, plus talking up whichever of the two main parties he has a deal on further media deregulation and targeting the one he’s not currently made a deal with)

He then launches into an advert for Sky TV.

‘Sky is the giant of television. Sure it has the football but it has so much more. Even a cultural philistine like me finds myself drawn to Sky Arts, National Geographic and the History Channel. All have unexpected gems that you cannot find anywhere else.’

It’s hard to understand why the Guardian is giving Sky free advertising space here.

Kelvin then starts praising Murdoch’s supposed services to reducing unemployment in the UK.

‘Thank God for the Rupert Murdochs of this world. I wish there were hundreds more in our country. Unemployment would be wiped out at a stroke.’

Not sure what his evidence for that is. Murdoch backed Thatcher from the start. In opposition the Conservatives put out an election poster showing a dole queue with the words ‘Britain isn’t working’. At that point unemployment was over 2 million. By three years into Thatcher’s first term in office (helped there by the support of Murdoch and his Sun newspaper) unemployment was over 3 million. That doesn’t seem like a great job if you’re judging by results.

 If everyone was like Murdoch we’d certainly have no tax base at all due to his companies managing to pay almost nothing in tax on their vast profits and would go bankrupt like Greece.

His companies used tax avoidance to pay no net taxes at all in the UK in the 1990s  (no-one found this out till 1999). News Corporation recently paid $77mn in taxes to one Australian regional government after claiming for 7 years that it hadn’t been avoiding taxes.

I’ll grant that Murdoch’s firms do certainly provide employment for some dodgy ‘private investigators’ like Glenn Mulcaire, who has suddenly done a massive u-turn on his belief that no-one has any right to privacy, now that it affects him, asking reporters to respect his family’s privacy

McKenzie has more praise for Rupert

‘Why has Rupert a monopoly? Simple: nobody else had the guts, the nerve or the stunning management skill to take on the establishment.’

Allying himself with the leaders of the two main political parties alternately and getting his papers to tell people to vote for the one he currently has a deal on deregulation of media ownership with is “taking on the establishment”.

David Cameron and his other Bullingdon Club boys aren’t the establishment? Few people have been as close to "the establishment" as Rupert Murdoch and Kelvin McKenzie.

There’s also his media empire’s use of phone hacking and unusually long ranged mikes to target anyone who goes up against them.

Finally Kelvin says

‘Sky is not Fox News and I have my doubts that in leftwing, socialist, clapped-out Britain, the latter would work commercially or audiencewise.’

It wouldn’t work because it’s blatant propaganda and has had shows by people like Glenn Beck claiming Obama is racist against white people; and has edited out the applause from News reports on his speeches.

That’s apart from the fact that the last time the UK had a government that could be described as socialist was the Atlee government in 1945-1950.

I wonder what Kelvin might have said about a left wing or even vaguely liberal person saying Britain is “clapped out”. I’m guessing the phrase “Brit bashing” would be involved.

Why Gaddafi running out of fuel or money or being killed would not guarantee an end to the war in Libya

There have been reports that Gaddafi’s forces may be close to running out of fuel altogether, mostly assuming that this will force his side to surrender. This assumption is based on the North African campaigns in World War Two, in which Rommel was eventually forced to surrender due to lack of fuel for his tanks (1).

However, while that’s possible, there is no guarantee of Gaddafi’s forces surrendering if this happens. They might, but it’s as or more likely that without a negotiated peace they would switch to using guerrilla, insurgent, terrorist or resistance tactics (choose whichever term you prefer), as happened in Iraq after the defeat of it’s military. The fact there are no large numbers of foreign troops occupying Libya (only a few special forces trainers and spotters for airstrikes)  might make this less likely or a smaller insurgency than in Iraq, but it’s still a possibility that has to be taken into account.

Gaddafi’s forces seem to only control one functioning refinery – at Zawiyah – and the oil pipeline to it has been cut by the rebels (2). This should certainly mean that sooner or later his forces will run out of fuel for their tanks, truck mounted Grad rocket launchers, mobile artillery and pick up trucks. How soon (or not soon) is still anyone’s guess, as no-one knows how much oil Gaddafi has stored in reserve in barrels in Tripoli that could be sent to the refinery. (This also raises the question of why NATO hasn’t bombed the refinery and why it tried to persuade the rebels not to cut the pipeline – issues I’ll cover in a separate post).

The claims by Libyan defectors that Gaddafi was running out of fuel and money were made before the 13th of June though (and seem to mostly have been made by one defector – the former head of Libya’s central bank). He claimed that this would happen within days or a couple of weeks (3). So either it’s going to happen very soon, or else these claims are just based on guesses, wishful thinking, or are propaganda designed to encourage any of Gaddafi’s people hearing it to defect.

Fuel prices have certainly gone up massively in the parts of Libya controlled by Gaddafi’s forces (starting even in May), but it’s possible this is partly due to Gaddafi prioritising supplies to his armed forces (4) – (5).

Similarly reports that Gaddafi is running out of money are no guarantee of his regime falling, nor would an airstrike killing him (a strategy which has failed for over 100 days now and has never worked anywhere else). The assumption that Gaddafi running out of money will lead to the surrender of his forces assumes their primary motivation is money. That may well not be the case.

Assuming killing Muammar Gaddafi alone will end the civil war may be an assumption that turns out to be true, but could equally be as false as the assumption in Iraq that all the insurgents were Sunni and Ba’athist ‘dead enders’ who supported Saddam and that they would surrender when he was gone. In fact most of the insurgents weren’t hardline Ba’athists at all and many of them were Shia.

Bombing carried out by the US air force and the British RAF from 1991 to 2002, combined with sanctions, repeatedly failed to either kill Saddam or generate a military coup against him, so hopes of Gaddafi’s own forces, generals or ministers overthrowing him may be wishful thinking too.

US and NATO military planners are generally meant to plan for the “worst case scenario”, but instead most of their plans (and those of the governments giving them orders) are hugely optimistic and ignore the possible pitfalls and false assumptions involved. As a result most of them either fail, or only succeed at great cost in lives.

Saif Al Gaddafi has repeated that his father will accept elections overseen by international observers in return for a ceasefire (6) – (7). He may or may not be telling the truth, but given all the potential ways this war could drag on with heavy civilian casualties without a peace settlement, taking up the offer might be a sensible course for the rebels and NATO.

Even if it doesn’t work they at least get more Libyans and more people and governments around the world on their side by showing they were willing to try for a peaceful solution. Currently their refusal to accept any offer of negotiations that doesn’t include Gaddafi and his sons giving up power entirely before negotiations even begin is making a long civil war more likely. They have plenty of justifiable reasons to be angry at the Gaddafis’ dictatorship and to want rid of them, but the reality is that at least giving negotiations a try would be the best option.


(1) = The Economist 16 Jun 2011 ‘The colonel is running on empty’,http://www.economist.com/node/18837167?story_id=18837167

(2) = Channel 4 News 29 Jun 2011 ‘Tripoli Pipeline Attack ‘endgame’ for Gaddafi’, http://www.channel4.com/news/tripoli-pipeline-attack-signals-endgame-for-gaddafi

(3) = Bloomberg Business Week 5 Jul 2011 ‘Qaddafi Running Out of Money, Fuel, Ex-Central Bank Head Says’, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-06-13/qaddafi-running-out-of-money-fuel-ex-central-bank-head-says.html

(4) = See (1) above

(5) = Guardian.co.uk 05 May 2011 ‘Libya faces fuel crisis as oil supplies dwindle’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/05/libya-fuel-crisis-oil-supplies

(6) = Guardian 4 Jul 2011 ‘Gaddafi's son says western powers attacking Libya are 'legitimate targets'’,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/04/gaddafi-son-western-powers-legitimate-targets

(7) = Independent 16 Jun 2011 ‘Gaddafi would agree to supervised election, says son’, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/gaddafi-would-agree-to-supervised-election-says-son-2298234.html